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Chapter 416: Race against Death

Zhang Qingchuan took out a few handwritten materials from his backpack and carefully handed them to Han Qin. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ｂｉｑUｇE。 info Han Qin took it and looked at it a few times, which recorded in detail the data observed by Zhang Qingchuan and his partners, the extremely abnormal conditions of geomagnetic waves, organisms, plants, and meteorology, as well as the detailed comparison with the pre-earthquake warning of the Tangshan earthquake.

Based on these data, Zhang Qingchuan made a bold guess that during the Spring Festival, a major earthquake will occur in the Gyeongju area, with a magnitude of 8 or higher, and the epicenter is located in the urban area of Gyeongju.

Han Qin glanced at Zhang Qingchuan and said indifferently: "Teacher Zhang, earthquake forecasting, especially such a strong earthquake forecast, is not a trivial matter, according to the regulations, you should first report to the Gyeongju Earthquake Bureau, and then let them review and verify, and report it level by level." ”

Zhang Qingchuan let out a long sigh and said helplessly: "Director Han, after discovering these extremely abnormal phenomena, I immediately wrote a report and prepared to report it to the Gyeongju Earthquake Bureau. After I got there, people were busy with the Chinese New Year, handing out money, goods and benefits, and no one came forward to receive me.

In the end, they saw that I was there and did not leave, and sent a deputy director of the office to deal with me. The deputy director took my materials in an official tone, and asked me to go back without reading them. And teach me that earthquake observation and prediction is a very professional and advanced scientific research, and it is not something that can be done by just Zhang San and Li Si. For the New Year, don't block everyone's hearts. This news will stop here, and it is not allowed to spread outside, otherwise, be careful that the *** organ will charge you with rumors, and please go to the detention center for the New Year.

Time was very tight, and I was worried that the Gyeongju Earthquake Bureau would not take my report seriously and would go directly to the Provincial Earthquake Bureau to report on the response. The Provincial Earthquake Bureau has been on the Spring Festival holiday, and only the guards are on duty there, and I can't even enter the door. In desperation, I knew that even during the Spring Festival, the leaders of the provincial party committee were on duty, so I hurried over and prepared to report to the provincial party committee. ”

Zhang Qingchuan said eagerly: "Director Han, you must report to the provincial party committee, this is a major matter related to the life and death of millions of people in Gyeongju, as long as the state takes preventive measures in advance, a residual drama can be avoided, and how many families will not lose their relatives like me and live alone." As he spoke, two tears rolled down Zhang Qingchuan's thin cheeks!

Han Qin's heart suddenly moved! He has also read many reports, and many experts and scholars have their own opinions on whether earthquakes can be accurately predicted. Some people think that according to the existing scientific knowledge of mankind, it is impossible to make forecasts at all, and even if they can make forecasts, the rate of underreporting is very high, and the predictions are only hit once in 20 times, which is meaningless at all, but makes the people panic, and social production and life stop, and the gains outweigh the losses!

The U.S. government heeded the advice of the RAND Corporation, a think tank, and compared the social and economic benefits at all, and did not conduct earthquake prediction research at all, let alone set up relevant organizations, but carried out high-standard fortification in housing construction. The Americans believe that earthquakes are inevitable and losses are inevitable if the forecast is accurate or not, and that as long as the house is solidified, the legal means are used to enforce the rules, and the casualties of the people are avoided as much as possible, and the expected goal is achieved.

Some domestic experts, especially some veteran experts, believe that our country's earthquake prediction level has been in the forefront of the world, and as long as scientific and technological workers have the responsibility and responsibility, it is completely possible to accurately predict strong earthquakes. Experts who support this opinion often cite the accurate prediction of the Haicheng earthquake and the Tangshan Qinglong miracle as arguments.

Seeing Zhang Qingchuan shed tears, Han Qin understood his mood very well at this time, if he could accurately predict a strong earthquake, he could save the lives of thousands of people, and the tragedy of how many families could be avoided, this is definitely a great good deed with immeasurable merit!

Han Qin quietly activated the auxiliary system and wanted to consult the beautiful secretary to see if the system had made a breakthrough in earthquake prediction. Can you bring a little surprise?

Hu Mei came fluttering, Han Qin gave her concerns to the beautiful secretary for an exchange, and Hu Mei replied with certainty that in the field of earthquake prediction, the whole world is a problem. Compared to other areas of technology, especially weather forecasting, the development of technology is very lagging behind.

The forecasting technology mastered by the system is 30 years ahead of the current state-of-the-art technology, and in the medium and long-term earthquake prediction, the system can achieve an accuracy rate of more than 98% in a time span of 5 to 50 years. However, there are still considerable uncertainties in the prediction of earthquakes, especially in the three elements of time, place and magnitude.

Thirty years ahead? Han Qin was overjoyed and hurriedly asked the beautiful secretary what level the system could reach for the prediction of a strong earthquake. Hu Mei patiently explained to Han Qin that in terms of time, the system can be accurate to three days before and after, and the error radius is 30 kilometers at the specific epicenter location. In the magnitude prediction, the error is one level higher than the other.

Hu Mei regretfully told Han Qin that she should not underestimate the magnitude error of this magnitude, and the actual reflected earthquake energy and damage level reached more than 30 times. An earthquake that is predicted to be magnitude 7, if it actually happens only magnitude 6, basically there is not much harm, but once the actual magnitude reaches magnitude 8, it becomes a huge disaster!

After listening to Hu Mei's specific explanation, Han Qin was like a treasure, under the current technical conditions, it is completely enough to have such a level of forecasting! The quality of housing in China, especially in rural areas, is not up to par, and it is more cost-effective to accurately predict a strong earthquake, even if the people spend a week in panic, than to cause huge casualties!

Han Qin took the information observed by Zhang Qingchuan to Hu Mei, and asked the beautiful secretary to judge whether there would be a strong earthquake in the Gyeongju area in the near future.

After carefully reading the information provided by Zhang Qingchuan, Hu Mei gave a systematic opinion after a little thought. Judging from Zhang Qingchuan's information, although the instruments and methods he used were very backward, his work was very solid and meticulous. If these data and phenomena do exist, a strong earthquake will definitely occur in the Gyeongju area in the near future. As for whether the magnitude of the earthquake will reach magnitude 8 and the specific location of the epicenter, it is difficult to determine based on these data alone.

Hu Mei paused for a moment, quickly entered the National Earthquake Administration's testing network and the database of the Donghai Provincial Earthquake Bureau, and quickly reviewed valuable data. Hu Meifei solemnly told Han Qin that the detection instruments equipped with the domestic seismic network are very advanced, but their analysis technology is still very backward, and they cannot draw correct conclusions about the detection data.

According to the analysis of the existing observation data of the seismic network, the Gyeongju area is already in a state of earthquake, and the probability of a strong earthquake is very high. Han Qin only needs to go to the field for a field investigation, and the system can make accurate predictions based on the real-time geomagnetic waves and rock formation changes of the earth.

Seeing that the system confirmed that a strong earthquake was going to occur in Gyeongju in the near future, Han Qin also suddenly became nervous. Gyeongju is located in the northwest of Donghae Province, although the economy is not too developed, mainly agriculture, but the population is dense, and the rural housing structure is mainly brick and wood, and there are very few reinforced concrete empty frame structures, which basically do not have earthquake-proof functions. It is now the Spring Festival holiday, and the farmers who went out to work have also returned to their hometowns, and the population is highly concentrated.

Han Qin also knows very well that the government's issuance of an earthquake warning to an area is a matter that affects the whole body, and it needs to be considered comprehensively and approved at all levels, and decisions will not be made in a hurry. In the 60 years since the founding of the Republic, there has been an official earthquake warning issued by the government, and there is only one time in Haicheng!

For this only forecast, from the medium-term forecast to the decision on the earthquake, the state organized a lot of manpower and material resources to carry out mass control and mass prevention, which took more than three years! With the information provided by an amateur earthquake enthusiast, it is difficult to imagine how difficult it is to form a government decision within three days!

As the first secretary of the provincial party committee, although Han Qin's level is not high, due to his special work, he can access many confidential documents. At least in the near term, Han Qin did not see the Provincial Earthquake Bureau submit an earthquake warning report to the Provincial Party Committee, and the National Earthquake Administration did not communicate with Donghai Province.

That is to say, the relevant departments of the state have not yet been aware of this demon that is about to wreak havoc on the land of Gyeongju, and have not provided any notification to the government decision-making departments. Under such circumstances, it is difficult for a private earthquake observer to go up and down to attract high-level attention, and it can even be regarded as spreading rumors to confuse the public. Zhang Qingchuan's voice was too weak, and if there was no one to help, it would be impossible for the top management to hear it at all.

Time is pressing, according to the analysis of the system, this big earthquake will come soon, for a prefecture-level city, it needs to be forecast at least one day in advance to have fortification significance! According to the current decision-making procedure, the provincial party committee and the provincial government need a lot of time for analysis and demonstration to issue such an earthquake early warning! Fighting for every minute, every second, is a race against death!

Han Qin said solemnly: "Teacher Zhang, the information you provided is very important, I will take you to the General Office of the Provincial Party Committee to report to the leader in charge immediately." ”

After getting out of the car, Han Qin walked to the front of the sentry box. Seeing Han Qin coming, the two security cadres hurriedly greeted him and said with a smile: "Director Han, what are your orders?" Han Qin Zhengse said: "This old gentleman is indeed a retired teacher in Gyeongju, and he has an important situation to report to the leaders of the provincial party committee. I'm going to take him to the General Office of the Provincial Party Committee, do you still need any formalities here? ”

The two security cadres looked at each other, since the first secretary of the provincial party committee wanted to take people away, where could they be qualified to stop them! After a few seconds of silence, the middle-aged man smiled and said, "Director Han, the procedures here are very simple, it's just a walk-through procedure, you just need to sign it, and you can take this old gentleman away!" ”

The middle-aged man nodded to his companion, who immediately understood what the middle-aged man meant, quickly took out a folder from the sentry box, and hurriedly wrote a few strokes on it. The middleman also wrote a few words on the folder from his companion's hand, and then respectfully handed it to Han Qin.

Han Qin glanced at the folder and saw that there were four big words written on it: "Duty Record". The middle-aged man pointed with his finger and said with a smile: "Director Han, you sign in the leader's opinion column behind the handling result, and today's incident will be handled and understood." Han Qin took the pen and signed his name with a phoenix.

Driving up Quancheng Avenue, Han Qin was thinking about how to deal with this matter while driving. It is very easy to bring Zhang Qingchuan to the General Office of the Provincial Party Committee, but it is not difficult for him to go to the Provincial Party Committee, the key is how to convince the leaders of the Provincial Party Committee that what Zhang Qingchuan said is true.

Han Qin has the assistance of the auxiliary system, and he knows that the Gyeongju area is approaching, and he is anxious, but he can't go into battle shirtless! The leaders of the provincial party committee are ordinary people, and it is not easy to get them to believe the forecast of a non-governmental amateur earthquake observer when the national earthquake network has not provided any report!

The car soon arrived in front of the provincial party committee compound, and Han Qin completed the relevant procedures in the guardhouse and led Zhang Qingchuan into the provincial party committee compound. Zhang Qingchuan looked at the heavily guarded compound of the provincial party committee and realized that his actions were really too naïve, and without the help of the first secretary of the provincial party committee, he would not have been able to enter the compound at all, let alone meet the leaders of the provincial party committee.

The provincial party committee has not arrived for the time being, and Han Qin arranged Zhang Qingchuan to rest temporarily in the lounge. From Zhang Qingchuan's anxious and tired expression, Han Qin felt that this old teacher might not have eaten lunch yet. Han Qin called boiling water and personally soaked a bucket of beef noodles for Zhang Qingchuan.

Smelling the tempting aroma of beef noodles, Zhang Qingchuan's eyes were red, and he said excitedly: "Director Han, thank you!" People say that Hades is so cheap and difficult, and I really realized it today! The more big cadres like you, the more approachable you are, without a little arrogance! As long as this disaster is avoided, the people of Gyeongju will not forget the good guys! ”

Han Qin said sincerely: "Teacher Zhang, you don't have to be polite. I'm not a big cadre, but an ordinary staff member of the provincial party committee. No one with a conscience would watch disaster befall the people. The people of Gyeongju should be grateful to you, regardless of personal gains and losses, and made a special trip to the provincial capital to report to the government. ”

Zhang Qingchuan sighed and said: "Director Han, people who have not experienced a disaster like me can't understand this bleak mood at all, especially when it comes to the festival、、、 I have already thought about it, if the government doesn't believe my forecast results, I will spend money to hire a car to Gyeongju to publicize, even if a family believes in my words and can avoid this disaster, I will go to prison, and I can rest assured!" ”

After chatting with Zhang Qingchuan in the lounge for a few minutes, Han Qin went to the duty room of the provincial party committee. The Provincial Party Committee has a series of major activities today, and Wei Xianxian, Secretary General of the Provincial Party Committee, is personally on duty.

Seeing Han Qin arrive, Wei Xianfeng warmly shook hands with Han Qin and greeted him, and asked with concern: "Director Han, Li *** is also almost here, right?" Han Qin looked at his watch and said with a smile: "I contacted Staff Officer Li on the way, they should have entered the Liucheng city area by now, and it will be almost a long time in ten minutes." ”

Wei Xianfeng let Han Qin sit down on the sofa next to him, and Wei Xianfeng gave Han Qin a detailed exchange on the specific work arrangements for tonight. After talking about things at work, Han Qin briefly reported to Wei Xianfeng about his encounter with Zhang Qingchuan on the road. As the chief steward of the provincial party committee, Wei Xianfeng plays a pivotal role in this matter.

Hearing that the first secretary of the provincial party committee said that someone predicted a strong earthquake in Gyeongju, and he was still a civilian amateur worker, Wei Xianfeng laughed, so that Han Qin did not have to worry about such a thing. Since the Wenchuan earthquake, rumors of earthquakes have been flying all over the country, and they have all said that there are noses and eyes, but the results are all false alarms. With regard to such a matter, government departments cannot intervene casually, but can only come out at a critical time to refute rumors and severely punish lawbreakers who spread rumors to confuse the public.

Wei Xianfeng mysteriously told Han Qin that his wife's hometown was in Gyeongju, and when Mrs. Wei and the old man at home called yesterday, the old man told Mrs. Wei very mysteriously and nervously that this year's Spring Festival is really a bit strange, in the winter, there was a snake in the yard, is there any omen!

Mrs. Wei told Wei Xianfeng about this strange thing, but Secretary-General Wei didn't think so, thinking that it was just a coincidence, and not to spread it as a lie. This happened in the suburbs of Liucheng a few years ago, when snakes and toads, which were supposed to hibernate underneath in the winter, suddenly crawled out of the ground. The local people were very surprised to see this rare phenomenon, and they also rumored to each other whether it was a precursor to the earthquake, which made people panic.

In order to reassure the masses and dispel rumors, the government sent a team of experts to investigate on the spot. It turned out that in the field where the snakes and toads appeared, there was a main pipe buried by the heating company. Under the influence of heating, the ground temperature gradually rises, and the biological clock of the animals that hibernate in the vicinity is disturbed, thinking that spring is coming, and they actually crawl out of the ground.

Han Qin couldn't help grinning, Secretary General Wei was tantamount to setting the tone, thinking that amateur earthquake observers like Zhang Qingchuan would not produce any results, they were grandstanding, and in serious terms, they were spreading rumors to confuse the public. Han Qin even heard Wei Xianxian's implication, as the first secretary of the provincial party committee, he should not meddle in this kind of thing, this position is too sensitive, every word and deed has unexpected energy, and it is easy to be used by others. Han Qin secretly rejoiced, fortunately, Wei Xianfeng is not the provincial party committee, and he does not have the right to make the final decision, otherwise, the people of Gyeongju will suffer!

Since Wei Xianfeng didn't think much of this matter, Han Qin didn't give him any more verbosity. Less than ten minutes later, the car of the provincial party committee drove into the compound of the provincial party committee. The two looked at each other and smiled, and hurriedly went out to greet them.

Back in the office, Li Zhihua took a break, and Han Qin made a detailed report to Li Zhihua on Zhang Qingchuan's prediction that a strong earthquake would occur in the Gyeongju area.

Hearing Han Qin say this, Li Zhihua suddenly became alert, and said meaningfully: "Xiao Han, what do you think about this matter. Li Zhihua knows Han Qin very well, and if his assistant does not have his own unique views, he will not report this kind of hearsay directly to him.

Han Qin said solemnly: "Li ***, my personal opinion, I should let the earthquake department immediately conduct a review meeting. Before the Tangshan earthquake and the Wenchuan earthquake, civil earthquake researchers and our seismic network had observed abnormal data, but they did not pay attention to it, and the result was missed, causing irreparable losses, and the international spread of false information also brought a great negative impact on the country. ”

Li Zhihua pondered for a moment and said, "Xiao Han, you inform Secretary-General Wei and ask him to convene the relevant responsible persons, and I want to listen to the report on the work of the East China Sea earthquake." ”