Chapter 178: The Asian Financial Crisis III
Of course, for Liu Si, the experiences of Thailand and the Philippines did not make any waves for him, even if he knew the heavy damage and harm of the future crisis. www.biquge.info Moreover, from the bottom of my heart, the financial crisis in many Asian countries is also an opportunity for the development of the mainland in the future. If there is no European and American capital after the Asian financial crisis, it will be transferred from the Asian Four Tigers and Four Tigers to the Chinese mainland, which has a large number of preferential policies and demographic dividends. China's economic success in the future is likely to be greatly reduced.
July 5, 1997, the first Sunday after the collapse of the Thai baht, was also the day of closure for many financial exchanges. This day was also the day when Liu Shengqiang returned to Hong Kong from Xinjiapo with his general subordinates.
The weather was good, the sun was shining, the sky was blue, the only uncomfortable thing was that the weather was a little hot. Liu Dashao was wearing a suit of beach shorts and short sleeves, and some of them stood out from the crowd under the protection of a group of big men in suits and leather shoes, looking at many beautiful women in cool clothes in the pick-up area.
At present, the families who take the plane are good, and there are many beautiful girls who come to pick up the plane, and Liu Si is a feast for his eyes. But the only thing that is depressing is that I have stood in the pick-up area for a long time, and I have some feet.
"Damn, why haven't you arrived yet?" Complaining depressedly, he impatiently raised his hand to look at the mechanical watch worth tens of thousands of dollars on his left hand, and the hour and minute hands pointed to the scale marks of 11 and 23 respectively.
"Brother Chen, do you confirm that Liu Shengqiang called you last night to inform you that he arrived at this time today?" It had been almost 40 minutes since Liu Dashao came to the pick-up area, so he was a little skeptical that the captain of his escort team had misheard Liu Shengqiang's phone call last night.
"Boss, I am very sure that what Mr. Liu announced on the phone last night was that he arrived at 11:10 today." Chen Zhenheng and Liu Si have been getting along for several months, and they are still very familiar with their boss, so they hurriedly said that they were not responsible, so they almost raised their hands and swore an oath.
"Why don't we come back after lunch?" I haven't had the habit of eating breakfast all the time, and my stomach is naturally a little hungry.
Chen Zhenheng couldn't say it, "Boss, I'm afraid this is not good!" ”
"It's such a happy decision, let's go, let's have a big meal!" Liu Si was hungry, he was alive, and he didn't treat anyone badly to his stomach, he had already decided to eat a big meal. Even, if I saw Liu Shengqiang again, I would have thought of the excuse that I didn't pick up the airport at the point -- to pick up the dust for Liu Shengqiang and the others, and book a big meal.
"Boss ......"
Liu Si, who was about to leave, heard a familiar voice, turned around a little awkwardly, and followed the voice. "I'll take it" Liu Dashao was stunned at that time, and nearly 10 traders he liked were in his eyes, all in suits and leather shoes, and they looked like dogs. But I saw a 28-inch suitcase dragged by both hands, a satchel around his neck, and a small handbag with his teeth. That image, Liu Dashao completely collapsed!
"Brother Chen, take a few brothers and drive the car over in the parking lot." Liu Si instructed, "The rest of the brothers will help get things together." ”
Liu Si also stepped forward to take a suitcase in Liu Shengqiang's hand, pulled it, and asked as he walked, "Brother Liu, you won't empty the new home slope!" ”
"That's not true, so I bought some Xinjiapo specialties." Liu Shengqiang replied while sorting out his image.
Xinjiapo is a big fart place, there are local products? Liu Dashao said why he hadn't heard of it, "What is available in Xinjiapo, isn't it sold in Hong Kong?" ”
"That's different, these things are what I brought for my relatives and friends, this is my heart." Liu Shengqiang responded with a smile and explained carefully.
"Whatever. But you didn't buy a toilet, did you? Suddenly remembered a stalk, Liu Si joked with a smile.
"Why buy a toilet? However, boss, I also brought you a gift. ”
"What kind of gift did you buy me, tell me about it!" Liu Si was very curious about what kind of gift his subordinate had brought to the boss.
"A tracksuit." Seeing the car coming, Liu Shengqiang walked towards the No. 6 boarding area and said, "I hope the boss will go out to exercise more in the future." ”
Liu Si pulled the suitcase, glanced at Liu Shengqiang, and said secretly, "Is he hurting me or hurting me?" ”
"Don't talk about that, I'm here at the Peninsula Hotel today to wash the dust for you."
On the way to The Peninsula, Liu Si did not talk to Liu Shengqiang about the Xinjiapo side, but talked to him about some analysis and current situation on the Hong Kong side.
"Brother Qiang, what do you think of the situation in Hong Kong?" Liu Si's plan to follow European and American capital investment in the coming days remains unchanged. However, the executor of this plan has not yet been decided, after all, participating in the attack on the Hong Kong dollar this time is definitely not happy for an elite of financial Hong Kong people. But from the bottom of his heart, he hopes that the executor is Liu Shengqiang, because he is trustworthy and basically knows the roots. And in order to assess Liu Shengqiang's thoughts, Liu Si asked this question.
"Boss, you told me about the macroeconomic situation in Asia a few months ago, and I saw the Thai baht crash a few days ago. Combined with the futures and spot trading conditions of the currencies of some Asian countries in Xinjiapo, I am afraid that Soros has targeted the whole of Asia. The Philippines and Malaysia, which are in the same situation as Thailand, will definitely meet in the next six months. ”
As the four tigers, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and Xinjiapo, I personally think that the situation is not optimistic. The spot trading of Hong Kong dollar, South Korean won, Japanese yen and new Spod dollar is expanding day by day, and the corresponding currency futures market position is increasing rapidly. This also shows that European and American capitals led by Soros are attacking the Hong Kong dollar, South Korean won, yen, and Xinjia Spo yuan, and they will not let go of the Asian Four Little Tigers and the Four Little Tigers. Moreover, the collapse of the Thai baht has made Soros's personal appeal unprecedented, and international travel funds are holding huge amounts of cash waiting for Soros's next attack signal. Of course, Hong Kong is safe at the moment, and it will be safe until the Asian tigers are conquered. ”
"That's how you see it! Very good! So do you think we should follow Soros's ass behind and attack Hong Kong? Liu Si's eyes stared intently at Liu Shengqiang's facial expression, in order to judge whether he would have two thoughts about attacking Hong Kong.
As a financial elite, he knew the impact of the Hong Kong dollar crash on Hong Kong's economy, which was catastrophic, so he didn't want the boss to attack the Hong Kong dollar. Finally, he gritted his teeth and said angrily, "Boss, I support the attack on the Hong Kong dollar." Personally, I think that the Hong Kong dollar will not be able to resist the attack of European and American capitals led by Soros, and the final result is the collapse of the Hong Kong dollar. Since the Hong Kong dollar has collapsed, it is better for us to make a profit than to let European and American capital make money. ”
Liu Si was a little surprised, and Liu Shengqiang, a Hong Kong financial elite, supported his attack on the Hong Kong dollar. But if you think about it in a flash, it's also true, a person is not as noble as he thinks, let alone a capitalist. This is also difficult for Soros to attack the Hong Kong dollar, and some local capital in Hong Kong actually lent Hong Kong dollars and stocks to be generous.
"Brother Qiang has such thoughts, I am very pleased. However, I personally think that the prospects of the Hong Kong dollar are not as bad as imagined! Since Liu Shengqiang chose to stand on his side, Liu Si confirmed in his heart that the executor of shorting the Hang Seng Index this time was Liu Shengqiang. And in order to buy people's hearts, he plans to inform Liu Shengqiang of part of his plan and a hope.
"Boss, what do you think, tell me about it." Liu Shengqiang is very convinced of Liu Si, just look at the current profits of Xinjiapo in currency futures.
"Okay, then I'll share my personal opinion. Does Hong Kong have a disadvantage at the moment? The first is the previous plan of the Patten government to hollow out Hong Kong and disgust the mainland. First of all, the expansion of the civil service and the unlimited increase in the salaries and benefits of civil servants have made the civil service bloated and extravagant in Hong Kong. This plan seems to be serving the people, but in fact it is serving the government, and it has left two problems for the future SAR government - first, the layoffs will be resisted and will lose the support of the people; Second, salary cuts can lead to instability in the civil service. In the long run, if Hong Kong's finances are drained, Hong Kong's fiscal deficit will inevitably result.
Secondly, it will build huge engineering projects, set up clever projects, and hollow out Hong Kong. Before he was ready to leave office, the 28th Governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten, who had always been picky, suddenly became "enthusiastic" about the construction of engineering projects, and proposed a series of large-scale construction plans, such as the construction plan of the new airport, the huge reclamation project, and the construction plan of the Cyberport. Of course, the construction of large-scale construction projects cannot run away from the fat shortage of British businessmen, and through uncontrolled construction, it can also skillfully realize the great transfer of wealth, and transfer the wealth of the Hong Kong government to the pockets of the British.
You must know that these projects consume a huge amount of money in Hong Kong, and a large part of the funds are not government revenues, but loans, which in essence expand the money stock and move the HKMA's capital reserves. One of the most obvious is the Hong Kong International Airport, the initial budget was 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, in 1997 its ten sub-projects were not completed, and the final cost was as high as more than 150 billion Hong Kong dollars, how many black holes in between, who knows? To be honest, these measures have shaken the foundation of Hong Kong, and it is foreseeable that it will be much more convenient for Soros to attack the Hong Kong dollar in the future.
Finally, the Hong Kong dollar is a special currency, it is not issued by the government, but by the commercial banks designated by the government, and the issuing bank has to deposit the equivalent amount of foreign exchange into the Exchange Fund set up by the government, so after the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, the issuing bank must deposit the equivalent amount of Hong Kong dollar deposits into the Exchange Fund when increasing the issuance of Hong Kong dollars, and the Exchange Fund will purchase the equivalent amount of foreign exchange in the market at any time as a reserve for Hong Kong dollars. Under this system, the Hong Kong dollar is vulnerable to attack.
Under the linked exchange rate system, the movement of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar is controlled within a certain range, if the Hong Kong dollar appreciates, so that the US dollar is lower than 7.8, the non-note-issuing bank can buy the US dollar at a price lower than 7.8 Hong Kong dollars in the market, and then sell it to the note-issuing bank at a price of 7.8, exchange Hong Kong dollars for the Exchange Fund, arbitrage the interest rate differential, the US dollar decreases in the market, the Hong Kong dollar increases, and the Hong Kong dollar returns to 7.8. And vice versa, thus achieving the relative stability of the Hong Kong dollar. Because of the spread, it will inevitably bring arbitrage speculation, and the sense of smell of capital has always been very keen, and a large number of arbitrage funds have flocked to it. ”