Chapter 543: Huge Speculation
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Under the terms of the agreement, Honeycott Sr. will use most of the cash and a small portion of the shares of Resources of the Americas to acquire more than 60 percent of the shares of Intercera in the Tang family's name, including some shares in supporting assets, which Tang Jiatong Guò will receive in a lump sum of $1.2 billion in cash.
In addition, the elder Honeycott will exchange cash, dollar securities and equity assets for peso funds and securities in the hands of the Tang family, worth a billion dollars.
The difference, that is, about $400 million, will be coordinated by the elder Honeycote with the bank he is familiar with, and the Tang family will provide asset guarantees, loan $400 million from the bank, and agree to repay the loan in pesos after a year.
In this way, Honeycott Sr. fulfilled the promise of funds equivalent to the purchase price, and in addition to the company's shares worth 200 million US dollars, they invested a total of about 2 billion US dollars in cash, and in order to raise these funds, Honeycott Sr. also used all of its resources. Among the 200 million, there is a part of its own funds, about 450 million yuan of securities investment, another 1 billion yuan of mortgages, and about 300 million yuan of equity assets.
This part of the equity assets is mainly the investment of the Honeycott family through the Guò Galaxy Fund, most of which have invested in Silicon Valley companies, Silicon Valley has developed very fast over the years, and some of the returns on investment are very rich, but there are still a large number of potential companies that have not yet been able to make dazzling results, in order to raise funds, the old Honeycourt chose to sell this part of the equity assets. Among them, the Tang family received a part. Bao Feiyang also came forward to acquire some of it, but he did not pay money, but reached a loan agreement of up to 200 million with the Tang family, he borrowed 200 million from the Tang family to acquire this part of the equity, and the old Honeycott got 200 million and then traded it to the Tang family, in fact, the Tang family did not need to really pay money.
After paying such a huge price, the Honeycot family not only acquired the high-quality assets of Intercera and its supporting properties, but also quickly mobilized a billion pesos worth of funds in this way. Honeycot Sr. plans to use the funds to participate in the new government's tender with the funds from the bank that Intercera has borrowed from the bank. Bid for high-quality oil and gas resources.
As long as the auction is successful, Honeycot Sr. can continue to mortgage these resources to obtain dollar loans, and after the oil and gas resources are exploited, it will bring huge profits. Paying off the loan is not a problem at all. He can also take out a part of the interest in oil and gas resources. Bringing in investment. Pay off your previous loan directly.
According to Honeycott Sr.'s assessment, both the price at which Intercera was acquired and the exchange rate used for the exchange was used. He didn't lose anything, especially since he agreed to the exchange deal, and the purchase price of Intercera was basically at a premium of 1.2 times, which is a very low price for a company like Intercera that is well-known and well-run.
Therefore, the elder Honeycott was very satisfied with this transaction, and once the agreement was reached, he began to act vigorously, fulfill the corresponding commitments as quickly as possible, and urged the Tang family to complete the transaction.
For the Tang family, the sale of Intercera is a loss, but considering the shape of Mexico's economy, since they have made the judgment that the Mexican economy may be turbulent, it is inevitable to sell Mexico's property based on this judgment.
In addition to the packaged sale of Intercera and its supporting properties to the Honeycot family, the Tang family also disposed of a number of other assets, including marketable securities and some industrial assets, which were very popular due to their low prices and relatively good asset quality.
Through the transfer of assets, the Tang family has realized a total of more than 3 billion US dollars, in addition to the way of the Honey Cote family to more than 2 billion US dollars, but also through other ways to realize more than 1 billion US dollars, plus the assets transferred to the United States in the early stage, the Tang family's dollar assets have reached more than 4 billion, which is also a considerable small consortium in the United States.
For the Tang family, it is a pity to give up the Mexican industry that has been operating for many years, but compared with Mexico's uncertain economic shape, the safety of US dollar assets is very high, especially the economic development of the United States in recent years has been very stable, and there has been a large inflow of capital, so the Tang family's actions will not feel very strange.
The Tang family has a lot of money in hand, and there is some controversy about how to use it, but under Bao Feiyang's Jianyi, they still took out about a billion dollars of money to invest in the financial market and sell the peso short.
Although the Tang family's actions have been very bold, but in Bao Feiyang's view, it is still a little conservative, compared to the Tang family, Bao Feiyang has already let Fang Xia Ceramics raise a large amount of money to enter the investment company located in the United States, and then accumulated a large number of short orders in the forward currency trading market.
The so-called short order of the peso is a kind of futures trading.
Because the exchange rate in the international market fluctuates greatly, even if the peso is pegged to the US dollar, it actually fluctuates, especially compared with other currencies, the fluctuation may be relatively large.
In international transactions, in order to avoid losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations, we will carry out forward currency transactions, such as the company in international trade, the company in the United States will have a peso in a month later, in order to prevent exchange rate fluctuations, the peso depreciation, the company on the market at the current exchange rate price to sell the peso, agreed to pay one month later, in this way, regardless of whether the peso expires or not, the company gets the same amount of dollars.
If the value of the peso depreciates, the company will maintain the value of the transaction, and if the peso expires and appreciates, then it will naturally not enjoy the benefits of appreciation.
After years of evolution, forward currency trading has become more than just a hedge of value, and has begun to become an important battlefield for exchange rate speculation. If financial speculators are bearish on the peso, they will sell a large number of short orders in the forward market, and then wait until the peso really falls. You can make a lot of money.
For example, now that the price of the dollar and the peso is one to one, and the speculator thinks that the peso will depreciate, he sells 10,000 pesos in the forward currency exchange market, and a month later, the peso depreciates, and the 10,000 pesos only costs 8,000 dollars, and theoretically he can use 8,000 dollars to buy 10,000 pesos from the spot market to cash in on this sell order, so as to earn the difference of 2,000 dollars.
In practice, it is not necessary to actually go to the spot market to buy pesos to close positions, but to settle directly according to the futures contract. For example, a contract of 10,000 pesos. Buyers don't have to pay $10,000. You only need to pay a pro-rata margin, and after expiration, if the peso falls, it is only worth 8,000 dollars. Debit $2,000 from the margin account to the seller. The seller makes a profit on this transaction. Buyers will lose $2,000, which is exchange rate speculation and a common tactic used by international speculators such as Soros.
Bao Feiyang has long known the timing of the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis. Therefore, from the second half of the year, it gradually mobilized funds to enter the forward currency trading market, and established a large number of short positions in pesos.
The Tang family entered at this time, and as the overvalued shape of the peso became more and more clear, their sell orders in the market lacked buyers, because everyone believed that the peso would depreciate, and no one would buy the peso at the spot price at this time.
This situation was naturally expected by Bao Feiyang. He confidently proposed his own proposal to Tang Zhenshan: "Grandpa Tang, I will build your Tang family to hang more short-term contracts for seven to fifteen days, and reduce the price, such as fifteen percentage points lower than the spot exchange price, so that someone will eat into your short contracts." ”
Shorten the contract period, so that some speculators will not see a big change in the peso exchange rate in seven or fifteen days, so that they can buy a low-priced peso contract and make a profit when it expires.
Although everyone knows that the peso exchange rate is overvalued, the speculative atmosphere in the futures market is very strong, speculation is risk-taking, as long as the Tang family keeps the price down and the term shortened, they will definitely be able to sell short contracts.
However, as the time of the crisis is getting closer and closer, the shape is becoming more and more obvious, and ordinary short orders can no longer attract buyers, unless the selling price is more than 10 percentage points lower than the spot exchange price.
This means that the closer to the crisis, the higher the cost of speculation, the greater the risk of speculation, and the less beneficial it will be.
The Tang family did not know that the Mexican financial crisis would inevitably occur, and they were worried that the situation of the peso would not fall sharply in a short period of time, as Bao Feiyang said, and that the decline would probably exceed 20 or 30 percent.
Glancing at Tang Zhenshan, Tang Yongwen said the doubts in his heart to Bao Feiyang: "Isn't it too risky to do this?" Until I have no conclusive evidence, I fear that the rest of the family will disagree. After all, judging by the current situation, it is hard to believe that the exchange rate of the peso against the huàn dollar will fall by such magnitude. ”
Even Tang Zhenshan and Tang Yongwen were skeptical about whether the value of the peso would depreciate sharply, and they didn't dare to fully trust Bao Feiyang's judgment, let alone the other members of the Tang family.
Bao Feiyang groaned, he knew that it would be difficult to convince them. After all, he can't tell Tang Zhenshan and Tang Yongwen that he has crossed over and knows what will happen in the future, and the collapse of the Mexican economy is imminent. I believe that even if Bao Feiyang said this, Tang Zhenshan and Tang Yongwen would not believe it. After all, rebirth and traversal are almost strange to Tang Zhenshan, and only people with abnormal minds would believe it.
However, if Bao Feiyang is to find conclusive evidence to prove to Tang Zhenshan and Tang Yongwen that the Mexican economy will soon collapse and the peso will depreciate sharply in a short period of time, Bao Feiyang really can't take it. Although he has tried his best to collect some arguments that can prove his point, he has integrated various analyses of the world's major mainstream economists on the reasons for the collapse of the Mexican economy during the collapse of the Mexican economy in the last century, and has tried to consolidate his own views as much as possible. However, no matter how plausible the analysis is, it is only an analysis, and it cannot be said to be conclusive evidence that the Mexican economy must collapse and the peso must depreciate, and that it will not be in a very short time. (To be continued......)