72. Fetal movements

"You don't want to die!" She slapped him back to his original form, and the man who had always been strong looked a little afraid at the moment, looking at her helplessly, and she sneered. Di Yu rolled his eyes and looked at the top of the tent: "Hao, if there is no change in Chonghua, your father has become the emperor and you have become the crown prince, you will definitely marry the crown princess as soon as you reach the crown, and now you have children under your knees, don't you say?" ”

"No, because this prince will wait for the second lady of the Zheng family and Lu, and then marry her as the crown princess, and now it is very possible to have children under his knees."

"I don't believe it, your noble crown prince will not like me when he sees me, because you are not my husband alone, and when you see me, you must be the same as other ladies; If you might like me, you'll have to see me before you reach the crown, but I'm still a little girl. ”

"Are you so unconfident? Don't you believe I'll fall in love with you at first sight? ”

"Altman Index: Predict the probability of corporate bankruptcy z=0.75x1+0.85x2+3.11x3+0.42x4+1.0x5

The five indicators with the strongest ability to insolvency are:

x1 = (current assets - current liabilities) / total assets 2

x2 = Retained earnings / total assets

x3=ebit/total assets

x4 = market value of shareholders' equity / total assets

x5 = Revenue/Total Assets

2.675 is considered to be a critical value, and if the value obtained is less than 2.675, the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise is high.

Hidden assets: are the economic resources of enterprises that do not appear on the balance sheet, although they can create future profits for enterprises, but it is difficult to estimate the amount of future profits they generate, that is, it is not known how much profit they generate, and it is difficult to judge which years these profits will be realized in the future. For example, the high quality of the workforce, the heavy sales contract, the social prestige of the business and its products (brand equity

Implicit liabilities: Generally refers to liabilities that are not recorded in the balance sheet, but become explicit over time or due to changes in certain factors. This kind of explicit debt may cause a gradual decline in corporate profitability over a long period of time, and may also lead to a sudden loss of corporate assets in the short term.

Functional lock-in: Investors are often locked in a specific superficial information in the decision-making process, and cannot fully understand and use the relevant information to evaluate the value of securities and make correct investment decisions. Taking accounting earnings information as an example, the market's functional locking of accounting information earnings is reflected in the fact that investors only pay attention to the nominal earnings figures and do not pay due attention to the quality of accounting earnings, and the stocks of companies with the same accounting earnings but different earnings qualities cannot be priced differently.

Mean Rotation Characteristic: When a phenomenon deviates significantly from its historical average, its subsequent development will converge to the historical average. If the deviation is higher than the historical average, the future trend is lower, and if the deviation is lower than the historical average, the future trend will increase. The mean rotation characteristics of corporate profitability refer to the following: the current earnings level is high, and the earnings level of the next period may be reduced; The current surplus level is very low, and the next surplus level may be higher.

Accrual anomaly: When investors price stocks based on accounting earnings, they are unable to distinguish the difference between the continuity of accruals and the sustainability of cash flows, and overpriced the sustainability of accruals and underpricing the sustainability of cash flows. Investors can construct a portfolio by buying shares of companies with high accruals and selling shares of companies with low accruals, and can obtain excess returns of about 10%. This phenomenon of excess returns, which occurs when the accruals in the accounting surplus are mispriced, is known as the accrual anomaly.

Sloan (1996) shows that high accrual firms have lower profitability in the future, and investors do not fully understand the difference between the persistence of the accrual portion of earnings and the cash flow portion, and the persistence of the accrual portion is worse than the durability of the cash flow portion. As a result, a high-accrual business has a lower future return than a low-accrual business. This is called Accrualanomaly.

Second, the concept of measurement

Sloan (1996) tested for the first time the durability of the accrued portion of the surplus relative to the cash flow portion based on the econometric view, and the pricing of the accrued portion of the surplus by investors

It was found that the persistence of the accrual portion was lower than that of the cash flow portion, and that investors had a higher mispricing of accruals. According to the authors, this is due to the cash flow component

The objectivity of the measurement is high, and the measurement of accrual is more subjective. The Sloan (1996) study focused on the accrual of working capital, and the latest study further suggests that non-working capital

The durability of accruals is also lower than the durability of operating cash flow. Barth, Elliott and Finn (1999) argue that accruals as accounting estimates are more likely to be subject to the estimation process

impact, therefore, there is a difference in the predictive power of accruals and cash flows for future earnings. Collins and Hribar (2000) found that the market overpriced total accruals. Xie (2001) will accrue

The part is decomposed into two parts, manipulative accrual and non-manipulative accrual, and it is found that the lower persistence of accrual mainly comes from the manipulative accrual part, and it is considered that the lower persistence of accrual is

Earnings management is caused by accounting distortions. Many other studies have also argued that a higher level of accrual implies a subsequent earnings reversal, and therefore that savings management (Penman,

Zhang,2001)。 The follow-up study of the econometric view was gradually developed in the advancement of his own views and the struggle against competing hypotheses.

Son, Sloan, Soliman, and Tuna (2006a) analysed all accruals, including working capital accruals, and qualitatively evaluated and categorized them by reliability

Now, the least reliable accruals have the worst durability and the market has the largest mispricing of them, which further supports the relative unreliability of accrual measurement and its low durability

Sexual point of view. As a guide to Fairfield, Whisenant and Yohn (2003a) on the diminishing marginal returns of new investments and the combination of durable robust accounting for both accruals

Contrary to the lower persistence argument, Richardson, Sloan, Soliman, and Tuna (2006b) argue that Fairfield, Whisenant, and Yohn (2003a) claim that the net operating assets are of The growth is really just non-working capital accruals, and they use numerical simulations to show that the results are exactly the same as what Fairfield, Whisenant, and Yohn (2003a) call new investments

Diminishing marginal returns, contrary to the explanation of the combination of the two in enduring sound accounting, is precisely the reversal of accrual that is caused by aggressive accounting or temporary accounting distortions, in addition, which the author uses

The algebraic transformation decomposes the accrual into a growth part and an efficiency part, and finds that the efficiency part is more significant than the growth part in explaining the low persistence of the accrual.

3. The growth concept of net operating assets

The net operating asset growth view stems from recent findings that there is a negative correlation between investments and future equity returns. At the same time, there is also a negative correlation between accruals and future stock returns.

Given that accruals are part of the growth of net operating assets (investments), many scholars have begun to explore whether there is a zĂ i connection between the two, or even different tables of the same phenomenon. Thomas

and Zhang (2002) argue that since accrual is not only a component of the surplus, but also a component of the growth of net operating assets, it is difficult to account for the growth of net operating assets

Quantification. Fairfield, Whisenant, and Yohn (2003a) also argue that accrual is not only a component of profitability, but also a component of net operating asset growth

Divide. The perception of diminishing marginal returns on new investments and enduring sound accounting leads to a decline in the profitability of companies with high accruals in the future. The authors found empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis, table

Not only does the accrual of high working capital lead to low future profitability, but the growth of long-term net operating assets also leads to a decline in future profitability. Fairfield, Whisenant and

Yohn (2003b) further argues that the lower correlation between current accruals and future profitability is due to the fact that the correlation between accruals and net operating asset growth is greater than that of operations

There is a stronger correlation between cash flow and net operating asset increments, i.e., accruals in earnings lead to more net operating asset growth. The points in the equation that will be measured in the future profitability

After changing to net operating assets at the beginning of the previous period (i.e., excluding the impact of the increase in net operating assets), it is found that the durability of accruals is no longer lower than the durability of operating cash flow.

The decline in profitability was due to the increase in net operating assets, rather than the reversal of the subjective nature of the accrual itself. Zhang (2005) argues that accrual anomalies arise as causes

For accruals to include information about investment/growth, investment/growth leads to negative future equity returns and the relatively low persistence of accruals. The paper finds that accruals are associated with other increases

There is strong synchronous variability between attributes, such as employee growth rates, and accrual anomalies are found to be stronger in industries or firms with strong synchronous variability, and in industries with weak synchronous variability

or firms, the accrual anomaly is much weaker, and the authors believe that this outcome supports the investment/growth hypothesis. It can be seen that accrual is not only a component of the surplus, but also a net operation

components of asset growth,

"The Biography of the Dictionaries": The number of Dayan is fifty, and there are nine out of forty. Divide it into two to like two, hang one to like three, and when it is four to like four, it is strange to take the leap like it; At the age of five, it is intercalated, so it is hung again. The number of days is five, and the number of places is five. The five are in harmony with each other, the number of days is twenty and five, the number of earth is thirty, and the number of heaven and earth is fifty and five, so it becomes a change and acts ghosts and gods. There are six out of 210 policies for "Qian", four out of 40 policies for "Kun", and three hundred and sixty for the current period. The strategy of the two articles, 1,520 thousand, when the number of all things. Therefore, the four camps became "Yi", and eight out of ten changed into hexagrams, and gossip became small. Extension, touch and grow, the world's ability to do everything. Showing the virtue of God is why it can be used with entertainment, and it can be with Youshen.