Chapter 450: Prelude
According to memory, the real outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis was on December 19, 1994, when in the middle of the night, the Mexican political axe suddenly announced that the national currency, the peso, had depreciated by 15%, which was a fuse, detonating the powder keg that was about to explode, causing great panic in the market.
Mexico was too dependent on foreign capital before this, and the depreciation of its currency, the peso, caused the peso funds in the hands of foreign investment peso investors to shrink rapidly, and they frantically sold their pesos and began to rush to buy dollars. It also caused a sharp drop in the exchange rate of the peso.
By December 20, in just one day, the exchange rate had fallen from 3.47 pesos to the U.S. dollar to 3.925 pesos to the U.S. dollar, a sharp drop of 13%.
The crisis did not end there, investors still sold their pesos and snapped up the dollar, which fell another 15.3% on December 21.
In just two days, only two days, with the depreciation of the peso, foreign investors withdrew a large number of funds, and Mexico's foreign exchange reserves plummeted by nearly $4 billion in just two days between the 20th and 21st.
On the third day, December 22, the peso continued to fall sharply, and the entire financial market in Mexico was in chaos, and in just three days, the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the US dollar plummeted by 42.17%, such a large decline is extremely rare in modern financial history.
Mexico appeared, which meant that the financial crisis had officially begun.
With the sharp drop in the exchange rate, there was a butterfly effect, and the stock market also fell sharply. In Mexico, about 70 percent of the foreign capital absorbed is speculative short-term portfolio investment, and the capital outflow is like a drain on the Mexican stock market, and the Mexican stock market has fallen in response. On December 30, Mexico's IPC index fell 6.26%.
On January 10, 1995, it fell by 11%.
By March 3, the IPC index of the Mexican stock market had fallen to 1,500 points, a cumulative decline of 47.94% from the peak of 2,881.17 points before the 1994 financial crisis, and the decline in the stock market exceeded the depreciation of the peso.
In order to stabilize Mexico's financial market, Mexico's political axe, after multi-party consultations, launched an emergency economic rescue plan to reduce the current account deficit to a level that can be paid normally as soon as possible, quickly restore normal economic activities and employment, reduce inflation to the smallest possible level, and apply for emergency loan assistance from international financial institutions.
And in order to help the Mexican political axe tide over the difficulties and reduce the losses of foreign investors, international financial institutions such as the American political axe and the International Monetary Fund decided to provide huge loans to support the Mexican economic rescue plan to stabilize the exchange rate, the stock market, and investor confidence.
It was not until the gradual arrival of $50 billion in international capital assistance, led by the United States, that Mexico's financial turmoil subsided in the first half of 1995.
The situation of the entire financial crisis is clearly imprinted in Lu Shaohua's mind, including a lot of detailed data, Lu Shaohua is clear.
Not only that, in addition to the situation in Mexico, Lu Shaohua also clearly remembers the situation in several other countries.
Affected by the Mexican financial crisis, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and other Latin American countries have similar economic structures to Mexico, and all have economic problems such as heavy debt, trade deficits, and overvalued currencies to varying degrees.
Latin American stock markets plunged as foreign investors sold off stocks in Mexico for fear of the spread of the financial crisis across Latin America. On the day of Mexico's currency crisis, stock indices in Latin American countries fell in tandem with Mexico's stock indexes.
The stock index fell by 11.8% in Brazil, 5.0% in Argentina and 3.4% in Chile. On 10 January 1995, compared to the beginning of January, the stock exchange in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil fell by 9.8 per cent and 9.1 per cent, respectively, the Buenos Aires stock exchange in Argentina fell by 15 per cent, the Lima stock exchange in Peru fell by 8.42 per cent and the Chilean stock exchange fell by 3.8 per cent.
At the same time, the prices of various bonds issued by Latin American countries have also plummeted. In the stock market crash, investors withdrew $1.6 billion from Argentina and $1.226 billion from Brazil, equivalent to 10% of the total foreign investment in Brazil, and the entire Latin American securities market lost $8.9 billion.
Several other countries have had a financial crisis of considerable proportions, but these are not what Lu Shaohua needs to care about, after all, his energy is limited, and it is impossible for every country to run a circle, well, even if he has that energy, his manpower is not enough to deal with so many countries.
Therefore, Lu Shaohua can only concentrate his manpower and move to the country that can make the most money for himself, and this country is the one who takes the lead, Mexico.
Attacking Mexico is something that Lu Shaohua has already decided, but how to start, and starting from that aspect is a problem that Lu Shaohua should consider, and it is also the main reason why he came to Mexico ahead of schedule.
Layout, yes, layout, in Mexico, the political axe has not yet announced the news of the depreciation of the peso, Lu Shaohua can be fully prepared first, speculate on the exchange rate, like 92 pounds, make a fortune first, and then start against the stock market.
The exchange rate and the stock market are Lu Shaohua's two major goals this time, and all the layouts must be carried out around these two goals, and what to do before, this does not need Lu Shaohua to worry about it, his two generals, Liu Mingzhang and Li Zongen, are by his side, as long as they explain the situation, the two of them will know what to do.
…… In the study on the third floor of the villa.
Lu Shaohua, Liu Mingzhang, Li Zongen and the old man surnamed Feng, all four of them sat inside, the hall was silent, and no one spoke.
This small meeting was convened by Lu Shaohua, and needless to say, the purpose was to come for the financial crisis.
"It seems like we've been in Mexico for a while, right?" Lu Shaohua's first sentence did not cut to the chase, but asked an irrelevant question.
"It's been almost a week." Liu Mingzhang said lightly, with a little impatience in his tone.
Thinking about it, it has been nearly a week since they came to Mexico, but Lu Shaohua did not give any orders for a long time, but just asked everyone to visit Mexico City first, have a good time, and relax when they are fine.
Regarding Liu Mingzhang's impatience, Lu Shaohua just smiled faintly, ignored him, and then muttered to himself in a low voice. "yes, it's been almost a week, I've been playing, I'm relaxing, it's time to do something."
'Do things? 'Doing things is nothing more than starting to act.
And when Liu Mingzhang heard this, the impatience in his heart didn't know where to fly, and he said excitedly. "I've got enough spirit to do it at any time."
Lu Shaohua glanced at Liu Mingzhang angrily, and then asked him. "Is there any news from Soros?"
With the time of the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis getting closer and closer, it is only nearly a month away, and it is time for Soros, the leader of the quantum fund involved in the fight against Mexico, to come to Mexico and get ready.
"Without news from him, it was as if he had news." Liu Mingzhang shook his head and said, and then added. "But recently, he seems to have closed the mountain, and he can't be found."
"Hmm." Lu Shaohua is not surprised at all, the financial crisis is about to break out, Soros has the leisure to do other 'business', he must have concentrated all his energy on Mexico, and it is normal to lose his trace. "Pay attention to his news, and if you know he's coming to Mexico, tell me, well, you don't have to tell me, just keep an eye on him."
Who Soros is, Lu Shaohua couldn't be clearer, but when it comes to the back, Lu Shaohua seems to realize that he cares too much about Soros, although he is an international financial hunter, but it doesn't seem to matter to Lu Shaohua, Lu Shaohua He only needs to pay attention to his movements, and he doesn't need to pay attention to him personally.
Liu Mingzhang was different, he didn't know what Lu Shaohua meant, and asked. "Shall I keep an eye on him or will I tell you about his whereabouts?"
"Just keep an eye on him, you don't need to tell me." Lu Shaohua waved his hand and said.
"Okay," Liu Mingzhang nodded to show that he understood.
"Hmm." Lu Shaohua answered, and then his eyes swept over the faces of the three of them one by one, his face became serious, and he muttered for a long time before continuing. "The situation in Mexico is still very stable, but that doesn't mean it's without problems, other financial crises have already formed, just a fuse, as long as the fuse is lit, that's when the financial crisis breaks out."
Lu Shaohua said a nonsense, but there was no way, if he wanted to cut into the topic, he also needed an introduction, and only with an introduction could he really cut into the topic, and this nonsense was Lu Shaohua's introduction.
After a pause, without waiting for everyone to speak, Lu Shaohua continued. "As things stand, the crisis will be about a month from now, and when it does, the Mexican peso will depreciate and the exchange rate against the dollar will plummet."
Lu Shaohua is a person with memories, but at this time, he can only use estimates, because Lu Shaohui can't say that I am sure that the financial crisis will break out in a month, or that I am a reborn person, and the memory tells me that it will break out in a month.
The matter of rebirth has always been Lu Shaohua's biggest secret, even his parents and closest people, he has never said it, let alone Liu Mingzhang and them, Lu Shaohua is even more unlikely to tell them, so it is the most ideal thing to estimate.
"A month later, hehe! Now the layout is just right. Liu Mingzhang said with a straight smile.
I still remember that when the stock market crash was called, Lu Shaohua went to the layout several months in advance, but Mexico can't be compared with the capital of that year, it doesn't take a few months, it only takes a month.
"A month is not much of a problem." Li Zongen made assurances.
Lu Shaohua is a legend, from Phoenix Finance to the present, his 'estimate' has not been missed, so whether it is Liu Mingzhang or Li Zongen, they don't even need to think about it, they think that the one-month period that Lu Shaohua said will break out.
But the old man surnamed Feng was different, and his understanding of Lu Shaohua was limited to his military rank of chairman and major general of the Phoenix Group. Since he only understands this little bit, how can he be sure of the one-month period that Lu Shaohua said?
Glancing at Lu Shaohua, the old man surnamed Feng moved his mouth as if he wanted to say something, but in the end he didn't say it, but fell into deep thought, organized his language, and then asked.
……
(To be continued)