Chapter 041 Macroeconomic Regulation

In addition to coordinating the differences between the central and local policies in Xiaonan, Xiao Chen's trip to Xiaonan certainly had other things to do. Xu Fei took out a loan to buy a two-bedroom house in Star City, because she lived alone, the two-bedroom and one-hall did not feel small, Xiao Chen went down to see it once, but did not stay for a long time, the current identities of the two are different from the past, especially Xiao Chen in Xiaonan is to some extent on behalf of the central government's guidance on the strategy of the rise of the central part of Xiaonan, of course, be careful, so the real meeting place of the two is still in the hotel. However, it was not in the hotel where Xiao Chen stayed, but chose another one.

I haven't seen each other for a few months, and the two naturally have some lingering, Xiao Chen asked Xu Fei several times that night, and didn't do anything. Xu Fei is the best at figuring out Xiao Chen's thoughts, and she did not question it at all.

Xiao Chen's next main job was to discuss with You Jing about the use of cadres in the Langliu system. In fact, it is strange to say that Langliu's economy just became the second in the province when Xiao Chen left, and it dropped by one place two years after leaving, and now it is the third in the province, but it is strange that the number of cadres from Langliu in the provincial party committee and provincial government is quite considerable - this is not only now, but it has always been like this, Xiao Chen did not have any special feelings about this before, and only noticed it after communicating with You Jing in the past two days.

However, You Jing is very satisfied with this, because of Xiao Chen's relationship, Langliu's cadres are very cordial to You Jing, and some middle-level cadres in the province who have recently been transferred from Langliu are almost all "young" people promoted by Xiao Chen, and they have a similar innate affection for Xiao Chen's friend Governor You. And what Xiao Chen talked about with You Jing was about Vice Governor Song Qiu and Langliu New Mayor Zheng Zhipeng and others.

When Xiao Chen was the executive vice mayor of Langliu, Song Qiu was an ordinary deputy mayor and his ranking was not high, after Zhang Pingchang was transferred to the secretary of the Yuezhou Municipal Party Committee, Xiao Chen took over as mayor and recommended Song Qiu as the executive deputy mayor, and since then Song Qiu has basically become the so-called Xiao Chen. When Xiao Chen was transferred to the secretary of the Wucheng Municipal Party Committee, he recommended Song Qiu again and asked him to take over his position as mayor, and Song Qiu's feelings for Xiao Chen were even deeper. Because of this, the executive deputy mayor was succeeded by Xiao Chen's cadre, Zheng Zhipeng, then secretary of the Hanning County Party Committee.

After You Jing came to Xiaonan, a vice governor of the province arrived at the station, and after some activities, Song Qiu made up for it, and Zheng Zhipeng took the mayor. Another thing is that Gu Le was promoted to the Provincial Public Security Department as deputy director; Lin Chengnan had better luck and was transferred to Chuzhou as a full-time deputy secretary of the municipal party committee...... All in all, the few people Xiao Chen originally valued are currently in good official fortune. If there is anything else that does not go well with Lang Liu, it is that Secretary Cheng is still in power.

This Secretary Cheng, Xiao Chen does have an opinion on him, and it is definitely not a sī opinion, but an official opinion, this person is too greedy, too dark, and almost unscrupulous, Xiao Chen already has enough things in his hands, this time it is like You Jing to the bottom. Of course, all the political resources left by Xiao Chen were transferred to You Jing for use, and it was also necessary to "bring Lang Liu back on track".

Xiao Chen, who returned to the capital, was not empty, the first half of the year had already passed, due to the vigorous implementation of macroeconomic regulation and control this year, for a soft landing of the economy, now half a year has passed, all kinds of situations have been summed up, Xiao Chen, as a central think tank, also have to do some research for this, but also to face the media.

Under normal circumstances, there are relatively few top leaders who directly express their stance to the media, and only some of the central authorities have clearly affirmed that the top leaders of these major ministries and commissions who are stomping their feet in the world will publicly express their positions, otherwise, some words will be said by deputies.

For example, today, a high-level summit was held on the issue of China's economic growth, and the spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission was mainly Xiao Chen.

In the face of hundreds of reporters in the audience, Xiao Chen appeared in a black suit, elegant and calm, and according to his usual style, he did not have a speech in his hand: "Thank you host, thank you to the conference organizer for giving me such an opportunity, and I am very fortunate to have an exchange with you here." Just now, several comrades and experts have already commented on macroeconomic regulation and control in the first half of this year, and now the topic of my exchange with you is the analysis of China's economic growth data. Since the reform and opening up in recent years, China's economic development has been very rapid, and China's economic strength has been continuously improved, so more and more people are concerned about China's economic growth data. Therefore, I would like to introduce to you three issues today, one is the comments of Chinese economists on economic growth, how economists view China's economic growth rate, whether these data are correct or not, and whether they truthfully reflect China's economic growth. The second is to introduce to you the historical review and outlook of China's economic growth and its status, how it has been in the past and how it will develop in the future. The third one will give you a brief overview of economic growth in 2004, this year and next.

As for the scholars' comments on China's economic growth, I would like to divide it into two aspects, from the second one is about the recent period, why do you want to introduce these two parts? One is a comment that has a great impact on the international and domestic market, and the other is something that everyone is more concerned about recently. First of all, let's look at the comments on China's economic growth from '97 to '01, and I think the comments from scholars may help us to look at the official data and make comments after we understand it.

An American economist and an expert in China's economic analysis published an article in the Huaxia Economic Review at the end of 2001, which was entitled "The Development of China's GDP." Today, he specifically analyzed the data of China's GDP. There are two conclusions in this article, one is that after 98 years, the official growth rate of China is obviously exaggerated, this table (the electronic screen shows a table) is that we extract data from the article, saying that the economic growth in 98 was 7.8%, in 99 the official growth rate was 9.1%, in 2000 the official growth rate was 8%, and there are two to three, in 2001 it was 7.3%, he thinks it is three to four. After this announcement, it caused a very big international repercussion, and the mainstream media in the United States, the Wall Street Journal reflected this, and the British news media also published this view. At the same time, this point of view, and other related articles, go along with it. For example, when a Chinese-American wrote that China's economy was about to collapse, this article provides some evidence from a scholar's point of view, so the impact is very large.

What is the basis for that scientist, he said that energy consumption is related to GDP, in 98 years, China's economic growth was 7.8, but energy consumption was negative 1.4%, and the household consumption structure was also negative. In the four-year cumulative scenario, economic growth is 33.8%, but energy consumption is minus 0.5, employment is 0.8%, and consumer prices are minus 2%, and there are many data that do not match. He also studied the relationship between some Asian countries and regions, including China's past history, such as Japan, 57 to 61 years is a period of rapid growth, the four-year cumulative growth is 21.8%, employment is 4.6%, he believes that energy employment and price growth are matched, Baodao to 61 to 67 is four cumulative is 61.7%, employment is 17%, consumer prices are 20.6%, of course, it also matches consumption. China's four-year economic growth rate from '87 to '91 was 41.8 percent, employment was 23.2 percent, and energy consumption prices and employment were also compatible. At the same time, it is believed that there are many data in China that do not match, so China's economic growth rate is overestimated. He believes that China is a big country after all, and its influence in the world is still increasing, and for people who care about China, they want to know how China's economic growth is, how to judge China's economic growth, and what is China's economic speed?

He gave everyone a reference, he said that there is a data, we can refer to, that is, the growth of air passenger turnover, why can this data be referenced? How can it be used to judge the rate of economic growth? He said that during this period of '98, the income distribution in China was unfair, and the growth rate of high-income people was higher than the growth rate of average income, and thus higher than the growth rate of GDP. During this period of '98, airlines competed with each other, discounted, and then encouraged high-income people to fly, so high-income people want to use their income in aviation, so he uses this logic, the growth rate of air passenger turnover will be higher than the growth rate of high-income people, and thus the growth rate of the average income level, and thus higher than the growth rate of GDP.

The growth rate of air passenger turnover in '98 was only 2.2%, so he doesn't think the economic growth rate will be too high. This is his basic point. In response to his viewpoint, it has caused great repercussions in the West and in China, and it has also been discussed in academic circles. One of the more representative scholars is a professor at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, because he has worked as a consultant in the market, and he once wrote a book on the accounting of China's GDP data. His point of view is what everyone is interested in, and how he comments on Rosky's point of view, that the first growth rate is high, or more specifically the growth rate of energy is negative, and the rate of economic growth is high. For example, between 1989 and '92, Germany's economy grew by 12 percentage points for four consecutive years, while energy fell by a few percentage points. The energy growth rate in '89 was also lower than it should be, and other countries, the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan had high economic growth rates and low energy growth rates. From 83 to 2000, the relationship between the economic growth rate and the air passenger turnover rate, everyone thinks that the economic growth rate is lower than the growth of the air passenger turnover rate, and only some years are the economic growth rate higher than the growth of the air passenger turnover rate, if so, it is considered that the economy is overestimated, then how to explain it in other years? So he thinks Rosky's statement is too sloppy. For China, the economic growth is likely to be very low, especially from 98 to 2000.

An economist and another professor in China once wrote an article called the estimation of China's economic growth rate, which selected 15 variables, and he expressed some conclusions, saying that the economic growth of any country is determined by a variety of factors, and that no single economic activity can explain the complexity of the current economy, especially in a large country like China. There is no single activity that can explain an economy of this magnitude as Huaxia.

There is also an American scholar, a senior researcher at an American society, who also wrote an article called The Fact of Economic Growth in China. He also wrote this article for the fact that China's economy may be negative growth, or very low growth, this article mainly chooses two indicators, one is imports, he found that the import growth rate from 97 to 2001 is 70%, and the fiscal revenue has increased by 90%, as far as imports are concerned, he said that it may not be overestimated, why? He said that imports are counted by the customs, and the customs must pay taxes to the treasury while counting imports, and he has no reason to be higher than the import and export volume, but the import and export volume is growing rapidly, and it can be explained that Huaxia is constantly reducing the import tax rate, because of such enterprises, the rest are a lot of growth, and he believes that only the rapid growth of China's economy can be explained. He said that if it were not for the rapid growth of China's economy, how could China absorb such a large amount of imports. So he thinks the only explanation is the high growth of the economy. The second fiscal revenue, fiscal revenue is not necessarily overestimated. He explained that there are three, the first is that after the reform and opening up, Huaxia has a huge pressure of capital demand. One of the three capital demand pressures is that with the development of the economy, the Huaxia government must use a large amount of funds to govern the environment, and the country must also use the capital channel for military purposes. After the reform and opening up, many workers were laid off and unemployed, so the government had to come up with funds to support them. Under the pressure of such a high demand for funds, there is no need for the government to overestimate fiscal revenue, he believes that fiscal revenue can only be calculated based on the rapid growth of the economy, and he said that if there is no rapid economic growth, what money will enterprises use to pay taxes, and what money will residents use to pay taxes. If there are no enterprises to pay taxes and no residents to pay taxes, how can the government have so much money to do income growth.

Another scholar, as he said, just said that Radi used fiscal revenue and imports to judge the rapid growth of China's economy, but he said that some people use the negative growth of energy, the negative growth of prices, and the low growth of employment to judge that the rapid economic growth is overestimated, and this conclusion has not been opposed. When he finished his comment, he believed that China's economy is indeed a high-speed growth rate, and he said that after we solve all the problems, China's actual economic growth rate will not be close to what some people say, and when the dust settles, when we solve all the problems, we will clearly see that China's actual economic growth rate does not conform to what the official said. This is one of the most controversial comments on Huaxia Data in the world.

What do recent scholars say about the growth rate of China's economy? There is a point of view from the beginning of 93 to the first half of this year, some scholars in the academic circles believe that the official economic growth rate of China underestimates, there are many scholars that China's economic growth rate may exceed 10%, and some scholars' comments from a statistical point of view, there may also be the previous aspects, on the other hand, there are also statistical bureaus to release imperfect data. Here I would like to mention three points, the first of which is an inaccurate judgment of industrial growth. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the industrial growth rate was 17.7%, and the first to second quarters were also 17.7%, so the growth rate of 17.7%, everyone thinks that the proportion of industry in GDP is very high, is 40%, and it also pulls GDP very high. However, there is one thing that needs to be noted, the industrial data we release are industries above designated size, but countries below designated size may not release data, and the growth is very low. For example, in the first half of the year, it was 17.7% above the scale, and it was 4.00% below the scale, so when the two are combined, there is no mention of growth, which is easy to misunderstand one aspect.

The second aspect is that the judgment of household consumption is sometimes inaccurate, from the perspective of expenditure to calculate these data, scholars get the data is often fixed asset investment, but these data and GDP accounting corresponding indicators are not in line, so some international professional indicators in the month, sometimes will be inaccurate. For example, fixed assets, we are now releasing the actual investment in fixed assets and investment growth are two indicators, for example, the more obvious is the amount of investment in fixed assets, we say that it is professional statistical data, including the purchase of land, in the case of hot development zones, land purchases, the growth rate of land is much higher than the growth of other investments, when this indicator is fixed to the capital formation of GDP, take land to purchase, because land is not produced in the current year, GDP must reflect the results of the current year's production, When the part that is growing fast is removed, the capital does not grow so fast.

This point has also caused a lot of controversy among scholars. For example, in foreign countries, investment and capital formation are the same thing, but due to the traditional statistical formation of Huaxia, it is said that fixed asset investment and capital formation are two data, and the latter can only transition to the capital mix of GDP after adjusting the front, which also leads to misunderstanding. Therefore, when it comes to investment growth of more than 30%, or 28%, it is thought that the GDP growth rate may be very high, but in fact, when some of the fast-growing and non-compliant parts are removed, is it so high? So we have an aspect of the official data that needs to be clarified, and there is also the inconsistency between us and international statistics, which should be of concern to scholars. Because it is difficult to reflect this difference in the short term, it is formed in the long term.

Next, let's talk about the historical review and future outlook of China's economic growth and its status.

First of all, a historical review, let me give you a brief introduction, there is a famous economist who turned out to be a senior adviser to OECT, and later a professor at a university in the Netherlands, and he has published three books, in which he has commented on the economic growth of China and the economic growth of the world. This table (a table appears again on the electronic screen) from 1700 to 1820, is a reflection of the major countries, in 1820 China's GDP is far ahead of other countries, the United States should only be 12.6 billion, less than 6% of China's GDP. Japan is only equivalent to 9% of China's GDP, and now it is different, the GDP of the United States in 52 years was 167.7 billion yuan, an increase of 132% over 1820, and Huaxia was 305.7 billion yuan, also an increase of 40% over 1820, and was left far behind by the United States. In 1820, the GDP of the United States accounted for 1.8 of the world's GDP, Japan accounted for only 3%, India accounted for 15.7%, and in 1890, China's GDP accounted for 13.2% of the world's GDP. If we look at the growth rate, the United States, the fastest growing country from 1700 to 1820, followed by Russia and China, and Japan and India, had a slower economic growth rate, which was much lower than the world average. From the point of view of per capita level, when China was in 1700, China, the United States and Japan were roughly the same, by 1820, China's per capita GDP did not change, Japan increased by 12.5%, by 1952 the per capita GDP of the United States increased by 83 times, and China's GDP fell by 10%, which is why China became poorer and poorer. This is the growth rate per capita. From 1700 to 1820, the per capita growth rate of the United States was high, while the per capita growth rate of China was zero. China used to be in a leading position in the world, both in absolute terms and whatever, but it gradually declined later.

A World Bank publication, the GDP of the United States in 2000 was more than 90,000, and China was only more than 10,000, and China was 10.9% of the United States, that is, one-ninth, the United States accounted for 35.5% of the world's GDP, Japan was 14.9%, Germany was 6%, Britain was 4.5%, and France was 4.1%, and we wanted to ask whether it was possible for China to move forward in the world economic arrangement. Under what circumstances is it possible to move forward. Many scholars have done this research. For example, Jingjing University has done research that by the middle of the 21st century, China's economy will catch up with other countries. What would the results be from a statistical point of view, from a data point of view? To study the changes in China's economic status, how these countries ahead of us will grow in the future, and how to study how it will grow in the future, we must look at its history and how it has changed. For example, in the United States, we can get the historical data of the 70s, and the history of the 70s gives us a good inspiration, and you can take a good look at it, the average annual growth rate from 90 to 2000 was 3.24%, and from 80 to 2000 it was 3.21%, and we can see that it may be different from year to year, and sometimes even larger. But on a per capita level, it is above 3 per cent. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the United States may still grow at a rate of 3% per capita, or even a little higher, for a considerable period of time in the future. If we look at Japan, in the 60s and 70s, the rate of growth in Japan used to be more than 10%, and then it went down, and from the 70s to the 80s, it was only a growth rate of 1.23%, and in the 90s it was a negative growth rate, and now it is a little bit more angry, but the overall rate will remain between 2% and 3%, and the rest of the countries are around 2% to 3%. So according to historical research, the per capita growth rate of the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France is particularly low. With the base number and data of 2000, we can know how China will change in the future, and this depends on the historical situation of these countries and regions with a similar level of development to China. This table (another table) tells us that Singapore grew rapidly from 65 to 84 years, and Hong Kong grew at 8.68 from 68 to 88 years. Some have been in a low state for a long time, and some are in a relatively good state. For example, Japan's average growth rate is 2.81. But the rest is growing at 6% and 7%.

I think that China's rapid economic growth may not be able to violate the law of economic decline, and the current concept is obviously different from the concept of the early 80s, and it will also decline, but after the decline, it will not be in a state of low mí for a long time like Japan. For example, China has a vast market, and the technological gap between China and foreign countries at the advanced level is far greater than that of Japan, and China has many problems, such as the difference between urban and rural areas, regional differences, per capita GDP levels, consumption levels, and the proportion of the tertiary industry, all of which are far lower than those of developed countries, and some are even lower than those of developing Huaxia. Therefore, Huaxia has huge room for development, and it may be a gradual and slow process of decline in the future.

In the first 10 years it might be 7 to 8 per cent, but I am talking about 7.5 per cent growth here, and then the growth rate will drop by one percentage point in each decade after that. For example, 10 to 20 years is 15%, 20 to 30 years is 5.5%, 31 to 40 years is 4.5%, 50 years later is 3%, we will be in the lead increment, but we have one thing to pay attention to, there is a very important factor, that is, the exchange rate, often the exchange rate will change. To study how China's exchange rate will change in the future, we might as well take a look at how the exchange rates of countries and regions that have experienced rapid growth have changed. For example, if you look at the Singapore dollar, one dollar used to be exchanged for three new dollars, in 2000 it was exchanged for 1.7 new dollars, Taiwan dollars, one dollar was exchanged for 63 Taiwan dollars, and in 2003 it became more than 1,000 won. Another factor that can be taken into account is the change in the national price index. If we look at the change in the price level of a country, there is a very important indicator, that is, the GDP contraction index, if we deduct the price level, all countries and regions that have experienced high growth are at an upward level. Judging by the 60s, 90s, the national average is an increase of 119. Therefore, we have reason to assume that for a considerable period of time in the future, how China will continue to maintain high-speed growth, the upward trend of the exchange rate may be inevitable. Therefore, in addition to the assumption that the exchange rate is constant, there are two new assumptions, one is that the exchange rate can remain unchanged in the first ten years, and then it will gradually increase and rise by 100%. With such assumptions, we can conclude that the total economic output of China is like this. If the exchange rate remains unchanged, China's economic growth will surpass that of France in 2005, surpass the United Kingdom in 06, surpass Germany in 12 years, surpass Japan in 56 years, and cannot catch up with the United States in this century. Under the second assumption, assuming that the exchange rate rises by 100 percent, China's economy will still not be able to catch up with the United States in this century. I don't think these assumptions are basically non-existent, because I found that in the last few years, four or five decades, two of the countries are Japan and Switzerland, and the exchange rate has increased, so I think the second assumption is more realistic, and it may be more than 100 percent higher in this century, but not more than the United States. Some people think that I am pessimistic, but the economic strength of the United States is very high, and China cannot surpass him, and it will have to pay a high price if it exceeds it, and it is difficult to guarantee that it will not fall.

According to the per capita point of view, this forecast will reach a peak in 30 years, assuming that the data is accurate, the per capita GDP of China in the future, the exchange rate appreciation of 100 percent, the per capita level is 20,000, the exchange rate is 200 percent, that is 30,000, what is this level? If the exchange rate remains unchanged, the per capita GDP of the Chinese people in 2050 will reach 10,916 US dollars, which will not catch up with the level of Portugal in 2000, and under the assumption that the real exchange rate will rise by 100%, the per capita GDP will not catch up with the level of Italy, Australia and Canada in 2000. **There is an indicator that by the end of the century, China will catch up with the level of moderately developed countries. If we define this definition at the level of the moderately developed countries that we consider to be Italy and Canada, our GDP per capita will catch up with theirs, but only at the level of 2000. There is also a definition, whether China catches up with the developed countries, catches up with the level at that time, or catches up with the level of the next 50 years, it is difficult to say now, this is to be considered. This is based on GDP and official data, and is a completely personal opinion.

The last part, on economic growth in '04 and '05. First of all, in 04, we know that from the first to the second quarter, China's economic growth is in a gradual downward trend. For example, the first growth in the third quarter is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. From the perspective of growth drivers, it can be viewed from two perspectives, one is the supply perspective and the other is from the demand perspective. From a supply perspective, industry in particular is the main driver of economic growth. The contribution rate of the primary industry to economic growth is 64.1% of the contribution rate of the secondary industry to economic growth, 28.8% of the tertiary industry to economic growth, and 2.7 percentage points of economic growth. Industry is the main driving force of China's economic development, and in recent years, it has been the main factor. In the first three quarters, final consumption contributed 43.2% to economic growth and 4.1 percentage points to drive economic growth, and I don't think this pattern will change in the short term. From the point of view of the structure that should grow, from the point of view of production, the secondary industry is in the rising stage, and the proportion of the tertiary industry is declining, which is no different from a person's view of economic growth. We are different now, the tertiary industry is only 31%, the first to third quarter is 31, and in large developed countries it is more than 70%. Even the development of Huaxia is a tertiary industry, and the proportion is quite low. Moreover, because industry is still the main driving force, the growth rate of industry will exceed other growth rates, so the tertiary industry is still in decline. In the long run, the business services sector will rise. From the perspective of the proportion of investment, the proportion of investment is rising, and the proportion of consumption is falling. I think this is a special period, and the proportion of consumption will definitely go up in the future.

Economic growth in 2005, I have a basic judgment, I think the economic growth rate will not be too low, there are some reasons, why, the development of China is still the most important, China's per capita GDP is far lower than the world average, let alone developed countries, the United States, Japan, Singapore. Generally speaking, it is still out of sync, and besides, we have many problems that need to be solved, such as the gap between urban and rural areas, the problem of regional disparity, the problem of income distribution, the laid-off of workers in state-owned enterprises, the problem of unemployment, and many other problems that have not been developed.

I don't think the economic growth rate will be too high, too high will be a problem, why? Our current economic growth is still extensive growth, in many cases are fighting for energy, fighting for resources, but China's per capita resource occupancy is far below the average, for example, our arable land, even if it accounts for 43% of the average world level, our water resources are far below the world average, many of our mineral resources are not only per capita level, even in absolute quantity is very poor. China's economic growth is achieved by relying on a large amount of consumption resources. For example, in 03 years, China's GDP accounted for 3.8% of the world's GDP, but our steel, coal, cement consumption accounted for more than 30% of the world's total level, especially cement accounted for 53% of the world's cement volume, if you rely on such a large consumption, China's per capita resources are insufficient, relying on such consumption is difficult to maintain. Therefore, I think it is very correct for the CPC Central Committee to put forward a scientific outlook on development. Huaxia needs development, but what kind of development is needed, it needs to change the mode of production, and it needs to change the way of high consumption, high quality, and low efficiency. In this case, we can't have too high a growth rate, because it's hard to change the growth mode at once, and if you want to have a high speed, you have to consume too much, and our resources simply can't afford it. Now that China is importing oil, they are driving up the price of oil. International resources are limited, their own resources are limited, and when you demand a lot, the price will rise, so it is impossible and should not Huaxia maintain a too high growth rate and cannot afford it. So I think there should be an appropriate growth rate, so next year I think it will be at a more reasonable growth level. That's all I have to say, thank you. ”

The host said a few kind words, and then invited an economist to analyze Xiao Chen's speech just now, and the scholar thought for a little and said: "Macroeconomic regulation and control is actually the implementation of the 'five overall plans' proposed by the central government. The Central Committee and the Government Council discovered this macroeconomic regulation and control early, and the measures were also resolute. Although we can't say that if we don't regulate it in time, today's economy will collapse or what? But it is certain to say that if there is no regulation, it is impossible for the economy to develop in a healthy and sustainable way. For example, the steel industry cannot develop indefinitely, and if there is too much development, there may be a shortage of iron ore. As far as I know, the current stock of iron ore resources in China is 9 billion tons, of which the Liao'an region accounts for 50%. So what about his steel mill? It is necessary to rely on imports, relying on import freight is expensive, and at the same time the exporting country wants to raise the price, so how much it costs you need to smelt a ton of steel, this can be calculated. If the price of your steel is high, will it affect the price of other aspects, and the price rise is naturally self-evident.

First of all, it is necessary to affirm that this macroeconomic regulation and control has been very effective, and the majority of enterprises and regions feel relatively good. There are several sets of numbers to prove this: first, the forecast for full-year GDP may be 9%, or a little more than 9%; Fiscal revenue is expected to increase by 20%; According to relevant data, the increase in peasants' incomes is 11.4 percent, and the actual growth rate is 6 percent; the number of new jobs created in cities and towns may reach the second, and the investment in fixed assets in the whole society has dropped markedly; compared with the first quarter in the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets has fallen by 15 percent, the growth rate of investment in steel and cement has dropped by 65 percent and the third quarter, the retail sales of consumer goods are expected to increase by 13 percent, and the import and export trade is very likely to exceed $1.1 trillion this year, and the overall level of consumer prices has been kept under 4 percent。

These figures give an impression that China's economy has continued to maintain a momentum of relatively rapid growth and relatively good economic returns. However, this does not mean that our macroeconomic regulation and control is over, or that we can withdraw our troops and return to the DPRK in victory. The fact that macroeconomic regulation and control has achieved results does not mean that macroeconomic regulation and control has ended, and macroeconomic regulation and control will always be a major topic as far as economic operation is concerned.

I said that macro-control is a normal thing, just like we always have to live on the earth under gravity, and we have to find a balance when we walk, but talking about normalcy does not mean that it has to be put forward as a specific word for macro-control, and it has always been very tight. As our concept of the market economy is constantly renewed, and in particular, our ability to control the socialist market economy is constantly improving, macroeconomic regulation and control should always flash in our economic life. It's as if we're familiar with our path, and we have to find a way to go straighter, even though it may be inevitable to swing from side to side, and it won't go up and down. ”

Another scholar suddenly asked Xiao Chen: "Some people say that 2004 is the year of 'electricity shortage', but behind the electricity shortage, what we see is 'coal shortage'." According to the forecast of the Coal Industry Association, there will still be a shortage of 80 million tons of coal in China in 2005, and the situation of tight supply will continue to exist. What does Director Xiao think is the problem behind the coal shortage? ”

Xiao Chen frowned slightly, in fact, this issue is not the category he is in charge of, there is a special deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission who is also the director of the National Energy Administration, and he is in charge of this matter, but he didn't come today.

So Xiao Chen had no choice but to go on the hard top: "From the perspective of the coal industry itself, its investment has been relatively small in recent years, its production growth capacity has been relatively slow, and the newly added mineable reserves are relatively small. Moreover, the production conditions of many coal mines are relatively poor, so since the beginning of this year, as soon as the supply of coal is tight, it has caused coal production to be relatively passive, and it is not easy to adapt to the sudden increase in demand, and it is not easy for you to let it increase the output of more coal. Because its foundation has been relatively weak, but this aspect can be said to be not very important, the main reason is that the high growth of the national economy has brought about a substantial increase in the demand for coal, so the main reason for the coal shortage is in addition to coal, especially the power shortage. Electricity eats up 50%-60% of coal production.

Electricity has increased by more than 10% this year, and it will inevitably drive a lot of demand for coal, but when this demand grows, it will increase the price of coal. Because the market demand has increased, according to the law of the market, according to the law of value, this price should reflect such a change, but from the perspective of power companies, they are not very willing to bear the rise in coal prices, because the price of coal in our country has been liberalized, is regulated by the market. And this electricity price has not been liberalized, it is controlled by the government.

In this way, from last year to this year, the contradiction between coal and power prices has been very prominent, and this contradiction has been mediated by the central government, although it has been alleviated, but it has not fundamentally solved the problem.

Fundamentally speaking, the contradiction between coal supply and demand depends on the cooling of the national economy from local overheating, which is the most fundamental. From a technical point of view, this contradiction between coal and power is a very important joint point here. Experts on the contradiction of coal power have different suggestions, and some of them are now more about the linkage of coal power prices. As for what kind of ratio, there is a very complex price system, which is being discussed more, or the price of coal power that has entered the policy horizon has been mentioned more. I believe that fundamentally it depends on the reform of the electricity market, after the completion of this reform, the electricity price can basically reflect the law of supply and demand, so that whether the price of coal rises or falls, the price of electricity can also be reflected accordingly. This is in the long run, fundamentally speaking, should rely on such a mechanism, in the short term is to rely on macroeconomic control, macroeconomic control can curb the signs of economic overheating, reduce demand, pour some water on the overheated economy, cool down, macro economy has reached a healthy and sustainable state, the coal industry can also restore the balance of supply and demand. ”