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On 23 July, US spy satellites detected that Iraq had deployed three more divisions of about 35,000 troops about 32 kilometers from the Kwan-Iraqi border. On July 24, the United States held a joint naval exercise with the United Arab Emirates to express concern about the matter. However, in response to a reporter's question on the same day, a spokeswoman for the US State Department stressed: "The United States does not have a defense treaty with Kuwait, nor does it have any special defense commitments to it." ”

On 24 July, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak shuttled through Iraq and Kuwait with a view to resolving the dispute through his good offices.

Mubarak formally put forward a four-point proposal to both sides of the conflict: first, the two sides should stop attacking propaganda and threats of war against each other; Second, the two sides should confine the issue to the Arab countries and refrain from internationalizing them in any form; Third, a meeting between Egypt and Saudi Arabia will be held in Jeddah in the near future to discuss a peaceful solution to the dispute; Fourth, in the process of settling this dispute, the two sides will not discuss the border issue for the time being.

Mubarak's mediation was successful, with Iraq and Kuwait halting propaganda attacks and senior leaders of both countries agreeing to hold direct talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Saddam Hussein also made a solemn promise to Mubarak that he would not provoke a war and resort to force until the negotiations with Kuwait were concluded. He will do his best. to peacefully resolve the dispute between the two countries.

In order to show Saddam's sincerity, Iraq also withdrew in the early morning of 26 June the nearly 90,000 troops that had been assembled along the border with Iraq and Iraq were all withdrawn, thus relieving people of the increasingly tense situation in the Gulf.

"Mingyuan, do you think they won't be able to fight?" After Old Man Guo heard the news, he couldn't help but feel a little anxious.

Fang Mingyuan smiled confidently and said, "Grandpa, in the history of this Shijie war, are there still few examples of false and real, loud and vile sneak attacks?" If the assurances of politicians had worked, there would have been no German invasion of Belgium and attack on the Soviet Union during World War II; There was no Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. It can be said that the guarantee of politicians is the most discredited thing on this shijie! Kuwait's leaders, if they can't even see through this, deserve to perish. ”

Fang Mingyuan remembers very well that in his previous life, it was not until a few years after Saddam Hussein was captured and hanged by American GIs that a large number of reports on the Gulf War were declassified. According to a later declassified report, late on the night of July 24, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein summoned US Ambassador to Baghdad April Hussein. Graspe, and saw this meeting with the U.S. ambassador as a meeting at the highest level. At this meeting, Saddam Hussein expressed his dissatisfaction with the US side in a very tough manner, saying that the US Government has indulged the news media in vilifying and attacking the Iraqi Government, and that some parts of the United States are secretly in contact with the Gulf countries in an attempt to overthrow the Iraqi regime. Moreover, Saddam Hussein made it clear in his words that Kuwait is Iraq's biggest enemy at present, and he hoped that the United States would not interfere with the internal affairs of the Arab world. During the talks, the US ambassador said she fully understood the content of Saddam's remarks. For some of the important issues covered in the talks. Although she could not give an official answer on behalf of the Government of the United States, she was willing to express her personal views on the issue. On the issue of US-Iranian relations, she said: She has received instructions from the US President to improve relations between the two countries with Iraq as soon as possible.

At a time when tensions between Iraq and Kuwait were on the verge of breaking out, the US ambassador to Iraq's reply was tantamount to loosening the reins on Iraq's head and making Saddam believe that the United States had no intention of interfering in Iraq's actions in the Middle East. As long as the United States does not take action, Iraq, which fought the Iran-Iraq War for eight years, is undoubtedly the most militarily powerful country among Arab countries other than Iran -- although it is said that Iraq does not possess nuclear weapons, Saddam Hussein has openly stated that Iraq possesses chemical weapons.

Without the restraint of the United States, and at that time the Soviet Union had quite good relations with Iraq, Iraq's armed forces were among the top among the Arabs, Saddam Hussein, who had strong ambitions and was eager to use Kuwait's wealth to put an end to Iraq's financial predicament, would never have retracted his minions until he was thoroughly beaten.

So Fang Mingyuan was not anxious at all, in his opinion, this invasion war was already imminent, and Saddam's actions were just a smokescreen. It is nothing more than paralysis of the Government of Kuwait and other Arab countries.

Old Man Guo couldn't help but feel a little embarrassed in his heart, he seemed to be really old, how could there be no young man who could calm down.

Lin Lian walked over quickly, handed the eldest brother in her hand to Fang Mingyuan's hand, and said in a low voice, "Minister Su's phone." ”

Fang Mingyuan hurriedly stretched out his hand and took it.

At this time, Su Huandong regretted it in his heart, Fang Mingyuan had mentioned to him before leaving for the United States that he was worried about possible changes in the Middle East, but he did not take this matter to heart at that time - the Iran-Iraq war has ceased fire, although Iraq has been fighting a war of words with Kuwait and the emirate of the United Arab Emirates, but on this shijie, there are still few countries that are fighting a war of words? Moreover, domestic strategic experts have not analyzed and studied this matter and have come to the conclusion that the possibility of war is very small.

The reason is also very simple, first, the Iran-Iraq war has just ceased fire, and the Iraqi army, which has been fighting for eight years, also needs time to recuperate, and before a formal peace treaty with Iran is concluded, I am afraid that the Iraqis will not dare to take it lightly; Second, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are different from Iran and Iraqis basically belong to the same sect of Islam, and in the Iran-Iraq war, they belong to the same camp. Third, Saudi Arabia and the United States will definitely not sit idly by and watch this kind of thing happen. So domestic experts believe that the possibility of a war is very small.

In addition, he was busy with the internal affairs of the Ministry of Railways at that time, so he put the matter aside. No one expected that the situation in Iraq and Kuwait would be in just over a month. has developed to the point where it is now tense, which has surprised the experts one by one.

Su Huandong then remembered that Fang Mingyuan had mentioned to him more than a month ago that there might be changes in the Middle East, so he called to ask about it. Fang Mingyuan was worried that his mobile phone would be tapped, so he changed the landline and dialed Su Huandong back.

"Mingyuan, what do you think about the development of the situation in the Middle East?" Su Huandong asked bluntly.

"The Iraq-Kuwait war will definitely break out, and within a day, the entire territory of Kuwait will be occupied by Iraq!" Fang Mingyuan is categorical.

Su Huandong on the phone was silent for a long time, as if he was digesting this amazing news.

"You mean the Iraqi war is inevitable?" Su Huandong's voice was quite low. He didn't ask Fang Mingyuan where he came to this judgment, obviously in Su Huandong's heart, this answer had already existed.

"At this point, unless Saddam Hussein changes his mind, ......" Although Fang Mingyuan did not continue, Su Huandong already understood what he meant.

"Grandpa Su, in my personal opinion, the United States will never allow Iraq to occupy Kuwait, and if Iraq, which has the second largest oil reserves, occupies Kuwait, which has the fourth largest oil reserves, it will be close to or simply surpass Saudi Arabia, the first in terms of oil reserves. And Iraq, unlike the pro-American Saudis, does not have any close traditions for the Americans. Rather, most of the time. Relations with the United States are not good. The Americans will not allow their oil sources to be controlled by Iraq. When Fang Mingyuan said this, his heart suddenly moved. Judging from the reaction of the Americans after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in their previous lives, it was indeed as they said, and no one else should be allowed to refer to the Middle East oil depots.

However, everyone has to admit that whether it was before Iraq's invasion of Kowiko or after the declassified American information, the Americans at that time did quite clearly express to the Iraqi government and even to the world that the United States had no intention of interfering in the affairs of the Middle East. It will not be involved in the Gulf conflict, let alone bear the responsibility of protecting Kuwait.

Fang Mingyuan remembered that in his previous life, within a few days after the Iraqi army retreated, he once again moved forward to the Khova-Iraqi border, this time with 100,000 troops, including hundreds of tanks and artillery, but Washington remained silent about it.

He had also seen a report in which he mentioned that on July 31, the day before a meeting between Iraq and Kuwait, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State John Brown. Kelly testified before the 'Middle East Subcommittee' of the U.S. House of Representatives. A member of the House of Representatives at the time asked whether the United States had an obligation to defend Kuwait if it had been invaded.

Assistant Secretary of State Kelly replied that the United States does not have a defense agreement with the Gulf countries, and although the United States supports the independence and security of friendly countries in the region, and also believes that the sovereignty of every Gulf country should be respected and all disputes should be resolved through peaceful means, it is true that there is no treaty or obligation to compel the US Government to send troops.

And the next day, the day before the Iraqi army invaded Kuwait, at this critical juncture of war and peace, the British BBC radio station broadcast the broadcast of the United States Assistant Secretary of State John Brown. Kelly's above-mentioned speech can be said to have indirectly conveyed to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's assurance that the United States has no intention of getting involved in the Gulf conflict. It was also on this day that the CIA again issued a warning to the US government that Iraq was going to invade Kuwait. But the U.S. government did nothing, not even to warn Americans not to travel to Kuwait......

Fang Mingyuan's hand holding the phone microphone trembled slightly involuntarily, a thought that he had never thought of in his previous life suddenly came out of his mind. From the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war to the hanging of Saddam Hussein and the occupation of Iraq by the US military, for more than 20 years, the United States has prepared a big trap in order to return to the Middle East and control the initiative in the oil market!

The information that Fang Mingyuan had seen in his previous life and what he had learned in the past few days proved that the reason why Iraq was able to claim the first place in force on the Arabian Peninsula was because of the support of the Americans. It's inseparable. At that time, in 1979, when turmoil broke out in Iran, the former Shah of Iran had to flee abroad, and the religious leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Iran from Paris to take over power after 14 years of exile, and the Islamic Republic of Iran was proclaimed on April 1. In 1980, war broke out between Iraq and Iran.

In the Iran-Iraq war, the United States took a pro-Iraq stance when the Iraqi army was defeated on the battlefield, not only did it not condemn Saddam Hussein's responsibility for launching an attack on Iran, still less condemned the Iraqi army's use of chemical weapons in the war, but also dragged other Western countries to sell all kinds of advanced weapons and equipment to Iraq, and from time to time it also provided the Iraqi military with satellite photos of the Iranian army's activities.

It can be said that it is precisely because of the help of Western countries led by the United States that Iraq has maintained an invincible situation during the ceasefire of the eight-year Iran-Iraq war. However, as far as Fang Mingyuan knows, it seems that the United States is secretly selling weapons and equipment to Iran at the same time, and there is also an Iran-Contra scandal.

After the ceasefire was achieved in the Iran-Iraq war, the Western countries led by the United States, in addition to helping Iraq restore its economy, continued to provide it with advanced weapons and equipment, and remained silent about Iraq's production of chemical weapons and research on nuclear weapons.

Later, when Iraq made territorial claims to Kuwait for billions of dollars in compensation for so-called 'oil theft' and massed troops on the Kuwaiti border, the US leaders, although they were aware of the situation, did not give any warning to Saddam's action.

This gave Saddam Hussein a wrong signal -- he believed that the Americans were not opposed to Kuwait making a certain 'sacrifice' to Iraq in terms of land cession and compensation. The Bush administration wants to maintain the balance of power in the Gulf region, and still regards the Iraqi military as a balance between the Islamic regime in Iran and the anti-American Arab Baath Socialist regime in Syria.

Therefore, to sum up, before Iraq's attempt to invade Kuwait, the United States not only never explicitly warned Saddam Hussein not to use force in the conflict with Kuwait, but instead sent a series of vague and even erroneous diplomatic signals. But these false diplomatic signals encouraged Saddam to make a decision.

And the purpose of the United States in doing this is to make Iraq's military liliang a threat to the Gulf countries, so that these countries have to seek the protection of the United States, and thus take the initiative to invite the US military to return to the Middle East on a large scale!