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Soon after the second, everyone's attention was focused on the ** epidemic cannon six, not six

But it is clear that no one is taking this issue too seriously, and now everyone is most concerned about the Iraqi side, and the Americans have been clamoring for Saddam Hussein and his son to leave Iraq, otherwise they will launch a military attack on them.

China has a lot of investment in Iraq, especially in oil, if war breaks out. Then the losses here will be very large. As a result, all stakeholders involved are urging the government to play a role on this issue and avoid the outbreak of war.

"At the very least, the Security Council must veto the US proposal, and they must not be allowed to send troops to Iraq under the guise of justice." A businessman who has invested heavily in Iraq said worriedly.

Fan Wuxian doesn't care about this issue. He didn't have much investment in Iraq anyway.

Some analysts believe that once the US-Iraq war breaks out, it will definitely have an impact on China's economy.

US President George W. Bush has declared that he will use "all forces" to completely defeat Saddam's regime. The new Gulf War has actually begun. At the touch of a button, as some US media have claimed, the actions of the US military have been equivalent to the early days of the war.

Today, the process of global integration is intensifying. Although China is far from the battlefield, it is undeniable that once the war breaks out, China's economy and China's stock market will inevitably be unsmuggled.

To put it simply, once the US-Iraq war broke out. Its impact will be transmitted to China's economy through several channels such as petroleum, foreign trade, labor engineering, finance, and investment, and will have a greater or lesser impact on the domestic securities market.

Recently, due to the tension between the United States and Iran and the shrouded abandonment of war, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, and the increase has reached 30% in the past two months. If the United States and Iraq once the war, international crude oil may soar to more than $40 per barrel, Yifeng and other petrochemical basic raw materials are bullish in the future, and it is expected that plastic raw materials will also go higher, and the stock price of plastic raw materials has risen against the trend a few days ago.

Price fluctuations in the international oil market will have a considerable impact on China's national economy.

On the one hand, about 30% of the country's total oil consumption is imported into China every year, and more than half of the imported oil comes from the Middle East, which shows that China's dependence on Middle East oil is very high.

By comparison, Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is only about 40 percent.

Compared to European countries that have spoken out against the war, the pressure on domestic oil trade is clear.

On the other hand, the upstream and downstream products of petroleum and related products are affected by their prices, and there will naturally be varying degrees of price fluctuations in import and export trade. The securities market, as the most sensitive area of the national economy, has already made an early response to this.

With the continuous deterioration of the situation in the Gulf, most of the overseas stock markets have fluctuated and fallen, although the Chinese stock market has not yet been officially integrated with the world stock market, but it has a certain linkage phenomenon, and some oil stocks have begun to bear.

At present, the US military is ready to fight. The only question is how resilient the Iraqi military is and how strong is the US military? If the United States can use force against Iraq, it can end within three to five days, as was the case in the 1991 Gulf War, and settle Saddam Hussein in a short time. If a pro-Western Iraqi regime is established, then the United States may use Iraq to develop the Middle East oil market, promote a sharp increase in oil production, reduce costs and prices, and eventually increase tax revenues through the fall in oil prices and the return of international capital to the United States.

However, if the US-Iraq war enters a protracted war, and the war drags on for a long time, it will lead to further turmoil in the Islamic world, and the international crude oil price will skyrocket to more than $40 per barrel, and the continued rise in oil prices will lead to an increase in global production costs and have a serious impact on the world economy.

The American Enterprise Economic Research Institute believes. If the war causes serious damage to oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the US economy may grow at a rate of only 1 percent this year, and if the price of a barrel of oil reaches $40 for about a month, the US economy will fall into recession. The world economy will be hit hard.

At present, many people in China are most worried; That is, once the new Gulf War starts, the US economy will inevitably rise and fall along with the changes in the war situation. As the trend of economic globalization becomes more and more obvious, China's economy is gradually integrating into the world economy, and some major events in the world will inevitably affect China.

In the era of so-called globalization, whether China can do its best depends not only on itself, but also on the entire world economy.

With China's accession... China's stock market volatility will become more and more affected by the international environment, and the interaction between the domestic stock market and the surrounding markets will also be significantly strengthened. There will also be some direct or indirect impact on the Chinese stock market.

If the war breaks out between the United States and Iraq, China's direct interests in Iraq will be damaged, and oil, arrears, and some unfinished projects will be affected.

At the beginning of the rejection of the current oil-for-food agreement, the Chinese company Cunira-Lafang contracted a very large scale, and China's light industrial products and durable consumer goods can be seen everywhere in Iraq. products, hardware products, trucks, Chinese clothing and so on.

As soon as the war breaks out, the completion of these projects will become a problem, a large amount of unfinished project costs will be wasted, and there will be little certainty that the money for some completed projects will be recovered. Once the war is over and the puppet government in Iraq under US control comes to power, the Iraqi market will be completely under the control and monopoly of the United States, and it will be very difficult for Chinese companies to try to re-enter this market.

But there are also those who offer different opinions. I think the outbreak of the US-Iraq war may be a good thing for China.

First, the war will exacerbate the chaos in the Islamic country. While many Islamist governments are pro-American. But the hostility and hatred of Islamists towards the United States in most countries will intensify as a result of the war, leading to internal social unrest, which in turn will lead to economic and political turmoil. Second, the United States and Britain have stubbornly gone their own way and ignored the opinions of EU countries, which has further caused further differences among interest groups in Western countries. After the end of the war, Americans and those who want to invest in the United States will inevitably face even more severe terrorist acts. Under the shadow of this sense of crisis. How much money is willing to return to the U.S. market is indeed a question.

In comparison, China's secure internal and external environment and lucrative return on investment are undoubtedly more attractive.

In fact, in recent years, with the continuous enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength and relatively stable domestic environment, the Chinese market has become more and more secure to the attention of international investors.

What everyone is arguing about is nothing more than discussing whether the United States will really fight Iraq.

Fan Wuxi felt bored after listening to it. He said frankly, "The United States is already an ironclad thing in attacking Iraq, so why bother discussing this issue again?" Every time the United States goes to war, it is making money, and finally it has another chance to go to war, and the battlefield is still in Iraq, which is full of oil. It is the common people and soldiers who die, but what they get is the huge profits of the big conglomerates. Isn't it obvious at a glance? ”

"But the Americans didn't have the mandate to go to the Security Council." There are those who disagree with Fan Wuxi's opinion.

Fan Wuxian sneered, "That's a bit of a standard." There has long been a popular saying among the people, Americans can fight whoever they want. Whoever the Russians hit me, I will hit whomever I want, as for us Chinese, hehe, whoever hits me, I will scold. The rumors are all like this, do Americans need to care about whether the Security Council approves or not? ”

As soon as Fan Wuxi's words came out, the faces of these people present were red and white. Apparently everyone has heard this sentence, but it is just that no one expected to say it in public.

"I got the information that the Americans were about to go to war on the twentieth, and now I have entered the stock market and futures market with all my positions, waiting for this war windfall!" Fan Wuxian unabashedly pointed out the date of the outbreak of the war.

"What time is it today?!" Someone next to them asked each other.

Obviously, if someone else says this, or everyone will laugh, but from Fan Wuxi's mouth, the effect is very different, although everyone still doesn't know how Fan Wuxian got the news, but it is certain that Mr. Fan's speech is generally very accurate, and he has predicted the Taiwan Zhao earthquake before.

The high-level people were also surprised, after all, the intelligence organization did not send this kind of news, similar to the prediction of the date of the war explosion, this is the most difficult, even if everyone knows that the war will break out in the near future, but it is still very difficult to be accurate to what day it is.

Fan Wuxi, how could he judge with such certainty that it would be on the twentieth? This is one of the things that makes everyone feel incredible.

The new No. 1 commander was equally surprised. I don't know if Fan Wuxi is joking, or if he really has his news channels, I can't help but look at Fan Wuxi to get a more affirmative answer.

Fan Wuxian suddenly saw that everyone was looking at him, and suddenly felt that something was wrong, so he prevaricated, "Well, don't look at me, everyone should not look at me, the information I said was told to me by Zhou Gong, but generally Zhou Gong respects me very much, and has never shaken me, everyone listens to me!" ”

Hearing that Fan Wuxian actually said that he had dreamed of it, everyone suddenly laughed and shook their heads, saying that Mr. Fan was bold and would joke on such an occasion.

It's just that some people are serious, for example, Fan Heng knows very well that his son Fan Wuxian will not talk nonsense. There are no pop-ups