Chapter 59: The Risks of Hot Money
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Obviously, everyone is still not very concerned about the education reform, after all, basic education has been shouting reform, and the changes in higher education are still not big, at most there have been some changes in enrollment, but the leading direction of change is to broaden the income of colleges and universities, which is not annoying, at least for these college teachers, this change is still gratifying.
The increase in the income of colleges and universities means that the income of college teachers can be increased accordingly, which is a good thing.
So now everyone in the small conference room began to have an equal dialogue with Fan Wuxi. A teacher in the department looked at everyone who was embarrassed to talk to the student in front of him, and took the initiative to say,
"Let me ask you a question first, Fan Wuxi, why do you attach great importance to the concept of hot money in your discourse? Do you think that the hot money from international speculators is the main reason for shaking the steady economic development of Southeast Asian countries? This is also a question that most teachers want to ask.
In recent years, under the influence of the neoliberal theories and new macroeconomic theories advocated by the IMF, the economic technocrats in these countries, who are deeply influenced by the mainstream economic theories, firmly believe that as long as they pay attention to and maintain a country's macroeconomic stability, attach importance to the balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, and adopt a demand-management policy that mixes fiscal and monetary policies, the opening up of the financial sector and capital market to the outside world will certainly be able to promote the inflow of a large amount of foreign capital, including funds in short supply, and bring about sustained, stable, and high-speed economic growth.
520 As a result, Southeast Asian countries have successively implemented reforms in the economic field, deregulating foreign exchange inflows and outflows, and relaxing the management of foreign direct investment, external credit activities, capital and monetary instruments, and financial derivatives.
While simplifying the original cumbersome procedures for foreign investment, many laws and regulations that hinder foreign investment in sensitive areas of the local country have been relaxed or even abolished, providing facilitation for investment and trade by foreign multinational corporations.
"The so-called hot money, generally speaking, can also be called floating capital. Or speculative short-term capital, short-term speculative capital that flows rapidly in the international financial market in pursuit of the highest return and the lowest risk. The speculative movement of short-term funds in the world is mainly to avoid political risks and pursue the interests of exchange rate changes, changes in the prices of important commodities or changes in the prices of international securities, while hot money is a speculative behavior that pursues the interests of exchange rate changes. After thinking about it for a while, Fan Wuxian said to everyone,
Although the general definition can be said to be this way, it is not easy to identify hot money and determine the amount of hot money. \\\\\ because hot money is not static, some long-term capital can also be converted into short-term capital under certain circumstances. Short-term capital can be converted into hot money, and the key is whether the economic and financial environment will cause money to move from investment to speculation and from speculation to flight. Fan Wuxi looked at the crowd and found that they were all listening carefully, it seemed that in this era.
People really don't understand this concept, although they are also studying economic and financial issues. However, this kind of hot money frenzy, which has just begun to show some signs and has not yet penetrated into China, has not been able to attract their full attention.
"I have some money." Fan Wuxi waved his hand. Said to the crowd.
"Huh?" The teachers present were a little surprised, and they didn't know what Fan Wuxian wanted to say. Fan Wuxian continued,
"I was also involved in the economic crisis in Japan back then, and the benefits were very considerable. It belongs to the category of hot money. ”
"Did you really experience the Japanese economic crisis of that year? How old were you then? Is it profitable? Someone immediately asked with concern.
"It's a lot of profit. Within a month, through financial leverage. You can make more than 10 times the amount of the principal, very easily. I'm at Fan's Investment Group in Shanghai. The registered capital is billions of US dollars, and most of the funds here are earned from Japan. Fan Wuxian did not answer the first two questions, but only answered the last of them.
"You're the boss of Fan's Investment Group?! It's the Fan's Investment Group that is building two 33-story buildings?! Someone immediately asked, apparently they were concerned about this international capital that quietly appeared on the beach in Shanghai.
"It's like a fake." Fan Wuxian shrugged his shoulders and replied. By this time, Fan Wuxian could no longer continue to keep too low-key, and he needed to enter the academic world and exert his influence in order to be able to make his own powerful voice out to the whole society.
Academia is a very sensitive place, and experts and scholars who are keen to talk in front of various media are obviously not willing to be lonely, and whether their remarks can be found flowers or bricks or boiled water depends on their personal style.
But overall, academia is definitely not high, and it can also be corrupted by money, and it is the most easily corroded part.
In addition to producing countless people, the academic atmosphere can also breed more academic scammers.
For example, Qin Shi Huang used the Han Fei doctrine of the Legalists to build momentum for his own expansion, Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty relied on Dong Zhongshu for Confucianism, Li Tang started to respect Lao Tzu, the ancestor of Taoism, and countless scholars proclaimed their orthodoxy after the Manchu Qing Dynasty entered the customs.
As for the kind of thing that advocates for the forces behind them in the economic field, many people are willing to do it, whether they are praised or scolded, as long as they make their voices heard, there will always be supporters, then his goal will be achieved, and the conflict of interests can make the academic community more prosperous.
Fan Wuxian doesn't mind winning over some people for himself in the academic world, even if it is not of great use now, but when it is needed, this is a miracle soldier that can be used.
As for the government, Fan Wuxian believes that there are too few people who understand the economy, and that the formulation of corresponding principles and policies, especially those in the economic field, basically requires relevant experts and scholars to provide advice and advice to them, so it is very beneficial for him to win over a considerable number of scholars.
Starting (5) 20.0 But in this way, the problem of hot money faded, and everyone's attention was focused on Fan Wuxian himself.
After some gossiping, Fan Wuxian enthusiastically invited the teachers,
"If you are interested, why don't you visit our company, and by the way, let's take a closer look at the international hot money sniping that Japan encountered before the outbreak of the economic crisis." Of course, everyone will not have any objections, they themselves are engaged in economic research, and there is naturally no harm in having this kind of opportunity to visit large companies, not to mention that the one who invited them was a student with a mysterious origin?
In fact, many of you have studied the problem of economic overheating, and since Deng Gong's southern tour last year, China's economy has once again entered a cycle of high-speed growth.
The good news is that the economy is showing a comprehensive recovery. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 1991 there were about 900 billion yuan of projects under construction nationwide, and by 1992 it had expanded to 2 trillion yuan, and in the first five months of this year, the country's investment in fixed assets had increased by 70 percent on the basis of the previous year, which was an unprecedented figure.
What worries us is that the super-rapid growth of investment is inducing a series of related effects; the general price index of the means of production in the country has risen by more than 40 percent, the financial order has also become somewhat disorderly, underground money banks are particularly active, the interest rates on non-governmental funds are getting higher and higher, and the official interest rates are virtually non-existent; if those who have the means to borrow money from the banks can change hands and release usury at an interest rate of 20 or even 30 percent.
It is against this backdrop that the central government is determined to deal with the Shen Taifu incident seriously, and in the eyes of the leaders, if the existence of Shen-style financing is connived, then financial regulation is impossible at all.
However, Fan Wuzhi also clearly knows that although the domestic economy is a little overheated, but because the economy has been in a trough for a long time, the brewing demand is very strong, just the current degree of openness into the domestic investment, but also can not stir this pool of deep water, now the domestic capital, basically as long as the investment will have a high return, there is no need to go in and out of the labor.
Therefore, the objects of international hot money are still those Southeast Asian countries that are highly open, but their own economic framework is not well constructed.
For them, Fan Wuxian has a lively mentality, whether it is Southeast Asia or Hong Kong, Fan Wuxian doesn't mind making a windfall there, although the scale of Soros and others' funds is very large, as much as tens of billions of dollars, but if Fan Wuxian concentrates, dozens of Soros are not his opponents.
It's just that there are some problems in this, Southeast Asian countries, Fan Wuxian can let go of the operation, but here in Hong Kong, unless he fights with Soros, the central government will definitely not let him make a fortune by his temperament.
However, this kind of thing is to follow the trend, if you do a few more doppelgangers, build a few overseas leather bag companies, hire some traders to operate, it is not impossible, after all, it is a capital feast, and it is indeed a bit unpleasant to participate in it without adding fuel to the fire.
After this side dispersed, Fan Wuxian left the small conference room, where the teachers were still chattering and discussing.
"No disease----" Someone is shouting Fan Wu's name again. Fan Wuxian looked back, but it was Tong Xiaoyun waiting for him.
The two haven't seen each other for a while, Tong Xiaoyun and they have been sketching in other places this semester, and Fan Wuxian has been in Beijing for a long time, and there is almost no chance of getting along.
After Fan Wuxian and Tong Xiaoyun saw each other, there were some different emotions in their eyes, as if sparks had burst out.