Chapter Eighty-Eight: The Secret Meeting of the Sniper Baht Five
Dim lighting, soft music, bewitching red wines, and leather seats, paired with high-end mahogany counters, plus famous wines lined with shop windows behind the counters. www.biquge.info From French red wine to German dark beer, to Russian XO, to China's Moutai, everything is available here.
It's a bar, a private bar located in a separate estate just outside of Bangkok. There were no bewitching girls of all kinds, deafening disco music, crazy shaking, white bodies, flickering lights, and the smell of tobacco and alcohol in the air.
A circle of people sat around, dressed in expensive clothes, most of them custom-made as much as more than 100,000 pounds, sitting quietly, like gentlemen. They were laughing and laughing, but they seemed to be out of place in the environment, perhaps telling the story of the bar's eclecticism.
"George, welcome to Bangkok. But you came quietly without notifying us, and if you hadn't called for a party in the morning, I'm afraid we would still be in the dark. John Reed, president of Citibank, shook the wine glass in his hand, tasted the pure red wine of the French estate and smiled.
"Most of you don't know about it, so if you want to come to Thailand, the government shouldn't know that I, Soros, are here." Soros is not surprised why the president of Citibank is here, and the White House can be in that position, Citi is bleeding profusely. As a pawn, this time the Wall Street boss spoke, no one is allowed to rush to the front line, and he is not here when he is old!
"George, you're amazing, don't forget to treat yourself when you're famous." An executive at Bank of America was in a good mood and joked with a smile.
Many gentlemen here who are worth more than 100 million US dollars are in a good mood, they have been coming to Thailand or Southeast Asia in person for some time, and after several months of research, the economies of Southeast Asian countries are indeed in trouble. I think that after this sniping, maybe the value will increase several times.
"The pound pushed me out, it was me again in Mexico, and it's still me now. Which of you likes to be famous, why don't you do this job? "Soros, the old man, is helpless, if he had a choice, he shouldn't have taken over the responsibility of charging when sniping at the pound. Of course, he also knows that if he hadn't been charging ahead, the current size of the Quantum Fund might not be comparable to that of the Tiger Fund.
"Don't, don't...... George Soros's signature is much better than our name. ”
"Yes, yes, yes...... George, you have a big responsibility......"
"George, don't pick on the key moment, or you'll ......"
……
His fame is the result of everyone's efforts, and if he wants to die well, he has to be a pawn on the surface.
The old guy was distraught and smothered a bottle of '82 Lafite, which may not be the most delicious, but it was expensive. Let these guys bleed, he felt a lot better, "Okay, everyone, let's get down to business!" ”
Citibank is not the largest financial organization here, such as Morgan, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and other financial institutions are far more than Citigroup. But John Reed was the highest-ranking person here, so he began to throw bricks.
"Investment in East Asia accounts for more than half of private capital, and much of this capital is in industry, that is, using Southeast Asia's cheap labor and cheap raw materials to produce products that are exported to the capital home country for high profits; But more capital is not to invest in industry, but some hot money. More than half of the hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign capital flowing into the eight Asian countries this year have entered in the form of equity investment, that is, into the stock market......." John Reed said eloquently, basically explaining the current economic situation in Thailand and Southeast Asia, and the crisis is the first thing to analyze.
Unfortunately, it is the bankers and speculators in Europe and the United States who see this, not the governments and people of Southeast Asia.
In 1993, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Singapore's 38-year-old Minister of Information Yeo Wing Boon was shocked: "Asia will become the true leader of the world." ”
At the Fourth European and East Asia Economic Summit, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew boasted that the average growth rate of the Asian economy would reach 6 percent over the next 30 years, and if Japan is excluded, Japan is in the midst of a period of healing after the bursting of the bubble of yen appreciation forced by the United States. ), will reach more than 7%, and by 2050, East Asia will account for 40% of the world's total economic value.
……
It's not just the political leaders in Southeast Asia who are full of information about the future of Asia, and the optimism comes not only from the political leaders, but also from the major news outlets.
The US "Newsweek" said that in fact, East Asia does not have to wait that long, as long as it is by 2000, East Asia's GDP will account for more than 30 percent of the world's total.
Another magazine, Asian Studies (the name of this journal seems to be engaged in intelligence gathering. He said, "The rapid development of the East Asian region will have a great impact on the United States, and Asia has become an important bridgehead for the world economy, which is the biggest change in 50 years and the next century." ”
A Taiwanese engineer said, "In the past, when we worked for Americans, we would say, yes, sir! Now, when Americans come to Taiwan to work, we will say, yes, sir!"
East Asia seems to be a little flustered about its economic success. But, sometimes you have to listen to the sound when you are obedient, and it is not necessarily a good thing for people to praise you, haven't you heard of the trick of "killing and killing"? While touting you, quietly stab the knife.
Take Thailand as an example, in the early 90s, Thailand quickly completed the process of industrialization by attracting a lot of foreign capital, but this capital could only transfer the cost of production, knowing that Thailand itself is not a large consumer market, so the products produced are destined to be exported again.
What's worse is that not all the money is invested in the production sector, and a considerable amount of money is invested in Thailand's securities and real estate market. This is bound to form a bubble, just like the book of a few years ago.
Since the year before (95), Thailand's exports have been hit hard by the appreciation of the Thai baht. Last year, export growth rose by only 3% over the previous year, which means that export-led economic growth has peaked. The real estate market has created a huge bubble, and it is said that $20 billion worth of houses in Bangkok cannot be sold. You have to know what supports the real estate industry, it is the bank's loans, and these houses that cannot be sold will inevitably become bad debts of the bank. With the collapse of the real estate sector, the banking system is also at great risk.
Looking at Bangkok's stock market, the bubble that has been constrained by the real estate market since last year has begun to languish. If there is no money to be made in the stock market, the new capital will be reduced, and without the support of new funds, it will be difficult for listed companies to raise funds to continue production, which will deal a fatal blow to production and even consumption.
The most important point is that when the Thai economy is stagnant, foreign capital will naturally look for the next economic growth point. In the case of the depreciation of the Yuan and the sluggish domestic economy, these foreign capital cannot get corresponding returns in Thailand, so they will withdraw from Thailand and invest in China instead.
"What do you think?" It is impossible for Soros to snipe at the Thai baht alone, so it is especially important for all the bankers here (although some investment bankers) to support it.
Soon, a tacit understanding was reached between them. After working together for many years, they know Soros's style and his personality.
"Come on, George, we've got your back." Bankers say.
"I'm also asking for some information from Thai banks." Soros has long known every big Thai bank, but he wants to know as soon as possible which bank will fail first, and he can brag about it in the news media and live an addiction to a soothsayer's prediction.
"What bank details do you need?" Bangkok Bank? Thai Hua Bank? Krung Thai Bank? Brokers? Big city? Military Bank of Thailand? Bangkok Comptoir? First Bank of Thailand? Bank of Kyoto? ”
"All of them, all of them! It is advisable to have access to the bad debt information of these banks. ”
The bankers smiled knowingly, because if these banks in Thailand were brought down by Soros, they would be the last ones to eat the meat, and they would be able to take advantage of the opportunity to buy them up, like vultures in the sky, swooping down and taking out some carrion from the corpses.
A feast is about to begin.
A few days after this secret meeting, although Soros has left, the people of the Quantum Fund have prepared the bullets. Because Thailand's financial market has long been opened, allowing foreign banks to operate Thai baht business, the Thai baht under the capital account can also be freely convertible, and since 1990, the Thai government has abolished foreign exchange controls, and even the underground bank channel can be omitted.
At the end of 1996, the Thai stock market was not shocked, and the trading volume was not very sufficient, but the latent predators had already begun to act, and some heavyweight stocks were inexplicably pulled up and beaten by large funds. This is a quantum fund quietly building a position in the spot market. At the same time, the short futures positions of the Thai index suddenly increased, and the short positions were held by foreign funds, among which the quantum fund had the largest position.
On the other hand, the Thai baht is also inexplicably tightening in the capital market, and the dollar is quietly starting to rise. In the previous life, the inexplicable shortage of the Thai baht in the market had nothing to do with Liu Si, but it was closely related in this life.