It was as if everything was playing out according to a standard script: it was a classic prelude to a currency crisis, a situation that economists like to study with models and speculators who like to provoke. Over time, it became clear that the Thai government did not have the courage to adopt austerity policies at home, and people became more and more convinced. Thailand will eventually allow the Thai girl to depreciate. But. Since the devaluation has not yet been born, this waiting time is worth making good use. As long as the Thai girl's exchange rate against the US dollar looks like it will remain stable. Since interest rates in Thailand are a few percentage points higher than in the United States. There is an incentive for people to borrow dollar-denominated debt and lend out Thai sister-denominated loans. But once people think that the Thai government has a good chance of devaluing the Thai girl soon, their motivation will be reversed: they will borrow the debt denominated in the Thai girl. and expect that the dollar value of these debts will soon shrink; They will buy assets in dollars. It is expected that the Thai value of these assets will increase soon. As a result, Thai entrepreneurs have borrowed Thai sock-denominated debt to repay their dollar loans; Wealthy Thais are selling their Thai government bonds and buying short-term U.S. Treasury bills; Equally important, some large international hedge funds have started borrowing from Taimei and converting investment earnings into US dollars.

They are actually selling Thai girls and buying other currencies, which means that in order to avoid the depreciation of Thai Bahn, the Bank of Thailand must buy Thai Thai girls more vigorously, which will make Thailand's foreign exchange reserves deplete faster. Those who see this are even more convinced that the Thai government will allow the Thai girl to devalue more quickly. So a typical currency crisis unfolded.

Any financial expert will tell you that once things get to this point, the government will have to act decisively, either make it clear that it will do whatever it takes to preserve the value of its currency, or let it depreciate. But governments are often torn between two sides. Like many previous governments, there will undoubtedly be those that will wait and see what happens when their foreign exchange reserves continue to dwindle. Moreover, the Thai government wants the market to think that it is not in such a bad position. Also through the covert "reciprocal foreign exchange credit." In fact, it is to urgently borrow dollars for later repayment to make foreign exchange reserves appear larger. But that doesn't ease the pressure on it, and while things seem to be getting better at times, they always come back to the way they were. By the time July arrived, it was clearly untenable. On July 2, the Thai government allowed the Thai Baht to depreciate.

There is nothing strange about what happened before that. Thailand's dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and the impact of speculators on the apparently disadvantaged Thai girls, are exactly the same as those described in future economics textbooks. Although there were a few years ago the "tequila crisis." , but most people still think that as soon as Taimei depreciates, this matter is basically over. The Thai government will be humiliated, and some overextended companies may be hit hard, but there will be no catastrophe. Thailand is clearly very different from Mexico. No one can question Thailand's "stability comes." Reform goes, where growth goes" There is absolutely no one like Cárdenas waiting to come to power and pursue a populist program in Thailand. So Thailand will not suffer a devastating recession.

They were wrong, and this time they were waiting to be stabbed against them by the American consortiums that were clearly in Soris, and in secret in some other wealth funds and even investment banks.

George Soros is a Hungarian-born immigrant American entrepreneur who founded the Quantum Fund in Yo and was already a billionaire at a prime time with a reputation as "the world's greatest investor" and praise for his generosity and creative philanthropy. But Mr. Soros is both brilliant and ambitious to get rich, and wants his philosophical insights to be valued as much as his business wit. People like Soros will not be complacent and stop because of these achievements. As he himself puts it, he's always wanted to do an extraordinary business surprise: not only to make money, but to make a name for himself in it, which he can then use to advance his business outside of business.

It was in the summer of his summer that he found such an opportunity in England. The United Kingdom has joined the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System (EMS) in the following year. The countries that join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism maintain fixed exchange rates in preparation for the eventual European single currency.

In the story of the "ball coin", the continents are dissatisfied with the global monetary policy. After joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, the United Kingdom now does not like the fixed exchange rate policy stipulated by the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. In the Zhao year, the European Central Bank had not yet been established; Although the European Exchange Rate Mechanism nominally provides for a balance of rights and responsibilities between countries. In practice, however, countries follow the monetary policy of the Bundesbank. But it is no exaggeration to say that Germany was a special European country at the time: it had only just reunited and was forced to invest large sums of money in the reconstruction of East Germany. The Bundesbank, fearing that the expenditure would induce inflation, has kept interest rates high. In case the German economy overheats. But when the UK joined the European exchange rate mechanism in the next year, the British sales exchange rate may have been set too high! So Britain fell into a deep recession in the middle of the year. Public dissatisfaction with the government is also growing in the UK. While British officials have gone to great lengths to say that Britain is not considering withdrawing from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, there is much debate about whether the British government will really stick to it.

This was the prelude to the outbreak of the currency crisis. Soros therefore decided not only to bet on the crisis. And take the initiative to provoke this crisis.

The details of this gamble are extremely complex, but the basic framework is simple. In the beginning, Soros took low-key and even covert actions. The "quantum fund" quietly accumulates lines of credit, which will eventually allow it to borrow the equivalent of about 100 million dollars in pounds sterling, and can exchange that money for dollars at will. Next, once the "Quantum Fund." Holding a large number of long positions in the dollar and short positions in the British Pong, it can launch a loud attack: Soros will do everything he can to make a big deal, and he is ready to "short" the British Pong. and in an interview with the financial press, he announced that he believed that Britain would soon allow Britain to depreciate, and so on. If all goes well, this will spur other investors to sell the British pong, and after the selling frenzy blows, the British government will have to give in and allow the British pong to depreciate.

The ploy worked. Soros's attack took a turn to "high profile" in August. Stage. Within weeks, Britain had spent nearly $100 million defending the pound, but in vain. Mouth in the middle of the month. In order to preserve the value of the British currency, the British government raised interest rates, but it turned out that the British were in power

There is no such thing as a pan-the-old practice. So just three days later. Britain withdrew from the European Union. The pound began to float freely until now. A mortar of sweat. In the blink of an eye, Soros made about $1 in capital gains and is regarded as one of the most famous speculators of all time.

But what exactly did Soros do? There are three questions here.

First, has Soros destroyed the value of a currency that would not have depreciated? Maybe he didn't. By the time Soros acted, the pressure to depreciate Britain was mounting, and many economists were already skeptical. The UK will not remain in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism for long, but there are not many market participants who think so. Although Schucke's assertion is unprovable, he firmly believes that with or without Soros, Britain's move to join the European Monetary Club is doomed to fail from the start.

Second, even if this is the case, Soros has at least added an exhibition of events to depreciate the value of Yingpong in advance, right? That's true, but the question is, how much has he sped up the process? The Xiao family still has a speculation that is impossible to prove: even if there is no Soros action or other factors. The economic situation forced Britain to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in the short term, and Soros has only accelerated the pace of this action for a few weeks.

Third, has Soros caused damage to those affected by his actions? Soros's actions have brought the British government led by John Major to shame for a long time. But in fact, it can be argued that Soros has done a good thing for the whole of Britain. The depreciation of the British pound did not cause an economic crisis: the pound depreciated about the old time and then stabilized. The British government was also relieved of the task of maintaining the value of the currency, which allowed it to let go of lowering interest ratesChancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont publicly said that he was greatly relieved by the abolition of the fixed exchange rate in Britain and was so happy that he was "singing in the bathtub." And a few days ago he declared that the exchange rate was sacrosanct. His relief came too soon, and most Britons did benefit from the depreciation of the pound later. But Lamont after expressing "relief". Soon forced to resign.

Driven by low interest rates and a more competitive exchange rate, the UK economy quickly recovered strongly, and within a few years unemployment was greatly reduced, leaving its neighbours in the dust. For the British, Soros's attack on British sales has more benefits than harm.

It seems that this story is not scary at all! But the Europeans, who had devoted themselves to the cause of the monetary union, did see the events of the last year as a tragedy. France was attacked by speculation in the year of the year, but basically repelled the speculators and allowed the franc to float for a short time, and soon pulled it back into the European exchange rate mechanism. The French complained about currency speculators, following the cliché of denouncing them as tools of evil. But in the mainstream policy discussions in the Anglo-Saxon world, no one sees the story of Soros's assault on Britain as a worrying harbinger.

And that all changed with the advent of the Asian crisis. It is now being realized that the results of speculation may be far less than good.

In the minds of ardent free-market advocates, Hong Kong has always held a special place. At a time when most "third world" countries believed that protectionism and government programs were the right way to go, Hong Kong implemented free trade. Pursuing a policy of letting entrepreneurs unfold, and showing the world that such a fully open economy could achieve growth rates that no exhibition theorist would have dared to imagine. Hong Kong was also the first to revive the currency board system. And in the imagination of some conservatives. The resurrection of the Currency Board was the first step towards the re-establishment of the gold standard. Year after year, the Heritage Foundation, a conservative organization, ranks Hong Kong as one of the economies with the highest "Index of Economic Freedom."

However, Hong Kong has been hit by the Asian financial crisis. There is little fault in the management of Hong Kong's own economy: its economy is run by the rule of law, its banks are well supervised, and its budget policies are conservative, all of which Hong Kong is second to none in Asia. Before the crisis, there were almost no signs of nepotism in Hong Kong. And in the first year after the crisis erupted. Hong Kong is also free from panic capital flight. But it is clear that the city was in a bad situation at the time and had bad luck. With the downturn in neighboring regions, Hong Kong's economy has also suffered: Japanese people no longer come to Hong Kong for short shopping trips. Southeast Asian companies are no longer banking in Hong Kong. More unfortunate. Hong Kong has a strict linked exchange rate system, so although most of the other Asian currencies have depreciated at that time, Hong Kong still firmly maintains 7 or 8 Hong Kong dollars to the US dollar. So all of a sudden, prices in Hong Kong were as far away as Bangkok and even Tokyo. The result of all this: Hong Kong has experienced one of the worst recessions in living memory.

Inevitably, chirping suspicions began to surface. Will Hong Kong really maintain the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate at all costs? Some Hong Kong businessmen have publicly urged the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to devalue the Hong Kong dollar in order to reduce their production costs. Restore their competitiveness. These pleas were ignored, and the Hong Kong government declared the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate sacrosanct. However, the British government also said so, and then it was not depreciated? In addition, what will the motherland of China in the north and Hong Kong do? This is mainly due to currency controls. The Asian giant largely dodged the first wave of the crisis. But Xiao Ke knew. By the summer of his nephew's reign, there were already some signs of economic decline in China, and along with some rumours that China might also devalue its currency, making Hong Kong's situation much more tense.

This may seem like bad news, but some time rush funds see it as a godsend.

July 2 of that year, it was only the first day of this trend, and people would not know until a year later. In August and the month of the nephew's year, what will happen in Hong Kong. In this world. Only Xiao Zhen knew what would happen at that time. At that time, there will be a small group of hedge funds that will launch a "double kill" operation against Hong Kong. Although until later. Hong Kong officials also did not name any of the institutions, but according to rumors, the hedge funds include Soros's "Quantum Fund." and the "Tiger Fund," owned by Julian Robertson. The latter is slightly less well-known, but its influence is no less than that of the former. These hedge funds "short-sell" Hong Kong stocks, that is. They borrow shares from shareholders and sell them for Hong Kong dollars, of course, promising shareholders that they will buy the shares back and return them to them when they are due, and pay the "rent" for the use of the shares in the meantime...... Then they used these Hong Kong dollars to make their children. They're actually gambling. Bet that Hong Kong will allow the Hong Kong dollar to depreciate. Or the Kasumi Authority will raise interest rates to maintain the value of the currency, and these two things will have to come together. If the Hong Kong dollar depreciates, since they have exchanged the Hong Kong dollar for the US dollar. So they will make a profit. If Hong Kong raises interest rates. That would send the Hong Kong stock market down, and since they have already "shorted" Hong Kong stocks, they will also benefit from the price reduction of Hong Kong stocks.

But in fact, these hedge funds are not just betting on these two things, but they are doing everything in their power to facilitate them, just as Soros contributed to the depreciation of the United Kingdom. Every once in a while, these hedge funds are aggressively selling large sums of Hong Kong dollars to get everyone in the market to notice their actions. Moreover, these hedge funds have bought up reporters and editors to suggest that the Hong Kong dollar or the renminbi are on the verge of depreciation, or both. But on this point, Hong Kong officials did not name anyone. What Hong Kong officials mean is that the hedge funds are deliberately instigating a Hong Kong dollar sell-off.

Are these hedge funds really conspiring together? Of course, it's possible. One reason is a loophole in the law: if someone enters into an explicit agreement to manipulate the stock price of an American company, such as Microsoft, they will go to jail, but if someone makes a similar conspiracy against the Hong Kong stock market in the next year and almost a decade from now, it will obviously not be prosecuted. It is also possible that these hedge funds are acting separately and unconnected. But the biggest possibility is that there is no clear collusion among the hedge funds, just some eyebrows, such as a few gossip on the golf course and a few broken words at a high-end cocktail party. After all, there aren't many players in this game, and they all know how to play it, so if there's the slightest hint, everyone will know it.

However, some observers suspect that in addition to the actions against Hong Kong, hedge funds had a larger conspiracy at the time. Maybe go home to the "Hong Kong Four Tigers" or "Five Tigers" made up of hedge funds. "The number doesn't matter, it's still planning to attack other currencies. At that time, various hedge funds were also shorting the yen, because Japanese interest rates were lower at this time, and they felt that if the Hong Kong dollar depreciated. It is likely that the yen will also depreciate, and they have taken a similar approach with currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. In addition to selling the Hong Kong dollar, they are also selling these currencies with great fanfare.

So it might be fair to say that there was a conspiracy against much of the Asia-Pacific region, perhaps even the largest market conspiracy of all time, of which Hong Kong was nothing more than the object of the most attention.

And the conspiracy looks likely to succeed. After all, Hong Kong seems to have no countermeasures in the face of shocks. Hong Kong's stock market is large compared to the stock markets of most developing countries, but it is not large compared to the financial resources of hedge funds. According to Xiao Zhen's later understanding, these hedge funds held a total of about $100 million in short selling positions at that time, which is equivalent to short selling about $1 trillion in the U.S. stock market. In addition, Hong Kong's market is highly open and looks set to remain open, given the city's reputation for economic freedom and lack of arbitrary government interference, on which it depends for its survival. Controlling capital flight is unthinkable for a city like Hong Kong. In a word. The hedge fund's plan seems to be clever and has an extremely high success rate.

In the midst of this financial war in this life. Xiao Zhen greeted his aunt early, you can do it anywhere in Asia, but Soros must not participate in the war when they snipe at Hong Kong dollars.

After listening to Xiao Ding's words, Xiaoqu felt a little funny and asked, "You have analyzed it for so long, and finally come to this conclusion?" Do you think Soros will triumph across Southeast Asia and sink in Hong Kong? But according to the current analysis, I don't see any possibility that Hong Kong can win, don't you think that at this time, I am very unkind to Hong Kong's wealth, so I am persuaded to raise my hand on Hong Kong? Of course, if that's what you mean, I'll stop it. There are so many countries in Southeast Asia that can be looted, and I am not short of Hong Kong's income. She looked at Xiao Ding with a smile: "Could it be that the central government is worried that Hong Kong will fall into a financial swamp as soon as it returns to the motherland, which will make people doubt about one country, two systems?" ”

Xiao Ding smiled faintly: "Soros is very powerful. But relative to the whole of Huaxia, his strength is still not enough, very insufficient. I believe in the central government's determination to protect Hong Kong, and I also believe in Vice Premier Hong's iron-blooded methods.

When Qin Qin heard this, he was suddenly awe-struck. Hedge funds are undoubtedly powerful, but surprisingly, Hong Kong is not one of the wretched creatures of Southeast Asia who is not sitting still.

In the second half of that year, the hedge fund under the famous American financier Soros launched a series of sniping attacks in Asian countries and regions, and achieved great success, causing Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries and regions to accumulate foreign exchange accumulated for decades in an instant, thus triggering the Asian financial crisis that had the greatest impact on the political, economic and social life of these countries after World War II. In July of his nephew's reign, Soros began to target the Hong Kong dollar and began to attack the Hong Kong stock market and futures in a planned manner.

The Hong Kong dollar implements a linked exchange rate system, which has an automatic adjustment mechanism and is not easy to break. However, Hong Kong dollar interest rates are prone to sharp rises, and a sharp rise in interest rates will affect the stock market to fall sharply. In this way, as long as you sell short in the stock market and the next market in advance, and then borrow a large amount of Hong Kong dollars from banks, the interest rate of Hong Kong dollars will rise sharply, causing the Hang Seng Index to plummet, and you will be able to make speculative profits just like in other markets.

Hedge funds are often constrained by the traditional practice of Hong Kong's financial regulators to raise short-term lending rates when they impact Hong Kong's financial markets. Facts have proved that in the first three shocks of the old Mao year and the old month "nephew year" in June, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's measure was to raise the short-term loan interest rate, and the chairman of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Yam Chi-choi, was also jokingly called "any move".

Rising interest rates raise the cost of speculation. At the time of this speculator's impact on Hong Kong's financial market. The biggest difference from the past is that speculators do not engage in spot lending activities, but instead accumulate a large amount of Hong Kong dollars in advance. These Hong Kong dollars come from many sources, but a very important source is the one- to two-year Hong Kong dollar bonds issued by some international financial institutions in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, with a total amount of about US$100 million and an annual interest rate of . These international financial institutions swapped these Hong Kong dollars into US dollars, and the original purpose of these international financial institutions was to use this hedging base to become a low-cost bargaining chip in Hong Kong's financial market, so that speculators could have favorable conditions for arbitrage in the foreign exchange market. Hedge funds, in turn, buy a large number of forward US dollars in the foreign exchange market to balance the risk. It is said that Soros's fund holds buy contracts with a total amount of about 100 million US dollars, with an expiration date of February of the same year.

Since the beginning of the year, international speculators have made four moves in the Hong Kong stocks, foreign exchange and futures markets, and the first three times have made huge profits. From the end of July to the beginning of August, international speculators once again sniped at the Hong Kong dollar through hedge funds in an effort to push up the interbank rate and interest rate. Obviously, they are only superficially attacking the Hong Kong dollar, and the real targets are the stocks. Attacking the West has been a consistent means of speculation by Soros and other international speculators, and has been successful many times.

In June and July of the year of his nephew, when the Hang Seng Index climbed to a concave high, hedge funds sold the Hang Seng Index aggressively, establishing a large number of short positions in the Hang Seng Index. The reason why hedge funds have established short positions in the Hang Seng Index. This is because they expect the Hang Seng Index to fall sharply after the shock to Hong Kong stocks. The price of the HSI futures contract is in Hong Kong dollars per pip. In other words, if a short position is opened, every point drop in the Hang Seng Index can bring a profit to the short seller.

What year in July! On Sunday, Hong Kong returned to the motherland. This was a major event in the history of the Chinese nation and ushered in a new era for Hong Kong. However, for international speculators, this is an opportunity for them to make waves. What is the future of Hong Kong? A series of issues, such as what will happen to Hong Kong's economy and society, have not only made outsiders suspicious. Hong Kong people also have no spectrum in their hearts. The Hang Seng Index represents the economic and political outlook of Hong Kong's financial market, as well as the entire Hong Kong economy, and is the "barometer" of Hong Kong's economy. As long as it can shake the Hang Seng Index. It can undermine confidence in Hong Kong's economy. In this case, the Hang Seng Index fell sharply. It is likely to cause blind panic among the majority of investors. So as to achieve the purpose of reaping the benefits of fishermen.

International speculators shorted stocks and futures indices in the securities market, significantly crushing the Hang Seng Index. The Hang Seng Index fell sharply from 10,000 points to the concave knife point, and pointed directly to the mortar point. When the mountain rain is about to come, the securities market is full of bad news. Early August of this year. Speculators trumpeted that the renminbi would depreciate, and among them, the black market trading of the renminbi in Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places had fallen, and the dollar was exchanged for the renminbi or so. Speculators spread rumors that the renminbi will depreciate in order to influence people's trust in the Hong Kong dollar.

One overseas fund even offered an option for the decoupling of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate in August of the same year. Speculators seized the opportunity to spread rumors, threatening that "the Hong Kong dollar is about to decouple from the US dollar and depreciate." "But the finger will fall to 4 concave points" Yunyun. Its purpose is nothing more than to disturb people's hearts and create a state of chaos. Then take the opportunity to fish in troubled waters. In August, the Hang Seng Index once fell to persuade the point, falling through. dot

Mouth.

Long old days. The Hong Kong government is officially involved in stock market and futures trading. In order to preserve the Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong government brought a huge amount of exchange funds into the stock market and futures markets to directly confront speculators. The Hong Kong government instructed a number of brokerage firms in Hong Kong, such as Bank of China, Victory, and Hesheng. Dadao absorbs the blue chips of the Hang Seng Index, saying that it will not hesitate to do so. Aim to raise the August futures point. The Hong Kong government's previous policy of "active non-intervention" has dealt an unexpected blow to speculators.

The Monetary Authority, which acts as the central bank. Direct market access to intervene in the futures and stock markets, which is second in the world's open capital market. The Hong Kong government surprised the market by announcing that it had used the Exchange Fund to intervene in the stock market and futures market.

Then, the speculators agitated like a proper tongue. A public opinion battle against the Hong Kong government was launched within the scope of the Golden Ball. At the same time, the speculators were not willing to bow down to their subordinates, and they once again played the ghost trick of "attacking the east and attacking the west": in August, Russia really announced that it would abandon the action of defending the ruble, causing the stocks of Japan, the United States and Europe to plummet in August, in the hope of "encircling Wei to save Zhao" and hitting the Hang Seng Index. However, to their great disappointment, it was. The Hang Seng Index was not in danger on the old days, and only fell slightly at the close of the market.

The fact that the first battle is in the way does not mean that the opponent will abandon the city and surrender, because the departure date means that there is still some time before the contract is settled, and the Hong Kong government understands that the fierce war is still to come. Really. From August 10,000 to Flying Japan, the two sides launched a transfer war, and the Hong Kong government aimed to force international speculators to pay a high price for speculation.

On the day of the knife and the day of the flight, speculators poured out in the stock spot market in an attempt to knock down the index. While the Hong Kong government was stubbornly defending the stock market, after several days of thrilling battles, the price of the August contract was pushed up to a point in the futures market, and the settlement price was 7 points, which was higher than before entering the market. In August, the Hong Kong government accepted all the sell orders according to the order, and the result was that the transaction amount reached 100 million Hong Kong dollars, and the transaction amount of Feiri reached 100 million Hong Kong dollars. Achieved the highest trading record in the Hong Kong market.

However, speculators are not willing to give up, they believe that the Hong Kong government has invested a huge amount of money in the United States, and the financial pressure and public opinion pressure make it impossible for them to support it for a long time, so they decided to transfer the short-sold stock index futures contract from August to month, hoping to fight a protracted war with the Hong Kong government.

Starting from August 10,000. Speculators sold a large number of short-selling monthly contracts at the same time as the August contract was unwinded. At the same time, the Hong Kong government took advantage of the profit from the liquidation of the August contract, making the price of the monthly contract higher than the settlement price of the August contract.

In this way, speculators have to pay more than 30,000 Hong Kong dollars for each contract rolled. Investment speculators completely lost the battle for the August contract.

August is the settlement date of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index Futures August contract, and it is also the last trading day for the Hong Kong government to crack down on the manipulation of Hong Kong's financial market by hedge funds.

After the fierce fighting of the two sides in the first few trading days, the two sides ushered in a decisive battle.

Just a few minutes after the market opened at the old point in the morning, the stock market turnover exceeded 100 million Hong Kong dollars. Half an hour later, the transaction amount exceeded HK$400 million. By the end of the morning, the turnover had reached a huge amount of HK$100 million, close to the record high of HK$100 million set by Yuri in August of this year.

After the market opened in the afternoon, the sell-off decreased, and the trading volume was forbidden to rise. However, the Hang Seng Index and the Futures Index have always remained in Gravure 7 The bell rang at 4 o'clock in the afternoon, and the Hang Seng Index, the Futures Index, and the transaction amount that kept beating on the display screen were finally locked on the Feiyu Point, Gu Point, and Yanyi respectively.

The August day of the nephew is a heart-wrenching day for many international speculators. This is the most important victory achieved by the Hong Kong government since the intervention of the old market in August 8, and it is also a major victory achieved by the Hong Kong government against the subjective speculative strategy of the foreign exchange market, stock market, and futures market used by speculators. The Hong Kong government pushed the Hang Seng Index up from the wounded point of the old closing in August to the concave point of the flying sun. and forced speculators to settle and deliver August stock index futures at high prices. Before that. Speculators have placed a large number of short positions on the August futures index. So. Even if they roll their positions, they are costly, and once they are closed, huge losses are inevitable.

In the battle of "8 days", the Hong Kong government won a decisive victory. However, for international speculators, the transfer of futures is a feasible choice, and it is more likely to become their "life-saving straw", so for the Hong Kong SAR government, the battle of "8 flights" can only be regarded as a phased victory.

The Hong Kong government decided to continue to push up stock index futures prices in the coming month. Forcing speculative capital to exit the market at a loss.

On July 7, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority promulgated new rules on foreign exchange and securities trading and settlement, which greatly restricted speculation by speculators. On the same day, the Hang Seng Index soared to 6 points. Coupled with a series of factors such as the appreciation of the yen and the stabilization of the Southeast Asian financial market, the funds of speculators and the cost of exchange have risen sharply, and they have to retreat from the market: on the 8th of the month, the price of the monthly contract rose to the point of mouth. At the end of August, the futures index contracts that were rolled over had to be closed and exited, and each contract lost HK$40,000. At this point, international speculators saw that the general trend had gone, and they threw away their armor and fled.

Since the introduction of the currency, the Hong Kong government has spent more than $400 million. Consumed the Exchange Fund about, gills. In the "Sterling Defense War" this year, the scale of the British government's use of $100 million to confront international speculators can be called a "war" without gunpowder

The evaluation of Hong Kong's financial defense mainly focuses on two aspects: one is the evaluation of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system itself; The second is an evaluation of the government's large-scale market entry into the market, which has always pursued a liberal policy of "active non-intervention".

Due to the uniqueness of the economic system, in order to stabilize Hong Kong's economy and financial market, Hong Kong implements a linked exchange rate system, that is, a system in which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar at the ratio of one Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar. This exchange rate system has been controversial in the industry. Opponents argue that since there is no guarantee of full synchronization between Hong Kong and the US economy, there is always room for speculation in the fixed ratio of the US dollar to the Hong Kong dollar, and the demise of this system is inevitable under the long-term attacks of speculators. Those in favour argue that Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system was established in the year of the Term. At that time, due to the blockage of negotiations on the Hong Kong issue between China and England, the market saw a large number of Hong Kong dollars sold and US dollars were purchased, and the Hong Kong government established the Hong Kong government to protect the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar and maintain the confidence of Hong Kong people in the future of Hong Kong. History has also proved that under the linked exchange rate system, Hong Kong's economy has made great progress. More importantly, Hong Kong has the conditions to implement a linked exchange rate system: Hong Kong has always pursued a prudent fiscal policy; Hong Kong has huge foreign exchange reserves; Hong Kong's economic system is flexible and able to cope with moderate economic fluctuations; Hong Kong's financial system is stable. regulatory prudence and Hong Kong's strong economic backing from the Mainland, and so on. Another view is that the Linked Exchange Rate System itself is good, but the Monetary Authority has misused it, because the Linked Exchange Rate System is a cash banking system, but the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's approach is to maintain the level of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar in the foreign exchange market, and only allow the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to fluctuate unilaterally above this lower limit, that is, only allow the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to fluctuate unilaterally. Leave all exchange rate risk at the HKMA's own expense.

As for the Hong Kong government's intervention in the market, opponents believe. Government intervention may keep long-term investors away from Hong Kong and discourage long-term investors from Hong Kong. The Hong Kong government's move would tarnish the image of a free economy and undermine its status as a financial center.

And proponents argue. The Hong Kong government has always believed in a free economy, and a free economy is the cornerstone of Hong Kong. But a manipulative economy is not a free economy, and the Hong Kong government's entry into the market aims to break this manipulation, and the intervention in the market is completely correct. The Hong Kong government intervened in the market. The positive outweighs the negatives.

In this contest, it has always been the Hong Kong SAR authorities who have officially come forward to fight against international financial speculators, and China is as calm as water, and only Vice Premier Hong calmly said when asked by a reporter at a press briefing: "Behind Hong Kong is the whole of China." ”

As for the fact that the central government of China has not officially stepped in to help Hong Kong stabilize its economy from beginning to end, many people know why. The central government is not unhelpful. Moreover, it is necessary to build up confidence in Hong Kong: you can do whatever you want, and the phrase "unchanged for a hundred years" is not said in vain. As for how much the central government secretly helped the SAR government in the end, only the top leaders of the two sides know.

And Xiao Zhen didn't let Qin Qin get out of Hong Kong, naturally part of it was out of national feelings, but in fact, Soros did not get a good deal in Hong Kong. In the end, both sides were defeated, and even if Qin Qin intervened, the result would be the same. The only difference is that the defeat of both sides will be more serious.

Moreover, Xiao Zhen thinks that his aunt has earned a large sum of money in Southeast Asia, and the whole operation, billions of dollars in cash, how can it be comparable to the market value of the group's holdings rising by billions or even tens of billions?

In the hands of financiers, money is not just money, but a weapon. And real money in cash. It is an indestructible weapon, which is different from market capitalization. An Asian financial turmoil swept away decades of economic exhibition in Southeast Asian countries, but let international speculators make a lot of profits, Soros as the most famous vanguard in the "post-war" but privately expressed high praise for Xinlan Fund, Soros said: "Entering at the most appropriate time, leaving at the most appropriate time, the performance of Xinlan Fund can be called flawless." ”

At this point, Xinlan Group, as the holder of Xinlan Fund, surfaced, with a market value. It does not refer to the figure of a financial giant with assets of up to hundreds of billions of dollars, appearing in front of people all over the world.

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