Chapter 488: A Great Opportunity Not to Be Missed
"Zhenjiang, you didn't mean going to the south to engage in real estate, right?" A person who thought he had guessed Sun Zhenjiang's mind asked loudly.
"Yes, I heard that it is really profitable to engage in real estate in the south now, I have two buddies who went to find the local government to approve money, and use a bulldozer to push it, even if it is a mature land, it will be tens of millions as soon as it changes hands, which is faster than printing money." The others chimed in.
Sun Zhenjiang smiled slightly and said, "The little money in real estate is also worth thinking about our buddies?" However, after this ticket is finished, everyone has extra money in their hands, and if they want to play real estate, they can also go to play. Although the money comes slowly, it is better for a long time, and there is a play for ten or twenty years, unlike the one we are playing now, which is a hammer deal, and if you miss this village, there will be no such store. ”
"Real estate is all small money?" Everyone smacked their tongues, "Zhenjiang, tell me quickly, what kind of deal is it?" ”
Sun Zhenjiang sold enough, and then said leisurely: "I got an inside news, the above has decided to open up the unified purchase and sale of means of production, from January 1 next year, steel, cement, flat glass no longer need to be allocated to the planned indicators, and at the same time, the planned price is no longer restricted." ”
"Uh......"
Hearing Sun Zhenjiang say this, everyone was deflated all of a sudden. What does this have to do with them? Some of them started a few years ago by reselling the materials in the plan, but in the past two years, the rumors have been too tight, and this kind of business is no longer good. Now that the state wants to completely cancel the planned supply of production materials, it will not have much impact on them, let alone find any business opportunities from them.
Sun Zhenjiang had already expected everyone's reaction, he pointed at Pittston with his finger and said, "This question." Let Mr. Pittston explain. ”
"I'll explain it to you." Pittston spoke, his Chinese sounding a little strange, with a thick Virginia accent, but the grammar and phrasing were still accurate enough, presumably at the level of Chinese level 6:
"China's price system for the means of production is strictly distorted. The planned price deviates significantly from the true market price. Prices on the black market are significantly higher due to lack of supply. Once the Chinese government deremoves program controls on the means of production, two scenarios will emerge:
First, a large number of enterprises that were unable to obtain the means of production will be able to get sufficient supply in the market, and after their demand is released, the original balance between supply and demand will be broken, and there will be a strict shortage of supply.
Second, the prices of the means of production will rise sharply from the existing planned prices as a result of the phenomenon of short supply. All the way up to a level high enough for excess demand to disappear. According to our calculations, this level will be more than double the existing planned price, and slightly lower than the current black market price in the Chinese market. ”
"Well, that's right." Everyone nodded yes, but there was no sudden feeling in their hearts. There may be some complex economic principles behind what Pittston said, maybe there are some mathematical models and so on, but for these businessmen who have done material business. Instinct can also guess, no need for Pittston to give them popular science.
"Our plan is. Before the price of materials reaches a stable point, eat a large amount of materials, and wait until the price rises to a sufficient price before throwing out. With this in and out, we can easily earn a lot of money. This time, the supplies released from above included steel, cement and glass. Let's not be too greedy, take down the steel market, it's enough for us to play. Sun Zhenjiang added.
"Zhenjiang, aren't you just hoarding goods? This can be played, but it is necessary to say that one person can earn 1 billion. I'm afraid it's not easy, right? A businessman named Ling Yiping questioned.
Ling Yiping himself did the business of hoarding Juqi, but in the past, he did it in the field of consumer goods. In the past, when the market prices of young industrial products soared, Ling Yiping bought low and sold high, and poured out a lot of televisions, video recorders, and other goods, and also made some money.
He knows that hoarding is a matter of profit, but it is also risky. If the market price rises at a slower than expected rate, then the loss of interest and storage costs caused by stockpiling is also considerable. Especially when many people are in the hoarding business, you also have to take into account the price drop that will occur when you ship collectively, and if you don't play well, you may lose money.
Faced with the opportunity to liberalize the prices of means of production, it should be a bit of a profit to stock up on some goods and throw them out when the price is high, but when it comes to making everyone here earn no less than 1 billion, I'm afraid it's sensational, right?
Sun Zhenjiang laughed and said, "Everyone thinks the same way, right? Such a good opportunity can be said to be unprecedented, if we just get some soup to drink, we will regret it for the rest of our lives. Sue everyone, let's not just stock up on goods this time, we have to take the initiative to speculate the price, and when the speculation reaches the highest point, we will suddenly withdraw, do you understand? Well, I'll let Mr. Pittston talk about it. ”
Pittston was already ready, he took out a stack of materials, and while flipping through them, he introduced to everyone:
"According to the statistics of our fund research department, the current annual output of finished steel in China is 65 million tons, plus about 5 million tons of imported steel, the total supply of the market is 70 million tons, and the supply and demand are generally balanced.
If the Chinese government loosens its restrictions, the price of black market steel will fall from the current 5,000 yuan per tonne to around 2,500 yuan, and the overall market demand will rise to 90 million to 100 million tonnes. As the gap between supply and demand is as high as 20 million tons, the market price of steel will continue to rise, estimated at about 3,200 yuan, which can re-achieve the balance between supply and demand.
Our fund and Mr. Sun's plan is to eat 10 million tons of steel at a price of 2,500 yuan. As the market supply has decreased by 10 million tons, the contradiction between supply and demand will be stricter, so that the price of steel can rise to about 3,800 yuan in one fell swoop. In this position, we will throw out the steel again, and strive to clear the inventory before the price drops to 3,500 yuan.
Calculated in this way, the gross profit we obtained through the purchase and sale price difference in the steel market is about 100 to 12 billion yuan, deducting capital costs and storage costs, and subtracting part of the marketing costs, the final net profit should be between 8 billion and 10 billion yuan. ”
......The people in the room gasped, this trick was really too big. Some of the people here have also played the matter of speculating on goods, but the biggest restriction is to speculate within the scope of one or two provinces, and it is not this kind of strategic material. According to Pittston's plan, everyone wants to speculate on the price of the entire steel market at the national level, and then profit from it. If this vote is done, it may be an exaggeration to earn 1 billion per person, but it is still possible to get a profit of three or five billion.
However, high profits also mean high risk, in case the speculation fails, the price of steel does not rise to such a high level of 3,800 yuan as expected, then everyone will be trapped. According to the price of 2,500 yuan per ton, hoarding 10 million tons of steel requires an investment of 25 billion yuan, and the annual interest is more than one billion, and this cost should not be underestimated.
"Zhenjiang, this plan is quite tempting, but if we don't fry the price, or it takes too long, it will be a bit troublesome." Ling Yiping said.
Sun Zhenjiang said confidently: "Yiping, don't worry, the experts of the Jiezi Fund have considered these problems. This time, the Jie Zi Fund is also ready to invest 10 billion yuan, do you think the Americans will make a loss-making transaction? People play the trick of the white wolf with empty gloves, they are much stronger than us, we just follow others to get rich, what's so scary? ”
"Zhenjiang, just now Mr. Pittston said that there is a steel gap of 20 million tons, what if the country asks those steel mills to increase production? Also, the price is high, and the turtles below don't need so much steel, won't this gap be filled? Another businessman, Guo Kaining, also raised a question.
Sun Zhenjiang did not answer, and gave the opportunity to explain to Pittston. Pittston coughed and said to the crowd:
"We've analysed the capacity reserves of Chinese steel mills, and they can add up to another 5 million tonnes of output, and it's not right away. It will take some time for China's iron ore and coal supply to increase and then convert into steel production capacity, which will take enough time for us to operate. In terms of imports, the Chinese government is currently able to raise limited foreign exchange funds, which determines that its import volume is unlikely to increase significantly.
As for demand, 80% of the demand in China's steel market is rigid demand, and no matter how high the price is, they must purchase. In addition, we have not yet taken into account the new demand brought about by the development of the real estate industry in the south, because it is not yet possible to predict the speed of real estate development. If the real estate industry in the South grows fast enough, then we expect the supply-demand gap to widen further. ”
"I see." The eyes that everyone looked at Pittston began to burn. If we don't say that Americans are capable, we can think of things that people have already thought of, and what calculations have been made. Those of us who stay in China every day don't know how many steel plants there are in China, but Americans can do it, and that's a great feat.
How can you lose money if you do business with someone with such skills?
Thinking of this, everyone's mind comes alive, and they are desperately calculating in their minds the amount of money they can raise. This is an opportunity with profits of up to 10 billion yuan, and the more you invest, the greater the benefits. As Sun Zhenjiang said, if you miss it this time, you will really regret it for the rest of your life. (To be continued......)