"Click! Click! Click! ”

In the proprietary department of Tatfook Bank, except for the sound of the computer slightly combing through the data changes, the atmosphere seems quite depressing.

found that Zheng Fan was reviewing the U.S. stock market, including Wang Lin, everyone didn't know what he was thinking.

"Isn't it very risky to operate stock index futures?" Feeling that the silence at the moment was Zheng Fan's preparation before attacking, Wang Lin couldn't help but walk up to the thick-lipped woman and asked.

"Then it depends on how to do it, the most important function of stock index futures, in fact, is the same as the hedging of commodity futures, if it is coordinated with the stock market, the risk will be much smaller, but to speculate, the situation is very different." Luo Hong looked at Zheng Fandao.

"Although the stock index futures trading of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is allowed to be naked long and naked short, and there is no upper limit for trading, but the naked long and short are only relatively speaking, at least this kind of speculation requires a certain trading margin, and without the coordination of the stock market spot, it is not enough to ensure the control of stock index futures, and the risk exposure will increase significantly." The old man Chang Xu explained in a low voice.

Seeing that time was passing little by little, even Ji Keying couldn't help but feel that what Zheng Fan said before about operating might just be a whim.

"Observe?"

found that Zheng Fan didn't care too much about the situation of the self-operated department, and kept switching trading systems to do various analyses, Wang Lin couldn't help but secretly increase his attention.

"Chang Lao, what do you think of today's Hang Seng Index market?" After a while, Zheng Fan seemed to know in his heart and asked the old man.

"There was a downward pressure in early trading, it's been an hour, the Hang Seng Index has not rebounded, but continues to go down, if this is a deep adjustment, I'm afraid it's the first day." The old man responded steadily, hoping that Zheng Fan would give up his plan to enter the market and go long.

"Do you know why I would say that today's decline is somewhat unusual?" Zheng Fan had already gotten up from the computer, walked to the rain and asked with his back to everyone.

"The positioning of the Hong Kong economy and even the Hang Seng Index that you gave before is only a judgment made on the basis of long-term trends, and it is not enough to be used as a short-term basis for operation." Luo Hong, a thick-lipped woman, said calmly.

"Indeed, it is precisely because the volatility of short-term operations is difficult to grasp that it will form difficulties and obstacles for speculation, and now you look at the situation of the U.S. stock market, whether it is the Dow Jones index, or futures contracts, are in a steady climbing stage, and the Dow Jones index futures, unlike Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures, at least the last three months of contracts, are all in a state of contango." Zheng Fan said with a smile without replying.

"What's causing this?"

After switching the trading system, not only Luo Hong, but even Chang Xufa did not find out that the premium of the Dow futures contract is diametrically opposed to that of the Hang Seng Index futures.

"Let's take a look at the leading sectors where the Hang Seng Index fell today."

Whether it is the overall situation of the capital market or the details of the transaction, Zheng Fan seems to be at ease.

"Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa are under heavy selling pressure, and a number of listed real estate companies such as Wharf, Henderson Land, New World Development, Hysan Properties, and Sun Hung Kai Properties are also quite weak." The old man Chang Xuhui carefully observed the trading situation of the Hang Seng Index and responded to Zheng Fan.

"Because of the inertia of Hong Kong's internal economic demand and rapid economic growth in the early stage, Hong Kong's real estate market, since October last year, has come out of the trough, not only the demand for residential buildings is strong, the sales market of commercial buildings has also turned thriving, this is the golden period of the property market, how to think about the pressure on real estate stocks, it is also abnormal." Zheng Fan's statement made Luo Hong and others secretly surprised.

"Even if the overall trend is established, it may not be affected by constraints...... the old man's cautious statement does not have much basis.

"If the overall trend is upward, isn't every adjustment a good opportunity to intervene? At present, the Hong Kong labor market continues to be stable, the employment growth rate is also very good, and as inflation slows down, the rise in wages is also limited, which also causes the upward pressure on business operating costs to begin to ease, resulting in more funds invested in real estate and the stock market, both for the Hang Seng Index and the real estate sector, which is a strong support. Zheng Fan looked at the bustling scene in the distance through the floor-to-ceiling windows, and his tone sighed slightly.

"Going out of China and settling in Hong Kong, not only has its own privatized bank, but also has such a good office building, which is too strong compared to the three-story small dilapidated building invested by Rainbow before!" Regarding Zheng Fan's emotion, Wang Lin can more or less perceive the meaning.

"If the U.S. economic slowdown and the decline in the real estate sector cannot effectively kill the Hang Seng Index, you may be able to consider trying to buy the bottom and go long." Luo Hong hesitated.

"You still haven't grasped the key to it, didn't you ask why the index futures are a premium, and the Hang Seng Index futures are the opposite discount? Let me tell you, the reason why Dow futures have a premium is because there are a very small number of large institutions that have certain expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, especially at the point of announcing the slowdown of the U.S. economy, and it is impossible to say when the decision to cut interest rates will occur, and this month's Fed interest rate meeting is the 20th and 21st. Zheng Fan suddenly turned around and showed a greedy smile.

"The timing of the Fed's interest rate meeting is not a secret, but it is public, but will it really cut interest rates? From the beginning of the year to the present, the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates once, and our Hong Kong market has no expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates......" Chang Xufa looked shocked.

"There is no press conference at the Fed's interest rate meeting this month, and this closed-door meeting is more like a regular meeting." Luo Hong said uncertainly.

"It is precisely because there is no press conference, so there will be a neglect effect, from the beginning of the year to the present, the Federal Reserve's interest rate has been calm for more than eight months, and now it has entered the second half of the year, coupled with the slowdown in the US economic growth is determined, and then every interest rate meeting after that, it is equivalent to a big gamble. Zheng Fan said with a playful smile.

"You mean, with a definite slowdown in the U.S., there's a good chance that the Fed will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy?" Chang Xufa realized how much Zheng Fan dared to bet on the support of the future.

In fact, even if the Fed's possible interest rate cuts are not mentioned, the operation of Hong Kong's economy alone is enough to support the continued operation of the Hang Seng Index bull market.

Once you have the positioning of the bull market, all that remains is to take advantage of the deep correction to find an opportunity to enter the market.

"With the deepening of the stimulus growth of the world economy, the space for interest rate hikes has been closed, and the trend of interest rate cuts will gradually take shape, compared to European countries, the United States cut interest rates, or relatively late, if it is determined that the economic growth will slow down, the Federal Reserve has not taken action, it is too slow, although this month's interest rate meeting is closed, but it is likely to be a big upset." Zheng Fan grinned, giving Wang Lin the feeling that he wanted to choose someone to devour.

Chang Xufa and Luo Hong glanced at each other, they really didn't expect that this boss from the mainland would have such an incredible understanding of the capital market.

"Calculate the time, today is the 16th, from the Federal Reserve 20 ~ 21 real interest rate decision, there are not a few days, and out of consideration for the Fed's style, if there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, before the real decision, there should be a routine briefing, look at it, these days there may not be that big mouth as soon as the mouth opens, it will stir up the international capital market, for a long time, the Fed's interest rate news is too calm, and it should be lively." Zheng Fan said with a smile.

"Boss, what do you mean, even if the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates this month, once there is this expectation of interest rate cuts, will the briefing be able to release the news as promised?" It was only at this time that Chang Xufa completely understood the reason why Zheng Fan would be so fearless.

"Unlike most central banks that suddenly release news, whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates or cuts interest rates, there are few sudden situations, usually before that, there will be a warm-up process, to the market to fully adapt and react, this warm-up process is a briefing, mostly in the form of informal speeches by Fed officials, and interviews, even if the Fed does not cut interest rates this month, once it is determined that there is a need to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, the news should be released from time to time." Zheng Fan said with a deep smile.

"If the Fed cuts interest rates, what indirect impact will it have on Hong Kong's capital market?" Wang Lin didn't know how to ask.

"At present, Hong Kong's capital market mostly follows the trend of U.S. stocks, and once the U.S. cuts interest rates, it will indirectly stimulate the rise of the stock market, which in turn will affect the market of the Hang Seng Index." Zheng Fan took a puff of his cigar and said.

"Is there a direct impact?"

Despite resigning as the chief financial officer, Qin Yan couldn't help but ask curiously.

"Then we have to start with the linked exchange rate between Hong Kong and the United States, in fact, the linked exchange rate is a rigid mechanism, Hong Kong note-issuing banks must trade in US dollars according to the fixed exchange rate of 7.80 Hong Kong dollars to 1 US dollar, on this basis, the interest rate of Hong Kong dollars can not be greater or less than the US dollar interest rate too much, otherwise arbitrage will occur, forcing the Hong Kong dollar interest rate to return to the same level as the US dollar interest rate, which means that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, even if Hong Kong is passively following, the interest rate will change at the first time." Zheng Fan explained calmly.

"Is there a correlation between the slowdown in the U.S. economy, the current and future economic positioning of Hong Kong, the abnormal decline in today's market, and the pressure on the real estate sector?" Under the guidance of Zheng Fan, even Wang Lin, who didn't know much about foreign capital markets, also noticed that the capital monster in front of him was probably making a huge overall planning and layout with the support of all strong evidence.

(The first one will be delivered, and there will be a little later.) ）