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On December 19, as the Mexican government announced the depreciation of the peso, a move that was in fact half a day earlier than in history, and the Mexican government had waited until late at night to announce the decision, Bao Feiyang could not guess how President Zedillo had made this decision, perhaps because of the enthusiastic response to his plan to open up the market, or for other reasons, he announced the decision ahead of schedule.

Regardless of what Sedillo thought, the result was much the same, and after this decision was announced, a large number of pesos were sold in the market at once. The impact of the high proportion of short-term investment in Mexico's foreign investment structure, especially securitized investment, was suddenly highlighted, and these funds wanted to withdraw at the first time, and if they wanted to withdraw, they had to exchange their peso assets back to US dollars, and the sell orders in the market were basically thrown by these investors.

Due to the lack of buy orders, the price of sell orders fell all the way, the market exchange rate saw all the way to a sharp fall, the Mexican government finally chose to take orders, in the spot market, slightly stabilized the decline of the peso, due to the limited trading time in the afternoon, to the day when the market closed, the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the US dollar fell by 13 percent, The drop from 3.47 pesos to a huàn dollar to 3.925 pesos to a huàn dollar was only a few hours and was born with the intervention of the Mexican government.

Although the end-of-session exchange rate was stable above the 15 percent depreciation announced by the Mexican government, which is 4.oo16 pesos to huàn 1 US dollars, the Mexican government's move has already severely damaged market confidence, and a large number of pesos sell orders appeared again in the spot and forward currency markets the next day.

"Sell orders in the spot market indicate that there is a lot of capital flight. The sell order in the futures market shows that everyone is not confident in the future market of Peso, some people want to take this opportunity to make a big profit, and some people want to hedge risks, but now it seems that due to the lack of buyers, their ideas are difficult to realize. Douglas stared at the big screen and said with great emotion.

"Once there is a storm in the capital market, international funds will flock to the market like sharks that smell blood, but everyone is not stupid, and people who enter the market at this time will be very cautious. The opportunities they can find out from them are very limited. Only those investors who open positions in advance rely on their foresight to get the most benefits. When Douglas said this, he looked at Bao Feiyang very feverishly, he already knew that Bao Feiyang was in danger before he died. Even half a year ago, a large number of short positions in pesos were opened in the forward currency trading market. So that you can make a lot of money in this change.

Tang Mi'er pursed her lips and said, "In the end." Someone earns someone else's hard-earned money. ”

Bao Feiyang smiled, and before he could speak, Douglas had already retorted: "This has nothing to do with investors. The holders of those long positions are speculators in the first place, and if they are only hedging in the futures market, they will not lose money anyway. ”

The operation method of hedging is to sell a foreign currency in the market in advance when it expires, and if it costs a peso at maturity, it is bought in advance, so that the price spent is always the current exchange rate, even if the exchange rate fluctuates greatly, there is no loss.

However, there are a large number of speculators in the futures market, who do not have the funds to hedge, and simply buy and sell forward contracts, which is speculation, and they have to bear the corresponding risks.

Tang Mi'er glared at Douglas angrily: "What are you in a hurry, I didn't say anything about you." ”

Douglas said: "Yes, but I would love to be the kind of person you said, sweeping the financial markets, those failed speculators deserve sympathy, but that is their own chosen path, failure, you can't blame anyone, especially the winners, you can only blame them for their poor vision, misjudgment, and too greedy, and you can even complain that the Mexican government doesn't play its cards according to common sense, that is, you can't blame the winners." ”

"Hmph, if you fail one day, I'm afraid you won't say that, right?" Tang Mier couldn't say anything about Douglas, frowned and said.

Douglas hurriedly straightened his chest: "I will be like Mr. Bao and strive to be a success." ”

Bao Feiyang sighed: "I'm just lucky, in this market, no one can guarantee that they will always be the winner, not even Soros!" ”

Douglas said with a fanatical face: "What is Soros, I think Mr. Bao is the most powerful, even Soros has no way to foresee the specific time of the Mexican financial crisis, the investment appreciation of the quantum fund is indeed eye-catching, but Soros is better at manipulating the market, so it is safer to make money, but just like Miss Mier just said, that is the real profit made of flesh and blood." ”

The operation method of the quantum fund is to enter in advance after seeing the crisis, and then suddenly throw a "bomb" and sell the target currency, so that the crisis will explode in advance, and the process of explosion will be more strict. In contrast, Bao Feiyang just entered the market, waited silently, and made a lot of money when the crisis occurred, which in itself would not have any effect on the production of the crisis, just like this Mexican financial crisis, whether Bao Feiyang intervened or not, the crisis would arise, and those speculators would suffer a catastrophe.

Of course, strictly speaking, Bao Feiyang's slow accumulation of a large number of short positions will indeed have some negative impact on the market, and will also have some direct impact on some speculators, but these effects are all quantitative and not qualitative.

Bao Feiyang shrugged his shoulders, Soros is best at shorting, bloody all the way, but at the same time he has done a lot of charity, and he often claims to be a defender of an open society, perhaps as Douglas said, since he has entered this market, then winning or losing must be accepted, but the resulting inflation, business closures, a large number of people unemployment and bankruptcy and other economic consequences, but more people have to bear.

"Mr. Bao, I want to be your student and study with you for a while, okay?" Douglas changed the subject. "Your judgment of the Mexican peso is so accurate that I don't think even the most brilliant economists can compare with you," he said with extraordinary enthusiasm. ”

Since yesterday, Douglas has been pestering Bao Feiyang, wanting to worship him as a teacher according to the Huaxia tradition, Bao Feiyang had to tell him that Huaxia is no longer a teacher, he will be Bao Feiyang's student, like a piece of kraft candy, no matter how he shakes it off.

Bao Feiyang hurriedly shook his hand and said, "I'll talk about this matter later, maybe I'll encounter Waterloo next?" ”

"No, it won't. The die is cast. The peso is finished, Mexico is finished, and you, teacher, are the biggest victors in this crisis. Douglas said with unusual enthusiasm.

The market is indeed moving as Douglas said, whether it is a cash or futures market. are lacking buyers. and a large backlog of selling orders.

The spot market is key. If the spot market exchange rate falls all the way, futures prices will inevitably fall even lower.

After the market opened on the day, the peso continued the previous day's trend. Soon it fell below the 4.oo16 line proposed by the Mexican government, and on the basis of the previous day's 13%, it fell by more than 10% again, and the market panicked.

The Mexican government had to strike again and buy pesos in dollars in the spot market in an attempt to stabilize the situation and preserve the peso exchange rate.

By the end of the day, the Mexican government had exhausted nearly $300 million in reserves, and it was still unable to stabilize the situation, and the peso exchange rate fell by 15.3 percent again, reaching 4.5 pesos to the price of one dollar.

On the 21st, the Mexican government fought for another day, and more than 400 million foreign exchange reserves were basically exhausted, and the exchange rate of the peso fell by more than 40 percent, so that 6 pesos could only be exchanged for one dollar.

Faced with this situation, on the evening of the 21st, the Mexican government had to announce the abandonment of the peso's fixed exchange rate against the US dollar, which gave the peso the final blow and began to leak all the way, with a minimum of nearly 8 pesos to be able to exchange against huàn1 US dollars, and the peso exchange rate was less than half of the original, falling by more than 55%.

The collapse of the peso exchange rate has had a huge negative effect on the entire financial market, raising doubts about Mexico's ability to repay its short-term debt, which has emerged as an international payment crisis has emerged as a result of the large number of short-term dollar bonds issued by the Mexican government, which they are unable to repay in the face of a crisis of confidence. The country's fragile financial system immediately fell into insolvency, and the currency crisis quickly turned into a financial crisis.

As banks demanded loans, interest rates soared, inflation intensified, and the financial crisis led to a severe economic crisis, with a large number of businesses and factories closing and unemployment soaring.

In the stock market, the stock index also began to fall all the way, falling by half in just 60 days, from 28 points before the crisis to 15oo points, and even more than the decline in the peso exchange rate.

Bao Feiyang witnessed the initial scene of the peso collapse, and it was also the most tragic ten days. Bao Feiyang's early short positions were concentrated at the end of 1994, most of which had been liquidated and cashed, and the assets had increased rapidly.

However, compared with the Mexican financial crisis, after these countries were affected, the market was affected to a certain extent, but the decline was not as large as Mexico's, and after the Mexican financial crisis, investors have been relatively cautious, leaving Bao Feiyang and others with little room for operation, and the cost of building a position is not high.

In addition, due to the harvest in the Mexican market, Bao Feiyang did not want his actions to attract the attention of the relevant parties, the flow of funds to the South American market, the purpose of making another sum of money is secondary, the most important thing is to disperse and evacuate, try not to attract attention.

Seeing that the one-month vacation was coming to an end, Bao Feiyang asked Meng Shuang to stay in the United States, and he was ready to return to China first, just when he even booked the air ticket, he suddenly received a message from the Tang family, it seemed that their old rival Honeycott family had some problems, so he had to temporarily postpone the trip and rushed over to discuss countermeasures with the old man Tang Zhenshan, Tang Yongwen and others. (To be continued......)