Liu Si was very depressed about Qin Rui's self-assertion, if he wanted to absorb foreign capital to set up a fund, would he still need to do it? However, in the end, he didn't say anything, but made the decision to close the Shun Tak No. 1 Fund to absorb capital. At the same time www.biquge.info he instructed Qin Rui to purchase ten more sets of trading system terminals within two days.

In 1997, Hong Kong's financial market was still very lively, at this time, because the Hong Kong stock market was in a big bull market, the Hang Seng Index soared to 15,000 points, a record high, and the entire Hong Kong citizen class was speculating in stocks and real estate, and even a license to buy a house could speculate for 1.5 million Hong Kong dollars.

But even if it was lively, Master Liu, who had no capital in his hands, could only watch, but fortunately, on June 20, 1997, the Hang Seng Index broke through 15,000 points for the first time and closed at 15,154.40 points, and on July 31, 1997, the Hang Seng Index broke through 16,000 points for the first time and closed at 16,365.70 points. Therefore, there is enough time left for Liu Si to absorb chips, and there is probably more than a month to open a position and short the Hang Seng Index!

Of course, the bustle of Hong Kong's financial market is not as lively as Singapore's, Liu Shengqiang and his subordinates stared at the trading market, while watching the first variety show of the new Thai Finance Minister Thanon on TV with relish.

"Mr. Minister of Finance, as we all know, the Quantum Fund and a lot of international funds are besieging the Thai baht, so I wonder what strategy the government has to deal with this crisis?" The host is direct enough and starts with the topic, which makes many viewers who are watching this talk show like her very much.

In the sniper war between the Mexican peso and the pound, the role and fame of the Quantum Fund are famous all over the world, and now the crisis of the entire monetary system in Southeast Asia has forced it to link the initiator to the Quantum Fund.

Of course, it's not just speculation these days. Soros and many senior managers within the Quantum Fund speak from time to time, and the world has long recognized that the Quantum Fund is the initiator of the crisis in the Southeast Asian monetary system. What's more, in the past six months, Soros has criticized Thailand's internal economic policy, monetary policy and fiscal policy, and let the Thai baht depreciate in disguise.

The most recent comment on Thailand's economic, monetary and fiscal policy was on June 25, when Jones, an executive at the Quantum Fund, expressed his views in a memo titled "Deflationary Economics: What Keynes Had to Say About Thailand." Jones said that a country that would rather choose ultra-high interest rates than devalue its currency was "pure insanity," citing Keynes's stupid thinking about ancient Roman times.

"Beautiful hostess, I think the world is more convincing with facts. I wonder if the beautiful lady can call up the real-time trend chart of today's foreign exchange rate of Thai baht on the screen! I think beautiful young lady, you will definitely not refuse. "At present, there is still a discussion within the government about whether the baht should be depreciated or not, but Thanon will certainly not be like that royal puppet, with two answers, and unnecessary trouble caused by not being strict in his mouth.

This time the program was jointly planned by the government and Thai TV, and the real-time trend chart of the foreign exchange rate of the Thai baht was quickly called out.

"As you can see from the chart, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar has gradually returned to normal. The facts are in front of me, and this trend chart is more convincing than my clever tongue! In any case, he talked eloquently and dutifully to save Thailand's monetary system, "As the Minister of Finance, I guarantee that the Thai baht will never depreciate!" ”

"Mr. Minister, it looks like the government is dealing with policy again?" The moderator asked with a smile.

"Of course, the borrowing rate of international travel capital has been as high as 1,300%, which means that it is impossible for international travel capital to raise enough baht from our country. And now we still have $25 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and I believe that all those who want to make a lot of money in our country and fund companies will be bleeding. What's more, a few days ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to launch a bailout program to China to jointly deal with the conspiracy of international funds against the monetary systems of Southeast Asian countries. Ta Nong's words are true and false, and they are indeed very deceptive, "Evil cannot prevail over good, and if we all the people of the country are united, we will definitely be able to tide over the difficulties together!" ”

The position of the Bank of Thailand looks hawkish on the surface: even in late June, the central bank claimed more than $30 billion in reserves. However, it actually depletes a large amount of reserves through positions in the forward market, which is not shown on its balance sheet, and this approach fools almost all those who do not know the inside, including the inspectors of international travel and members of the Thai Government itself. But by constantly calling banks that have executed the government's sell orders in the forward market, the central bank has pieced together that its real reserves are dwindling at an alarming rate. In May alone, the Bank of Thailand used about $21 billion worth of reserves, or two-thirds of its total funds, a staggering proportion.

……

The talk show about Thailand's finance minister, Thanion, is still going on, but not many people are able to keep their eyes on it, and they all need to change or deepen their own policy strategies towards the Thai baht based on this talk show.

A few days ago, Thai Prime Minister Chawalit came out to stand for the Thai baht, and this gesture does not explain anything, but only increases the market's doubts about the Thai government's ability to maintain currency stability. Perhaps because the previous attempts to just talk and not practice were not effective, this time Thanon adopted a more practical approach, using actual data and facts to arouse investors' support for the baht.

During the morning trading session, the Thai baht was pulled back into the normal volatility range, but the market was generally pessimistic about the baht, and some analysts even pointed out. The Thai baht is not completely out of danger and is still in danger of being attacked. In fact, the baht is rising, but it is clear that this offensive is not as ferocious as the one in May.

However, the appearance of the Bank of Thailand and Finance Minister Thanon did affect the confidence of some investors in the Thai baht. Because the Thai baht represents a country, this is the confidence of this part of the investors. The Thai baht represents a country's home advantage for the Thai government, but the reality is that the performance of the Quantum Fund in the two currency sniper battles of the British pound and the Mexican peso has completely lost this advantage.

In this talk show, Thanon gave an explanation of the performance of the Quantum Fund in the two currency sniping battles of the British pound and the Mexican peso, saying: "To be honest, the performance of the Quantum Fund in the two currency sniping battles of the British pound and the Mexican peso is very exciting. However, the reason for the depreciation of the Mexican peso is the active depreciation of the public deficit and foreign exchange shortage caused by the social turmoil caused by the internal peasant uprising in Mexico. The depreciation of the pound was due to the policy of the British government and people at that time who did not want to join the euro. Therefore, the sniping of the Thai baht by the Quantum Fund is an immoral and unjust action made under the condition of the political stability and economic prosperity of the Thai government, then he is bound to fail! ”

His righteous rhetorical justification made many arbitrage and short-term investors decide not to go short and turn long anyway. This approach can be said to be the ultimate harm to others and himself! Therefore, after the Thai government later abandoned the linkage exchange rate system, the depreciation of the Thai baht exceeded the government's expectations, after all, they thought that the depreciation of the Thai baht would be about 10% like the Mexican peso and the British pound. In the end, in the face of these cheated tourists, the depreciation of the Thai baht reached a maximum of about 54%.

If you want to snipe at a country's currency, then you must consume the foreign exchange reserves of a country's central bank in the spot market, so after this Tanon talk show, Tiger Fund, Quantum Fund, European and American consortiums, and financial institutions joined forces to start fighting back in the foreign exchange spot market.

"25.92, 50 million baht."

"25.93, 100 million baht."

"25.945 billion baht."

"25.96, 1 billion baht."

……

Soon, Tiger Fund, Quantum Fund, European and American consortiums, and financial institutions attacked again in the spot market and the futures market, frantically selling the Thai baht, this time more crazy than any trading day, and I don't know if it was because of the heavy trading atmosphere at this time or the excitement of feeling that the Thai baht was about to depreciate.

The foreign exchange departments of commercial banks, which closely followed the changes in the exchange rate of the Thai baht, soon realized that the bears were still relentlessly shorting. This confused them because it was not a normal reaction, but because there was room for arbitrage and they were confident that the Bank of Thailand would intervene, they still traded the baht in an orderly manner according to the original strategy.

Time passed little by little until the Singapore Forex Exchange closed. But the war is not over, the battlefield has shifted from Singapore to the London Board of Trade, which has just opened, and the Chicago Board of Trade, which is about to open.

Finally, at around 11 o'clock in the evening Hong Kong time, the Thai baht was still forced by the continuous selling pressure to the 26 baht to the $1 mark, and there was even a price lower than that. With the decline in the spot market, the Thai baht forward contracts in the London and Chicago markets also fell below the threshold set by the Bank of Thailand, which means that investors are not optimistic about the future of the Thai baht.

Although the Bank of Thailand also has traders in operation, due to the pressure of the spot market, their rally in the futures market has become meaningless. The only way to solve the spot market is to allow the Bank of Thailand to pull up the exchange rate again through large-scale buying during the daytime trading hours, so that the two-pronged approach can once again pull the price of the futures market back to the normal fluctuation range.

Once again, the spot market lost liquidity.

But soon, there was a rise in the futures market, which was the entry of short-term arbitrageurs. Their strategy is very clear, that is, when the Thai baht in the spot market falls to the lowest point, they will take a position in the futures market, open a position at the lowest level, and then hedge a part of the profits through trading in different markets during the daytime trading hours.

Because when the spot market falls to the lowest level, the price of the futures market also falls to the lowest level, and at this position, the Bank of Thailand's traders will definitely do whatever it takes to stabilize the price, and at this time they will also have the least pressure. Traders in the spot market will not buy and sell the baht at a lower price, they will naturally be able to stabilize the price of the futures exchange at this price, and even if there is a lower price, the amount will not be too large, and the whole market knows that the Bank of Thailand will eventually intervene.

Short-term arbitrageurs use the well-known psychology to buy quickly when the spot exchange rate is about to fall to the lowest position, and then wait until the Bank of Thailand intervenes during the daytime trading hours and the entire exchange rate market rebounds to make corresponding profits. This strategy requires ultra-fast short-term trading, because the Bank of Thailand's futures traders will not allow this arbitrage to cut their profits, and will certainly buy as quickly as possible at the lowest point of the market, and then wait until daylight to get rid of it.

The competition between the two sides is the speed of the transaction and the judgment of the low.

But then again, both of these can be seen as market bulls, which together support the suppressed baht, but most of the positions on the part of the Bank of Thailand are based on hedging, and there is not much money used for this part of the arbitrage. Short-term arbitrageurs, on the other hand, need to fast in and out, and when the profit margin reaches a certain point, they must close their positions and leave the market, because this behavior is dancing on the blade after all.

The basis for supporting short-term arbitrageurs is that the Bank of Thailand must have enough capacity to support the baht in the spot market, otherwise everything is empty talk, which is why they want to do short-term.

In this way, the futures market slowly rose under the joint support of both short-term arbitrageurs and the Bank of Thailand, and even pulled the Thai baht back to the level of 26.15 in a short time, which was much higher than the lowest intraday price of 26.30.