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"Than Paul. Krugman's more popular economist in Asia seems to be John Krugman. Nesbit? Ye Jianbin said. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info

"You mean Nesbitt's "Asian Megatrends"?" Zhang Ke asked Ye Jianbin, "Is there a publishing house in China that translates his monograph?" I only have an English copy in my hand. His views are indeed very popular in Asia, and there should be translations in China. ”

"Well, the Foreign Languages Publishing House published the Chinese version in July, and my third uncle recommended me to read it," Ye Jianbin said with a smile, "After all, everyone is willing to listen to good words." ”

"It turned out to be recommended by the third uncle. Nesbitt's point of view is really popular. Zhang Ke smiled and said, "Nesbit's optimistic estimation that the rising Asia will become the center of the future world, and Asia will continue to prosper, I also like to hear this, but Nesbitt ignores some shortcomings in the economic development model of Asia, especially in East Asian countries, which are still very serious, but we should pay attention to the ......."

Ye Zhenmin, the third uncle of Ye Jianbin and the third son of Ye Zufan, is a member of the leading party group of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, in charge of the Asian Department, and although it is not ranked high among the nearly 20 vice ministers of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, the Asian Department is the department with real power second only to the US Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation.

Hearing Zhang Ke say this, Ye Jianbin became energetic, holding a wine glass, and leaning over: "You advocate that Jiaxin Industrial temporarily slow down the expansion of business in Southeast Asia, do you have such a judgment for a long time?" ”

The earliest cooperation between Zhang Ke and Jiaxin Industrial is to put the brand agency rights of Aida DVD player in Southeast Asia and a part of the cash into Jiaxin Industrial, in exchange for the status of the second shareholder of Jiaxin Industrial, although the agency of Aida DVD player in Southeast Asia is placed in Jiaxin Industrial, Zhang Ke persuaded Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others to temporarily slow down the large-scale expansion of the DVD player business in the southeast region, just use the current resources to organize production and sales, the most important move is to unite the Ye family to invest in Huishan Xiangxuehai, To fully develop Xiang Xuehai's refrigerator business in China, Ye Xiaotong also asked Zhang Ke to instigate Xiang Xuehai to be responsible for market operations.

"Oh, sort of," Zhang Ke smiled, "You may miss some opportunities, but the most important rule of business is to survive, Jiaxin Industrial was not in a very good situation at that time, and a more stable business strategy is needed, such a large domestic market needs to be developed, of course, it is the first to develop domestic business." ”

Today, among the four major shareholders of Jiaxin Industrial, Yuexiu (Hong Kong) ranks first, Shengxin Group ranks fourth, and the shares held by Sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde, who are the second and third largest shareholders, are nominally owned by the Ge family, who is the nominal largest shareholder of Jiaxin Industrial.

Since the beginning of June, Xiang Xuehai formally controlled Xiang Xuehai Electrical Appliance Group Co., Ltd., Xiang Xuehai's refrigerator business growth rate has risen rapidly to the highest level in 94 and 95, due to Xiang Xuehai and South Korea's Samsung Group negotiations for more than a year have been suspected of abandoning business, to regain the "South Xiang Xuehai, North Haier" white electricity market position, but also after the new production line of Xiang Xuehai Electric Appliance Group put into operation. Xiang Xuehai's refrigerator business began to recover in the third quarter, and the net profit in the name of Jiaxin Industrial in the third quarter has been as high as 10 million, and Jiaxin Industrial finally has a good-looking quarterly report in the third quarter after deducting financial costs, which supports the value judgment of early investors on Jiaxin Industrial, and the stock price of Jiaxin Industrial has been on the rise; These undoubtedly prove the correctness of Zhang Ke's judgment, of course, it can be expected in advance, otherwise Zhang Ke would not be able to persuade Sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde to adopt his suggestion.

"The economic environment in East Asia is much more complicated," Zhang Ke continued......, "and the recent acceleration of the influx of international hot money into these regions will further exacerbate the previous drawbacks; In addition, in recent years, the liquidity of international speculative capital has been increasingly relaxed, and the Institute has just released a data, and the scale of hot money with sufficient liquidity has reached one trillion US dollars, and no matter how credible the data of the Institute is, the scale of international hot money is not small. With such a sharp weapon, do you dare to say that there is no fierce hunter behind it? ”

Zhang Ke has only had time to study Paul this year. Krugman's economic theory and the macroeconomic situation in East Asia, the previous judgment, naturally took advantage of the rebirth, and took the historical events that happened with Paul. Krugman's economic theories corroborate each other, and then fully collect the economic data of Asian countries for analysis, Zhang Ke naturally has more full confidence to point out the serious shortcomings in the economies of Asian countries, but his influence is really limited, in addition to Ye Jianbin, Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others, how many people will agree with his views is really doubtful.

Of course, there are some issues that can be communicated with Xu Xueping, Ye Zhenmin and others, but Zhang Ke has only recently studied some issues thoroughly, and he can't directly point out that an extremely serious economic crisis will break out in Asia next year.

"Well, what are you two big men doing together?"

Zhang Ke glanced back, Sun Jingmeng was standing behind him with her hands crossed on her waist, close to each other, and the tip of her nose almost touched her tall chest. Zhang Ke is not the kind of person who does not take advantage of it, but Sun Jingmeng's cheapness, he didn't dare to take advantage of it casually, leaned over to the bar, sniffed the faint aroma from Sun Jingmeng's body, and turned his head to look at Tang Jing and them. The other staff of the bar have already come one after another, Tang Jing, Chen Feirong, Su Yiting and the three girls can't intervene, they are sitting inside drinking drinks and chatting.

Zhang Ke and Ye Jianbin discussed the Asian economy speculatively, and their heads were almost together, and Zhang Ke also took out a pen and a napkin to write out some key economic data and draw a diagram for Ye Jianbin to see.

"How old are you that you still like to scribble on napkins?" Sun Jingmeng reached over and took a stack of napkins densely filled with data and linear graphs drawn with red pens, stared at it for a while, but didn't understand, "What are they?" ”

"You can't read it," Ye Jianbin took the napkin from Sun Jingmeng's hand, "You won't be interested in these things." Spreading the napkin on the bar, tapping his fingers on the bar, and holding his chin with one hand, Zhang Ke also turned around and sat upright, ignoring Sun Jingmeng.

"How do you know I'm not interested in this stuff?" Sun Jingmeng puffed out her cheeks and tied her hair, she was also taking care of the bar very seriously during this time, and the contempt of Ye Jianbin and Zhang Ke made her feel uncomfortable.

"Then you come and see," Ye Jianbin moved a position to the side and let Sun Jingmeng sit between him and Zhang Ke, "Looking at this thing is dizzy and affects appetite...... Ah, it's time for the takeout we ordered, right? He looked up at his watch, then back at the bar.

Zhang Ke glanced at Sun Jingmeng wearing a smoky gray short-sleeved cashmere sweater, in addition to the white and tender arms exposed, but also exposed a large piece of smooth back muscles, she was lying on the bar to look at the data and some economic terms written on the napkin, Zhang Ke didn't dare to look more, lying on the bar, but inevitably saw a corner of Sun Jingmeng's chest exposed white and tender, so he had to sit up straight and look over Sun Jingmeng's head and talk to Ye Jianbin .

"Just watch it if you want to, I don't mind, and I won't say anything to your little girlfriend." Sun Jingmeng glanced at Zhang Ke, said this, but still pulled her shirt and covered the white flesh exposed between her back and hips.

Sun Jingmeng's glance was still quite sultry, Zhang Ke scratched his nose, didn't dare to provoke this demon girl, and walked to the other side of Ye Jianbin and sat down.

Ye Jianbin smiled, last year Zhang Ke and Xu Si were guests at Sun's house together, and they spent a lot of time in contact with Sun Jingmeng, Sun Jingmeng will be a little suspicious, some things, the parties know it, if it is inadvertently pierced by others, then it is called old life, no wonder Zhang Ke didn't even have a word of ridicule at this time, probably wishing that Sun Jingmeng would ignore his existence. Ye Jianbin also turned sideways and ignored Sun Jingmeng, and said to Zhang Ke: "When will you go to Beijing, or will I ask the third uncle to come here to talk to you?" ”

Naturally, we are talking about the macroeconomic situation in Asia.

The mainstream view of the economic situation in Asia, especially in East Asia, has always been quite optimistic. Krugman's views are non-mainstream and not taken seriously by the mainstream group. Krugman's economic theory is naturally more convincing if it provides more detailed arguments.

Take the old man's words, "In the past 20 years of reform and opening up, I have never met a person who can understand an industry better than this young man", Zhang Ke's opinion, not to mention Ye Jianbin anymore, the rest of the Ye family attaches great importance to it. Shengxin's transformation into a home appliance chain is also a decision after listening to Zhang Ke's opinion after carefully inspecting the market, only a little more than a year has passed, it seems that this move is the most successful move in business by the Ye family in recent years. Using the influence of Ye Zhenmin and other Ye family connections in Shanghai and Zhejiang, Shengxin Global Electric has completed the layout of the home appliance chain industry in Shanghai and Zhejiang, and the assets of this piece alone have rapidly expanded to as much as 500 million; Ericsson's mobile phone agency business in East China continues to provide considerable funds for Shengxin's development, but it is no longer the most important business of the Ye family. It is also because of the rapid development of Shengxin Global Electrical Appliance Group that it has grasped the opportunity in a measured manner, so that Ye Jianbin has rapidly risen in the Ye family's status and has become the representative of the Ye family in the business community.

Although Zhang Ke clearly pointed out that the impact of the Asian financial turmoil on the country is more beneficial than disadvantageous, mainly because the financial industry policy implemented by the State Council in the past few years has largely resolved some of the shortcomings of the domestic economy, and it is also after the Asian financial crisis that the country ushered in a golden decade of economic development, but having a more accurate judgment of the Asian economic situation will undoubtedly benefit the domestic economy more......

Ye Zhenmin is in charge of the Asian Department in the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, directly handles economic and trade affairs with Asian countries, and is one of the important figures in formulating economic and trade policies for Asian countries. Although it is not a big deal to misestimate the economic situation in Asia by following the crowd, if we can accurately predict the economic situation in Asia and benefit our domestic economic and trade activities with East Asian countries, it will definitely be a glorious stroke in our political career.

Ye Jianbin therefore hopes that Zhang Ke will have a chat with his third uncle Ye Zhenmin.

"Can't you just tell me?" Zhang Ke said, "I have nothing to do in the past two days, if you are free, I will brag to you more." ”

"I'll relay it, I may not be able to explain the problem thoroughly, or let the third uncle come back," Ye Jianbin is more acceptable to Zhang Ke's judgment, as for whether his third uncle Ye Zhenmin can accept it, it is unknown, and let them talk face-to-face to explain the problem thoroughly, and remember one thing again, "Liu Zhijun invited you to meet, will you talk about this?" ”

"If they are willing to listen, of course I will say," Zhang Ke said, "after all, there are several big projects in the province, and Tao Jin has to nod himself." ”

"That project between Tokai United Steel and Tonihon Steel?" Ye Jianbin asked.

In order to make Xiaogang County, southeast of Jianye City, an important steel production base in the east, the province launched the Tokai United Steel Project last year, and planned to import the equipment and technology required for the project from Japan, and finally selected the Tonippon Steel Group, a subsidiary of the Mitsui Foundation, to negotiate cooperation.

At the beginning of April, angry at the arrogance and rudeness of little Japan, Zhang Ke, Ye Jianbin and Li Yijiang and others single-handedly brewed the Fuchun Pavilion to buy spring incidents, which made the Japanese negotiators' behavior of buying spring at the Fuchun Pavilion Hotel and insulting China exposed to the public.

The incident, in the province set off a wave of anti-Japanese, anti-South Korean thought, also made the project negotiations for a time, the province also expressed that the suspension of negotiations does not matter the tough attitude, East Nippon Steel knew that it was a loss, will be involved in the Fuchun Pavilion purchase of spring incident of the negotiation team personnel all recalled, another personnel to restart the negotiations.

Zhang Ke nodded and said, "Yes, but it's more than that." ”

"Oh?"

"I very much agree with Paul. Krugman's perception of the economic situation in Asia," Zhang Ke said lightly, "although Nesbitt's view that Asia will continue to prosper is more popular at this time." The prevalence of Nesbit's view can be said to be one of the catalysts for the influx of a large amount of hot money into East Asian countries in recent years, and a large amount of speculative hot money and the economic shortcomings of East Asian countries themselves are very likely to induce economic crises to break out in these regions. ”

"Hmm!" From the detailed data collected by Zhang Ke, Ye Jianbin is also inclined to think that there is a high possibility of a local economic crisis in East Asia.

"If the Asian economy is going to be turbulent, it will start in Southeast Asia first, especially in Thailand, Indonesia and other countries The economic shortcomings are particularly serious, and the ability to prevent crises is poor; In the past two decades, Southeast Asia has been Japan's largest exporter of capital, and the economic instability in Southeast Asia will inevitably affect Japan, first and foremost in the exchange rate. The yen has fallen against the dollar, and the renminbi is relatively strong, and if the funds needed to introduce equipment and technology for the steel project can obtain yen loans in Japan, they can at least profit from the exchange rate. ”

At this time, the takeaway was delivered to the store, and it was necessary to hurry up and finish dinner to start the night business, Zhang Ke and Ye Jianbin temporarily stopped discussing these issues, and beckoned Tang Jing and them to come over and prepare together. Sun Jingmeng took the napkin that Zhang Ke had just written down a string of economic data, and after looking at it for a long time, she couldn't see the reason, and threw the napkin to Ye Jianbin angrily, and saw Ye Jianbin put away these napkins as if he were a treasure, his black and white eyes flipped a few times, and his momentum was snatched, but he couldn't say anything sharp. She didn't understand that Zhang Ke was still in high school, why could he know this?

After dinner, cleaned up, the bar officially started the day's business, Tang Jing, Chen Feirong, Su Yiting and they entered and exited a place like the bar for the first time, watching the flow of people pouring in, very excited; Zhang Ke and Ye Jianbin found a corner to continue their unfinished topic before dinner.

Speaking of the Tokai United Steel Project, this is the largest investment project in the history of Tokai Province, involving an amount of up to 10 billion yuan, of which nearly 780% of the funds will be used for equipment and technology generated from Tohoku Steel, and the source of funds is a very important negotiation project.

If we can obtain all the yen loans from Japan, introduce equipment and technology, and postpone the loan repayment period to the next 98 years, after the Asian financial crisis in '98, the yen has fallen sharply against the US dollar, and the renminbi exchange rate is strong, this part alone can actually reduce the repayment of more than 30% of the loan.

Japan was one of the first countries to provide government loans to China, and in the 30 years from 79 to 2008, the Japanese government provided aid loans totaling about 2.9 trillion yen to China, accounting for 60% of the official aid loans received from foreign countries in China. The Japanese government's aid loans to China have deep historical and political factors (China has given up its demand for war reparations against Japan, and Japan needs to improve Sino-Japanese relations), but the main economic reason is that Japanese companies have obtained a large number of contracts in loans to China, so as to enter the Chinese market in a big way and promote the development of the Japanese economy.

The cooperation between Tokai United Steel Group and Tonihon Steel can obtain low-interest loans from Japan through official negotiations.

In addition, although the country resisted the invasion of the Asian financial turmoil, but the economy in '98 and '99 was still affected to a certain extent, and the State Council put forward appropriate measures according to the situation at that time to defuse the pressure of the economic slowdown, but vigorously developing real estate and education and other industries to stimulate domestic demand, but also left many problems for people's livelihood in the future.

Zhang Ke had some exchanges with Xu Xueping on these issues before, if Tao Jin, the secretary of the provincial party committee, could also accept Paul. Krugman's judgment on the Asian economic situation is that Tokai Province can make some preparations before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis and increase investment in infrastructure construction -- 40 percent of the Japanese Government's aid loans to China should be used for infrastructure construction -- and strengthen negotiations with the Japanese Government to increase as much as possible the amount of Japan's aid loans to China this year and next year for the construction of the provincial highway network, railway network, Xiaojiang embankment, and other infrastructure facilities.

The benefits of this will naturally emerge one by one after the Asian financial crisis.

However, the Japanese government's aid loans to China are of great political significance, and the 80s were usually used as an important bargaining chip for the Japanese prime minister to improve Sino-Japanese relations when he visited China. Since the 90s, in order to meet the needs of Japanese companies to enter the Chinese market on a large scale, the conditions for relevant loans have been gradually relaxed, but without the support of Tao Jin, the secretary of the provincial party committee, and even the central government, a series of plans, especially to obtain yen loans to increase investment in the province's infrastructure, Xu Xueping would have been difficult to promote success.

Even if you can't get low-interest bailout loans, you can directly benefit from the Asian financial crisis if you get a business loan from Japan, as long as you negotiate a project before the Japanese economy was affected in '98.

Of course, Zhang Ke is not without his own interests.

Xiangxuehai will introduce new production lines and technologies this year and next year, and Xinguang Paper will also expand its papermaking capacity this year and next, with a total of nearly one billion yuan in project finance on both sides. Zhang Ke is inclined to cooperate with Japanese and Korean enterprises, and Japanese and Korean enterprises are trustworthy in terms of technology and machinery manufacturing in these two aspects, but with the private influence of Xiangxuehai and Xinguang Paper, the possibility of obtaining commercial loans from Japan is extremely small (it is even more impossible to obtain bailout yen loans), Zhang Ke wants the projects of Xiangxuehai and Shin Kong Paper to take a free ride in the province and become a sub-project of the provincial package of projects. Nearly half of Xiangxuehai's shares are state-owned, and Xinguang Paper has a reason to enjoy some convenience by planting large-scale forests in the middle and upper reaches of the Xiaojiang River and planning to build a large-scale pulp production base.

These are just a few of the ways in which Zhang Ke has a complete plan.