The Philippines is located in southeast Asia, across the sea from Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia, it is composed of more than 7,000 islands, with a territory of more than 300,000 square kilometers, and is the world's largest coconut producer and exporter. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 ｉｎｆｏ

The Philippines has been in a deficit in foreign trade for a long time, and its foreign exchange reserves were only $200 million in the 1970s, and in the 1990s, they were only about $2 billion, which was only enough to cover the needs of imports for two months, and was less than the liquidity of a large American company in those years.

Capital inflows to developing countries reached a record $200 billion in 1996, and capital inflows to the Philippines are reflected in its current-account deficit.

In the 1993-1996 years, the Philippines had a current-account deficit of 4 percent of GDP. 3%, which is not a small number. The Philippines imports a large amount mainly for the electronics and garment industries, and because of the similarity of the product mix, the lack of differentiation, and the lack of advantages in labor costs, the exports of these industries have not brought any value-added because their raw materials are mainly imported, which offsets a large part of its profits.

On the one hand, the trade deficit is one thing, and on the other hand, like Thailand, the Philippines has financed the shortfall in investment through short-term capital flows, which are large and fast, opening the door for speculators to penetrate the room.

A country's wealth is roughly divided into two parts, one is the national government wealth and the other is the national wealth. Soros's shorting of the stock market and the reselling of gold are essentially aimed at national wealth, while sniping at a country's currency is aimed at national wealth.

In March 1997, Soros and other speculators won a big victory in Thailand, and due to the plate benefits and domino effect, Soros quietly transferred part of the profits earned on the Thai baht to the Philippines, where they were ambushed in the Philippine financial system, mainly in the stock, gold and foreign exchange markets.

Their wishful thinking is to attack one point and drive one side, the so-called pulling a trigger and moving the whole body, because in this way the force used is the least, and the profit obtained is the greatest.

Liu Si agrees with Soros's attack on the Philippine stock market, because in history, the three countries that speculators love and hate the most in this financial crisis are the Philippines, Taiwan, and Malaysia. Basically, the three countries didn't resist much, and they took the initiative to adopt the floating exchange rate system, that is, to take the initiative to depreciate.

The depreciation of the currency is exactly what the Philippines wants, because the government often takes measures to devalue the currency in order to alleviate the shortage of foreign exchange and reduce the trade deficit, for example, in 1990 its currency peso fell from 28 to 1 to the US dollar to 32 to 1 in 1991.

The exchange rate regime, and its rise and fall, is to a large extent not an economic instrument, but a political one.

Historically, as soon as Soros landed in the Philippines, the government took the initiative to depreciate the peso, but the early amplitude was relatively small, and in any case, as long as the depreciation could minimize the possibility of Liu Si being called on the margin.

Hawaii is famous for its beaches, waves, and volcanoes, and because Hawaii has an island-type climate, there are monsoons all year round, and the scenery is pleasant all year round, making it a rare tourist attraction.

On a private Waikiki beach, a sparkling sunset over the sea is sparkling and beautiful! The waves gently crash on the beach, a group of distinguished fellows lie on a beach chair, with the blue waves rolling in the Pacific Ocean in front and the lush pine forest in the back, listening to the sound of the waves, leisurely!

"George, you're so laid-back!" The speaker was Rodney Jones, an economist at the Quantum Fund's Asia office, who is loved and trusted by Soros.

"Rodney, why are you here?" In order to avoid suspicion, Soros has been remotely commanding by telephone during the Asian financial turmoil. I just don't know if he blushes a little when he appeals to the news media that he didn't cause the Asian financial turmoil.

"We're in trouble, George." In Thailand's stock market, futures and gold markets alone, the Quantum Fund has earned well over $5 billion, and this year's benefits have been overfulfilled, with Rodney Jones being the biggest contributor.

Soros immediately turned his head when he heard this, and said curiously: "What trouble you can't solve, just say it and listen." ”

"There are more than 130 billion US dollars of positions in the Thai baht forward contract that are not ours, if ......"

The position of more than 13 billion US dollars is enough to affect the direction of the Thai baht, which is not a strong currency, Soros, as a leader in the financial field, knows how powerful it is, and before Rodney can say the consequences, he said: "Find out who it is?" ”

"I'm sorry, George. Didn't find it! Rodney was also very depressed about the difficulty of the opponent, "The dealers, foreign exchange dealers, and investment banks selected by the other party are not our partners, and these dealers have rejected us by saying anything about protecting customer privacy and other things when they seize this big customer." ”

"Hmph, my Quantum Fund's face is so worthless?" With a cold snort, Soros stood up from his beach chair, no longer interested in enjoying the Hawaiian scenery, pondered for a while, and said, "What did you find to tell me?" ”

"First, it is confirmed that more than $10 billion of more than $13 billion is owned by one person; Second, the opponent is from Hong Kong, and it is found that all the users of the account or seat are traders from Hong Kong; Third, the other party has relatively strong funds, and the fluctuations in the first two days require at least $1 billion to stabilize the $10 billion position. If Rodney had been able to go through a broker or an investment bank, perhaps he would have known that his opponent's market was more than just a $10 billion baht forward contract.

"yes, I see. When we shorted the Thai stock market, did you find them? Soros is very concerned about this issue, after all, if the opponent can even calculate this step, he really doubts that there is a possibility of commercial espionage around him.

"No, I'm sure." Rodney was categorical, and he had defaulted on the baht forward contract this time, but he certainly had no one involved in the Quantum Fund's harvest of the Thai stock market.

"It's only $13 billion, let's go as planned." Soros thought about it and was not ready to suppress this unknown guy who picked up cheap in the back, after all, his position in the quantum fund has exceeded 20 billion US dollars, counting other guys, the entire market has more than 100,000 Thai baht forward contracts, and one lot of Thai baht forward contracts is worth 1 million US dollars.

There are not many forward Thai baht contracts in the whole market, at least more than $100 billion, and $13 billion is not too much, but not too much. According to Soros's own estimates, in the end, $13 billion will earn about $30 billion, compared to earning at least $15 billion, Soros's heart is bigger.

Soros even has some behavior of picking peaches behind the trees planted by his predecessors, but it is very difficult to stop the other party, which requires at least $1 billion in losses, and in the end, he may not be able to snipe the other party. And $13 billion is also a big incentive for himself to snipe the baht.

Time is still rolling forward, and it doesn't stop!

Returning to Thailand, on March 16, Thailand's Finance Minister Dr. Lim Il Kwang refuted rumours in the market that he and the central banker would resign. In fact, the rumors are no longer the market at this time.

Market confidence has not been boosted by this.

Immediately afterwards, the central bank once again made a stupid move, issuing $15 billion in Thai baht forward contracts, many of which will not expire until one year later, of which eighty or nine percent fell into the hands of speculators, and Soros alone held $4 billion in Thai baht forward short contracts, accounting for more than a quarter.

And taking this opportunity, Liu Si boldly increased his position by 3 billion US dollars again, which made Liu Shengqiang, the person in charge, heartbeat when he gave the order, after all, it is a position of 3 billion US dollars, and how many people can earn 3 billion US dollars in a lifetime.

The Bank of Thailand's actions are actually digging its own grave for the baht. People are just waiting to eat this piece of fat, but I didn't expect you to fall into the net. If the Thai government does not have traitors, then there must be stinky chess pieces, all the stinky chess games are played, and all the stinky moves are played.

In order to cooperate with Soros's actions, someone began to fall into the ground.

In April, Moody's, a well-known rating agency, downgraded the ratings of three major banks in Thailand, Ayutthaya, Kyoto and Thai Military, from A3 to B1, and from A2 to A3 two weeks ago.

Thailand's financial sector is in dire straits.

The collapse of the banking sector is already on the table, and all that remains is to strike the final blow on it.

The government that fell out of the slumber made the attackers more confident, because everything is advancing in the direction expected by the attackers, and the stinky chess made by the attackers at this time is to invite the internationally famous investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to give them advice, just right, they can take the opportunity to prescribe a dose of poison to the Thai government, if these American investment banks help Thailand, then they will lose their national integrity, because it is the Americans who defeat the Thai baht, if they help Soros, At most, it will give people a feeling that they are not good at learning and art, or they will not use it if they are not good at learning and art, but if they humbly ask for advice. Who will they help? The answer is self-explanatory, this is a plot with the tiger.

Soros's philosophical philosophy is the famous reflection theory, if the development of things gives you an idea of a trend, then you will react to that trend according to that idea and strengthen that trend. The fall of the Thai Baht has made him see the fragile side of the Thai Baht, and he will make the Thai Baht even more vulnerable.