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You don't have to think much to guess that "The Dow Jones Industrial Average 36,000 Points: A New Strategy for How to Profit in a Future Bull Market", such an extremely sensational bull market forecast book, has been criticized by many serious professionals.

For example, Paul Krugman, an American economist and New York Times columnist, thinks that James? Glassman and Kevin? The two authors, Hassett, made a very stupid mistake in basic arithmetic.

In response, James? Glassman and Kevin? Hassett made a high-profile bet with his critics that if he was wrong, he would donate $1,000 to any of the designated charities.

It's an eye-catching age, and instead of being afraid of controversy, public figures like to take advantage of the opportunity to gain adherents.

As a result, the book is so popular that it can only be described as a "mess", so that the two authors, James? Glassman and Kevin? Hassett must have left a strong mark in history.

The general public's enthusiasm for "Dow Jones Industrial Average 36,000 Points: A New Strategy for How to Profit in the Future Bull Market" is simply because it happened at the right time and in the right place.

First of all, it must be admitted, James? Glassman and Kevin? Hassett is not a general, and has the least convincing foundation.

Secondly, and more importantly, the current bull market driven by technology stocks has too many bases for inevitable prosperity.

Let's think about it, compared with the original time and space, Tang Huan has added many "real materials" to the Internet wave with the .COM concept hype, and the three pure Internet companies of AOL, Yahoo, and Amazon have always stepped on the drumbeat of the times correctly.

At the same time, in today's globalized world, the United States, as the sole superpower, is naturally drawn from everywhere to feed its glory.

In addition to these macro factors, the general public instinctively yearns for a bull market.

You must know that the personal pension of the American people mainly depends on their own management, so the bad street truth of "you don't manage your money, money doesn't care about you" has been regarded as a holy text by countless people.

At this stage, almost all asset allocation consultants are actively promoting the concept of "balanced allocation" composed of 60% stocks and 40% bonds to "grandmothers", and use it as a panacea to solve everyone's financial problems.

According to data tracked by NYU's Stern School of Business, as well as other credible sources, since the twenties, this concept of a "balanced allocation" is a well-versed factor in earning an average of 5.3 percent more per year while outperforming inflation.

The concept of "balanced allocation", which is based on the "Modern Portfolio Theory", can only come from three sources: bond yields, equity dividends, and share price growth.

The first two of them are deeply affected by the US Federal Reserve's manipulation methods such as raising interest rates and cutting interest rates, and Wall Street's dazzling and unpredictable rules of the game.

In this case, it is not difficult to imagine the eagerness and obsession of the broadest group of ordinary people for the bull market.

James? Glassman and Kevin? Hasset's "Dow Jones Industrial Average 36,000 Points: How to Profit in the Future Bull Market" vowed that the stock market is still undervalued at this stage, and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could reach 36,000 points in the next three to four years.

Human beings are so smart, but ironically, they always subconsciously choose to believe what they want to believe.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average 36,000 Points: How to Profit in the Future Bull Market" is one such strange thing that everyone is enthusiastic about now and will feel incredible in the next few years.

As a "person who has come over", Tang Huan is definitely not such a fool. However, he is not overly superstitious about the existing "experience".

It is extremely dangerous to copy the original conclusions.

Take Zheru Software as an example, it is a variable that has increased out of thin air, and countless observers are analyzing why this constituent stock of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been repeatedly beaten by the monopoly case of the United States of America v. Zheru Software, but why is it still so chic? In the end, the results were invariably unanimous, that is, Zheru Software had "real materials", which largely offset the .COM bubble that only hyped up the concept.

When abstracting the real world into a "system" that can be analyzed, how to deal with the "variables" that produce the butterfly effect is definitely a test of wisdom.

Tang Huan is not 100% sure that the current .COM bubble will follow the historical trajectory and will inevitably burst in March next year.

The richest man can only collect as much key information as possible from his own intelligence channels that look at the world and deduce it repeatedly.

For example, international oil and gas prices, after years of decadence, have indeed begun to rise, so much so that Enron has become a justified basis for Enron to manipulate electricity prices in California.

Another example is that enterprises that continue to increase their IT budgets for the "millennium bug" are constantly complaining, and it is estimated that after passing this hurdle safely, their enthusiasm for IT investment will be greatly reduced.

In addition, in the current wave of the Internet, many hardware suppliers aggressively sell a large number of products to customers on credit in order to seize market share, forming a considerable amount of accounts receivable, Lucent is such a typical representative.

To some extent, today's brilliance is an overdraft of tomorrow's needs.

This round of good times in the process of economic development in the United States has lasted for seven or eight years, and it is time to start the next cycle of profit and loss.

Just as a stock market with an equally serious bubble ten years ago was taken out of the stock market, we cannot be arrogant and blindly obsessed with finding the highest point. After all, there are too many smart people in this field, and no one is willing to be a "pick-up man".

The richest man, who had pushed away all unnecessary entertainment, was "retreating and cultivating", when Jobs made a phone call and shouted angrily: "Don, I knew that it was not a good thing to go to the hospital with you and do a hellish physical health check!" ”

Tang Huan stretched his waist and asked casually, "Your nerve reflex arc is too long." It's been a long time since my final medical report was delivered, and it should be the same on your side. But how can I listen to your tone just now, as if I just read my final complete medical examination report. ”

"If I hadn't been called by the hospital several times, I would have forgotten this physical examination report." Jobs said stupidly: "Do you know what the conclusion is? I suspect that I have a tumor in my pancreas! ”

Tang Huan teased lightly, "You will complain less." If I had the ability to 'curse', I would have put the current governor of California, Gray Davis, long ago. I sent it in. ”

"Besides, I'm counting on you to lead the revival of Apple Computer and make a lot of money; It's all about hurting you when you're full. ”

"Alright, Steve, you're also the husband of your wife and the father of your children, so be responsible for yourself!"

After getting rid of Jobs, who had a very strange thinking about judging cause and effect, Mr. The richest man continued to "retreat and practice", but he didn't expect that after a few days, he would be a moth again.

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The following is the anti-D part.,Update it tomorrow.,Just ignore it.。

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Of course, the fact that such a well-known public enterprise such as Zheru Software Company made such a big move was of course quickly known to the world, and all stakeholders immediately rejoiced.

Depending on the situation, the blowing of stock repurchase is inevitably a bit empty; But the decision to spend an additional $500 million on StudiOS_XP marketing was a real benefit.

You must know that since Microsoft's Windows_98 was abused by the Chernobyl computer virus, the only general operating system for consumer-grade personal computers on the market is the StudiOS_XP of Zheru Software Company; And Microsoft can only hope that the Windows_NT, which was originally oriented to server workstations, can come up with a home version at the end of the year to fill the position.

In other words, the global annual shipment of personal computers has reached 100 million units, and in the process of changing its role from a productivity tool to a digital center, Zheru Software has a unique market, especially StudiOS_XP is so good that both partners and consumers are very satisfied.

Based on this, there is no doubt that a huge profit is involved in business opportunities and is in front of the entire industry.

Now, Zheru Software Company has added an additional $500 million to the StudiOS_XP market promotion, which is simply a further insurance for this gluttonous feast, which is absolutely delicious and full!

In Tiger Fund's office, Julian Robertson listened to Andris Harverson, Lee Ensley, Stephen Mandel, David Goel, and others discuss the impact of Philosopher's big move to use cash reserves to short its stock.

For example, as a standard value investor, Lee Ensley analyzed according to his own line of thinking: "Zheru Software added $500 million to the StudiOS_XP market, in essence, by further highlighting the huge business opportunities brought by StudiOS_XP to the entire IT industry, and to strengthen the pressure on the industry's petition activities, so as to achieve the purpose of temporarily shelving the trial of the United States of America v. Zheru Software Monopoly." ”

"However, even if the plan of Zheru Software Company succeeds, the Department of Justice will only make a temporary compromise, and it certainly does not want the monopoly case of the United States of America v. Zheru Software Company to be entangled with the upcoming 2,000-year-old US presidential election, and will resolutely let the monopoly judgment be finalized in the second half of this year and break up the current Zheru Software Company."

"Therefore, from a longer-term perspective, the foundation for shorting Zheru Software is not only there, but also very solid."

Julian Robertson nodded and concluded: "Compared to the .COM companies that hype up the concept, Zheru Software is undoubtedly a good company, but the problem is that it has been so successful that the Justice Department is determined to break the monopoly it controls." ”

"It is because of this that I have full confidence in shorting Zheru Software."

At this point, Julian Robertson said: "I know that .COM companies, which we have always been unoptimistic about, can soar in the stock market, and it is becoming more and more incomprehensible, and even beginning to doubt the value investing analysis method we have used for a long time......"

"That's what it was." Someone immediately complained: "After analyzing for a long time, it is better than those laymen, simply according to the principle of 'traffic is king', and directly pick stocks based on feelings." ”

"Take Amazon, the online shopping company that has just gone public, for example, obviously in four to five years, it will not be able to achieve even a slightly larger profit, but the IPO is still extremely hot, and the shares with an issue price of $22.5 per share have been snatched up, why?"

Listening to the frustration in the tone of the crowd, Julian Robertson has understood that he will continue to monopolize power as before, and suppressing the own ideas of some subordinates will inevitably lead to detachment.

Alas, who made the strength of the Tiger Fund shrink significantly, and it is impossible to cover up all the ugliness!

Thinking of this, Julian Robertson laughed and announced in a relaxed tone: "I am ready to set up several more independent funds outside the Tiger Fund system to let people with more ideas play out." For example, isn't there someone who wants to buy Intel stock? Then you can show your strengths according to your own ideas. ”

The conference room, which can be called full of talents, but somewhat dull, was suddenly stimulated by Julian Robertson's decision.

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At 200 West Street in Manhattan, New York, the Goldman Sachs Building, which is diagonally opposite One World Trade Center, welcomed an extremely distinguished guest, that is, Tang Huan, the world's richest man, and Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson greeted him with a spring breeze.

Goldman Sachs has just completed a good deal, that is, the underwritten Amazon shares have been successful in the NASDAQ IPO, and the mood up and down is naturally very good.

Of course, Mr. The richest man's respect for Goldman Sachs is not only limited to the identity of a customer, he is also a shareholder of Goldman Sachs.

Each system has its own way of balancing interests.

Take enterprises as an example, non-boss public companies have the living methods of non-boss public companies, and superior public companies have the living methods of superior public companies, such as Tang Huan's Zheru and Zheru software.

For a long time, Goldman Sachs has been a partnership company, and in order to transform into a listed company, it has been fighting internally for at least ten years, and now it finally has the final result, that is, Goldman Sachs, which always helps other companies IPO, will also send itself to the stock market in May this year.