Section 8 Stupidity, the key lies in Taiwan
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On November 30, 2010, without achieving any results, the American financial delegation returned to Washington. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ļ½ļ½ļ½Uļ½Eć ļ½ļ½ļ½ļ½
The two sides did not even hold a joint press conference, and this signal of silence was rightfully considered a huge negative by investors around the world.
On the day the news broke, the exchange rate of U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar, which had finally gained a foothold, plummeted again.
At the same time, hard currencies such as oil and gold soared by three percent in one day, hitting new highs.
Simon's office, New York.
Simon wore glasses, and after carefully reading the thick financial records, he took off his glasses, patted the stack of financial records in front of him, and said to Yun Fei: "In order to make the stock market appear more panicked, we lost more than $30 billion a day today, but our profits in the spot and futures markets of hard currencies such as oil and gold have basically filled this gap, and we have a slight surplus of more than $7 billion, which is a good start." ā
Yun Fei looked at the glasses in front of Simon and asked with a smile: "What age is it now, why do you still like to look at paper every time you look at major financial records?" ā
Simon smiled and said, "I like the feeling of being grounded...... Bankers are always insecure, and we always believe that only what we hold in our hands is the safest. ā
"Pessimism is an essential quality of a banker." Yun Fei said, stood up, and walked to Simon's side, "In the past three days, we have absorbed more than 1.2 trillion US dollars in hard currencies such as oil and gold, and the price of hard currencies in the world has risen by more than eight percent because of our absorption. In the past three days, all the media have been puzzled by the sudden rise in this round of hard currency in a short period of time. Now, the breakdown of the high-level financial talks between China and the United States has finally solved their mystery. ā
As soon as Yun Fei said this, Simon continued: "Yes, I can almost see the headlines in the major newspapers tonight and tomorrow morning -- the breakdown of Sino-US negotiations has been foreshadowed, and oil and gold have skyrocketed by 8 percent in three days. ā
"This is just the beginning, after the breakdown of the Sino-US negotiations becomes a fact, all the public opinion we have done before will be in the dust again. We no longer need to invest even a penny in propaganda, and rumors of an economic war between China and the United States will flood the world's media. Yun Fei couldn't help but laugh when he said this, "The hard currency we hold soared by three percent in one day today, and this three percent is still on the basis of the previous cumulative increase of eight percent, which already clearly shows the orientation of the market." Even if nothing else comes out, the price of hard currency is expected to rise by more than 15 percent in the next three months, which will bring us almost $200 billion. ā
"Two hundred billion?" Simon curled the corners of his mouth, raised his feet, put them on the table, and said, "Labor is the union of our three major groups, if it is only 200 billion, it is not enough...... What about the investment of the Utopia State Investment Corporation? ā
"They're more aggressive than we are, and they've put more than $100 billion into the hard currency market in the last 72 hours, and that's pretty much all the cash they've been able to put in." Yun Fei replied.
Simon's mouth curled up slightly, and he made a shape, "When did the engineer get the money more ruthless than the banker?" ā
"No one will be gentle in a profitable business." Yun Fei smiled and said.
After Simon and Yun Fei laughed together for a while, they sighed and said, "Since we are almost ready, then we should also do it on the Taiwan side." ā
Hearing Simon say this, Yun Fei hesitated a little and said, "We still have a lot of cash in our hands, will it be too hot to release the news now?" Should we suck in some more? ā
Simon shook his head and said, "I've been thinking about this matter for a long time, no matter what, our opponent is Duan Tian Wolf. That man is a madman and can do anything. There is no point in playing all or nothing with such a person. I have calculated, even if only one-third of the funds in our hands are invested, the whole incident will be completed, and in less than half a year, our income will exceed one trillion dollars, which is already good. ā
When Simon said this, his brows furrowed, he turned his head, looked at Yun Fei, and said, "In addition, there is another very important question. If we find out what tricks Duan Tianwolf and 'Moke' are playing, we will fight to lose this third of the funds, and we will also fight against them and kill them completely. We want to make a fortune with them, because we have to guard against them at all times. But if we're going to drag them to death with us, it couldn't be easier, we have so much more chips on hand than they do. Fighting power, they can't fight us. ā
Yun Fei was silent for a while, then asked, "So, are we sure we won't buy more hard currency?" ā
Simon nodded and said, "Until the situation changes completely, I hope to keep one-third of the funds in the game and two-thirds of the funds in the state of readiness." ā
Simon said, smiled at Yun Fei, and said, "As you said, pessimism is the basic quality of a banker. Especially when the person we are dealing with is a person like Duan Tianwolf, it always doesn't hurt to be safe. ā
Yun Fei hesitated for a while, but finally said, "But you have never discussed this part of the decision with me. ā
Simon smiled and clapped his hands and said, "Aren't I just talking to you now?" What do you think of my thoughts? ā
Yun Fei blinked, smiled silently and nodded.
On December 1, 2010, Liu Zhengnan, former mayor of Kaohsiung City and current premier of Taiwan Province, was urgently summoned by the president on his way to Tainan for inspection.
Liu Zhengnan immediately canceled all trips and rushed back to Taipei overnight.
But before he could meet the president, he first met with another person in his office.
After this person met Liu Zhengnan, the two of them only had five sentences of dialogue.
"No matter what Xie Changting says, you agree." The man said straight to the point at the beginning.
Liu Zhengnan hesitated for a while and asked, "What does Xie Changting want to tell me?" ā
The man replied, "You don't have to ask me about that, you'll hear it from his mouth soon." ā
Liu Zhengnan thought for a while, and then asked: "Is it about the topic of defending the surname referendum?" When Paulson, the former chairman of the Joint Senate Chairmen, came to Taiwan a few days ago, the two of them discussed this for a long time. ā
The man replied, "No matter what Xie Changting says, you agree." ā
Twenty-five minutes after meeting this person, Liu Zhengnan appeared at the presidential palace.
"Mayor Liu." Although Liu Zhengnan is already the premier, his best political achievements have always been in Kaohsiung, which is regarded as the first important town by the DPP. Therefore, what he likes to hear most is not others calling him Dean Liu, but Mayor Liu.
Therefore, after Xie Changting made an appointment to meet Liu Zhengnan, he did not call him Dean Liu, but called him Mayor Liu.
"President, what's so urgent to summon me back?" Liu Zhengnan asked a little strangely.
"Three hours ago, I just finished talking to the head of the T (American Institute in Taiwan Council)." Xie Changting, who has always spoken mellow and is difficult to figure out, is rare to get straight to the point this time.
Liu Zhengnan looked at Xie Changting with a serious expression, although Xie Changting hadn't said anything he had talked about with T's people, but from Xie Changting's more serious expression than him, he already felt how serious the matter was.
"Is it about the topic of defending the referendum?" Liu Zhengnan asked.
Xie Changting shook his head, and then said a little apologetically: "Mayor Liu, I'm very sorry, so far, I have to be honest with you, I have something to hide from you." ā
Liu Zhengnan blinked his eyes and didn't speak, just made a deaf look.
"What I was talking to Paulson about the other day wasn't about defending the referendum." When Xie Changting said this, it seemed that he himself felt that this matter was too important for him to bear, and he paused with some exhaustion, "It's about the issue of the referendum constitution." ā
"Referendum on the constitution?" Liu Zhengnan was stunned for a while, and after a while, he suddenly said as if he had just woken up from a dream, "The name of the constitution, the jurisprudence [***]? ā
"Yes." Xie Changting frowned and nodded, and said, "At the beginning, when Paulson talked to me about this, I only thought it was a joke, thinking that it was just a retired officer's words. But today, I met with the people of T, and I pretended to talk about this in a joking, and the Americans did not even object, don't you think it's very strange about this? ā
Liu Zhengnan thought for a while, but didn't dare to answer, but asked rhetorically: "What does the president mean?" ā
Xie Changting sat up slightly straighter and said in an affirmative tone: "Judging from the current situation, Sino-US relations have entered the worst time in history. The Americans really seem to be planning to fight the Chinese, and I think this is an opportunity for us. ā
"What the president means is that you are going to hold a referendum on the constitution? If such a referendum were to be held, do you think [***] would sit idly by? Liu Zhengnan asked.
Hearing Liu Zhengnan say this, Xie Changting asked rhetorically: "Why, Mayor Liu, are you against this?" ā
Liu Zhengnan thought of the man's instructions not long ago, so he shook his head and said: "Of course not, let's not say that [***] was originally the founding purpose of our DPP. I, Liu Zhengnan, am the president of the Executive Yuan, and I have no reason to oppose anything that the president approves of. It's just that this matter is a big matter, and if you act rashly, not only you and me, but I am afraid that the whole of Taiwan will also fall into a catastrophe. ā
Hearing Liu Zhengnan's answer, Xie Changting nodded with satisfaction, "With Mayor Liu's words, I have the bottom in my heart." Since...... Mayor Liu said this kind of heart-wrenching words, I might as well say a few words from my heart...... I'm afraid the next general election will not be easy......"
As soon as he heard Xie Changting say this, Liu Zhengnan said in his heart: "Sure enough, ......"
However, Liu Zhengnan didn't say a word on his lips, just looked at Xie Changting with a reverent face.
"Now Taiwan's economy is completely inseparable from Chinese mainland, and its economic dependence has reached an incredibly high level. The Kuomintang flaunted the banner of building a common market in an all-round way, and it was very popular with the people. The Kuomintang can fight the banner of building a cross-strait common market in an all-round way, but the DPP cannot fight it. Even if you fight reluctantly, don't say that Yanjing doesn't believe it, the people don't believe it, and even we don't believe it. With the political turmoil and civil war in the past decade or so, the public's understanding of politics is no longer comparable to what it used to be. And our supporters of the Green Camp have always been passionate, and it is not good for us to choose a cold choice. So, we have to find a way to stir up the election. And at this time, there is no better way to stir up the election than to launch the topic of constitutionalization. ā
While Xie Changting was speaking, Liu Zhengnan listened to Xie Changting quietly, and it was not until Xie Changting looked at him with inquiring eyes that he thought about it very seriously and said: "The president is right, but the problem is that there are three problems. First, [***] is not our own problem in Taiwan, to put it bluntly, it is a Sino-US issue, the mainland does not care about him first, the attitude of the United States has always been to maintain the status quo, if we suddenly do this, how will the United States react. Second, even if the United States supports us, to what extent will they support us, and will their Congress promise to send troops to support us? Third, the cross-strait economic integration has reached this point, Chinese mainland's strength has expanded so rapidly, coupled with the threat of force in Chinese mainland, it is also worth doubting how much the public has realistic support for [***]. In my opinion, even if we were to overcome all difficulties and push for a successful constitutional referendum, most of them would not have passed. ā
"Mayor Liu's worries are all reasonable." Xie Changting nodded with a smile, and then said, "Let's talk from the heart, first, I don't know the attitude of the United States very clearly now. Second, even if the Americans support it, I don't think it's likely that they will fight a world war with China for us. For Chinese mainland, Taiwan is the country's top priority, but not for the United States. Chinese mainland can be blackmailed by the effect of tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, of the world for the sake of Taiwan, but the United States cannot. So, I didn't even think about getting this referendum to pass. ā
When Liu Zhengnan heard this, he completely understood, "The president just wants to use this issue to stir up the election, not really [***]?" ā
"Yes." Xie Changting nodded and said, "I personally think that the most perfect situation is that there is a very important person in our party who stands up and publicly throws out the issue of a referendum on the constitution, and let this issue be hyped on the news for half a year." And the Americans, at this time, remained unexpectedly silent. So the news became more and more hyped, so much so that when the Kuomintang-controlled parliament questioned whether I really planned to push for a constitutional referendum, I would publicly announce that I would not rule out the possibility of such a surname. At this time, I will send a special envoy to explain to Yanjing that I have to make some superficial actions perfunctory due to the coercion of Deep Green and the party, but I promise that I will never let the referendum pass, and in order to win Yanjing's trust, I can hand over the letter of guarantee written by myself. ā
"On this basis, I will focus on the theme of the referendum on the constitution, and I will always focus on the topic of Taiwan's reading ability, and lie that the United States has secretly declared its support for our actions. The United States did not stop my remarks. As a result, the referendum was signed and held in conjunction with the presidential election. In the end, the referendum didn't pass, but my president did. ā
Xie Changting's words made a thin sweat break out on Liu Zhengnan's forehead, "Write a letter of guarantee for [***] not to [***]?" If this is publicized, it will be too bad for us. ā
"If you deny it a thousand times, the truth will become a lie." Xie Changting smiled casually and said.
When Liu Zhengnan heard Xie Changting say this, he knew that he had made up his mind, so he could only ask unavoidably: "In the president's mind, who should be the most suitable high-level party member to release this rumor at the beginning?" ā
Xie Changting did not answer Liu Zhengnan's words, but raised his head and smiled, and asked rhetorically: "What does Mayor Liu think?" ā
Three days later, in December 2010.
At a meeting of reporters, Liu Zhengnan, the DPP's biggest star, the most popular, and at the same time the most popular, announced a major news in the form of a leak -- the Executive Yuan may consider introducing a referendum to sign the constitution.
As soon as these remarks came out, the entire Taiwan news was in an uproar, and no one could understand why Liu Zhengnan, who had always been pragmatic, became so unclear in his mind just a few days after he took the position of premier.
That night, there were countless famous mouths in the blue camp on the TV show, don't look at the trouble between China and the United States. On such a matter of principle, Americans dare not offend the Chinese, and the spokesman of the US State Department will certainly refute Liu Zhengnan's statement within 20 hours.
Twelve hours later, at the regular briefing of the US State Department, a Singaporean reporter mentioned the incident in Taiwan, but the US State Department spokesman's reply was only three words -- I heard it.
After another 60 hours, the island of Taiwan was already in a state of great noise, and the United States remained unusually silent.
As for this strange silence maintained by the United States, global public opinion has begun to be sensitive to the worries about whether the Sino-US cold war will develop into a hot war, and has begun to become the focus of discussion in major media.
In contrast to the situation in which the major media have their own opinions and completely different views, the response of the international capital market is simple and uniform -- the global financial market has generally fallen, and the stock markets of China and the United States have plummeted by more than 7 percent.
The most pessimistic political commentators have already predicted that there will be a war between China and the United States.
This is exactly what the sentence is said - the mountain rain is coming, and the wind is full of buildings.
(To be continued)