Chapter 302: The Mei Brothers' Sorrowful Urging
"It's over, it's all over!" Mei Qi was obviously very frustrated.
Since 81, Zhang Shaojie has reminded him that the big bear market is coming, but he does not believe in evil. The more than 1 million funds earned in the bull market are constantly speculated in the stock market.
However, in a bull market, tried and tested techniques are completely ineffective in a bear market.
The more you buy, the more you fall! The more you fall, the more you buy!
Constant stock swaps – or down!
If you want to be alone, it's difficult!
When you can't do it, forcing it to do it will inevitably lead to tragic results!
During the bear market, Mei Qiming's funds gradually lost to 500,000 Hong Kong dollars in June 1982! However, Mei Qiming felt that the initial good luck was brought by the stock of Jianing Real Estate.
So, Mei Qiming began to buy Jianing Real Estate at 3.5 yuan. He said in his heart that Jianing Real Estate had 17.9 Hong Kong dollars at its peak, and now it should be safe to buy it for 3.5 yuan.
Who would have thought that in the past few months, Jianing Real Estate has become more and more bearish.
After Margaret Thatcher's fall in Yanjing, Jianing Real Estate has fallen to about 2 Hong Kong dollars.
After that, rumors began to spread that Jianing Real Estate had falsified its performance and was insolvent. As a result, on October 26, it has fallen to 1.07 Hong Kong dollars!
Therefore, at this time, Mei Qiming's assets were only 100,000 Hong Kong dollars.
"Brother" Mei Qide is no better, and his assets at this time are only 250,000, "I regret not at the beginning, Shaojie said that he would go bear from the second half of 81!" ”
"Yes, it's still Shaojie who is amazing, and I took a look at the trend of the Hong Kong stock market. Zhuge Liang is nothing more than that, Buffett and Peter Lynch are far worse than Shaojie! After Mei Qiming came to his senses, he began to worship Zhang Shaojie even more.
"Brother, in terms of investment, he is still talented. Ten thousand of our brothers add up to not as good as one Zhang Shaojie! What should I do later, let's ask Shaojie! Mei Qide said.
"Yes, it's been a long time since I've seen Shaojie. Buy some gifts and visit him! Mei Qiming said.
—————————— early November 1982.
Mei Qiming and Mei Qide visited Zhang Shaojie again.
"Shaojie, I really regret not listening to your advice!"
"I'm really blinded by lard!"
The two brothers, Mei Qiming and Mei Qide, you confessed in the face of Zhang Shaojie.
Zhang Shaojie did not despise them either, in fact, this is just the common surname of ordinary investors. Even if many billionaires, or some professional stockbrokers, sometimes in the game, they can't help but be infected by market sentiment, and they know that they can't do anything in the market, but they don't believe in evil.
According to theoretical knowledge, it is known that it is a sign of a bear market, but investors have 10,000 reasons to explain it - "this time is an exception". Only when investors have already lost a lot of money can they completely admit that the bear market is coming!
In 81 years, the value of Hong Kong's stocks had deviated from the fundamentals, and stock prices exceeded more than ten times the net assets per share.
Even some real big blue chips with excellent Hongkong Land, in 81 years, the price-to-book ratio often exceeded 5 times, and the price-earnings ratio was generally more than 40 times.
In this case, the value of all stocks in the entire market is overvalued by two or three times, and at most by twenty or thirty times. There is not a single stock at all, which has investment value!
Therefore, in 81 years, Zhang Shaojie met friends who had investments in the stock market, and they were advised to sell their stocks. However, most of my friends have a lot to say that value investing has long been obsolete, and now is basically the era of trend investing.
Very good, Zhang Shaojie also agrees with the trend investment concept.
The problem is that the so-called friends of trend investing have seen the stock fall below the common indicators such as moving averages, trend lines, and MACD at the top, and turn from a bullish trend to a bearish trend. If the investor is really what he calls "trend investing", he should also quickly stop his losses and sell the stocks.
However, friends who previously claimed to be "trend investors" often abandon trend analysis and use other analytical models to explain the current stock market phenomenon.
Therefore, many failed investors do not understand the common sense and technology of the stock market.
The problem is that every time it comes time to make a decision, he is always half-hearted and unwilling to adhere to an investment philosophy to the end!
The Hong Kong stock market has been down for more than a year since July '81.
And the shocking and violent decline after 9 shares in 82 years made all investors feel heartbroken.
"Now that it's trapped, don't cut the meat at the bottom." In order to avoid the Mei brothers' mistakes, Zhang Shaojie explained, "Except for some problem stocks, such as Jianing Real Estate, which cannot be held." Some of the other excellent stocks HSBC, Cheung Kong Holdings, Hutchison Whampoa and the like are already very cheap! ”
In fact, the mistakes made by investors in the stock market are in addition to the fact that they often mistakenly buy stocks when the price of the stock rises to sky-high prices, so that they lose a lot of money.
The second mistake is to be at the bottom of the bear market, because of complete pessimism and disappointment, and cut the meat of the stocks bought at a high price at a low price.
In the history of human stocks, the previous bear markets, except for the stock market in the early 90s, have not been untied to investors for 20 years. The rest of the previous bear markets, even if they have heavy losses, as long as they are not cut out at the bottom, they basically have the opportunity to earn back their capital.
For example, the 1929 Wall Street crash, the worst stock market crash of the 20th century, not only triggered the global economy into a depression, but also was one of the triggers of World War II. There are a bunch of desperate investors between 29~33 years, but if these investors survive until the 40s, they are basically unbundled.
Hong Kong had a rare stock market crash in the 60s, and there was also a desperate stock market crash in the 70s. However, after the two stock market crashes, as long as the spirit of investors is strong enough, they will continue to hold shares with the spirit of relieving the set. At most, ten years, not only to untie the set, but also to reap a lot of benefits.
The stock market crash since '81 was no exception, and this time the stock market crash bottomed out at more than 670 points in December '82. In the following years, the market appeared to be a bit sluggish after hovering at the bottom.
By the time of more than 1,200 points in '84, the market began to be active again, and not only broke through the top of '81 - 1,810 points. In 85, 86, and 87, it soared to 3949.73 points, more than double the top of 81!
Zhang Shaojie looks at it from the perspective of the reborn, basically all the major stock market crashes in Hong Kong, whether it is the stock market crash in 67, the stock market crash in 73, the stock market crash in 81, the stock market crash in 87, or the stock market crash in 97.
Every time an investor cuts his flesh in despair at the bottom and vows never to touch the stock again, he will find that if he persists for a few more years, not only the losses of the year have been recovered, but also wave after wave to 1810 points, 3900 points, 16673 points, and more than 30,000 points after that
The history of the development of stock market indices fully illustrates that the overall trend of human history is upward.
With Zhang Shaojie's guidance, Mei Qiming and Mei Qide were appreciative.
In order to prevent the two brothers from doing things indiscriminately again, Zhang Shaojie suggested that the two put the stocks aside, ignore them, ignore them, and ignore them, and only after five or six years were they allowed to look at the stock accounts.
Of course, the Mei brothers' current state of idleness makes it difficult for them not to touch the stocks.
For this reason, Zhang Shaojie smiled and said: "During this time, you two will run errands for me!" ”
"Or stock trading?" Mei Qiming and Mei Qide were quite surprised.
Compared with investing by themselves and taking a bunch of risks, the two prefer to run errands for Zhang Shaojie to make money.
"It's not about speculating in stocks, it's about buying land!" Zhang Shaojie smiled.
Now, with the assets of the major companies under Zhang Shaojie's name not being used, he has $150 million in cash in his personal bank account. This mainly comes from the manuscript fees, film adaptations, and various derivative interests of works such as "The Legend of Double Dragons of the Tang Dynasty" and "Breaking the Sky".
This money, if used properly, in the 82~83 years, the period of depression in Hong Kong, the industry will be bottomed out, and in a few years, it will definitely be able to make a big profit.
For example, the industrial land in Kowloon has plummeted by 90%! The price of land per square foot is only HK$25! Such a price basically fell back to the 60s overnight!
Many other residential land and office land are generally down by about 60%!
This concentrated plunge has greatly damaged the vitality of real estate developers who have bought land at high prices for several years. But for some shrewd real estate developers, such as Li Ka-shing, they will take advantage of the plunge in land to buy the bottom.
At present, Li Ka-shing's flagship company, Cheung Kong Industrial, has a market value of only 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, while Hutchison Whampoa has more than 4 billion debts and 5 billion assets. However, taking advantage of the low price of land to acquire land on a large scale, in a few years, the increase in the value of land alone will exceed several times the huge profit. Not to mention, when land is cheap, developing buildings, and selling and renting them after real estate prices pick up, can increase the value of profits.
There are so many landlords in Hong Kong. Ordinary mediocre real estate developers misjudge the market. For example, Jianing Real Estate will go bankrupt and liquidate, and Hongkong Land will be a subsidiary of the auction company to repay its debts.
Li Ka-shing, on the other hand, often buys low and sells high. When the real estate boom is profitable, it is very cautious, rather than aggressively taking land for development.
Only when the market crashes like a crash, at this time, a businessman surnamed Li Ka-shing will return to the market with a huge amount of money.
Zhang Shaojie's dream is not to become a real estate developer.
However, in order to support the business territory of the future concept, it is also necessary to have the support of a profitable industry. At this time, the stock market and property market plummeted, giving Zhang Shaojie a chance. These windfalls will lay a more solid economic foundation for the development of Zhang Shaojie's cultural undertakings!
(To be continued)