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The disparity in power between the two warring sides is huge, and the Iraq war is basically a war of suspense.

But. The impact of this war on the world economy is full of suspense.

As the war situation becomes clearer and clearer, the world's major economic organizations have recently predicted that the world economic growth rate will remain above 3 percent this year. It was the U.S. economy that was most affected by the war.

Because of the expected impact of the war on Iraq. The consumer confidence index has been greatly affected by Jing Liang, which is obviously very detrimental to the economic recovery, especially as international oil prices have begun to climb.

On this point, Fan Wuzhi can see it very clearly, and the economic response before the previous wars is almost the same, when the war clouds are thick. In other words, when the expectations of future wars are still unclear, international oil prices are generally going to rise. As the war situation becomes clearer after the start of the war, international oil prices will fall, and the U.S. stock market will begin to rebound, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate will continue to strengthen.

Therefore, in view of the current situation, Fan's Investment Group has also begun to make profits in the futures market and the stock market. If it works properly. Winning a billion dollars is not without a small supplement.

However, Fan Wuxian carefully observed the views of some mainstream media, and most of them believed that the war in Iraq would not last very long and would be beneficial to the world economy this year, but it should also be noted that the exhibition of different regions and countries will be even more uneven after the war.

The war has had the greatest positive impact on the U.S. economy, benefiting sectors such as the war-related arms industry, and Iraq's post-war reconstruction will bring a large number of orders to U.S. companies, and U.S. domestic investment and consumer confidence will be correspondingly enhanced. Britain, which actively participated in the war, would also have greater gains, while Russia, France, and Germany would have smaller war dividends. As a result, the war will lead to uneven economic growth in these countries.

War will not fundamentally resolve the inherent contradictions in the US economy, nor will it change the balance of economic power among the major powers.

There are also some people who think. There is no doubt that the United States will be able to win the war. But it will not necessarily win economic growth, because many of the problems facing the US economy will not be solved because of the Iraq war.

First. It is precisely because war cannot solve the problem of overproduction capacity in the new economy, and the economic decline in the United States in recent years stems from the overproduction capacity of the new economy, represented by the four industries, and although war will help digest the production capacity of the new economy to a certain extent, its effect is limited.

Second, the peak of the U.S. real estate industry is passing. Americans lost about $7 trillion after the stock market bubble burst, and the booming real estate sector in recent years has been the main driver of the U.S. economy. Through the appreciation of real estate, Americans are compensated for their losses in the stock market by 3 trillion to 4 trillion dollars.

But the most recent one. At that time, the vacancy rate in the United States was as high as 20 percent, and even a victory in the war did not increase the demand for real estate.

In addition, the export of many manufacturing industries other than the arms industry has been sluggish, and the economic recession in Europe and Japan has greatly affected the export of manufacturing in the United States. The war is unlikely to bring too many positive factors to the economic recovery of Europe and Japan, so the United States' manufacturing exports will not see the light of day in the short term.

Although the war will stimulate some industrial sectors in the United States, it is unclear how long this war boom will last. Due to the huge expenses of the war. The U.S. fiscal deficit and international current-account deficit have increased markedly. The negative impact of the twin deficits on the US economy should not be underestimated.

Will the US dollar remain strong? How much has oil prices fallen? Will OPEC limit production and protect prices? These are all unknowns.

At this time, Iraq's oil exports had a limited impact on world oil prices, and the fluctuations in oil prices were mainly caused by international capital speculation and people's psychological panic. But once the Americans won. Iraq's post-war reconstruction requires a large amount of oil to be exported, and the export volume is naturally not the same as when the United Nations oil-for-food program was implemented. With the end of the war and Iraq's increase in oil exports, a decline in world oil prices is inevitable, which will be conducive to world economic growth. But. For each specific country. Again, the situation is very different.

The oil companies of the United States and Britain control 70 percent of the oil resources of the Arab countries, and the victory in the Iraq war will further consolidate their position, and the oil sources of the two countries will be more secure, and for France, Germany, Japan, and the vast number of developing countries, the oil sources may become more and more constrained by the United States and Britain. Energy security has the potential to become a new source of insecurity.

The Russian economy is in the process of recovery, and the rise in international oil prices will be an important driving force for Russia's economic recovery. And once the war in Iraq ends, the fall in oil prices will have a significant impact on Russia's economy.

One of the bases of the Russian Federation's budget this year is to maintain the price of crude oil at around $25 per barrel, and if the price of oil falls below $20 per barrel, Russia's budget plan for this year will be frustrated, and Putin will feel a big headache.

Experts also believe that the Iraqi war... The influence of Ertan is to make the economy ball-oriented, and the global anti-globalization wave is rapidly unfolding. The United States' unilateralism and intention to abandon the United Nations to launch a war against Iraq have provoked a global wave of anti-war sentiment, which is bound to continue after the war. Become a force for anti-globalization.

In the past 20 years, with the rapid economic growth of Asia, especially in East Asia, the economic relations between the United States and Asian countries have developed rapidly. By last year, the United States had a deficit of $500 billion in the international current account, of which more than $200 billion was incurred in Asia.

According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, at the end of last year, the world's foreign exchange reserves totaled more than $2.3 trillion, and about six of them were owned by Asian countries, and most of the foreign exchange reserves of Asian countries were invested in various bonds and stock markets of the United States.

It can be said that it is the Asian countries that support the strong position of the dollar. At the same time, the arc from the Middle East and Central Asia to South Asia and East Asia has become a problem area that has attracted the attention of the United States in recent years due to constant conflicts and complex situations. Therefore. After the war in Iraq. The United States is bound to further strengthen its ties with Asian countries in the political, military, and economic fields.

It is foreseeable that the impact of the war in Iraq on the world economy will go far beyond whether or not it stimulates economic growth. Although from the point of view of stimulating economic growth in the United States, the military spending and post-war reconstruction of Iraq brought about by this war is a stimulus.

But the war would be a major trauma to Iraq and the Middle East. How many years of wealth created have been destroyed. It is also a destruction of human wealth and a destruction of human exhibition. From the perspective of American taxpayers, a large amount of tax revenue that could have been used to increase social welfare and promote civilian science and technology exhibitions is spent on arms that cannot be consumed by people, which is itself a huge waste.

Of course, the domestic economy is not the only factor affecting the expected war in Iraq.

Due to the epidemic, a series of market development, business exchanges and other activities planned by many local governments have been significantly affected. The annual investment promotion activities have been affected, and some have been postponed. Compared with the same period, the turnover has dropped by almost 80% compared with the previous session, and due to the epidemic in China, although the mainland government has been emphasizing that it has nothing to do with it, and the impact is minimal, but the international reaction has been obvious, for example, a branch of Fan's Investment Group organized a delegation to participate in business activities in Vladimir, Russia, but also could not make the trip because of difficulties in applying for visas, and the Philippine Commodity Exhibition, which was planned to be held in March, was also postponed to August.

Affected by this. Most of the light industry, craft and summer cloth, manganese cloth and other woven products are sold according to the samples, and the orders have decreased significantly, the number of new customers for motorcycle products has decreased, and the export orders for agricultural products such as frozen pork have decreased significantly.

Meanwhile. Neighboring countries began to respond to the domestic epidemic, and the logistics of import and export goods were affected. Myanmar has suspended China-Myanmar border trade activities, the Xinjiang section of the China-Mongolia border and the China-Pakistan Khunjerab port have been suspended, and Lithuania has banned the import of animal-derived food and animals, raw materials, feed, feed additives, etc. from China, Thailand and Vietnam.

At present, some companies under the company have also reported that the governments or importers of Spain, the United Kingdom and other countries require domestic enterprises to issue certificates of no ** virus for export goods. Some importers in the United Kingdom and France have also put forward the requirements for China's inspection and fatigue inspection agencies to issue first-class disinfection certificates for exported clothing, rubber, cartons and other products, which have increased the export costs of enterprises.

In view of the obstruction of face-to-face business activities, the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Commission proposed to vigorously develop business and maintain normal trade order as much as possible.

Under this leading idea, the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Commission recommended a number of online trade websites to key enterprises, including the e-commerce platform built by Fan's Investment Group. At the same time, after holding talks with responsible persons of the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Commission, Fan Wuzhi agreed to provide free support for the production of three-dimensional advertisements on the website of the Fan Investment Group and the distribution of business and trade information on the website platform of the Fan Investment Group, and to establish a trade bridge for various enterprises on the e-commerce platform of the Fan Investment Group to provide the latest financial, insurance, and other information services.

After receiving the vigorous support of Fan Wuji, the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Commission has also begun to step up the construction of a database of import and export commodities, with special funds provided by the central government to speed up the trial operation of the port logistics network and build a platform for enterprises to negotiate and trade on the Internet.

At the same time, the central government has also indicated that it will provide a three-month online training course on e-commerce for all foreign economic and trade enterprises, and carry out online tutoring and Q&A. In order to improve the application ability of enterprise e-commerce.

All in all. Although ** has not officially entered the high-level topic, in fact, some work has already begun to be started, especially the Fan Investment Group has begun to prepare for the arrival of the epidemic. All kinds of preparations were made. There are no pop-ups