In May, Soros, who earned his first pot of gold, made a comeback and launched an even more fierce attack on the baht. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info

Attack! Attack!! Attack!!!

Put your position to the maximum!

Soros has frantically increased his position, and Chawalit has decided to adopt Lim's suggestion and use the central bank's internal foreign exchange reserves to buy Thai baht in the futures market and spot market to stabilize the exchange rate.

May 2, the first trading day after the Labor Day holiday and the last trading day of the week, is a crucial date. If the Thai baht exchange rate can stabilize today, there will be much less pressure on Monday next week. Perhaps the current exchange rate crisis of the Thai baht may return to calm.

"It's up to 25 baht to 1 dollar!" When Liu Si arrived in the trading room with his bodyguards at 10 o'clock, he heard a noisy noise, and the traders shouted the number 25 in surprise.

They are talking about the real-time exchange rate of the Thai baht in the Singapore currency market, because the two largest cash markets, the London and Chicago exchanges, have closed trading, so the real-time quotes can only look at the Singapore currency market that is still in trading hours.

When he figured out the news, Liu Si also muttered: "It's really fierce!" ”

The exchange rate between the Thai baht and the US dollar has remained at 25 baht to 1 US dollar all year round, although the Central Bank of Thailand has set a floating range of 4% of the upper and lower ranges, i.e. 26 to 24 baht per US dollar is an acceptable range.

But the Thai baht was still 26/21 to the US dollar yesterday, while the last price of the Thai baht on the closed London and Chicago stock exchanges was 26/16 to 1 US dollar. All of a sudden, the Thai baht rose to the normal price of $25 against the US dollar, which means that almost as soon as the market opened, the Bank of Thailand suddenly made the Thai baht exchange rate soar by 4%.

In the eyes of the general public, they are accustomed to seeing the stock market, block trading market and other securities markets rise and fall by 10%, 15%, 20% or even 50% at every turn, and the figure of 4% is not conspicuous. But in reality, because the exchange rate is related to the investment of international capital in a country, these funds amount to hundreds of billions of dollars, or even more. Moreover, due to the existence of a minimum of 20 times and a maximum of 400 times leverage in the foreign exchange market, 4% is a very large change ratio.

After a brief cabinet meeting on May 2, the Thai government passed an important resolution: the first step was to form a coalition with Singapore and use a huge amount of about $12 billion to absorb Thai milling; The second step is to follow Mahathir's strategy and tactics in 1994 and use an executive order to strictly prohibit local banks from lending to Soros's army; The third step is to raise the interest rate sharply, from about 10% to 1,000 to 1,500%.

Outside and inside, it is not a good choice at any time. Outside or inside? The Thai government has chosen a two-pronged approach, with Annai using more than 1 trillion baht to enter the stock market to stabilize the market, and at the same time issuing loans to domestic enterprises to revitalize the domestic economy; Externally, the central bank will use its internal foreign exchange reserves to enter the foreign exchange spot market and futures market to buy Thai baht to stabilize the exchange rate.

To be honest, the Thai government is really not popular enough to swallow elephants, and if you choose Annai, it may be a very good choice. Malaysia, Taiwan, Singapore, and the Philippines are the fastest economic recovery in Southeast Asia, because they chose Ann Nai in the '97 Asian financial crisis and took the initiative to depreciate their currencies. However, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries have once again entered the rhythm of the decade when Japan disappeared, and another wave of economic improvement during the 08 financial crisis has been roaring, prompting the Thai economy to be hit into the cold valley again.

The Thai government has a big heart, in the early and mid-90s, the Thai government wanted to make Bangkok a financial center far beyond Singapore, and the financial crisis they still want to grasp both sides, I don't know how to say, is it stupid or responsible?

"Boss, the Thai government has made a strong effort, and our account may be appropriately reduced!" Liu Shengqiang is very responsible, and has always been worried that the position of more than 100 billion US dollars with 50 times leverage will be forcibly closed, especially the more than 90 billion US dollars in the prepayable margin account, and he has been sleeping in a somewhat stuffy trading room for nearly 6 months, no matter what season it is.

"The best is yet to come!" Liu Si smiled.

"What's the show?"

"How much foreign exchange do you think Thailand has?" Liu Si took out a copy of the financial securities newspaper he bought at the newsstand this morning and handed it over, "At present, the Thai government is still desperately implementing a loose fiscal policy, and more than 100 billion baht is a nightmare for the Thai baht!" ”

"And the Bank of Thailand has lost its foreign exchange reserves for nine consecutive months. So far, their response has been to intervene in both the spot and forward baht markets and allow interest rates to be raised by 300 basis points.

So far, the fundamental situation is fragile. The debt, real estate boom that began in the 80s of the 20th century has been shattered, which will trigger an imminent banking crisis. It is estimated that 16 per cent of loans from banks and financial companies are non-performing loans. In fact, every listed real estate company has a heavy debt burden, and they are technically insolvent. There are no real estate transactions taking place so far.

"In addition, the liberalization of foreign debt markets by liberalization, which began in 1992, led to a sharp increase in private sector external borrowing. Private sector debt has risen from $10 billion at the end of 1990 to $85 billion today. Among them, the debt of the banking sector is $40 billion, the external debt of companies is $35 billion, in addition to the fact that foreigners hold about $10 billion of commercial paper denominated in Thai baht. In stark contrast, the Bank of Thailand is said to have only about $36 billion in foreign exchange reserves. The banking and debt crises were accompanied by a deterioration in the current account. Thailand's current account deficit was 8 per cent of GDP in 1996 and showed no signs of improvement in 1997. The sharp appreciation of the US dollar (the baht is pegged to a basket of currencies, 83% of which is in US dollars) and the competitiveness of traditional export sectors such as textiles and footwear (due to rising wage costs and competition from China) have led to the lowest point in more than 20 years in Thai exports. ”

"Misfortune doesn't come alone. In 1996, the Banharn government also lost control of fiscal policy. Government spending rose by 30 per cent in 1996, the largest increase in the last 20 years. At the same time, Thailand's fiscal situation has deteriorated significantly as a result of slow economic growth leading to a lack of fiscal revenue. Thailand's fiscal surplus was 3 per cent of GDP in 1995 and its fiscal deficit will be 2 per cent of GDP by 1997. Although the new finance minister, Amnuay, tried to rein in the growth of spending, the Chavalit government still expected a 23 per cent increase in spending in 1997. All in all, there has never been a better time to short the Thai Baht. ”

Liu Shengqiang's eyes lit up, and he suggested excitedly: "Boss, why don't we increase some more positions!" ”

Liu Dashao turned his head, pointed to a display screen hanging in front of him with his right hand and said, "Do you see something?" ”

Liu Shengqiang is very familiar with this house, and at a glance, he knows that the screen is showing a real-time dynamic chart in the Singapore foreign exchange futures market. ”

"That's right, the Central Bank of Thailand has just entered the market. You know what? This time, they will take off their underwear and use it as a sniper for European and American capital. We're definitely going to get in, but at least not now! Liu Si pointed out the country with a masterful appearance, and the most incredible thing was that he frightened Liu Shengqiang, "There is no news to support the news that Thailand will abandon the fixed exchange rate policy, but it is all the information that Thailand is going all out and resisting desperately, so the market will have the power to fight back, and this power to grab a rebound will exist at any time." Let's just watch as spectators now. Attacking a national currency is not so easy, and the Thai government has made a move. It is believed that soon European and American capital and international travel capital will make corresponding moves, whether it is concocting news that is unfavorable to the market, or increasing the efforts to short the Thai baht, or others. ”

History has not changed, although the Bank of Thailand entered the market to bail out, but market confidence has been lost, and the Bank of Thailand is unable to support itself, and it is completely irresistible.

On May 2, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar ended at 25 and 22:1. On the second trading day of May, the news of the Singapore foreign exchange market on May 5 showed that in the foreign exchange market across Southeast Asia, the total daily trading value of the Asian currency forward foreign exchange market reached about 20 billion US dollars, of which the Thai bowl trading volume grew the fastest.

The gradual growth of the baht trading volume is the result of the Bank of Thailand's entry into the bailout and the purchase of baht and baht forward contracts. This gamble is very tortuous, the exchange rate of the Thai baht in the foreign exchange market has been fluctuating around 25 baht to 1 US dollar, and Liu Si, who already knows about it, is naturally not interested in staring at the market in this sullen house.

Wave theory enthusiasts have a C wave or a third wave, and its ability to kill and fall is the most ruthless, but they don't know that it is the wave theory that makes everyone believe that there is a more violent wave of killing and falling, so everyone operates according to this method, which causes a more violent wave of killing and falling.

This is also the theory of reflection.

Don't look at the fact that the Thai baht exchange rate seems to be stable now, but the speculators led by Soros are hiding in the corner and sneering. Worried that they could not find a rival in the foreign exchange market, they happily accepted the gift of the Bank of Thailand. Even in order to get more positions from the Thai government, they even slowly adapted to the market and quietly took over the Central Bank of Thailand.

Time ticks forward.

May 5 - 25/38 to 1 US dollar

May 6 - 25.10 to 1 U.S. dollar

May 7 - 24/95 to 1 dollar

May 8 - 24.79 to 1 dollar

May 9 - 24/35 to 1 US dollar

A week passed slowly, Soros and other European and American capitals hid in the corner and laughed, while Chawalit summoned cabinet members to gather in the conference room of the Thai Prime Minister's Office with sad faces to discuss the issue of foreign exchange reserves. In a week's time, the Bank of Thailand spent more than half of its $14 billion foreign exchange reserves to buy Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot futures market.

$14 billion spent one week, so how much will it cost next week?

Chawari doesn't know?

Lin Ritachi doesn't know?

Talisaa doesn't know?

……

None of them know?

The Thai government has come to a crossroads, is it abandoning the fixed exchange rate? Or will it continue to deplete foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate?