The property problem has not become a big problem in the world today, and even many families are still rejoicing and cheering for the vigorous development of the real estate industry, because many people used to live in a few families crammed into a public allotment house of only twenty or thirty square meters. Now I can rely on my own struggle and savings to buy a set of two-bedroom and one-living room, two-bedroom and two-living room, three-bedroom and one living room, and three-bedroom and two living room". It's as exciting as a shotgun for a cannon!

However, how do they know that the real estate of the little Mao Tuo, who is still in his infancy, will grow into a blood-soaked sky-devouring beast in just ten years, crushing the entire country's urban residents and devouring the savings they have worked hard for most of their lives, and they are not satisfied!

The prime minister of a dignified country actually said, "There is no country today, and tomorrow there will be five countries, and the mainland housing prices will not be able to be suppressed." Such helpless words. Why did housing prices rise in the end and could not be suppressed, and why did they continue to rise but none of them worked?

Xiao Zhen, as a political figure with the advantage of crossing, he can't help but be vigilant and think about this.

What is the root cause of the high housing prices in China? If this problem is not solved, regulation and control alone will naturally not be effective, and only by understanding the root cause of the high housing prices can we further understand why housing prices have not been suppressed.

First of all, Xiao Zhen analyzed several stages of China's real estate development.

The first stage is from the year of the year to the year of the guard, which is a new cycle of the Chinese real estate market, during which the consumption of owner-occupied housing is the mainstream, and the price of housing rises slowly.

The second stage is from the milk to the year of Liyu, which is the rising period of the real estate market, economic development stimulates housing consumption, coupled with the rise in housing prices has caused a large amount of capital to enter the real estate market in order to maintain and increase its value, which has promoted the rapid rise of housing prices.

The third small stage is from the force injury to 2 years, during which the state has introduced a series of policies to suppress the property market, and the real estate market has also entered a stage of stalemate, and the increase in the property market has significantly converged.

The fourth small stage is from the injured year to the 7th year, and funds from various industries have poured into the real estate industry, housing prices have repeatedly hit new highs, and land kings have appeared frequently. For example, the 7-year Chinese real estate market is a wave of unforgettable market, housing prices all over the country have risen a lot, at the beginning of the year is the first special zone Pengcheng, Lingnan property market led the national small month after the month. The long-dormant Oriental property market also saw a rapid upward trend, and then, the rise in the property market further spread to many second- and third-tier cities.

The fifth stage is from 24 years to the year, the property market has once again entered the stage of stalemate, people who are familiar with the property market know that the housing prices in many cities have even fallen compared with the year of the guard.

The sixth stage is the fierce year when the property market has entered a period of upswing again, during which the national property market has risen, and many high-end residences in first-tier cities have repeatedly hit "sky-high prices".

Finally, in the old year, under the effect of a series of related policies, the property market once again entered a period of stalemate. However, through the analysis of the long-term trend of the real estate market, it can be known that the trend of the real estate market in the past year is: the upward trend of the market will not change.

Xiao Zhen has already recalled the situation, so what should I do?

Through the analysis of these stages of the development of the real estate market, Xiao Zhen draws two conclusions. First, the development of China's real estate market is closely related to the macroeconomic level, and it is precisely because of the rapid growth of China's economy that the real estate market has prospered; Second, the effect of policy suppression is limited, although the policy can play a certain role in inhibiting the property market, it will change the magnitude and time of housing price rise in stages, but it cannot change the overall upward trend of the property market. What is particularly obvious is that the number and frequency of policies and regulations formulated by the state for the real estate market are unprecedented. However, intensive regulation has not substantially curbed the rapidly rising property market. The "second home loan" policy introduced in the first year of the year is considered to be a heavy blow to the property market, but after the change in the economic environment in the second year, the market immediately saw a huge rise in retaliation in the fierce year.

In order to clarify the context of the development of the property market, Xiao Zhen even traced the time back to the old year, when he had not yet crossed into this world, but he knew that after that year, there was a round of national economic overheating, of which the real estate fever was quite eye-catching.

Therefore, in the "slack years" of the old Zhao year, the state carried out macroeconomic regulation and control on this. At that time, the central government adopted a double tightening policy, that is, tightening fiscal spending, tightening monetary policy, raising interest rates, reducing loans, collecting loans in advance, and even emphasizing that state-owned banks could not lend money for real estate development.

After several years of regulation and control, the economy cooled down significantly, but the Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out in the second half of the year, so the state launched various policies to promote the development of the real estate market: such as using loose housing finance to promote housing demand; Tax reductions and exemptions to reduce the burden of buying a house; The housing authorities of local governments have implemented a reduction in housing transaction fees; Bringing stock housing into the market, etc. Dongfang City has introduced other policies such as tax rebates for house purchases since last year, and at the same time, the recovery of the real estate market in Shanghai has also begun.

In August, the "Notice on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" issued by the branch of the Blade Guard Branch was foolish: the Guzhen real estate market has entered a stalemate of regulation and rise. Finally, on March 2, the year of injury, the promulgation of the "Notice on Effectively Stabilizing Housing Prices" and the "National Eight Articles" made the rise in housing prices in many cities temporarily converge. In the past 7 years, housing prices in many cities have risen wildly, and the relevant parties have finally introduced extremely strict policies such as "second home loans". Under the influence of the financial turmoil, the macroeconomic situation faced by Li Feinian is highly similar to that of his nephew: the turmoil caused by the global financial crisis, the economic downturn of major trading countries has become a fixed trend, and the export environment has deteriorated; A large number of enterprises have closed down, and the employment situation is tense. In this case, stimulating domestic demand has undoubtedly become a top priority, and real estate has undoubtedly taken on such an important task again. Finally, the state once again stimulated the property market, forming another high point in the property market in the fierce year.

Through the above analysis, Xiao Zhen found that although the real estate market has undergone many policy suppressions, it obviously has the characteristics of stages. The primary task of China's economy is to develop, in, "to ensure growth." Under the premise, many measures to stimulate economic growth will inevitably "collapse" the impact of previous regulatory policies.

Looking back on history in order to have a clearer understanding of today and tomorrow, through the above series of analysis, Xiao Zhen found that although the regulatory policy can have a phased effect, its influence is only temporary after all, and it is impossible to change the long-term upward trend of the property market. Why is this so? The rigid demand of home buyers is one reason, and the most fundamental is that under the current growth model of the Chinese economy, in order to stimulate the increasingly fierce currency over-investment of the economy, it is the driving force behind the long-term prosperity of the Chinese property market.

On the other hand, as long as the over-supply of money does not stop, no matter what kind of policies are introduced, the upward trend of housing prices will not change. Of course, it is undeniable that the current market demand for self-occupation is still strong, which shows that the development of the Chinese real estate market is still in the golden hour. In this way, "demand" has the nature of transmission, gradually from the economically developed areas in the coastal areas to the economically underdeveloped areas in the central and western regions; By "one-time home purchase." to "second home purchase, three home purchases"; from high-income, middle-income and high-income families to middle-income and even low-middle-income families; From the first- and second-tier cities to the third- and fourth-tier small and medium-sized cities and small towns in developed areas. In fact, in recent years, the per capita income of Chinese people has also grown relatively fast, which has also become an important driving force for the continuous rise in housing prices.

However, the power shown by the money delivery is much stronger. Since the beginning of the new century, Huaxia Guang has shown a rapid growth trend, and the liquidity of the financial market has continued to be loose. At that time, some experts believed that the rapid growth provided a relaxed liquidity environment for the Huaxia credit market, and through bank credit, the potential demand for housing of residents was transformed into effective demand, which promoted the rise of real estate prices. In addition, the old affects real estate prices by providing sufficient liquidity to the market, and the increase in the old makes it more likely for real estate developers to obtain loans from banks, and the liquidity constraints of potential home buyers are reduced. Thus having a considerable impact on real estate demand and investment decisions for new construction, ultimately leading to changes in real estate prices.

According to the research of the "Medium and Long-term Development Dynamic Model of Real Estate" of the China Index Research Institute, the sales area of commercial housing in China reached 100 million square meters in the year. The year-over-year growth model shows that the normal growth rate is about. The growth rate of gills and gills comes from the release of annual demand suppression, and the impact of various policies is: the contribution of credit excess to the growth rate is gills, interest rate cuts are gills, and tax cuts are gems, respectively, making the sales area "extraordinary" growth plexus and heart B square meters. For the whole of the four years, RMB loans increased. It is said to be one trillion yuan, an increase of 4 trillion yuan from the previous year, hitting a record high. The historical data of Likou year shows that the impact of monetary injection on the real estate market is very obvious, and the trend of various types of real estate loans, old and sales area and prices converge, and there have been many common peaks and bottoms. According to estimates, assuming that other factors remain unchanged, the rapid growth of the old year led to the increase in the price of commercial housing, and the sales area of commercial housing increased in the old Rui, and the average growth caused by the monetary supply in the year was Xiaohe. Well, this shows that the sharp increase in the money supply is an important reason for the rapid rise in housing prices. As one expert said, in the final analysis, housing prices are the direct consideration of the currency, and if they continue to grow like this, no matter what kind of policies are introduced, it will be difficult for housing prices to fall deeply.

There are many reasons for the rise in urban property prices, but the rise in house prices has been more prominent since the beginning of the year. In Xiao Zhen's view, the reason behind the continuous rise in housing prices is the growth of the money supply. In the old years, the annualized growth rate of China's broad money was 24 dollars, and the growth of Lin's money by subtracting the existing economic growth can be roughly concluded that there is an excess currency circulation in gills. Excess money circulation will inevitably push up house prices, and "excess money in the gills will double property prices during the year." As the third generation of the Xiao family, he clearly knows that from the past few years to the present, the central bank prints paper money at a rate of about a quarter every year, while the economic growth rate is about a concave percent. Wine inflation is in, the basis is around, and the calculation of compound interest is the annual demand, so why does the supply of broad money in China maintain such a rapid growth for such a long time? Xiao Zhen also knows that it is because the nature of China's economic growth is "three highs", high inflation drives high growth, and high unemployment solves. China's economy should get out of the "world factory." The overcapacity crisis inherent in the model must be transformed to domestic demand-oriented. To expand domestic demand, it is necessary to accelerate the development of urbanization, so urbanization is the theme of China's economy in the coming years. This rapid urbanization has exacerbated the long-standing employment problem in cities. In order to solve the problem of unemployment, the government can only absorb the unemployed through higher economic growth. As we all know, the driving force of China's economic growth is the "troika, that is, the consumption of the mouth." After the financial crisis. The sharp decline in exports has led to a shift from positive to negative for exports, and the investment-driven driver has replaced exports, contributing more than a large amount to economic growth. In the investment-driven sector, government-led investment contributes more than a percentage, while the source of funding for government investment comes from excess currency issuance. Taken together, these three figures represent a growth model of excess money driving government investment, which has often been a troika for many years. Running in the hood.

Some people may ask why excess money must flow to the investment market because there are many places where it goes. In this regard, Xiao Zhen believes that there are three main flows after the excess money is injected into the banking system: one is to flow to the manufacturing production field; the second is the flow to the consumer goods market; The third is the flow to the investment market. In a market environment where the manufacturing industry is facing overcapacity, excess money will choose to flow into the consumer goods and investment markets, and the inflow into the consumer goods market will produce inflation. Inflows into the investment market can create asset bubbles. The government finds that inflation in the consumer goods market undoubtedly unweighs out its painstaking efforts to tackle unemployment, or that instead of subjecting the majority to the threat of inflation and fearing job losses, it is better to allow a few to divert excess money in the feast of asset bubbles. Therefore. In this kind of high money issuance drives high government investment, high government investment drives high growth of the national economy, the purpose is to resolve the high unemployment of the "four highs" economic growth model, the central bank suddenly large recovery of excess money is impossible, once the outflow of money out of the banking system is reflected in the old growth of broad money, it is difficult to suddenly slow down, the relevant stakeholders in the economic operation in the torrent of money to benefit together, no one will give up the certainty of the actual benefits because of uncertain future risks.

Xiao Zhen believes that the reason why housing prices can continue to rise is that houses have changed from consumer goods to investment goods in China. At that time, in China, the demand for jumping houses came from investment demand rather than consumption demand. That is, consumers buy one house, and investors will buy four houses, which is completely opposite to European and American countries. Europe and the United States, as mature countries, investors buy one house, consumers buy four houses, this is one. "The Law of Twenty-Eight,

If a house is a consumer product, then it must meet two most basic criteria, the first is the rate of return on funds, that is, the house price is equal to the old year; The second is the house-price-to-income ratio, that is, the house price does not exceed the disposable income of the household from Qiqi to Wei. The reality is that now the rental return is Feng Zhili Nian, and it is impossible for the average urban wage earner to buy the house he is satisfied with with in his lifetime.

Xiao Ke also knows that the definition of real estate as an investment product is also stipulated by the state. Because in the four concaves in China, the "residence" in the clothing, food and land is the statistical rent, not the price of real estate, and the real estate in the United States is as high as Oh, Americans regard real estate as a consumer product, so the rigid demand for real estate in Huaxia does not come from consumption. It's about investment. Therefore, the investment attributes of real estate determine that the reasonable standard of housing prices is not determined by the income and expectations of locals, but by the income of outsiders and the expectations of outsiders.

In the end, Xiao Ai came to the conclusion that it was an investment product. There are two driving forces that determine urban housing prices: the flow of money and the flow of money, so the bursting of the housing bubble will occur at the end of urbanization. Prior to that, the longer the bubble lasted, the higher the percentage of virtual into reality. The faster the income of residents grows, the higher the chance of turning the tide into a disaster. So, be able to dance with risk wealth. Grow with asset bubbles.

But it's hard, almost unlikely. So Xiao Zhen didn't feel relieved because he had come to such a conclusion, on the contrary. He was terrified that in such a situation, how could the government allow ordinary people to fend for themselves? Whether it is to guide the people in having more mature housing values, and more importantly, the government must also have practical means to ensure that housing prices do not "ruin a generation.!"

However, this method is by no means to be regulated at the end of the day, because it is basically impossible to succeed. If it really comes to the group decision, and then it is time to regulate it, it can only be like some people in martial arts who have gone crazy in practice, if they want to return to normal, unless they abandon their martial arts.

But this is neither what Xiao Zhen wants to see, nor is it acceptable to the government.

On the first day of the first lunar month, I wish you all a new year and a new atmosphere, and Vientiane is renewed; New year, new steps, step by step!

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