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Chen Jing came to Hong Kong this time to assess the impact of the Southeast Asian economic crisis on the disc machine market, she specially postponed a day, and Zijia walked with Huishan, but did not expect that on the second day of their arrival in Hong Kong, the golden crocodile giant crocodiles launched a third wave of fierce attacks on the Thai baht, and the Thai baht exchange rate broke through the previous low on the same day. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info

Chen Jing also argued with Ge Yinjun in Hong Kong to adjust the operations of overseas companies in response to the impending recession in Southeast Asia, but did not expect the economic crisis to develop at full speed and brew into a storm in a lightning flash.

Starting from Aida Electronics, from July 11 to 19, a total of 15 red chip listed companies in the Hong Kong stock market issued an early warning that they would be affected by the economic recession in Southeast Asia to adjust their performance expectations.

Since mid-June, the Hang Seng Index has hit a record high for 10 times, and after hitting a high of 17,000 points in early July, it has fallen slightly, but it is still hovering at the 16,000-point line. Before July 11, the vast majority of financial media predicted a short-term correction in the market, but the vast majority of people still believe that the market will continue its upward journey after the correction.

The announcement of the 15 domestic-controlled red-chip listed companies can almost be said to have acted in unison, and the announcement of the warning news is naturally unusually harsh to Hong Kong investors.

Hong Kong stock editors, Hong Kong Economic Times, Ming Pao and other financial media have all published articles accusing the red chips of varying degrees of collective early warning that some people are behind the scenes and are suspected of manipulating the stock market.

In the early morning of the 20th, the Central Bank of Thailand suddenly announced through Thai state television that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate mechanism that had been pegged to the US dollar for 14 years, and implement a managed floating exchange rate system, and also announced that it would raise the domestic baht interest rate from 10.5% to 12.5%.

At that moment, Zhang Ke seemed to be able to hear the frenzied cheers of countless currency speculators in the Peninsula Hotel - Ye Jianbin and they did cheer - and the contrast was the terrible wail of the slaughtered sheep! Among them, the most miserable howls are probably the Bank of Thailand and the Thai people.

Of course, Zhang Ke does not have the sympathy for the flood, they themselves are poachers mixed in with countless currency speculators, but they are reincarnated as human beings, and they should experience this history again, and they should have experienced this history in person, and they will always feel a little emotional.

When the Singapore international currency exchange market opened, the Thai baht exchange rate broke through 31 like mercury, falling by more than 13% in an instant, which was shocking.

Of course, as long as the Thai government does not announce the abolition of the Thai baht, the Thai baht will have the value of its national economy, and there is an irrational impulse to vent the exchange rate at this moment......

Of course, a huge number of buy orders also poured out......

In an instant, the sweat on Ye Jianbin's forehead oozed out.

The short position of 7 billion baht they had established in the early stage, and the brilliance of the mercury in the blink of an eye, made their profit as high as 840 million baht.

At this time, the buy order was delivered, and the previous accumulated profit was close to nearly $40 million.

To deliver or not to deliver? Ye Jianbin subconsciously glanced at Zhang Ke.

Zhang Ke looked at Nick Leeson's side, he wanted to look at the demeanor of the so-called top trader in this situation.

Although the Thai baht will experience several shocks in the coming year, the delivery period of the Thai baht forward contract in their accumulated short positions is mostly concentrated in September, and the liquidation operation must be carried out before the delivery period.

Before September, was this moment the lowest point for the Thai baht against the dollar? If the judgment is yes, then it is necessary to decisively close the position and keep the current fruits of victory, otherwise every time the baht rebounds a little, their fruits of victory will be eaten away.

Nick Leessen's face was a little pale, his eyes looked bigger and brighter than usual at this time, as if he was a cheetah that had licked blood, and the computer screen displayed the real data of the foreign exchange market in Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong and other places. Short positions and funds are scattered in dozens of secret accounts, and he has to give a string of instructions to the operator over the phone, some open positions, some close positions, the number is different, the account code is different, mixed with spot contracts, forward contracts and a small number of futures contract transactions, Ye Jianbin was dazzled when he heard it, and he could only roughly feel that Nick Leessen was still increasing his position at this moment.

I can clearly hear the noise on the phone, the traders are running, shouting hysterically, this moment is a paradise for bears, a hell for bulls - the Bank of Thailand, which should be the largest bull in the Thai baht, has given up resistance, and the few speculators who expect the Thai government to resist forcefully and do not recognize the situation are dead and in debt, they are screaming, and they can be clearly heard from the command phone, and the creepy screams are terrifying.

During this time, it was only enough for Du Fei to understand the knowledge of foreign exchange trading, and it was difficult for him to get rid of the interference of the noise on the phone and keep up with Nick Leeson's instructions, let alone understand the intention of Nick Leeson's instructions in an instant.

"Generally speaking, a novice trader is likely to passively accept instructions for most of the year...... Zhang Ke gently pressed Du Fei's shoulder, there is a specialization in the industry, Nick Leesen, as a first-class trader in the industry, has his own advantages, forcing himself to follow his path, that is asking for hardship.

Ye Jianbin was inconvenient to interfere with Nick Li Sen to give orders to his traders, he just looked at Zhang Ke, he would rather believe in Zhang Ke's genius-like keen intuition at this time; Zhang Ke didn't speak, so he didn't speak.

Nick Leessen took advantage of the gap to turn around and explain to Zhang Ke and Ye Jianbin: "I thought there would be a wave of shock today, and this moment is not the exchange rate that the Thai baht can balance in the short term......"

Zhang Ke nodded and said, "You are a professional, do we have any other choice but to trust you?" smiled, turned around and walked out, Ye Jianbin reluctantly stared at the screen for a few more seconds before walking out with Du Fei and Zhang Ke.

Taking the elevator back to the suite on the 28th floor, Zhang Kecai joked with Ye Jianbin and said, "Do you want to take your pulse?" ”

Ye Jianbin felt his heart tighten in the operation room just now, and when he watched the exchange rate fall vertically, he had some convulsions, and if his heart function was not good, he might induce a heart attack on the spot; I didn't realize that the pulse was accelerating, and when I heard Zhang Ke's reminder, my fingers were on the pulse, which was unusually fast, almost the same as after running a thousand meters.

The easiest way to make a profit by speculating on the Thai Baht is to short the Thai Baht in the foreign exchange spot market.

It is expected that the Thai baht will depreciate the US dollar at some point in the future, so it will borrow a large amount of Thai baht from relevant channels in advance, sell the Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot market to obtain US dollars, and after the Thai baht depreciates, then use the US dollar to buy the Thai baht from the foreign exchange spot market to repay the loan, and the remaining US dollars after the repayment of principal and interest constitute speculative income.

The trading method of foreign exchange spot contracts is actually similar to the above process, except that the transaction amount is magnified through the leverage of margin, also known as margin trading.

In addition to speculating in the foreign exchange spot trading market to make a profit, another common way to attack a domestic market is to borrow Thai baht forward contracts from investment banks to sell, before the delivery of the forward contract, the Thai baht depreciates, and the reverse operation closes the position, which can be profitable.

Trading in forward contracts is similar to trading in futures contracts, but before the crisis, futures contracts lacked receivers and volumes were extremely sluggish, with little involvement by currency speculators except for the ability to open short positions three to five months in advance.

A more sophisticated method of speculation is to first short Thai bonds, stocks and stock futures in the Thai securities market, and then short the Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot and forward markets, and then make a double profit when the Thai baht depreciates and the Thai securities market collapses.

The Quantum Fund, Tiger Fund and other major players attacking the Thai baht are well prepared, and are bound to establish a large number of short positions at the same time through a variety of trading methods, and finally completely defeat the Thai government's defense through spot, spot contracts and forward contracts.

Zhang Ke and his team were late in withdrawing their funds, and they only had time to open a short position of nearly 7 billion baht in spot and forward contract transactions.

After the Thai government abandoned its defense, it was a carnival of bears.

On July 20, as of the close of the Singapore international currency exchange market at 4 p.m., the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar closed at 31.87, once piercing 32.1, and Nick Leessen decisively closed his position at the 32 exchange rate, with a cumulative profit of 54 million US dollars.

After the Thai government gave up resistance, the Bank of Thailand will not continue to take over in the foreign exchange market within a tolerable range, and the financial giant after the short position is closed will lose its ravaging target at the Thai baht line, but the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, which were originally known as the four Asian tigers together with Thailand, have naturally become new prey.

Unfortunately, the risks inherent in the sharp oscillation of the Thai baht and the fact that Southeast Asian countries have sharply increased the offshore lending interest rate of the bank's local currency to punish those who lend money to currency speculators - investment banks lend money to speculators to speculate in order to collect commissions to make a profit, but during the period of strict supervision, they must lend money from the central bank of the currency-issuing country to ensure their own currency adequacy ratio, and the interest rate on the call has increased significantly, and the cost of investment banks for these speculators has also increased - plus the surge of currency speculatorsThe demand for contract trading has increased sharply, and the currency holdings of foreign banks in Europe and the United States in Southeast Asia are not unlimited, so it is inevitable that they will be forced to significantly reduce the leverage ratio of contract transactions and increase commissions.

International currency speculators are now almost forced to short sell in the spot market, but the bloodshed of the baht's initial win will attract more profit-seekers.

The absence of leverage, or the sharp weakening of leverage, is not an accident that the rest of Southeast Asia will be less attacked, but only that the profit margin spread to each currency speculator will drop significantly.

Zhang Ke can only be glad that they have established a short position of Rp500 billion in advance, otherwise they can only enjoy the good thing of swallowing more than 54 million US dollars in profits in one bite.

Unfortunately, the largest period of depreciation of the rupiah was after the first financial turmoil - the largest depreciation of the rupiah in the markets of Southeast Asian countries, when Indonesia had abandoned the fixed exchange rate system. After Indonesia abandons the fixed exchange rate system, the Bank of Indonesia will not enter the foreign exchange market to take over, and the short positions of forward contracts cannot be established, and most of the short positions of the forward contracts they have established in their hands are in the third month, and due to the limitation of the delivery period, they cannot continue at the end of this year, so they will naturally not be able to grasp the largest depreciation.

can only take a small bite on the fattest piece of fat, and it cannot be said that it is not deplorable; Of course, Zhang Ke will not let this regret in his heart be expressed.

After the liquidation of the Thai baht spot and forward contracts, the total amount of funds remaining in the secret account is as high as 150 million US dollars, but it is unknown how much more money can be gained from the tens of billions of international travel funds mixed with this time.

On July 20, the Asian financial turmoil officially set off a raging tide in Thailand, 18 days later than the history known to Zhang Ke, but in the end, it followed the irreversible trend of history, and on the Internet, which is more developed in Hong Kong than in the mainland, we can see that Thailand's foreign exchange and other financial markets are chaotic and bleak......

Thailand's stock market and property market collapsed, and the economy fell into a complete recession, Zhang Ke read a report that in the three years since the outbreak of the economic crisis, a total of 77 listed companies have been forced to withdraw, none of which can be successfully listed on the Thai stock exchange market, and the largest oil company owes $27 billion in foreign debt.

The day's turmoil in Thailand's financial markets also affected the entire Asian financial market, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling 480 points in one day following the downward trend of oscillation some time ago. However, commentators in Ming Pao and Hong Kong Economic Times have changed their conspiracy theories a few days ago, and have written articles predicting that a large-scale Southeast Asian economic crisis is brewing sharply, and financial institutions such as Guofu Investment have also lowered their expectations for the market outlook......

Zhang Ke remembered the period of history he experienced, the Southeast Asian economic crisis had broken out for almost a month, and the Hang Seng Index was still trying to hit a new all-time high, which just allowed international speculators to return to their teachers after ravaging Southeast Asian countries and have ample time to establish a large number of short positions in the Hong Kong stock and futures markets -- surprisingly, during that time, the Hong Kong financial media completely ignored the scale of the Southeast Asian economic crisis and the possible impact on Hong Kong's capital market, and the international speculators who entered the Hong Kong financial market in advance added fuel to the fire. As a result, Hong Kong's financial market became an ATM for international speculators from October '97 to July '98 -- even if they repelled these international speculators in the final battle -- a large number of Hong Kong investors were unable to get out of it.

Ye Jianbin said that he wanted to open the bottle of dry red to celebrate, Zhang Ke looked at his watch, it was only four o'clock in the afternoon, he ignored Ye Jianbin and only said that Tang Jing and Sheng Xia had been out for a long time, and he and Du Fei went to pick them up.

The Peninsula Hotel is located in the heart of the Tsim Sha Tsui district of the Kowloon Peninsula, with the stunning scenery of Victoria Harbour, surrounded by famous shopping, business and entertainment centers, and the Temple Street of Yau Ma Tei on both sides of Nathan Road.

Tang Jing and Midsummer have lived in the Peninsula Hotel for ten days, and even if Zhang Ke and Du Fei can't spare time to accompany them during the day, they are not lonely.

On the phone with Tang Jing, she and Sheng Xia were walking from Tianxing Pier to the Peninsula Hotel accompanied by Fu Jun, Zhang Ke put down the phone, left Ye Jianbin behind, and Du Fei went downstairs to the tea house in the lobby of the Peninsula Hotel to wait for Tang Jing and Sheng Xia to come back. Ye Jianbin wanted to accompany Nick Leesen and his two assistants to celebrate a little at night.

Zhang Ke helped Tang Jing and Sheng Xia order drinks and snacks at the tea house, and it took more than ten minutes for them to walk from Tianxing Wharf, Du Fei must have been shocked by today's scene, showing a thoughtful look from time to time, and a little taciturn.

Zhang Ke smiled faintly and asked Du Fei: "Do you want to go to the exchange to feel it?" At such moments, there are always people who go to heaven and people who fall into hell......"

The mobile phone on the coffee table vibrate, Zhang Ke answered the phone, Tang Jing and the others were about to arrive at the hotel, and asked him and Du Fei where they were waiting for them.

"When you walk into the lobby of the hotel, you can see me waving to you!" Zhang Ke smiled and said, "Or do you want me to come out to greet you in person?" ”

"Ahh

But at this moment, Zhang Ke heard Tang Jing's sharp and frightened voice on the phone, and he didn't know what was happening, so Zhang Ke pulled out his legs and ran over to the outside of the lobby.