"Magistrate Bao, the country's macroeconomic policies have tended to be tighter in the past two years, but the province is still relatively supportive of the development of economic collapse areas like Wanghai County." Because he was about to leave Jingcheng, Xu Shengjiao didn't say too much off-topic, and quickly got to the point, "Of course, the support I mentioned in the province is mainly policy support, under the current economic situation, infrastructure projects, bank credit, and material supply will be tightened, and the competition between regions will be fierce, I don't know if you have any considerations in Wanghai County at this point?" ”

Xu Shengjiao looked at Bao Feiyang, unlike others who thought that Tu Xiaoming was the real leading figure, Xu Shengjiao knew Tu Xiaoming's past situation, and did not think that Tu Xiaoming, who had just come out of his illness, could have such powerful resources and patterns, but on the contrary, Bao Feiyang had a lot of things on his body that he couldn't see clearly, especially in the northwest political situation, the energy system reform promoted by Bao Feiyang was actually led by Deputy Secretary Long Lingui, while Bao Feiyang himself had a close relationship with Tu Yanan, Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee, and Tian Gangqiang, Governor of the province. Combined with such an intricate relationship, Xu Shengjiao believes that in the relationship between Bao Feiyang and Tu Xiaoming, Bao Feiyang should occupy a dominant position.

Bao Feiyang thought about it for a while, and then said calmly: "China's macro economy was a little overheated in the first two years, the growth rate was too fast, the increase in inventory and high inflation, high growth has never been a problem, the local overstock will lead to the backlog, and the shortage will lead to the price increase." I believe that this trend will soon be effectively controlled, and the result of control will inevitably lead to a slowdown in growth. If the economy does not achieve a soft landing, the damage to the domestic economy will be very severe.

"At present, the inventory backlog in some industries is strict, but there is still a shortage of materials in some industries, such as the paper industry, we still need to import thousands of tons of paper products from foreign countries every year, especially high-end paper products, and most of them rely on imports; Half of the chemical additives needed for papermaking are also imported, and the reed paper integration project in Wanghai County is aimed at this shortage, so it does not conflict with the country's macro policy.

"Even I think. To achieve a soft landing. While controlling investment and production capacity in areas with surplus, it is necessary to increase investment in industries in short supply, because there is a cycle for all regulation and control measures to be effective, when the economic growth rate slows down. There are a lot of problems that will come to light. If you don't prepare in advance. At that point, we will be in a deflationary predicament with low growth. ”

Speaking of the back, Bao Feiyang's expression was serious and stern.

When such a theory was in the capital, Bao Feiyang also explained it to Zhao Lao and Zhao Genzheng. In his memory, 1992 and 1993 were the peaks of this growth cycle, when the economy was overheated, and the annual growth rate of the country's GDP was as high as 14 percent, and last year's GDP growth rate dropped slightly, but it was still 13 percent.

Just like Bao Feiyang said, rapid economic growth is not a problem in itself, but economic growth is overly dependent on the increase in investment, which will lead to an increase in material consumption. Moreover, the growth of goods may not correspond to the growth of consumption, which has two consequences: an increase in the money supply and a shortage of goods consumed at the same time, which leads to a skyrocketing price increase.

For example, the investment in machinery manufacturing is overheated, the inventory of mechanical products increases, and the consumption of steel will increase sharply, but the production capacity of steel has not been increased synchronously, which will cause the soaring price of steel, and the rise in steel prices will inevitably lead to the rise in commodity prices of downstream industries, and then cause the price of commodities in the whole society to rise.

In 1992 and 1993, the CPI index reached 14 percent, and last year it was as high as 24 percent. The sharp depreciation of the currency, the interest rate on deposits as high as 10 percent, and even the emergence of value-preserving savings, shows the severity of inflation.

Since the beginning of this year, although this trend has been initially controlled, it has become an issue for people of insight to consider while curbing economic overheating and avoiding the problems caused by low-speed economic growth, and the central authorities have also proposed to achieve a soft landing for the economy.

Although the mainstream view in the future is that the Chinese government has achieved a soft landing and has not fallen into a cycle of overheating and overcooling, from 1997 to 1999, the national economy still experienced a certain period of deflation, especially in 1998 and 1999, when the economic growth rate was only a few hundred percent. The reflection is on the practical level, that is, a large number of inventories are overstocked, goods cannot be sold, workers are laid off, people dare not spend money, and those years are extremely sad.

The ups and downs of economic growth rate are very harmful to economic and social development, and when there is rapid growth, everyone comes to invest, duplicate construction, guide the inventory backlog, and the goods cannot be sold, and many enterprises will be broken in funds, fall into business difficulties and even go bankrupt.

However, the ups and downs of the domestic economy still have problems such as the irrational economic structure, the operational difficulties of state-owned enterprises, and triangular debts, and so on, and each outbreak is particularly violent.

As a person who has come over, Bao Feiyang has a painful feeling about this, and when he answers at this time, he naturally has something to say, giving people the feeling of being in a word.

Xu Shengjiao nodded, making structural adjustments is the consensus of the current economic circles, and it is rare for Bao Feiyang to say it so clearly and concretely.

He said: "It is the established policy of the province to control the scale of investment, especially the investment and redundant construction of overheated industries, but you must know that the efficiency of the implementation of the province's decision-making at the grassroots level is a big problem." Specific to Jingcheng, the province will not directly interfere in many things, but the local government has local considerations, and the officials have their own considerations, and in the end, it is inevitable that the implementation will be out of shape. ”

Bao Feiyang looked at Xu Shengjiao, the executive vice governor who was nearly 60 years old seemed to be reminding him of something, Huaxia's political and economic management is more of a top-down will, and lacks bottom-up constraints, so it is easy to have a situation of rushing up.

Why is the competition for the reed paper integration project so fierce in the city, even Qi Shaojun, secretary of the municipal party committee, and Meng Fan, the mayor of the city, have to go into battle shirtless. And it is obviously biased. Why is that? The main reason is that this year, the city also has to control the scale of investment, and projects such as the integration of reed paper that can be recognized and supported by the above are particularly valuable, so everyone has to fight hard.

Although Wanghai County has won the reed paper integration project, this is a good thing. However, it will also have a certain adverse impact on the planned port, road and bridge projects in Wanghai County. On the one hand, the city's investment share will be reduced because of the investment in the reed paper integration project, and on the other hand, there will definitely be people who say that you have already received such a large investment in Wanghai, and the investment in other projects will not be able to give you.

Bao Feiyang nodded: "I understand what Governor Xu means, if there is no problem with the path we are taking, we can't stop and wait." So we will try to run forward on the right path. After all, Wanghai County has lagged behind for too long, and our country has lagged behind for too long. But we're going to try to be as steady as possible and try to get the job done. ”

Xu Shengjiao was very satisfied, and Bao Feiyang seemed to have understood what he meant.

He said, "You are a capable and perceptive man. Also very motivated young man. I hope you are in Wanghai a qiēshun lì. If there is any problem that cannot be solved, you are welcome to come to me, but I cannot guarantee whether it can be solved. ”

Speaking of the last word. Xu Shengjiao laughed.

"Thank you, Governor Xu, your words are enough." Bao Feiyang said with a smile, he didn't expect Xu Shengjiao to give such a sentence, after all, judging from past deeds, Xu Shengjiao is a slightly conservative neutral in the province, and he will not favor anyone, he believes that Xu Shengjiao should know that he is closer to Governor Wang Hongfeng.

After saying goodbye to Xu Shengjiao and leaving, Tu Xiaoming asked Bao Feiyang with some doubts: "Feiyang, I heard what you just meant, are you not optimistic about the future economic situation?" ”

Bao Feiyang glanced back at Tu Xiaoming, but he didn't expect Tu Xiaoming to be able to feel this, it should be that he was a little pessimistic when he was talking just now.

Shaking his head, Bao Feiyang said to Tu Xiaoming: "Brother Ming, the domestic economy still has at least 20 years of rapid growth, but the domestic economy is greatly affected by the policy, and the policy is liberalized, the economy begins to grow by leaps and bounds, and investment increases sharply, resulting in economic overheating; As soon as the policy is collected, many industries will fall into difficulties again, countless enterprises will be affected, and this cycle of ups and downs is particularly short, just like Zhang Yanghao said, prosperity, people suffering; Death, the people suffer. This common people are not only workers and peasants, but also many individual and private entrepreneurs. ”

Tu Xiaoming thought about it, and also felt that Bao Feiyang was right, Zhang Yanghao's two lines of poetry were also well written, he sighed, and was about to say something, but Bao Feiyang had already patted him on the shoulder and said: "However, this is an era of rapid technological development, no matter how ups and downs, everyone's life is still getting better and better, fifteen years ago, who had meat on the table every week?" Even your family can't do it, right? But now, although the price of meat is expensive, at least we can eat meat every week, and it won't take long for people to eat meat every day in five years. ”

Tu Xiaoming couldn't help laughing, thinking to himself, how could this guy Bao Feiyang need to comfort himself? Although Bao Feiyang is only twenty-four years old and less than twenty-five years old, his psychological age is already very mature, and even the secretary of the provincial party committee of Laozi Northwest Province is full of praise, so what do you have to worry about?

Bao Feiyang thought a lot at this moment, the next few years, will be a more difficult period for the Chinese economy, although the current economy seems to be growing rapidly, but there are too many hidden problems, especially the efficiency of state-owned enterprises is too low, and the triangular debt problem that spreads to all parts of the country almost drags down the entire country's economy.

Beginning in 1998, the new cabinet will carry out reform of the state-owned economy in a big way, and after several years of grasping the big and letting go of the small, it has completely changed the appearance of the state-owned economy, and now the problem of laid-off workers, which is of great concern to everyone, has been gradually resolved. This will be the years that will determine the future direction of the country's economy, and after this wave of economic reforms is over, there will be no such historical process that will have an impact on the overall economy.

And in this process, there are also many problems, if you want to participate in this process, you must do your best to grow, and time is running out.

This is the best of times, and it is also the era when you can use your abilities the most. Now that I have lived again, I can't live up to this beautiful and passionate era with the most development potential! (To be continued......)