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"To open a bank in Russia? How did you come up with such a thing? After listening to Ye Kai's words, Chu Yunsong really showed a puzzled expression. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info

Russia, as a union republic that has inherited the greatest legacy of the former Soviet Union, is naturally the most powerful of all the union republics, although there is now a so-called CIS, but in the eyes of everyone, only Russia can be regarded as a real power.

The only major country that inherited 76% of the land area and 50% of the population of the Soviet Union, Russia can be regarded as the first successor of the Soviet Union, and the most important thing is that Russia has also inherited the nuclear strike force of the Soviet Union, the most powerful armament.

At the same time, Russia also assumed significant responsibility for the continuation of the Soviet ruble.

Speaking of the ruble, it has a history of nearly 70 years, and in 1924, the Soviet Union carried out its first currency reform after the alliance. In January 1961, the currency reform was again introduced and a new ruble was issued. The gold content was set at 0.987412 grams, and the exchange rate against the dollar was determined at 0.9 rubles per dollar.

For nearly 30 years since then, the exchange rate has basically remained at this level without much change.

On April 24, 1985, the Central Committee of the CPSU convened a plenum at which it was decided that "the country is already on the verge of crisis and must carry out fundamental changes and transformations."

Under the leadership of Gorbachev, after two years of planning, the Soviet Union began a series of political and economic reforms. The strategy of "accelerating economic development" was proposed, but it backfired. Due to the shortage of food supplies caused by the postponement of the agrarian reform, the postponement of the reform of the ownership system affected the enthusiasm of the reform, and the process of disintegration of the Soviet Union was accelerated after various reform programs.

As the former Soviet Union was on the verge of disintegration, on November 1, 1990, the official exchange rate of the ruble depreciated sharply for the first time in 30 years, from 0.6 rubles per dollar to 1.80 rubles per dollar.

And now, after the complete collapse of the Soviet Union, the official exchange rate of the ruble has dropped to 1 dollar to 2 rubles.

It can be said that in just this year, the ruble has lost more than three times!

In such a situation. With the prospects of the ruble uncertain, how could Chu Yunsong think of opening a bank in Russia? It's just a good investment. At most, it's a waste. But when you open a bank, it's really a bottomless pit. How much money is invested in it. It's not enough to pay.

Once the environment deteriorates in Russia, then the collapse of banks will only happen overnight.

"I really don't have the guts to do that, and in the eyes of Russians, the Chinese may not be so popular." Chu Yunsong shook his head, and finally declined Ye Kai's suggestion.

Ye Kai knew that if he wanted to move Chu Yunsong, he must show a little sincerity, and he must also show a little insight, otherwise how could he convince him. You must know that Chu Yunsong is also known as the most discerning financial expert in China, and has assisted the high-level in formulating many financial policies, and he will definitely not be able to be impressed in a few words.

Especially since he is still Ye Kai's quasi-father-in-law, he has an advantage in identity.

What Chu Yunsong is most worried about is the Russian ruble, which cannot be persevered, if he enters the Russian financial system at this time, then the probability of sinking into the sand is very high.

"What if I say it's a really good opportunity to make money?" Ye Kai pondered for a moment, and then asked Chu Yunsong.

"I can't take the state's money to bet on whether what you say is true or not." Chu Yunsong replied very simply.

Ye Kai nodded, understanding that Chu Yunsong's decision was actually very normal, as the head of a large commercial bank, Chu Yunsong's influence and control over the Construction and Development Bank were unprecedented, and he also took great political risks.

After all, as a relatively simple commercial bank, the Construction and Development Bank is of great significance to the construction projects in the provinces south of the Yangtze River, and it is impossible for Chu Yunsong to take great risks to participate in the affairs of a Russia where the situation is uncertain.

As Chu Yunsong said, he can't risk the state's money.

But without the participation of the bank, it is difficult for Ye Kai to profit from the depreciation of the ruble, he is really not very good at finance, although he knows some fur, but he has not carefully studied these things, so he was silent for a while, and after a while, Ye Kai asked, "Uncle Chu, if I judge that the ruble will depreciate significantly in the next two years, then what means can I use to get the most benefit from this incident?" ”

"Oh, are you sure that the ruble will depreciate significantly?" Chu Yunsong was stunned when he heard this.

To be honest, there are no signs of a sharp depreciation of the ruble.

The economic performance of the Soviet Union in the past two years can be said to be terrible, and after the disintegration, it has only depreciated more than three times, and now most analysts believe that the depreciation of the ruble should be to the end.

With the ascension of Russian President Boris Yeltsin, this seemingly resolute and sharp-minded leader should be able to quickly turn around Russia's economic situation and put the economy on the right track by virtue of his close relationship with Western politicians, so everyone believes that the ruble will gradually stabilize and return to a more rational exchange rate.

At this time, Ye Kai actually put forward the idea that the ruble would depreciate sharply in the next two years, which was obviously contrary to the ideas of mainstream analysts, so Chu Yunsong was very curious about his thoughts.

Yes, Chu Yunsong admires Ye Kai more, but he will never listen to anything Ye Kai says, in that case, Chu Yunsong will not be an economist, a financier and a banker, but a completely brainless.

Of course, this did not prevent Chu Yunsong from understanding Ye Kai's thoughts and seeing if what he said made sense?

As a qualified scholar, he is still very clear about the principle of listening to others, and it is not without benefit to listen to others, and Ye Kai himself is also a young man who has created many miracles.

"Yes, I can conclude that the ruble will fall sharply in two years, to a miserable level." Ye Kai said very clearly, "Do you remember how ruined the economy was before the defeat of Lao Jiang and his departure from Taiwan Island? The situation in Russia will not be better than the situation in his time. ”

"How is that possible?!" Chu Yunsong listened, and really couldn't believe it.

At that time, Lao Chiang was defeated and left Taiwan Island, and the mainland's economy had indeed been collapsed by him, and inflation had reached an incredible level, and he could still buy a meal in the morning, but he could only buy one or two meters in the evening, and it can be said that the banknotes had already depreciated by half as soon as they were taken home.

No matter how bad the situation in Russia is, there is also the foundation laid by the powerful Soviet Union back then, so it will not be hollowed out, right? If you want to deal with the current economic crisis and survive until Russia re-emerges, it should be no problem.

"I heard that Russian President Boris Yeltsin, in order to cope with the current economic crisis, is already planning to carry out monetary system reform." Ye Kai threw out another major piece of news, which surprised Chu Yunsong.

As an economist, Chu Yunsong is naturally well aware that any reform of the monetary system is an unfair redistribution of wealth.

The free market economy is a very moving sounding word, and Russian President Boris Yeltsin is a man who resolutely adheres to this principle, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he began to reform the market economy, and under his resolute insistence, the privatization of state-owned enterprises without plans and standards began to gradually spread.

Under seemingly fair conditions, the original state-owned enterprises in the Soviet Union were divided equally among everyone, and according to relevant data, each Soviet citizen at that time was probably allocated about 100,000 to 150,000 rubles of state-owned assets, of course, in the form of shareholding reform and securitization of state-owned enterprises.

100,000 to 150,000 rubles is a lot of money under the current conditions, about 50,000 to 75,000 dollars.

But when the Soviet people collectively went on a carnival, they forgot one thing, and that was that all they got was securitized wealth on their books, and what was even more terrible was that these securities were denominated in Soviet rubles.

In parallel with the reform of state-owned enterprises and the exchange rate, the Soviet Union began a disorderly financial opening.

Internationally renowned investment banks, commercial banks, and insurance institutions began to flock in, and their business outlets and institutions sprung up in the Soviet Union and all parts of Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Modern management, private banking services, international standard settlement, fragrant coffee, high-end business premises and charming smiles, everything looks so good.

Through a set of marketing methods honed in the markets of developed countries, various foreign banks solicited deposits at high interest rates and bought and co-opted the ruble savings of Soviet enterprises.

The state-owned banks of the USSR, which had to wait in line forever, were abandoned, and there was a big transfer of deposits of the Soviet people.

When the Russian people, businesses, financial institutions, and even the Central Bank of Russia briefly enjoyed a "free lunch" and fragrant coffee, and breathed in the fresh air of the free market, a real financial plunder began to close the net before you knew it.

Ye Kai knew very well that the tragic fate of the ruble began when the rubles of Russian depositors and state-owned banks that had been borrowed for the aggressive shorting of the ruble were in place.

Soon, the Russian media, already controlled by foreign powers, will degrade the ruble on a large scale, and "research reports" on the state-owned enterprises of the former Soviet Union will begin to flood the international financial community.

"The state-owned enterprises of the former Soviet Union are not capable of self-sustaining at all", "the bonds of the former Soviet state-owned enterprises are seriously overvalued", "the ruble needs to be repriced", and "the ruble should adopt a more liberal market-oriented float".

Under such pressure, will the ruble be able to hold up?

The answer is obviously no, Ye Kai has no doubt that the depreciation of the ruble will be out of control! (To be continued)