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Chapter 418: Difficult to decide

Han Qin led Zhang Qingchuan into the small conference room and introduced him to the provincial party committee and the secretary-general. Li Zhihua www.biquge.info pen %fun %pavilion held Zhang Qingchuan's hand tightly, and said sincerely: "Teacher Zhang, hard work!" ”

The provincial party committee is so approachable, Zhang Qingchuan had a little mixed feelings for a while, and nodded crampedly: "Thank you Li ***, it should be, it should be." Wei Xianxian's eyes widened in surprise when he saw Han Qin bring Zhang Qingchuan into the conference room. The rumors of the Gyeongju earthquake that the first secretary of the provincial party committee just reported to him seem to have a great origin. The provincial party committee directly met with a non-governmental earthquake observation enthusiast, so that the secretary-general could not figure out what medicine was sold in Li Zhihua's gourd.

Li Zhihua glanced at the two officials of the Earthquake Bureau and introduced: "This old gentleman is a retired teacher in Gyeongju and an amateur earthquake observer. Based on his decades of practical experience, Mr. Zhang found that the monitoring data of Gyeongju was extremely abnormal recently, and Mr. Zhang boldly predicted that a strong earthquake would occur in Gyeongju within a week. ”

A strong earthquake in a week?! The two officials of the Earthquake Bureau immediately looked at each other, and couldn't help but look at Zhang Qingchuan in surprise, an old man with gray hair, who was not good-looking. After a brief moment of surprise, the two Earthquake Bureau officials turned into disdain and mockery. Sensationalism, alarmism! An amateur, if he can accurately predict a major earthquake, they, the experts who eat the imperial grain, should really jump into the river!

Seeing the sharp change in the expressions of the two officials of the Earthquake Bureau, Li Zhihua smiled slightly, pointed at the two officials with his hand, and said to Zhang Qingchuan: "Teacher Zhang, these two are authoritative experts of the Provincial Earthquake Bureau, and according to the data analysis of the seismic network monitoring, the probability of a major earthquake in Gyeongju in the near future is very small!" However, Mr. Zhang concluded that a major earthquake would occur in Gyeongju within a week, and these two views can be said to be two heavens of ice and fire.

It is impossible to have two extremes in the same place at the same time! It just so happens that everyone is here, so let's talk about your own analysis methods. There is no distinction between high and low academic opinions, and learning from each other's strengths will be beneficial to your future research work. If everyone can reach a consensus through exchanges, it can also provide a basis for decision-making for the provincial party committee. ”

Hearing what the provincial party committee said, Qin Shouhua, chief engineer of the Earthquake Bureau and director of the Analysis and Forecasting Office, suddenly blushed! The provincial party committee let him be a professor-level senior engineer, a dignified deputy department-level cadre and a non-governmental amateur to compete on the same stage, it is simply a slap in the face! Qin Shouhua gritted his teeth hatefully, he must give this old man a little color, and criticize him so that he can't step down, which is equivalent to giving the provincial party committee a slap in the face, letting him know that science is not allowed to be blasphemed!

Han Qin had already given Zhang Qingchuan a vaccination, Zhang Qingchuan saw that the provincial party committee asked him to communicate directly with the two earthquake experts, and then turned his head to look at Han Qin, Han Qin nodded at Zhang Qingchuan, encouraging him not to be superstitious about any experts! Zhang Qingchuan perked up, sat opposite the two experts from the Earthquake Bureau, and explained in detail the basis of his analysis and judgment.

When Zhang Qingchuan first entered the conference room, he was still very restrained, and when it came to seismic observation methods and data, he immediately judged that he was like two people, his thinking was quick, and his mouth was like a river.

When Zhang Qingchuan explained the basis of his analysis, Qin Shouhua took Zhang Qingchuan's written materials and examined them carefully. From the data provided by Zhang Qingchuan, Qin Shouhua clearly saw that the observation equipment of this amateur was very rudimentary, and instruments such as the earth-electric instrument had basically been eliminated by the Earthquake Bureau. Zhang Qingchuan worked the precursors of the battle, collected a large number of meteorological, hydrological, and animal anomalies, and made detailed comparisons with various omen before the Tangshan earthquake.

As a senior engineer, Qin Shouhua has to admire Zhang Qingchuan's work is very solid, these data need to be recorded in the field, and it is commendable for an amateur to be running around in the harsh winter. However, it would be imprudent to conclude that a strong earthquake is going to occur in an area just because of these pre-warning signs and anomalies in geomagnetic waves. If earthquake prediction were that simple, there would be no need for earthquake scientists like them!

Qin Shouhua had consulted a large amount of information about the Tangshan earthquake, including some confidential information. After the Xingtai earthquake, the state has made great efforts in earthquake prediction, especially in the field of mass management and prevention, and has set up earthquake observation points in several key earthquake areas identified by the state, in every village and every middle school, focusing on observing and collecting various abnormal data and pre-earthquake warnings.

Earthquake science and technology workers have long noticed the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangtang area, carried out key monitoring, and formulated short- and medium-term forecasts, obtaining a large amount of first-hand information. It's just that when I was making an earthquake forecast, I missed this big earthquake! Before the earthquake struck, some anomalies were noted at various observation points, some of which were even very obvious. The experts consulted based on the information summarized, but it was difficult to draw conclusions!

According to the analysis of experts, according to these pre-earthquake warnings, it is very likely that a strong earthquake will occur, but it is only possible! According to the situation in the whole country, similar problems have been reported in many areas, and the pre-earthquake warning is very obvious, but in the end, there is no earthquake, just a false alarm! In such a political and economic center as Beijing, Tianjin and Tangzhou, experts and officials are even more cautious, and do not dare to draw conclusions and issue early warnings.

Qin Shouhua's doctoral supervisor was in charge of the analysis and forecasting work of the National Earthquake Administration at that time, and in the face of the complex and severe situation, the supervisor told the staff to be cautious about earthquake forecasting! It was because of this sentence that Qin Shouhua's mentor was pushed to the forefront! A week later, the Tangshan earthquake struck unexpectedly, and hundreds of thousands of people were wiped out!

The earthquake forecast was missed, and the country's efforts for many years were not rewarded, and the public took all their anger out on the National Earthquake Administration, and 10,000 people signed a petition demanding that the director of the bureau and the director of the forecast office be shot. To this day, as long as you look up the sinners of the Tangshan earthquake on the Internet, the name of Qin Shouhua's mentor is impressively listed!

After carrying this heavy burden, perhaps out of guilt for the victims, Qin Shouhua's mentor made a 360-degree turn and began to attach great importance to the study of pre-earthquake signs. However, nature has repeatedly joked with this earthquake scientist, and the earthquake warnings based on pre-earthquake data and a series of anomalies have repeatedly been misreported.

In an earthquake meeting chaired by the mentor, the pre-earthquake data was very similar to the Tangshan earthquake, and the mentor strongly concluded that a strong earthquake would occur in the area in the near future, and suggested that the government issue an earthquake warning for emergency avoidance. The local government evacuated hundreds of thousands of people urgently at any cost, but only a small earthquake of magnitude 4 was not noticeable!

After this incident, Qin Shouhua's mentor fell into extreme confusion, and he never dared to speak easily from now on! According to the sentiment of this earthquake worker, the mechanism of earthquake is too advanced and complex, and the current scientific level is simply impossible to make accurate predictions!

After Zhang Qingchuan finished explaining the basis of his judgment, Qin Shouhua said coldly: "Teacher Zhang, I have read this report you wrote, and the natural anomalies you have collected are very full and detailed, which makes us professional earthquake workers feel ashamed. According to people's experience, there were indeed such signs before some major earthquakes occurred.

However, I would like to remind Mr. Zhang that it is not these signs that a major earthquake will definitely occur! After the Wenchuan earthquake, there was a strange migration of tens of thousands of toads in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, and many people believed that this was a harbinger of a major earthquake. The local earthquake department also attaches great importance to it and reports it to the national bureau in a timely manner.

The national bureau summoned experts to the site for a meeting and came to the conclusion that there would be no major earthquake in the area. What happened later became clear to everyone, and it completely confirmed that the experts' conclusions were completely correct.

If we see these things, we predict that a major earthquake will occur, and our whole society will be in chaos, and the masses will not be able to live normally at all.

Another point is the land electric instrument used by Mr. Zhang. This thing is an old instrument from decades ago, and it can still play a certain detection function in the environment at that time. With the proliferation of modern overhead wires and radio waves, which cause great interference to such instruments, it is difficult to measure the true geomagnetic wave changes in an area.

Based on the data provided by Mr. Zhang, it is difficult to conclude that a strong earthquake will occur in the Gyeongju area in the near future. As for the earthquake of magnitude 8 or higher that will occur within a week, it is even more difficult to agree! ”

The two men then engaged in a heated debate. After decades of self-study, Zhang Qingchuan has a wide range of knowledge in earthquake and has deep attainments. Qin Shouhua is a doctor of geology, and his science is even more profound. The two of you come and go, each with their own opinions, and no one can convince anyone.

Zhang Qingchuan saw that the experts of the Earthquake Bureau did not accept his prediction results, and that it was difficult for him to refute the experts with profound internal skills in theory, and his head sweated in a hurry. Zhang Qingchuan looked at Han Qin and the provincial party committee, and said anxiously: "I dare to use my head to guarantee that there will definitely be a big earthquake in Gyeongju." I begged that I be locked up first, as long as the government issued an earthquake forecast and let the people take refuge from the disaster. If my forecast goes wrong, I'm willing to be shot! ”

Qin Shouhua is very disdainful of Zhang Qingchuan's hand, and only people can make it, which is clearly a gambler's practice!

How can such a large-scale earthquake forecast be released casually, and the social impact is amazing! For these non-governmental people, even if the consequences are serious, the government still bears the responsibility. The so-called head guarantee is even more ridiculous, now it is a society under the rule of law, where is there such a clause in the law!

However, these folks, who know little about earthquakes, can predict a large earthquake as long as a blind man meets a dead mouse and can happen to predict a large earthquake, and the benefits are endless! An obscure amateur will become an authoritative master in an instant, and the sound will shock the world, and flowers and money will naturally follow! In the face of such huge gains, it is only natural that these people will do everything possible to encourage the government to believe their words.

Han Qin saw that Zhang Qingchuan and Qin Shouhua were arguing inseparably, and the provincial party committee had no way to make a decision, but the Gyeongju earthquake was approaching minute by minute! For such a strong earthquake, the government must issue an early warning mobilization at least one day in advance before it has fortification significance, and it takes time to report to the central government and expert argumentation. Han Qin frowned, thinking about how to make the provincial party committee realize that the Gyeongju earthquake was imminent.

Li Zhihua summed up Qin Shouhua's point of view, and asked calmly: "I listened to the debate between the two of you, and I feel that it makes sense. Qin Gong, you are the highest official in charge of earthquake forecasting in our Donghai Province, and you are naturally an authority. So, do you think earthquakes can be predicted accurately or at all? ”

Qin Shouhua frowned slightly, the provincial party committee *** is simply commanding his army! If the answer can be accurately predicted, you must come up with a clear conclusion that Gyeongju will not have a strong earthquake in the near future! He, Qin Shouhua, is not a non-governmental person, so he can talk about it. His conclusion represents the Donghai Provincial Earthquake Bureau, and the provincial leaders should use it as the basis for decision-making, and once they make a wrong forecast, the tragedy of the mentor will be repeated in themselves.

However, if you answer that the earthquake cannot be predicted at all, it is tantamount to a direct slap in the face! Since earthquakes are unpredictable, what is the need for him, the chief engineer and analysis and forecasting room, to exist? Even if it is said that there is no need for the entire earthquake bureau to exist, why should the country waste the blood and sweat of taxpayers to raise a bunch of waste!

Qin Shouhua calmed down his emotions and said: "Li ***, as a natural phenomenon, earthquakes have certain laws, and like other disciplines, they will definitely be recognized by people. I believe that earthquake prediction can be as accurate as weather forecasting.

However, at the current level of science, our understanding of the planet is still very superficial. The radius of the earth is more than 6,000 kilometers, and we have only studied the area of 12 kilometers in depth. We know very little about the entire earth, let alone accurately grasp the laws of its motion.

Mathematically, we have not yet established a universal analytical model to scientifically analyze the monitored data. This results in the same set of data, and different people have different judgments, or even complete opposites.

In my personal opinion, the current stage of earthquake analysis and prediction has not yet formed a scientific theoretical system and is in the exploratory stage. We earthquake scientists should work hard, accumulate experience, and lay a good foundation, instead of rushing to make earthquake predictions out of the sake of fame and fortune.

Based on the current state of science, the accuracy of earthquake prediction is quite low. Earthquake forecasts and weather forecasts are not the same, even if the weather forecast is misreported, at most it will be scolded twice, and the loss is limited, and once the earthquake is misreported, it will cause immeasurable losses! ”

Seeing that the provincial party committee bowed slightly, Qin Shouhua made another killer move, glanced at Zhang Qingchuan carelessly, and said: "Li ***, according to Mr. Zhang's forecast, there will be an eight-magnitude earthquake in Gyeongju within a week. This is simply sensational! What is the concept of a magnitude 8 earthquake? It is equivalent to another Wencheon earthquake in Gyeongju, and the destructive power of such an earthquake is far beyond the scope of Gyeongju!

Gyeongju is the westernmost part of our East China Sea, at the junction of the three provinces, and as long as we carry out earthquake early warning in the East China Sea, it is equivalent to the same warning of the three provinces at the same time. How to grasp this scope is for the leaders of the provincial party committee to consider carefully. ”

Qin Shouhua once listened to some people privately communicate at a professional meeting, if you are not 100% sure, the government will definitely not be able to issue an earthquake forecast! People have an instinctive fear of this kind of natural disaster, and once an early warning is issued, the social impact is incalculable, and if it is not well organized, it is likely to cause social chaos.

Some people also make a meaningful analogy that human life is limited, and no matter how much you live to be 70 years old or 80 years old, you cannot get rid of this natural law. Although we know that death is inevitable because of the uncertainty of the date of death, everyone is still full of confidence and joy in life!

If one day scientists were able to estimate people's lifespans, to the exact date and time, it would be a game-changing horror! Earthquake prediction has the same effect, disasters are inevitable, and no one spends their days worrying. The issuance of an earthquake warning without 100 percent certainty can only add tremendous psychological pressure to the people. What's more, once the wolf comes and shouts too much, when the wolf really comes, no one will believe it!

Li Zhihua nodded slightly, feeling that what the chief engineer of the Earthquake Bureau said was not unreasonable, and the provincial party committee would indeed consider it carefully, if it was just based on the judgment of an amateur earthquake observer, it would be too rash to issue a strong earthquake warning! According to the current level of earthquake prediction, there are many elements of gambling, and if the gambling is accurate, it will not only avoid the loss of people's livelihood and property, but also bring huge reputation to the government and leaders. Once it becomes a false alarm, the responsibility is also huge!

After a little consideration, Li Zhihua said solemnly: "After listening to what you just said, I have benefited a lot, and I am very grateful to the comrades. Regarding the situation in Gyeongju, based on everyone's opinions, we will not make a decision for the time being. However, in line with the attitude of being responsible for the safety of the people's lives and property, after returning home, the comrades of the Earthquake Bureau must immediately organize personnel to investigate and verify the abnormal situation in Gyeongju, strengthen the monitoring force, closely monitor the changes in Gyeongju's data, discover new situations, and report to the provincial party committee and government at any time. ”

The provincial party committee made a concluding speech, which is equivalent to setting the tone for today's work report. Seeing that the earthquake forecast he reported could not be resolved, Zhang Qingchuan suddenly became anxious and said loudly: "Li ***, please believe me, there will definitely be a big earthquake in Gyeongju, and if you delay it like this, it will be too late." ”

Li Zhihua smiled indifferently: "Teacher Zhang, on behalf of the people of Gyeongju, I thank you for reporting to the provincial party committee. Earthquake prediction is highly scientific and complex. After the comrades of the Earthquake Bureau go back, they will immediately increase the monitoring force of Gyeongju, and the provincial party committee and provincial government will take countermeasures at any time according to the changes in the situation! ”

Han Qin saw that Zhang Qingchuan's anxious head was sweating, and he wanted to continue to explain to the provincial party committee, so he hurriedly stepped forward and said: "Teacher Zhang, Li *** has already made work arrangements, you can rest assured!" As long as there is a possibility of a major earthquake in Gyeongju, the engineers of the Earthquake Bureau will be able to monitor it! ”

In the face of such a major right and wrong, relying on Zhang Qingchuan's own strength alone, it is difficult for a civilian earthquake observer to change the views of the provincial party committee.

Han Qin knew that in order to let the people of Gyeongju avoid this tragedy, Zhang Qingchuan's mission had been completed, and he should go on his own and show his skills!