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In order to help his father Fan Heng build momentum, and contact contacts in Beijing, Fan Wuzhi ~ Beijing, held several high-end cocktail seminars, mainly on the topic of the current financial crisis, and held some charity activities by the way.

Because of Fan's action, although the Chinese government also expressed its support for the SAR government during the financial turmoil, the pressure it beared was much less, and it did not even provide foreign exchange reserve assistance to the SAR to maintain the stability of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, which was not expected at the beginning.

In this case, the interest groups headed by Solo are still creating public opinion, saying that the authorities of Chinese mainland and Hong Kong have violated the principle of free economic markets by manipulating the exchange rate, which is really shameless.

Affected by the financial crisis, the stock indexes of the United States and Hong Kong have fallen below historical records, and the crisis has also affected South Korea and Japan. Due to China's implementation of foreign exchange controls and a fixed exchange rate system, the renminbi is not a freely convertible currency, there is no selling pressure from the international financial market, and there are no objective conditions for a direct attack on the renminbi by international speculative capital.

It is worth mentioning that during the financial turmoil, both the United States and Japan wanted the yuan to depreciate. (Mobile AP browsing search 999)

While depreciation can bring new competitiveness to more than one-third of the country's export industries, it means that it will be more difficult for other Asian countries that compete with China, and the Asian consumer market is also an important part of China's foreign trade. Moreover, the depreciation of the renminbi is even more harmful to China, because the depreciation will slow down the inflow of foreign capital and intensify the outflow of foreign exchange, which will restrict the growth of China's economy, and will also directly affect the balance of payments, which may cause further depreciation of the renminbi and re-inflation in a vicious circle.

Therefore, Boss Zhu, who has been promoted to premier, publicly promised on behalf of the Chinese government that the renminbi is very strong and will not depreciate, which is also in China's long-term interests. The Chinese government's insistence on not depreciating the renminbi has, to a great extent, prevented international capital from radiating the crisis of the financial turmoil to the country, and stabilized the confidence of Asian countries.

At the end of October, Fan went to Beijing again to attend an economic seminar hosted by a senior executive to discuss the impact of the current financial crisis in Southeast Asia and to assist the senior management in formulating corresponding economic policies. (Download the latest and most complete e-book S/O/S/O/9/9/9/.COM)

Before the meeting, Fan Wuxian met with Boss Zhu, who had already been the prime minister.

If it was said that when Boss Zhu and other high-level officials had a dialogue with Fan Wuxian before, they were still very casual conversations between elders and juniors, then after Fan Wuxian helped the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to survive this melting storm, it was much more important.

After all, there is no second person like Fan Wuxian who can take tens of billions of dollars to help stabilize the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, even the local consortia in Hong Kong, who do not have the financial resources and the courage.

"I heard you've gained a lot in this melting storm?" Boss Zhu sat next to Fan Wuxian and asked casually.

Fan Wuxian nodded and said, "I'm not worried that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will lose all my money, and I won't be able to pay it back by then, so I must have to get back a little profit from the market."

”

Boss Zhu smiled, "It's not that simple, right?" I heard that you are + mussels fighting, and the fisherman profited, and copied Solo's back road, which made him in a dilemma on the Hang Seng Index, and returned home. ()”

Fan Wuxian smiled hesitantly, did not deny it, in fact, he pinched it very beautifully this time, and took advantage of the fact that Solo and others were entangled with the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate with the Monetary Authority, shorting the Hang Seng Index, which not only released the bearish energy, but also caught Solo and others off guard, so that not only did they not have much profit space on the Hang Seng Index, but also struggled in Hong Kong dollars, and they were worried that they would be trapped in the Hong Kong market and could not pull out, so they were forced to accept this failure.

"At the seminar later, you can also send us a reply." Boss Zhu suggested.

"It's okay to speak, in fact, I also have something I want to say, don't vomit or be unhappy, but can this grassroots seminar be kept confidential?" Fan Wuxian asked.

"No minutes, pure seminars, the participants are all high-level people, or our economic experts." Boss Zhu replied. (All overdrive updates:\. SOSO999\.COM)

Fan Wuxian nodded and agreed.

When they went to the venue, Fan Wuxian saw three circles of people around the round table, a total of more than 100 people, most of the Politburo Standing Committee members and members were present, and some were well-known economic experts in China, and there seemed to be an old professor who also had a burden.

It seems that the top management is paying more and more attention to economic issues, which is a thing.

After everyone arrived, the meeting began, and an expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences was analyzing the causes of the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia.

"In recent years, Western investment banks, especially those in the United States and Europe, have begun to establish a monopoly in financial services in Southeast Asia. Some analysts have pointed out that since 1991, India

, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand absorb the vast majority of the financial instruments issued by institutional investors from different countries in the six Southeast Asian economies. Institutional investors in the United States and Europe account for more than half of Southeast Asia's foreign capital. The economist, who is in his 60s, said eloquently, "There is also an important internal cause for the occurrence of the Asian financial turmoil, that is, the economic fragility formed by dependence on the US dollar, which has made Asian currencies a ghost under the US dollar's knife." In order to attract foreign investment, especially US dollar direct investment, Asian countries dominated by export-oriented economic development models have adopted a fixed exchange rate system to peg to the US dollar, so that foreign direct investment will not suffer exchange rate losses due to exchange rate fluctuations after the maturity of the investment. ”

Seeing that everyone was a little confused, he went on to explain, "For example, investors in US dollars lend at a fairly high interest rate, and when the loan matures, they can also exchange the local currency for dollars at a fixed exchange rate, and obtain a stable interest income. If the exchange rate falls, the local currency depreciates, then they will lose, and the size of the loss depends on the magnitude of the depreciation. In short, they are betting on the local government's ability to maintain a fixed exchange rate. Therefore, a fixed exchange rate is a necessary condition for attracting foreign investment. ”

At that time, in order to obtain more trade surpluses, Asian countries pegged to the US dollar at a lower exchange rate than their competitors, which was to gain a competitive advantage in export products by means of currency depreciation. China joined the ranks in the early nineties, when the renminbi depreciated from one dollar to two yuan before the exchange rate reform to eight and three yuan per dollar.

Under an exchange rate system pegged to the dollar, economies can take advantage of the dollar's depreciation.

However, there is also a huge risk that when the dollar appreciates, the currency pegged to the dollar will rise with it, and if its economy cannot support the appreciation of the exchange rate, or if it is strong, then it is artificially overvalued its currency.

In fact, in the international foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of the US dollar against major currencies changed from depreciation to appreciation in 1994. As the US dollar continues to appreciate sharply, the real effective exchange rate of major Southeast Asian currencies such as the Thai baht has strengthened along with the US dollar, weakening their export competitiveness, and the decline in exports has led to a rapid widening of the current account deficit.

The current account is the most important item of the country's revenue and expenditure, and if there is a current account deficit, you have to borrow money to get by. Generally, there are two ways to borrow, one is to depreciate the local currency, reduce the export cost of domestic goods, thereby increasing the export surplus, and use the trade surplus to make up for the current account deficit and achieve a balance of payments.

However, a fixed exchange rate is a necessary condition for attracting foreign capital, and it is a contradiction that the exchange rate must be free to float in order to reduce the exchange rate.

There is also a more direct way, that is, the government will attract more foreign capital inflow through various preferential policies and high-interest rate policies, and use the capital account surplus to make up for the current account deficit and achieve a balance of payments. The precondition for policy adjustment is that the capital market is open, that is, capital can flow in and out freely, and only when the inflow is greater than the outflow can there be a surplus under the capital account.

Under the pegging system, because the Thai baht exchange rate has been artificially fixed and has lost its function of adjusting the trade balance and the balance of payments, in the face of the widening current account deficit, the Thai government actually has only one choice, that is, to speed up the pace of opening up the capital market and attract more foreign capital inflows through various preferential policies and high interest rate policies.

The combination of the pegging system and the high interest rate policy has enabled speculative capital to achieve risk-free arbitrage, and at this time, foreign capital, especially hot money, has poured into Thailand in large quantities.

The massive inflow of capital is certainly not a bad thing, and if there is no way to lock in this capital and make it serve the economic growth of the region for a longer period of time, then the problem is serious, and the future capital is obviously more speculative capital.

"With short-term capital outflows, Thailand's economic growth has slowed down significantly. At this time, an expansionary monetary policy is needed to stimulate economic growth. However, in order to maintain a fixed exchange rate pegged to the US dollar, to prevent foreign capital outflows, and to curb asset price bubbles, the Bank of Thailand was forced to continue to implement a contractionary monetary policy, tighten monetary policy, and continue to raise interest rates. Last year, interest rates in Thailand reached 13.2500 points, the highest level among Asian countries and regions at that time. "In the face of such high interest rates, the pressure on the Thai government is obviously very high, and the country's economy is on the verge of collapse." ”

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