At this stage, British Prime Minister John Major has a temporary residence in the Admiralty Building in addition to 10 Downing Street. Pen % fun % Pavilion www.biquge.info

It's not that he's extravagant and wasteful, but because on February 7 last year, No. 10 Downing Street was attacked by the worst attack in history -- the IRA~ parked a van with mortar shells in Whitehall, the seat of the British government~, and as a result, it caused an explosion in the backyard of No. 10 Downing Street, which not only shattered all the windows of the cabinet room, but also left a large crater.

At the time of the incident, John Major was holding a cabinet meeting in the cabinet room, and he was one step closer to death than his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher, who had a similar experience.

Therefore, the British Prime Minister, who had a false alarm, was forced to move to the Admiralty Building to temporarily live in order to carry out maintenance works at 10 Downing Street.

Since John Major is not currently at 10 Downing Street, he should be at the Admiralty Building.

Thinking of this, Norman Lamont took a team of advisers and went straight to the Admiralty building to convince the other party that the only way out was to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (EFEM) if it could not be delayed any longer.

When he arrived at the Admiralty building, Norman Lamont waited another 15 minutes to see John Major, who was still in a state of calm and calm at this time, and did not take Britain's heavy losses in the capital markets seriously.

Not surprisingly, John Major's starting point for thinking about the problem was politics ~ governance. He first asked whether there was room for further financial diplomacy between Britain and Germany.

"It is impossible for the Germans to consider our situation, and there is no time to negotiate." Norman Lamont shook his head with a wry smile, "Today, in order to ensure that the exchange rate of the pound does not fall below the lower limit of 2.7780 German marks, we have given tens of billions of dollars to taxpayers to speculators on the opposite side of the capital market. According to this trend, Britain's foreign exchange reserves will be depleted before the Germans can be negotiated. ”

After listening to this analysis, John Major also couldn't sit still, "Several other ministers will be here soon, and everyone can discuss their views on unilateral withdrawal from the European exchange rate mechanism from different perspectives." ”

Norman Lamont understood that his boss was afraid of being responsible, so he brought the other cabinet members to share the political ~ political risks.

The ensuing meeting was a tortuous process, with ministers debating whether Britain could withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism without offending other European partners. If you do withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, do you need to resign?

Time passed like this, and it was not until one of the ministers said, "We will all move forward and retreat together," that John Major lifted his spirits - and that was what he wanted.

With this consensus, a decision was quickly made at the meeting of the Admiralty Building.

John Major is still on his luck and insists on a second rate hike – another 3 percentage points from 12% – before announcing his unilateral withdrawal from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, as a last-ditch effort to save the pound.

However, the capital markets were indifferent to this news - and it is not true, because the pound was sold even more frantically.

Seeing this, Norman Lamont decided that John Major was naïve. The more Britain struggled in this way, the more it showed that it was a poor donkey, and the speculators were provoked to go berserk.

Now that the tide is over, Norman Lamont began to talk about the imminent unilateral withdrawal from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, that is, he began to inform the finance ministers of other European countries about the current plight of the pound.

Everyone is a veteran of politics, and of course understands what is behind this complaint.

Italian Finance Minister Piero Barussi, who has already experienced the collapse of the Italian lira, suggested that Norman Lamont suspend trading temporarily to buy himself time to negotiate, rather than directly and unilaterally withdrawing from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Norman Lamont patiently pointed out the unreliable Italians that modern finance ministers do not have the power to suspend the continuous, globally traded foreign exchange market.

In the midst of this inaction of politicians, the desperate pound finally collapsed!

……

Tang Huan didn't seem to know the sword light and sword shadow outside the office, and quietly checked the manuscript he had just written.

There was a gentle knock on the door, and then Zhuang Menghua walked in, trying his best to say in a calm tone: "Just now, the pound collapsed, falling below the lower limit of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism floating range of 1 pound to 2.7780 German marks, reaching 2.7100 German marks. ”

"Of course." Tang Huan said casually without raising his head: "I think what everyone really cares about is how many pounds the Bank of England lost on this decisive day." ”

Zhuang Menghua said: "It is estimated that for a period of time, this data will be listed as a British state secret." Anyway, the Qinhe strategy alone on the surface has already completed the planned $1 billion position. ”

"The greed of capital knows no end - after the pound has been beaten into a sieve, international speculators will certainly not stop there, and it is estimated that the next target will be the French franc. Including diligence and strategy, we will not participate, and focus back on stocks and bonds. Tang Huan raised his head and explained.

"It's better to get out of the way as soon as possible." Zhuang Menghua nodded, "The situation in France is indeed very different from that of the United Kingdom, only in terms of property loan interest rates, it is not as floating as the United Kingdom, and the French are not as sensitive to interest rate hikes as the British." In particular, the French government ~ government has far more means of intervention than the British government ~ government. ”

"The power of hedge funds has been on full display in the process of crushing the pound. It is estimated that many investors are now turning a crazy idea in their minds, as long as everyone joins forces, they can completely abuse any central ~ central bank, even if its currency is stable. Tang Huan smiled playfully, "How can it be so absolute!" By the way, don't remind Jin Chang and Jinge and let them toss by themselves. ”

Zhuang Menghua immediately rolled her eyes, "What kind of psychology do you have as a father?" Can't you see your son succeeding and making money? ”

"Sometimes, the setbacks experienced by yourself are also a valuable asset." Tang Huan smiled indifferently, picked up the manuscript in front of him casually, and handed it to Zhuang Menghua, "You, a top student at Harvard Business School, help me check this article from a professional point of view, so as not to be discovered by others and attract jokes." ”

Zhuang Menghua glanced at it twice, and was immediately amused by the rhetoric of "White Wednesday", "Today, when the pound collapses, the British who will definitely admit defeat will be unanimously rendered as 'Black Wednesday', but your point of view is the opposite, don't you think the slap in the face at 10 Downing Street is not ruthless enough?" ”

"Not entirely for that reason." The richest man shook his head and said: "The pro-European faction in Britain is too superstitious about Germany's economic development achievements and the prospects of the European Community, so much so that in the process of negotiations to join the European exchange rate mechanism, they overestimated the value of the pound sterling, and since then they have been put on a tight spell, and this is a mistake made based on political ~ political interests." ”

"Now the UK must withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, otherwise the remaining two trading days of the week will not just collapse the pound."

"When the UK removes the shackles of the European exchange rate mechanism, it will be free to seek the policies it needs to prevent economic recession, and the will of the market will be truly reflected, and the British economy will improve."

Zhuang Menghua still couldn't help laughing, "But in the final analysis, it is the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, John Major, who has made the British blind, and he needs to be held responsible." ”

Tang Huan stretched his waist and said sarcastically: "We don't have to worry about this, naturally there will be British media to accuse John Major of incompetence." ”

……

At 5 p.m. on Wednesday, September 16, 1992, British Prime Minister John Major urgently convened his cabinet to approve the decision to unilaterally withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Two and a half hours later, at 7:30 p.m., British Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont appeared in front of the television camera. Exhausted and haggard, he unconsciously put his hands behind his back, looking like a prisoner with his hands tied.

Norman Lamont said heavily: "Today is an extremely difficult, extremely turbulent day. Huge financial flows continue to disrupt the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism...... The government~government has decided that the best interests of the UK can only be safeguarded by ending our membership in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. ”

……

This official announcement means that the UK's central ~ central bank no longer needs to continue to rely on "buy all" in the open market to defend its national currency.

But before the remedy, Britain has already suffered huge economic losses - into September, the British Central Bank spent $27 billion to try to defend the pound, a large part of which was consumed on September 16, and the pound was removed from the European exchange rate mechanism as a baffle, and the value of the British pound against the Deutsche Mark fell by about 14%.

Of course, the British government ~ government will not take the initiative to disclose how much taxpayers' hard-earned money it has given to speculators, but the British media can roughly estimate a result - 3.8 billion US dollars through these public data.

Without any new ideas, the British media called September 16, the humiliation of the pound, "Black Wednesday", and launched an overwhelming condemnation of the current government ~ government.

Rumors began to circulate that John Major had a nervous breakdown because he couldn't handle the pressure, and there were even noses and eyes depicting him spending a lot of time in his closet crying every day.

However, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont has repeatedly clarified that his boss is calmly leading the entire cabinet and dealing with the financial crisis in an orderly manner.

It is clear that these politicians are huddled together for warmth, and in return, and especially to prove that they are not inactive, John Major has not been held accountable for removing any of the officials in the UK Treasury.

At this time, Mr. the richest man, who has always been at odds with No. 10 Downing Street, suddenly jumped out to "wash the floor" for John Major.

When attending an industry event as a director of Jaguar Motors, Tang Huan pointed out in his speech that the media portrayed September 16 as "Black Wednesday" in the United Kingdom, which was too pessimistic; In the long run, "White Wednesday" would be more appropriate.

After every financial crisis, many people's first reaction is always to belittle the market, rather than learn embarrassing lessons from the market.

In terms of interest rates, on September 16, the United Kingdom raised two large interest rates in a row from 10% to 15% in order to fulfill its obligations as a member of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism; But now that the UK has withdrawn from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, interest rates will naturally be able to implement a more flexible policy, which in turn will drive the export of British goods to overseas markets and revive the domestic economy.

……

As if to confirm the truth of what the richest man Tang said, the London stock market rose in response, and in just a few days, the FTSE 100 index of the London Stock Exchange rose by 20 percent.

But No. 10 Downing Street was very annoyed by the behavior of the richest man throwing an olive branch - will you "wash the floor", so glorify the development opportunities after the United Kingdom withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, but joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1990 was also a political achievement promoted by John Major. Isn't the contradiction of such a close proximity to the incumbent cabinet all the more incompetent?

There are also traditional black Tang media forces such as "The Sun" clamoring - don't be sanctimonious to cover up for shorting the pound, or honestly explain how much British taxpayers' hard-earned money has been plundered by Qinhe Strategy in this pound crisis.

Tang Huan didn't care about this, Qinhe's strategy can be said to be famous, not to mention that the entire European currency crisis was the result of Wall Street's turmoil, and hedge funds and banks with a large amount of foreign exchange played the role of the main force.

To put it bluntly, this is because after the end of the Cold War, the United States is not accustomed to seeing the whole of Europe forming an alliance, and especially does not want Britain to get too close to the European continent.

On Black Wednesday, the United Kingdom announced its unilateral withdrawal from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and Italy immediately made it clear that it would follow.

As a result, the pressure on the French franc was heavier than ever in the coming week.

This led French Finance Minister Michel Sapan to cry out angrily that troublesome investors should be guillotined.

But what about the facts? Who would dare to do that?

This is where the British elite is interested, admitting defeat and discussing the richest man's "White Wednesday" analysis - the future is what matters.

As for responsibility, of course, there must be accountability, but it was the incompetence of John Major's cabinet.

The "White Wednesday" narrative was praised not only by the British, but also by their opponents on the day of "Black Wednesday".

When George Soros reported the investment income to Tang Huan, the gold owner, he said convincingly: "Don, do you know how much the 'White Wednesday' view has brought to the London stock market? (To be continued.) )