Chapter 017: The Old Prime Minister's Worries

Xu Fei didn't make a special trip to see Xiao Chen when she came to Beijing this time, she came this time just to study at the Central Party School as a routine before the change of position, and this process is a proper meaning in the Chinese political arena. As a member of the Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee of Xu Fei Xiaonan, she is naturally studying in the provincial and ministerial classes, and there are two main projects for this major, one is how to maintain the first-class member under the new situation of socialist economic construction, and the other is how to properly deal with some emergencies in the face of work.

If the former is a project that is often talked about in the advanced training of the party school, then it is the first time that the topic of "how to deal with emergencies" has officially entered the provincial and ministerial classes. Originally, the party school's advanced training was not without this kind of project, but the level for the purpose did not reach the provincial and ministerial level, at first it was taught at the county and department level, and then at the department and bureau level, and finally now, even the provincial and ministerial classes have begun to speak. At this moment, it is most likely to occur in the case of various contradictions and conflicts, as a high-level leading cadre, on the one hand, it is necessary to alleviate the contradictions and conflicts in a way that cures the root causes, and on the other hand, it is necessary to make preparations with both hands and think about how to deal with emergencies. This change in the provincial and departmental classes of the Central Party School also highlights the pragmatic spirit of the current CPC leadership collective.

After the official opening of the provincial and ministerial classes of the Central Party School, Xiao Chen, as the head of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee, also made great efforts to the topic of "how to maintain the integrity of the first class in the new situation of socialist economic construction" of the provincial and ministerial classes, and took half a day to personally go to the Central Party School to take two major classes.

In the afternoon, Xiao Chen rushed back to Zhongnanhai for a meeting, and the meeting location remained unchanged, it was still Huairentang.

The gray wall of the Zhumen is glazed, and the national emblem is hung high on the front door.

The content of today's meeting Xiao Chen was naturally notified in advance, or to discuss the issue of economic cooling, last month's CPI year-on-year increase of 6.2% was within the expectations of the government and most socio-economic scholars, but it is still at a high level, and there is no obvious indication of whether inflation has entered a downward channel. There is still a long way to go in controlling prices and stabilizing housing prices.

However, in the second half of the year, the established policy of "grasping with both hands" has not had a significant effect, although it has been repeatedly emphasized at the executive meeting of the Government Council, food prices and housing prices have risen to varying degrees year-on-year. The implementation effect of controlling prices and stabilizing housing prices is not only related to the completion of macroeconomic regulation and control tasks, but also related to the long-term stable and healthy development of the economy.

The work of controlling prices and stabilizing housing prices has a long way to go, and it is necessary not only to "grasp with both hands", but also to be "hard" with both hands. From 2003 to the present, the real estate market has undergone many times of regulation, and the house price is always "there is no danger", real estate regulation is the "grasp" of the house price, but the implementation of the policy is not "hard" strength, so that the house price in the regulation before the rapid progress, the steady rise in the regulation, after the retaliatory rebound.

Regulatory policies have changed from moderate to severe, and from local spread, but problems have always existed. The idea of gradually expanding the scope of purchase restrictions is consistent with the path of stopping the third home loan the year before last, and the pilot implementation of the pilot implementation from hot cities has then spread, avoiding the economic turmoil brought about by the large-scale policy implementation.

However, in the past year and two months, only two or three inconspicuous third-tier cities have issued mild purchase restriction orders, while the remaining second- and third-tier cities have chosen to either keep silent or exchange "price limit" for "purchase limit" to avoid the impact of the purchase restriction landing. Half a year ago, when all localities were required to set housing price control targets, most cities only vaguely stated that they wanted to match the growth level of residents' disposable income, but there were no specific control targets or more measures.

Since the implementation of regulation and control policies needs to be combined with the actual local situation, the specific standards for implementation are also controlled by the local government itself. As a result, except for a few cities where the strict regulatory policies issued by the central government can be strictly implemented, the regulatory policies of other cities have been discounted to varying degrees. Accountability, although it has been emphasized repeatedly, has not been truly implemented so far, and even if accountability has been carried out for land management, most of the people responsible for accountability are relevant personnel in county-level cities.

The momentum of excessively rapid rise in housing prices has been curbed, but the ups and downs of residential transaction volume have made housing prices still "firm", and even in the channel of slow rise, and the time for the "inflection point" has been repeatedly postponed. However, the "fake falls" of real estate are emerging in an endless stream, and developers have used a variety of tricks to create gimmicks to attract buyers. Accelerating sales is a good strategy for real estate companies to recoup funds, and in order to maintain development needs, real estate companies have gradually increased their overseas high-interest borrowing; The return rate of domestic real estate trusts has also risen steadily. And the wait-and-see mood of home buyers is still strong.

The decline in housing prices is not the whole goal of real estate regulation, but it is the most intuitive judgment of the effect of regulation and control, and the discount at the level of policy implementation has made housing prices rise in some cities in the first half of the year. However, the real estate regulation policy is mostly short-term behavior, so it is necessary to build a long-term mechanism for regulation and control. In addition, a series of tax and fee systems related to stabilizing the real estate market should be accelerated and improved, and the improvement of the fund-raising mechanism and distribution system for the construction of affordable housing, as well as the gradual expansion of the scope of protection, should be prepared and gradually implemented. In this way, after the withdrawal of short-term control policies, the real estate market can still operate smoothly and avoid large fluctuations in housing prices.

Of course, whether it is the real estate regulation policy or the daily policy to maintain the healthy operation of the real estate market, the most important thing is the real implementation at the implementation level.

In the end, it is up to people to implement any policy, so this issue also involves the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and the purpose of today's meeting is to discuss within the Politburo how the Organization Department and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection can exert pressure or even punish those who are unwilling to implement the central policy or who violate the central policy.

Xiao Chen agrees with the economic view that housing prices remain high because of the continued low decline in manufacturing or industrial industries. In 2003, the reason for the sharp decline in manufacturing profits was vicious competition; However, from 2006 to the present, the crisis of China's manufacturing industry has been caused by three aspects: first, the increasing tax expenditure of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises; Since 2010, the reserve requirement ratio has been raised 21 times in a row and interest rate hikes have been raised 7 times, and the burden on manufacturing enterprises has been increasing. Thirdly, there is a mistake in the labor policy, which has led to a lose-lose situation for some enterprises and employees.

In the external environment, China's manufacturing industry has been hit by the United States, on the one hand, through the exchange rate war, the United States requires the appreciation of the RMB; On the other hand, the price of imported raw materials has been controlled through a number of policies. The data shows that from 2010 to the present, the RMB has been appreciating against the US dollar, and the latest has exceeded the $6 mark; At the same time, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, crude oil, and copper have continued to rise sharply compared to 2009 and 2010. All of this has led to the real estate industry becoming the last pillar industry in China. At the same time, manufacturing industries such as steel, cement, polysilicon, and automobiles are facing a serious overcapacity crisis. Further, the funds originally engaged in the industry had to flow into the property market again, and eventually caused the current heat.

In fact, the two are related, but because Huaxia government has always been "lenient", if you engage in a liberal economy at this time and let it go, then housing prices will definitely continue to rise, and eventually exceed the critical point and then collapse, which will lead to the total rupture of the entire economy.

But what if the tube? Among them, the means to cure the symptoms are the direct means of restricting purchases and raising loan interest rates, and the way to cure the root cause is to find a way to squeeze out the social capital from the real estate industry and make it return to industrial investment, and this requires the government to introduce more favorable policies to promote industrial development. Only when there is money to be made from investing in the industry, everyone will not concentrate on speculating in real estate.

In the two or three years since Xiao Chen entered the Politburo, the atmosphere in Huairentang has become more and more tense and serious, and the political crisis led by Huaxia is not once or twice, but in the end, they all persevered, the former sages are not far away, and whether the successor can continue to be brilliant depends on the princes present in this conference room.

Xiao Chen once again proposed at the Politburo meeting that adjusting housing prices is a systematic project, and it must stand at the height of the overall situation, make overall planning, and give a package of projects, from consolidating the foundation to reducing inflammation and relieving pain.

In addition, Xiao Chen pointed out that in the past, the central government and the local government "negotiated" to leave the funds for the sale of land to the local government, which now seems to be problematic, and this problem was not particularly reflected at that time, but now it has become a fatal big problem, and if this problem is not solved, there will definitely be a bad situation in which the central government comes up with policies and the local governments come up with countermeasures.

At the same time, he quoted the words of former Premier Hung Tingbang before leaving office: "I have talked about the overheating of real estate, but I have found that the vast majority of comrades have not yet realized the seriousness of the problem, and always start with a sentence of 'overall very good' and then say a little bit of the problem." Absolutely not! This kind of overheating is incredible, in 1993 it was the overheating of real estate, and as a result, Tianya Island is still 'covered in bruises'. When I read foreign newspapers and periodicals, they all say that China's bubble economy has been formed, and the real estate is overheated and the risks are too great. Our comrades in the bank must be aware of this, because all this money belongs to the bank...... What I'm very worried about is 'urbanization'. Now that 'urbanization' has been linked to building houses, it is very dangerous to deprive the peasants of their land at very cheap prices, let foreigners or real estate developers move in, and not resettle the peasants well. This is not at all in line with the spirit of the central government's policy, and we have discussed it many times, and we are afraid of this thing. ”

Finally, Xiao Chen returned to the topic: "So today we said that the Central Organization Department and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection should restrict these local leading cadres, first of all, I feel that we must give a criterion on this issue, you have no problem in urban planning, but you must resettle the aborigines on the ground who have been taken away by you, and the Central Organization Department and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection must severely punish any place that is not properly resettled!" ”