Chapter 407: Ten Million Tons of Reserves
"That's where we hesitate." Wang Hongsheng said, he pointed to the tea that the secretary had just poured out, and said to Qin Hai with a smile: "Let's drink tea first, let's talk while drinking tea." I mainly want to hear your thoughts on this issue. ”
Affected by the long-term planned economy, China's product price system is strictly distorted. Since the reform, the state has successively liberalized the prices of light industrial products, but it has not dared to touch the prices of heavy industrial products that are related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Heavy industry is the upstream of light industry, and once the price of heavy industry products rises, it will drive the price of downstream light industry products to rise with it, thus affecting the lives of the people. In addition, once the prices of raw materials such as steel and cement get out of control, the construction of key national projects will face the threat of insufficient budget, which is also difficult for the state to bear.
Despite all these concerns, straightening out the price system is still something that cannot be left untouched. If the prices of heavy industry products are not adjusted for a long time, the development of heavy industry will be affected, and eventually the development speed of the entire country will be slowed down. It is precisely because of this that the State Development Planning Commission has been planning a plan to liberalize the prices of heavy industrial products, and by this time the entire price reform is already on the bow and will be launched at any time.
Wang Hongsheng is well aware of the risks of initiating the reform of the prices of heavy industrial products, and has been looking for ways to avoid them. During this time, he has been in contact with officials in many places to discuss the tolerance of price fluctuations in various places. This time when he came to Anhe, he also talked to Chai Peide about this issue, but only received a reluctant answer. However, Chai Peide did not want to listen to Qin Hai's opinion, although in the eyes of officials of their level. Qin Hai is just a private entrepreneur, but Chai Peide thinks. Qin Hai is a person with a lot of insight, and he may be able to give Wang Hongsheng some alternative enlightenment.
As early as the last time Qin Hai went to Wang Hongsheng's house for a family banquet. Wang Hongsheng admired Qin Hai's vision. After listening to Chai Peide's recommendation, he decided to have an interview with Qin Hai on the issue of price reform to hear what this quick-thinking young man had to say.
Qin Hai picked up the small gongfu teacup, appreciated the green tea in the cup, drank it all, praised "good tea", and thanked Wang Hongsheng's secretary, then returned to the topic, and said:
"Director Wang. In my opinion, price fluctuations are nothing more than an imbalance between supply and demand. At present, the supply of means of production is a dual-track process of planning and market, and if we want to liberalize the planned price, we are actually pushing the planned means of production to the market. Units that were unable to buy these means of production because of planning constraints are now qualified to buy them, and the market demand will rise by a large margin, resulting in a certain contradiction between supply and demand. Do you say so? ”
Wang Hongsheng nodded and said, "That's right." ”
Qin Hai continued: "If the market supply of a product is insufficient, it can only be obtained by the one with the highest price. That's why the market price is rising. In order to avoid a serious price increase, the state needs to be prepared for a rainy day and prepare enough supplies in advance in case of an imbalance between supply and demand. Sell it out to stabilize prices, this reason. I think Director Wang and the researchers at the Planning Commission must have understood. ”
Wang Hongsheng said: "The truth is true, but the country must prepare enough materials." It's not an easy task. How much do you think is enough? ”
"I don't have that concept. Director Wang should know this better than me, right? Qin Hai said frankly. He is just a material expert, not an economist, how can he calculate how big the material gap will be in the whole country.
Wang Hongsheng also knew that his question was not something that Qin Hai could answer, and he said: "On this issue, we have organized no less than ten expert seminars. The opinions of the experts are also very different, some people think that the state does not need to prepare any materials, and it is good to let the price of goods rise to a certain extent. ”
"Hehe, this view is not new." Qin Hai commented in a somewhat mocking tone.
"It's really not new, Western scholars call this shock therapy, and the Soviet Union is preparing to adopt such a policy." Wang Hongsheng said.
Qin Hai said with a smile: "The Soviet big brother has a high consciousness and is always willing to use it as a test field for us. Let's wait for the Soviets to try it and see how it works, and then decide whether we want to use such a policy or not, what do you think? In my guess, within two years, the Soviet Union will tell us with bloody facts that this road is not going to work. ”
"You Xiao Qin, you have too many witticisms." Wang Hongsheng helplessly nodded at Qin Hai with his hand and criticized. However, he agrees with Qin Hai's statement in his heart, as a veteran cadre of the Planning Commission, he knows that shock therapy is actually to quench thirst, and it is impossible for China to try such a policy. Qin Hai is right, the Soviets are willing to be a test field, so let them try. When they hit the south wall, they knew that the road was impassable.
"In any case, the price fluctuations are too great, and the damage to the national economy must be very significant. Many businesses will be in trouble as a result, and the lives of ordinary people will also be affected by the harshness. In my opinion, if our country wants to carry out price reform, the price fluctuations within a certain period of time can be tolerated, but there must be sufficient means to ensure that prices do not soar to the point where the stability of the country is endangered, and this is the bottom line that the country should have. Qin Hai put away his ridiculous face and said to Wang Hongsheng.
Wang Hongsheng said: "You are right, this is also the common view of several veteran comrades of our Planning Commission. Products that need to be stockpiled include coal, pig iron, steel, cement, copper, aluminum, caustic soda, soda ash, heavy oil, gasoline, and more. Taking steel as an example, we consider that we need to have at least 20 million tons of steel reserves in order to be able to do not panic. ”
"20 million tons ......" Qin Hai silently calculated in his heart, and then nodded. At present, the country's annual steel output is about 70 million tons, and 20 million tons is equivalent to one-third of the output. If the State Development Planning Commission can control such a large batch of reserves, it will be able to put in materials to stabilize fluctuations when there are fluctuations in the market, so as to reduce the risks brought about by price reform.
However, 20 million tons of steel is not a small amount, with the ex-factory price of 950 yuan per ton of carbon structural billet, 20 million tons will occupy 19 billion yuan of working capital. What's more, there are many types of steel, and the price of some steel grades is much higher than that of carbon structural steel, so 20 million tons of steel need to occupy at least more than 20 billion yuan.
Considering that steel is only one of the reserve products mentioned by Wang Hongsheng, counting other products, the state must take out at least 100 billion yuan of funds. With the current economic situation of the country, the pressure to come up with such a large sum of money is very great.
Wang Hongsheng watched the change in Qin Hai's face and knew that he had understood the difficulty of this reserve system. He asked with a smile: "How about it, Xiao Qin, is it possible for your company to help the country share a little pressure?" ”
"Among the materials you just mentioned, we in Daqin Group only produce cement and steel. Our Qujiang cement plant has limited production and has little impact on the country's macroeconomy. In terms of steel, we currently have a production capacity of 1 million tons, and we plan to expand to 5 million tons in the future. This expansion plan was originally intended to be completed in five years, since the country now has demand, we can consider speeding up the progress and completing the expansion in two years, what do you think? Qin Hai said. Since Wang Hongsheng has already asked him, he doesn't need to bargain anymore, and directly showed his hole cards to Wang Hongsheng.
"Can we complete the expansion within 2 years?" Wang Hongsheng asked.
Qin Haidao: "This is not difficult, we got some equipment from the Soviet Union, and we have also contacted some second-hand equipment in Europe, which can be purchased at any time to form our production capacity." Of course, we may need some support from the state in this regard, such as the right to foreign trade and the right to use foreign exchange. ”
Wang Hongsheng replied simply: "If you make a report, within the scope of what the country can bear, it will take special action for you and give you the green light." ”
"That's great." Qin Hai said happily, it seems that it is still good to share the worries of the country, and the country can make up for his efforts by opening a hole in the policy casually.
"If you go all out, how much steel reserves will you be able to provide to the Planning Commission before 1994?" Wang Hongsheng asked urgently.
Qin Hai thought for a while and said: "Our liquidity is also limited, and it is basically unrealistic to establish reserves for the Planning Commission in the form of inventory. However, I can guarantee that by 1994 more than 10 million tons of emergency supplies will be available at any time, what do you think? ”
"10 million tons? What are you going to do? Wang Hongsheng was a little surprised. He never expected that Qin Hai would dare to open such a mouth, in his original plan, Qin Hai could provide one or two million tons of support, and he was already very satisfied. If Qinhai can really provide 10 million tons, it will be a surprise for the Planning Commission, and the Planning Commission can transfer the working capital originally planned for steel reserves to stock up on other materials, and this game of chess can be regarded as a live.
Qin Hai whispered something to Wang Hongsheng, and Wang Hongsheng nodded, his face showing joy. He can hear that Qin Hai's plan is indeed operable, and if it is operated properly, the 10 million tons of steel promised by Qin Hai can be fully provided, which will be a strong support for the upcoming price reform.
At the same time, he also thought that Qin Hai's practice could also be extended to other enterprises. The Planning Commission has hundreds of large state-owned enterprises in its hands, and if these enterprises can also learn from Qin Hai's practice, even if they have fewer obligations, they will be able to greatly reduce the pressure on the Planning Commission.
"Xiao Qin, this matter is very important, I hope you can do it well. You can rest assured that the state will not forget the enterprises that have made contributions, and the state will give you something back at the right time in the future. Wang Hongsheng looked at Qin Hai and said meaningfully. (To be continued......)