Even Executive Vice Governor Xu Shengjiao, although he also met a core figure of the Chen family, he only met and had a meal, and did not talk about any substantive projects, and Bao Feiyang was just a department-level cadre.

Gao Jingliang didn't entangle with Bu Guangguang, Luo Jianzhong and others anymore, he hurriedly walked over and reported to Han Qiwen, although Han Qiwen was dissatisfied with Bao Feiyang, but in front of the results, he naturally knew what was most important.

Originally, the matter was not clear, and Han Qiwen didn't know much about the situation, so he shouldn't be in a hurry to report to the top, but Gao Jingliang said that this matter had already been known to others, and Han Qiwen still found an opportunity to report to Xu Shengjiao.

Hearing the news, Xu Shengjiao was slightly stunned, and soon said with a smile: "This bag is flying, it always has to surprise people." ”

"Mr. Bao, you mean that Southeast Asia's economy may have a systemic crisis or even a major collapse in the near future?"

In a palatial luxury box in a five-star hotel in Malaysia, there sits a middle-aged man who looks wise and has a bit of Confucian business style, and he is Chen Yongzhi, the head of Malaysia's Dingfeng Group. Listening to Bao Feiyang's words, he frowned, looked at Bao Feiyang sitting opposite him with deep eyes, and didn't believe it in his heart, at this time, the Southeast Asian business circle was prosperous and was in the heyday of rapid development, according to Bao Feiyang, the entire Southeast Asian financial economy is likely to face a big collapse, which is too alarmist. After pondering the words for a while, Chen Yongzhi asked rhetorically.

"Yes, I think the financial system in Southeast Asia is likely to collapse, both internally and externally, and the situation in Southeast Asia is very similar to Mexico in 1993." Bao Feiyang keenly caught the suspicious signal in Chen Yongzhi's words, but he still nodded calmly without changing his face, originally in his plan, he did not plan to mention the potential economic crisis in Southeast Asia in front of Chen Yongzhi so soon. Unexpectedly, when Chen Yajun expressed his relevant doubts, he directly singled out this problem.

For the future trend of Southeast Asian economy, Bao Feiyang let Fangxia Ceramics Group in the layout at the same time, but also with their own friendly business partners have had an analysis of the situation in this regard, including not only the old partners who initially cooperated with their own business in the field of the Tang family of Mexico, but also included the Javanese Huang family in the later Southeast Asian business cooperation gradually deepened. And Huang Chengcheng and Chen Yajun, who are both wealthy businessmen and celebrities in Southeast Asian business circles, are close friends in private, these two girls who have been playing together since childhood and are about the same age often get their heads together when they are fine, I don't know what to talk about, it seems that she and Chen Yajun have talked about this issue, of course, as friends, it is understandable to remind them of their concern to recover the huge losses they may face in the future, and it is impossible for Bao Feiyang to blame Huang Chengcheng for leaking any trade secrets. And the Chen family is likely to become another new partner in Southeast Asia in the near future, and in this respect, they are also their own people. Naturally, there is nothing to hide.

Since Chen Yajun has now asked bluntly on the spot in front of Chen Yongzhi and Bao Feiyang, Bao Feiyang naturally can't continue to hide it, but very frankly said to Chen Yongzhi, the current head of Dingfeng, who was sitting opposite him with a frown frowning and thinking: "Mr. Chen is an expert, the Chen family, including most of the Chinese businessmen, started from industry, and industry is the foundation for a family and a country to pass on, but now the economic environment is different, and the flow of international capital is becoming more and more rapid. The scale is getting bigger and more pervasive, including the Chen family. Many Chinese businessmen have also been involved in the financial industry. ”

"Financial markets are turbulent, and big ups and downs are inevitable. Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, have relatively little regulation of financial markets, and the liberalization process is relatively high. This is an advantage that allows for more flexible use of international capital to attract foreign investment, but it also brings some risks. For example, market volatility caused by large inflows and large outflows. ”

Chen Yongzhi lowered his head, gently tapped the table with the knuckles of his fingers, and said with a slight mutter: "The situation in Malaysia is different from Mexico, when the financial crisis in Mexico was largely due to the instability of the domestic political situation. And the Mexican government's hasty currency reform, I don't think the Malaysian government will do that, and our domestic political situation is relatively stable, and the intervention in the exchange rate is not so strict. ”

Bao Feiyang smiled, knowing that Chen Yongzhi, the head of the huge business empire who sat in front of him and had always had his own ideas and courage, was still skeptical, and he still did not believe in his analysis of the future situation in Southeast Asia. He knew that it would not be easy to persuade such a shrewd and wise group that had experienced countless storms and waves, and whose experience and insight were different from others, but he followed the other party's train of thought and further analyzed: "The currency reform of the Mexican government is only the fuse, and the reason for the reform is that they saw that the currency was overvalued at that time, so they hoped to take the initiative to depreciate the currency to alleviate the problems of their own economy." And the overvaluation of the currency is obviously a common problem in your country and some other countries in Southeast Asia. ”

There is a famous "flying geese pattern" in the development of Asian economy, the so-called "flying geese mode", that is, the first to develop Japan is the leader of the wild goose array, after the development of Japan, its primary industry began to gradually transfer to the surrounding countries in a gradient, Singapore, Taihu, Xingang, Xinhan and other "four tigers" countries and regions in a similar way to develop in turn, and then they will further develop themselves, and then have a relatively disadvantaged industry to transfer to neighboring countries, thus driving Siam, Java, Malaysia, the Philippines and other four tiger countries, like a wild goose array, passed down one level at a time. This development model has indeed played a positive and important role in promoting the economic growth of East Asia, and has also become a world economic growth point for a time.

But it is precisely because of this that the economic structure and model of Southeast Asian countries are very similar, and the problems of the existence of zài are also very similar, among which the overvaluation of the currency is also the inevitable problem of universal zài that they face.

Chen Yongzhi was silent for a while after hearing Bao Feiyang's explanation, Malaysia is the same as Java and other countries. They are all pegged to the US dollar with the national standard currency, and a fixed exchange rate system relative to the US dollar has always been implemented in the financial market, or the range of fluctuations is very limited. It is precisely because the US dollar has always been strong in the international financial market that this local currency peg to the US dollar is conducive to strengthening the confidence of domestic investors and attracting foreign investment.

This exchange rate system feels more reliable and trustworthy. At the same time, however, it should be noted that this exchange rate system is in essence unable to reflect the real situation of the domestic and international economy; since the mid-90s, the United States has relied on the development of the science and technology industry, and its economic growth momentum has been extremely strong, and the dollar has been appreciating in the international financial market, and the appreciation of the US dollar has also led to the corresponding appreciation of the currencies of the Southeast Asian countries that are pegged to the US dollar, and the appreciation of their own currencies has caused the prices of their products exported from home to abroad to increase accordingly. This will eventually lead to the loss of initial competitiveness in the price-sensitive international market.

In the economic model of the wild goose, these countries undertake industrial transfer from the front end of the wild goose array. Catching up and the countries behind will take on their industrial transfers, but this is the ideal situation. The reality is that those countries that are ahead of the wild goose array will certainly have to work hard to maintain their own industrial advantages, except for those relatively inferior industries that are polluting, energy-intensive, and labor-intensive, and under the premise of concentrating on the development of their own economy, it is impossible to harm others and take the initiative to transfer their own advantageous industries. Let the countries behind quickly achieve industrial upgrading.

And the countries behind are naturally not willing to be left behind all the time, and will try to catch up. Instead of passively waiting for the countries in front to take the initiative to transfer their own industries. Especially in recent years, China has actually joined this wild goose array, and the energy of this behemoth is very huge in the entire international market, compared with those Southeast Asian countries that are relatively developed in terms of economic development but their overall scale is much smaller than their own, they undoubtedly have incomparable advantages in terms of human resources, land, market, and resources.

Therefore, when these Southeast Asian countries have suffered from the appreciation of the US dollar, which leads to a chain reaction of the appreciation of their national currencies, the prices of products produced by their own countries have lost their original competitiveness in the international market, including Huaxia. Other countries are also scrambling to grab this market, which further affects the export of these countries.

Siam, Java, Malaysia and other countries have had huge deficits in the current account in recent years, that is, non-debt and investment balance of payments items, including trade and labor payments. The reason for the deficit is the deficit in import and export trade.

If you don't use technical economic jargon. Rather, to put it more plainly, these countries have to spend more money on other countries' products.

In the international market, foreign exchange is used for transactions, and the national currencies issued by these countries are not recognized in the international market, because these currencies themselves have no value, so they need to find other ways to obtain foreign exchange that can be circulated in international transactions.

Judging from the current situation in Southeast Asia as a whole, the foreign exchange receipts and expenditures of various countries are still relatively balanced, and the foreign exchange reserves are relatively stable, except for the current account deficit, there is a surplus in the capital account, which means that they are now facing the grim reality that they need to use the capital account surplus to make up for the current account deficit.

There are two main types of capital account items, investment and borrowing.

It's like a person, when the income he can get from the outside is not enough to cover his external expenses, he can borrow money from friends, from the bank, or ask friends to contribute money, and share an online platform with himself. In terms of financial nature, the former is borrowing, and the latter is investment.

However, unlike trade income, these money are not actually their own money, and they can be withdrawn at any time. So although the overall financial books of these countries seem to be relatively balanced, and sometimes there may even be a slight surplus, the current account deficit means that their foreign exchange wealth is actually decreasing.

This was also the case in Mexico before the financial crisis that was known to the world.

This situation is often very dangerous, and once there is a large-scale outflow of these foreign capital for some special reason, the foreign exchange payment capacity of this country that is declining will become very strained, or even lose the ability to pay.

Theoretically, there are no foreign exchange reserves. There is no way to import, in fact, once this happens, there is no need to put a beak, it will definitely trigger a series of chain reactions, first of all, it will immediately cause a large-scale panic, especially for those external capital. They want a strong dollar that can be exchanged for any country's currency at any time, and this kind of Malay currency, which cannot be freely circulated in the international financial market, is like a piece of waste paper for them, of course, when the external situation was stable in the past, they can calmly invest in Malaysia today, and then exchange the Malay currency they earn in their hands into US dollars when they reap the investment income in the future.

However, once they see that Malaysia has problems and the foreign exchange reserves are insufficient, there may be no way to redeem the US dollars, and they will worry that the Malay dollars they have earned through their hard work will become a pile of useless waste paper in the future, and then these foreign investment businessmen will rush to convert the Malay dollars they hold into US dollars.

These dollars are coming in at the time. They were converted into Malay, but they could be used to cover the current account deficit or to make foreign investments, which means that at this point the initial investment had already been spent in US dollars, so the government would not have sufficient foreign exchange reserves to cover these payments.

And if such a panic happens, it will not only be the dollars that came in and want to withdraw, but also the people in their own country, especially some wealthy people with a certain amount of assets. I don't want my own national currency funds to become a bunch of bubbles and dissipate with the wind, and I definitely want to exchange my money for more stable US dollars. Panic triggers a run, a run exacerbates panic, and the government's pocketbook, which is already insufficient in foreign exchange reserves, is even more inadequate in the face of such sharp payments, creating an irreversible vicious circle in the country's financial system.

"I think Malaysia's economy is generally good, although there is a deficit in the current account, but the scale of the deficit is not large. There are some problems in the economy, and the government is already making adjustments. Chen Yongzhi pondered for a moment and said, in fact, similar problems exist in many countries, if this will lead to a financial crisis, then most countries will have problems.

In Chen Yongzhi's view. Although according to some situations and the analysis of the numbers, there is still a possibility of economic problems in Southeast Asian countries in the near future, but the possibility of a real large-scale financial crisis is not large, it may only be a decline in economic growth, rising inflation, etc., so for a period of time, Dingfeng Group in the Southeast Asian economic business circle is also looking for some opportunities for foreign investment to diversify the risks that may be faced. And the assessment of the size of the risk obviously influences the decisions they take later in development.

Bao Feiyang nodded, Chen Yongzhi's analysis of some things is still relatively in place and accurate, he continued to say to Chen Yongzhi: "Southeast Asian countries, especially Malaysia's economic foundation is basically sound, compared with Mexico, your budget deficit is not high, the national debt is not much, although the inflation rate is not low, but basically only a single digit, more importantly, the economic growth rate is fast, the savings rate is high, and the investment rate is also high. ”

"However, we should also see that the most direct cause of the outbreak of the financial crisis, or the most direct cause of large-scale capital outflows, no matter what the cause is, we can attribute it to a change in expectations, any reason, is a change in expectations, and a change in expectations will directly affect people's decision to make a run."

"And the change in expectations can be a very small reason." Bao Feiyang paused, looked at Chen Yongzhi opposite with those bright eyes and said.

There is a great panic theory in the field of economics, which analyzes the financial crises and believes that the occurrence of financial crises is of course related to some weaknesses of the economy, such as the increase in the current account deficit, the decline of foreign exchange reserves, the fragility of the financial system, the large number of borrowing-in companies, the overvaluation of the real exchange rate, and so on. But these weaknesses do not necessarily lead to a financial crisis, or they are not sufficient to explain the suddenness and depth of the financial crisis.

"And the change in expectations, or panic, can spread very quickly, so although the current situation in Malaysia is not bad, some of the surrounding countries are not so good." Bao Feiyang said.

"Perhaps, you're right, but we can't make too big changes to the established decisions because there may be hidden dangers." Chen Yongzhi put his hand on the black-framed glasses on the bridge of his nose, and said in a deep voice: "As for the surrounding countries, I don't know who you are referring to, Mr. Bao." (To be continued......)