Chapter 53: Predicting the Future

"That's right."

The computer said, "All probability events involve a lot of variables, and the change of each variable will lead to different results, and there are many variables that affect the two-color ball, in order to accurately predict it, it is necessary to collect a large number of relevant data samples, set up a model for them, and speculate its inevitable outcome through a large number of calculations and simulations." ”

"You're just mistaken!"

Before Hu Yue could speak, the mobile phone 'Great God' suddenly retorted, "You think about the two-color ball too complicated, it is a repetitive event, and there are not so many variables, and many of its objective conditions are either determined, or the influence factor is very low, and it will not affect the actual results at all, just like you said, the temperature and air pressure are basically negligible factors." ”

"What's more, the master is telling you predictions, not speculations."

The great god continued, "Prediction is to allow a certain amount of error, and it is completely possible to use the fuzzy ignorance method, omit some variables, and speculate the most likely result, and there is no need for a hundred and zero calculations at all, at most twenty will be enough!" ”

"That's not right!"

"According to chaos theory, there are no absolutely independent events in the world, and all variables in the universe can affect them." ”

"You're confusing again!"

"According to Rabe's theory, nature has a law of self-correction, and the butterfly effect can only be established under certain conditions, and subtle variables cannot affect events at all. ”

“……”

Hu Yue was stunned when he heard it, didn't he predict a two-color ball, and he bullied me for being uneducated by talking to me about so many big theories?

"Stop, stop!"

He hurriedly interrupted, "Although I know what you said is very powerful, I don't understand it at all, great god, just say it directly, with your current ability, can you predict the two-color ball?" ”

"Can't ......"

The great god shouted very vigorously just now, but he didn't expect that the answer was still no.

"I don't understand!"

Hu Yue was really puzzled, "Great God, you go and check for me, what are the chances of winning the first prize of the two-color ball?" ”

"One in 17721088."

"That's it."

Hu Yue was puzzled, "It's only one in seventeen million, and it stands to reason that this calculation is not very large, why can't you measure it?" ”

"Master, as I said before, it's not an absolute probability event."

The great god replied, "Theoretical probabilities and actual outcomes are completely different things, and it is not that knowing probabilities can predict outcomes. ”

"Presumably, master, you also know that many large-scale computers on the earth have a computing capacity of hundreds of billions per second, but have you ever seen someone use a mainframe computer to predict two-color balls?"

“……”

Hu Yue thought about it, as if he had really never heard of it, but he said stiffly, "Maybe the cost of using the mainframe computer is too high, and it can't be used to predict the two-color ball." ”

"Master, the cost of using a mainframe computer is not high, not to mention those developed countries abroad, even in China, people can apply for the use of a mainframe computer for free, if you are willing to spend money, it is not difficult to get hundreds of billions of computing power."

"Really?"

"Really!"

"Many large-scale computers were created with the intention of breaking records and gaining fame, but in fact they don't have so many computing tasks at all, and most of the time of the year, they run at low loads. ”

"Okay."

Hu Yue thought about it and didn't argue any more, but he still had a question in his heart, "Then why is the two-color ball, every time there is more prize pool, there will be a big prize, those winners are stable, and they can't buy a bet number dozens of times better, and they really won't win, they won't really rely on luck, right?" ”

"This ......"

The great god hesitated for a moment and said, "Master, you must have heard that there is a deep inside story in this nine times out of ten......

“……”

Hu Yue's face darkened, and he was a little annoyed in his heart, you must know that he had also bought a few two-color balls at the beginning, but he didn't expect it to be a deep pit.

"Great God, how many calculations per second can you have the fastest computer in Laboshk?" Hu Yue asked curiously.

"Just reached eighty-nine zeros."

Eighty-nine zeros!

Hu Yue was stunned for a moment, it doesn't sound like a lot, but if it is described as a billion, billion

"Just now I seemed to hear Daxian say that nothing in the universe is unpredictable, is it true?"

"Theoretically, that's true."

The great god replied, "In fact, everything in the material world is traceable, can be deduced through calculation, their historical trajectory, development trends, are formed because of the interaction between each other, if all the matter, the samples used are counted, establish a virtual simulation world, through the computer to speed up the flow of time in the virtual world, you can indirectly predict the real future." ”

"So powerful?"

Hu Yue was dumbfounded, "I didn't expect you Labos to be able to predict the future?" ”

"Not yet."

"Predicting the future is a big project, not only involving a huge amount of data, but more importantly, it is difficult to collect the information variables of the relevant things used, which naturally makes it difficult to ensure the authenticity of the virtual world, and the accuracy of the predicted results is very low." ”

"Moreover, life is the most unpredictable variable in the universe, and if the predicted future involves too many variables of life, then the amount of data involved will exponentially increase."

"On the other hand, the smaller the direction of the future, the more distant the future, the more unpredictable factors there are, and the accuracy will be greatly reduced."

"In fact, predicting the future is only in its infancy at Labos."

"But the scientists on Rabe's planet are very interested in it, because only by deriving the future can we change the future and ensure the eternal prosperity of mankind." ”

"And scientists have also estimated that if you want to predict the future of a human planet, the variables involved will be extremely large, and it is very likely that you will have to start with a million zeros, which is a difficult task at all."

The Rabeans really want to......

Hu Yue muttered, to be honest, the great god said so much, there are not a few words he can understand at all, fortunately, his original intention is not to seek much understanding, in fact, he just wants to listen to the excitement, "Since you can predict the future, can you also restore history?" ”

"Of course."

"And restoring history is much easier than predicting the future, because they have already happened, so there are no variables, and as long as you find the historical traces of things, you can deduce history." ”

"Really?"

Hu Yue became interested, "Doesn't that mean that as long as your computing power goes up, you can deduce and simulate the history of the earth before, or even the age of dinosaurs tens of millions of years ago?" ”