……

Because after Bill Clinton came to power, he drastically implemented some radical social transformation plans, which triggered a backlash and completely provoked the conservative forces that were in the mainstream in American society, and as a result, after the results of the midterm elections came out this month, the Democratic ~ Mains Party collapsed and retreated in an all-round way; The Republican Party ~ won a complete victory, and the revolution was successful. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ｂｉｑUｇE。 ｉｎｆｏ

Specifically: the Democratic ~ Mains Party lost 8 seats in the Senate and 54 seats in the House of Representatives; For the first time in many years, the Republican Party finally took full control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, ending the 40-year control of Congress by the Democratic ~ Lord; At the same time, the Republicans~ also won more than half of the governor's seats, and for the first time, successfully controlled more than half of the state legislatures.

You know, since Franklin D. Roosevelt came to power in 1933 and implemented the New Deal, the Democratic~Nationalist Party has controlled Congress for a long time, and the Republican~ Party only controlled Congress from 1947 to 1949 and from 1953 to 1955, and the Senate during Reagan's presidency.

It was during the period when the Democratic ~ Democrat Party controlled Congress that the U.S. Civil ~ Bill of Rights and Peace ~ Rights Act was promoted, and at the same time, public finances increased substantially; In particular, in the 1960s, when the Democratic Party was in power, the big social program and the declaration of war on poverty and other measures promoted greatly increased the power of the federal government~, and the government~government budget and expenditure also rose sharply.

The "New Deal Alliance" that began with Roosevelt's New Deal allowed the Democrat~Nationalist Party to dominate the U.S. presidential election for 36 years until it collapsed in 1968, and the Republican~Republican Party came to power.

Bill Collinton's ambition to regain this glory only turned out to be an even more painful blow to the DP~Lords. Starting in January next year, he will be a veritable "lame duck" president.

Bill Clinton, who has a sense of loneliness that "I would have been to the bright moon, but the bright moon shines on the ditch", came to Bogor, Indonesia to attend the APEC summit this time, and naturally his interest was not high, and he did not hide his personal emotions during the private walk with the richest man.

After listening to Tang Huan mention the topic of turmoil in Mexico's financial market, Bill Collinton absentmindedly asked, "If the financial crisis really breaks out in Mexico, how can the United States be bad?" ”

"Under the general trend of global economic integration, one is prosperous, and each may need to rely on its own ability, but one loses both, as long as nothing is done." Tang Huan said leisurely: "When the time comes, a large number of unemployed Mexicans will cross the border and pour into the United States, increasing the financial pressure on the federal government, and even the benefits that the United States can get from the North American ~ free trade zone will shrink, traditional enterprises will be affected, IT spending interest will be reduced, and the high-tech industry will be hit." ”

Bill Clinton paused for a moment before replying, "I've heard from my aides about Mexico – the United States will never let a financial crisis break out on its doorstep." ”

Tang Huan muttered: "In January next year, the new members of the National Assembly will take office. When the time comes, I'm afraid that the sound of sweeping the snow in front of the door will be louder. ”

Bill Clinton sighed softly and humbly asked: "Tang's employees, there are hundreds of thousands, but they are orderly, and they have been rated as the best employers by the media for many years. ”

Since the New Deal coalition became a climate, in terms of the domestic image of the United States, the Democratic ~ Main Party was considered to represent the working class and low-income groups, while the Republican Party was seen as the representative of the business community and the high-income group - the former supported the big government~ government, spent a lot of money on national economic projects, and helped those who were in the lower classes. The latter represents a restricted small government~government, which is relatively less invested in state projects and less interference in enterprises.

Of course, this is just a general generalization, and when it comes to specific people and things, we have to look at each ability to fight for resources and energy.

Tang Huan is not completely inclined to the Democratic ~ Main Party or the Republican Party - as a "vulnerable group", he needs the former's political ~ governance correctness, but the Tang IT Kingdom wants the latter's so-called non-interference.

There are many other conflicts like this, but this is the way of checks and balances -- if you do not understand the essence of the rules of the game, in the end, you will be the one who suffers.

Tang Huan is still very happy to see the successful results of the Republican ~ Republican Revolution - in the first ten years of the rise of the Tang IT Kingdom, the Republican ~ Republican Party and the Democratic ~ Main Party fought against the president and Congress; Now that the presidential throne has been replaced by the people ~ the main party has come to sit, the seat of the National Assembly should be vacated.

In short, Tang Huan, who has little choice, is relatively satisfied with the current new equilibrium, and then hopes that Bill Clinton, who has been frustrated, can regroup and fight with his political opponents on an equal footing until the end.

So after thinking about it carefully, Tang Huan seriously analyzed: "Before this year's midterm elections, conservatives within the Democratic ~ Main Party are an important force, and it is relatively easy for them to cooperate with the Republic~ Republican Party; In this midterm election, almost all of these groups have been pulled down. ”

"The most realistic way for the White House to alleviate the resistance to governance is to regain the buffer that the conservative forces of the Democratic ~ Main Party and the Republican Party have before -- perhaps, it can draw an isosceles triangle and put the White House at the top, so as to maintain the same distance from members of Congress from both parties in Congress, so as to take a position in the middle of the two. Of course, how to operate it depends on consulting more professional people. ”

After listening to this suggestion, Bill Collintton's first feeling was that he was at a loss, but until now he couldn't find a better solution himself, so he could only laugh at himself: "I am up to this 'lame duck' president." ”

……

After attending the APEC summit, Mr. The richest man did not leave Indonesia immediately, but had a friendship with some famous local Chinese businessmen.

Tang Huan does not have direct investment in the IT industry in Indonesia, that is, Qinhe has cooperated with local Chinese businessmen on some projects.

On the whole, although Indonesia is rich in resources, the investment environment is certainly not comparable to that of Singapore and Xiangjiang, and the richest man is not very concerned. This is also revealed in the content of his inspection work.

For example, when Tang Huan visited the office of a local subsidiary, he paid special attention to the monitoring system in a somewhat off-topic manner, and even personally checked the shooting range of the camera.

The richest man's stay in Indonesia was already short, and he digressed so much time that his subordinates had to make the company's monitoring system a priority in the future – perhaps related to the rumor that the boss could even hold video conferences with employees around the world, including Indonesia, in the United States, via the Internet, to get a first-hand view of the situation.

Next, Mr. the richest man accepted the invitation and went to neighboring Singapore and Malaysia to inspect and have a close understanding of Indonesia and Malaysia, members of the "Asian Big Five" whose GDP growth rate has maintained more than 7% in recent years.

The trajectory of the original time and space is indeed not so easy to change-under their prosperity, the seemingly solid fortress is simply undefended to the calculations of those who have a heart.

It seems that the Asia-Pacific circle that he values is destined to be ill-fated.

……

When Tang Huan returned to the United States, the time had already entered December. Christina, the female boat king who went to Mexico City for sightseeing, also returned to the United States not long after.

"Except for some special assets, waiting for the time to liquidate, so that they can buy the bottom, the others have all retreated." Christina grinned and pointed to a document and said, "I'm just waiting for you to fill in that corrected number." ”

Tang Huan put the finishing touches on it, and then explained: "The assets invested by the US mutual fund in Mexico are estimated to be $45 billion -- I estimate that the Clinton administration~, which will definitely provide assistance, will use no less than $30 billion. ”

The female ship king was surprised: "The United States is so good to Mexico? This is about the same level of defense that Britain could achieve when it was sniped at the pound, can Congress agree? ”

"Who made Mexico on America's doorstep?" Tang Huan smiled slightly, "If the White House doesn't make a move, then the situation he faces will be more than just a matter of difficulties in Congress." ”

In the last year of the 1980s, Latin American countries were in dire need of domestic economic reforms, mired in debt crises.

To this end, the Institute for International Economics invited researchers from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the U.S. Department of the Treasury, as well as representatives of Latin American countries, to hold a seminar in Huashengdun, aiming to provide solutions and countermeasures for economic reform in Latin American countries.

John Williamson, an economist at the Institute of International Economic Research in the United States, wrote the "Huashengdun Consensus," which systematically put forward various proposals to guide economic reform in Latin America, which was supported by the World Bank.

Among the proposals are monetary policy - the promotion of floating interest rates; In terms of trade and capital policies, we will promote the liberalization of trade ~ and the entry of foreign capital freely ~ freely.

In this era, the "Huashengdun Consensus" and "Shock Therapy" are both popular theoretical systems, which are promoted by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in developing countries.

Not everyone can become a universal truth, these things can not be said to be absolutely correct, nor can they be said to be completely wrong, the key is to adapt measures to local conditions, learn to apply, especially to be independent, to supervise - international capital really has to flow freely ~ by the flow, but don't expect it to be willing to be a good baby who follows the rules.

To put it simply, Mexico's economic problem at the present stage is that the current account deficit is actually abused to make up for the short-term foreign capital, and in order to stabilize the confidence of foreign investors, the inflated value of the Mexican peso is guaranteed by issuing short-term bonds, so that the foreign exchange reserves are getting smaller and smaller, and the result is that just like those who rely on credit cards to overdraft the future to maintain their existing material life, the space for flickering and maneuvering to make up for the west wall is being compressed smaller and smaller, and it is one step away from collapse.

In particular, the political turmoil in Mexico this year has added uncertainty to the air.

Of course, there is no shortage of shrewd people who sense that financial risks in Mexico are approaching, and one of the main manifestations is the phenomenon of capital flight.

But any such imminent speculation will definitely have to settle down. Otherwise, the tragic goods that will be wrapped around in the end will be yourself.

Of course, Mexico does not want to collapse by itself, but it has been broken into a sieve, and the receiver can only be taken by the United States, which is afraid of being affected, and the firmness and timing of this big coffee's entry have become the key points in this game.

What Tang Huan has to do is to use the resources he has accumulated to quietly and accurately capture the most important information; As for the specific operation, there are naturally trustworthy people in charge.

In this way, the richest man sorted out the manuscript that was about to be handed over to the publishing house, and at the same time methodically tasted the glass of Mexican tequila.

……

On December 20, Mexico's new president, Ernesto Chadilo, who was inaugurated on the 1st of this month, announced that the Mexican peso would depreciate by 13 to 15 percent.

This abandonment of the previous administration~ government's promise not to depreciate the Mexican peso directly crushed any luck that investors had with policymakers, and began to sell the peso frantically and snapped up the dollar - the panic that the inflated Mexican peso is very likely to depreciate again immediately spread.

The Mexican peso crisis has erupted!

On December 22, the bombshell news broke again - the Mexican peso introduced a floating exchange rate.

As a result, the Mexican peso plummeted from 3.4:1 to 7.2:1 against the dollar, as if in free fall.

In an effort to curb capital flight, Mexico's Central Bank ~ Central Bank has raised interest rates, but this has done nothing other than hinder economic growth prospects.

At the same time, Mexico has had to deplete its precious dollar reserves to maintain its creditworthiness as some of its debt matures, but the Mexican government ~ is still facing an imminent sovereign default.

The current national economic system has a staggering effect on the whole body -- the stock market crash, inflation, and so on.

Although the Mexican government~government, which has been psychologically prepared for a long time but is still anxious, has launched an emergency economic rescue plan to compress the current account deficit to a level that can be paid normally as soon as possible to actively save itself, and at the same time applied for emergency loan assistance from international financial institutions to help the Mexican government~ government tide over the difficulties and reduce the losses of foreign investors.

At this time, Tang Huan had two documents on his desk - one of them was the minutes of the meeting of US President Bill Clinton and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, and Lawrence Summers; The other is the Mexico Debt Disclosure Act of 1995, which is about to be introduced to Congress by the White House.