"The chief's topic is too big, I didn't prepare, and I was worried that I wouldn't be able to say it well." Qin Hai replied embarrassedly.

With Qin Hai's knowledge level, coupled with his experience in the materials industry over the years, it is actually qualified to express some views on the country's material industry strategy. But who to say this kind of thing, if it is to make a report in the School of Materials, Qin Hai will not hesitate at all, and he is also confident that the experts will be impressed; But in front of the chief, he didn't dare to talk casually, and it was a shame to be wrong and secondary, in case he didn't think about it thoroughly, and misled the chief's decision-making, his sin would be great.

The chief saw Qin Hai's thoughts, he waved his hand lightly, and said, "It's okay, let you speak, you can speak, it's okay if you make a mistake." ”

Qin Haidao: "The main reason is that I didn't know in advance that the chief wanted me to report this problem, otherwise I would have made some preparations." ”

The chief smiled, "I deliberately didn't let people inform you in advance. If you are asked to prepare in advance, I am afraid that people from all walks of life will have to let you speak, and I am afraid that it will be difficult for me to hear the truth. You don't have any psychological burden, let's just chat casually, I heard that Ji Lao said, when you chat with him, isn't it quite relaxed? ”

"That'...... Then I'll have the audacity to say something superficial. Qin Hai said. He originally wanted to say that chatting with Ji Lao was different from chatting in front of the chief, but after thinking about it, he didn't seem to be able to find anything different. Although Ji Lao is a retired leader, after all, he can also influence decision-making, he dares to speak freely in front of Ji Lao, so what is the need to hide it in front of the chief?

Thinking of this, Qin Hai prepared for a few minutes, then sat up straight and said, "Since the chief wants to test me, then I'll tell you my opinion." If you say something wrong, please criticize the chief. ”

"Well, you name it." The chief nodded, spread out a notebook of sticky notes in front of him, and took out a pencil, ready to write down some thoughts at any time. The chief's secretary brought Qin Hai a cup of tea. Then he sat next to him, spread out his notebook, and the detailed recording work was to be done by him.

"My debriefing preparation is divided into three parts." Qin Hai calmed his mind and said in a calm tone: "First, the status of the material industry; second, the characteristics of the development of the materials industry; Third, China's policy orientation in the development of the material industry. Can you read this? ”

"Good." The chief smiled and replied, "You may say that there is no right or wrong here. ”

"First of all. I would like to briefly introduce the issue of the position of the materials industry in the national economy......"

Qin Hai began to talk eloquently, at the beginning, he was still a little nervous, but as he spoke, he entered the state, completely forgetting the status of the audience in front of him. He was not originally a person in the system, and he has always looked down on the hierarchical order in the officialdom, even in front of the chief. He didn't have that kind of sincere fear, he only knew that the other party was a person who could have an impact on the development of the country's material industry. And he wants to use his ideas to influence the decision-maker.

"In the next 20 years, China will usher in a period of blowout demand for materials. We need to build more than 100,000 kilometers of highways, tens of thousands of kilometers of high-speed railways, and billions of square meters of residential and commercial buildings, which require hundreds of millions of tons of steel, cement, and an equally large amount of glass, architectural ceramics, aluminum alloys and polymer materials. The demand for these materials can only be met by expanding domestic production capacity. If you want to rely on foreign countries to provide it, then you will be subject to people, which is very passive. Qin Hai said.

"In the past two or three years, the domestic steel and cement production capacity has increased rapidly, and I have read the report provided by the Planning Commission. The country's steel production capacity has reached 150 million tons, do you think this is considered overcapacity? The chief interjected.

Qin Hai shook his head firmly and said, "It's still far away." According to the calculation of our group, if there is no special situation in the country's economic development, according to the current development rate, by 2005, the domestic steel demand will reach more than 400 million tons, and the existing 150 million tons of production capacity will be more than 250 million tons away from meeting this demand. ”

"Why, do you think there was a domestic demand for 400 million tons of steel in 2005?" The chief looked at Qin Hai and asked.

The steel industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy, and the chief executive is naturally very concerned about this industry. The Ministry of Machinery, the Planning Commission, the Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions have done steel supply and demand analysis and forecasting, Qin Hai said that in 2005 the demand for steel will reach more than 400 million tons, the chief has also seen. However, most institutions are dismissive of the figure of 400 million tons, and their boldest predictions are limited to 200 million tons, according to which the current development of the domestic steel industry seems too fast.

Hearing that Qin Hai actually supported 400 million tons, the chief was a little surprised. Although he had only had one direct contact with Qin Hai before, he had heard a lot about Qin Hai in his daily life, and he also knew that Qin Hai was not a man of his own words. If Qin Hai believes that there will be an annual demand of 400 million tons of steel in the future, then it means that many relevant policies of the country in the development of the steel industry need to be re-evaluated.

In the mid-90s, China was on the eve of an economic take-off, state-owned enterprises were undergoing unprecedented major adjustments, and private capital had just shaken off the fence of the old system and was boldly pouring into various fields. The reform of the housing system has just begun, and no one can foresee the frenzy of real estate development that will emerge in a few years' time, unless the most imaginative of the people is in the first place. When people look back in 2015, they are shocked at the dramatic changes that have taken place in these 20 years. At this point in time in 1996, even a wise elder like the chief did not dare to make too high an estimate of the speed of China's economic development.

As the chief asked Qin Hai before, most people are worried about the development of the domestic steel industry in recent years. They are worried that steel production capacity is growing too high and that there will be an oversupply in the future. The strict overcapacity will lead to a sharp drop in steel prices and affect the development of the entire national economy. Qin Hai's view is the opposite, he believes that the current pace of China's steel industry development is too slow, lack of sufficient foresight, which will drag the entire economy back.

"Our group has done a detailed demonstration, judging that by 2005, the domestic market demand for steel will reach more than 400 million tons, the relevant research model and calculation process, I can let the group research department sort it out, submitted to the chief. At present, the state has a misunderstanding of this issue, and there will be a relatively passive situation in the future. Qin Hai said.

After the initial astonishment, the chief's expression had become calm. He was noncommittal to Qin Hai's assertions, and just asked calmly: "So, in your opinion, what should the state do in terms of steel production?" ”

Qin Hai has thought deeply about this question, and he said fluently: "First of all, according to the future demand for steel, the source of iron ore needs to be considered. China lacks high-grade iron ore, and once steel production rises sharply, iron ore will inevitably rely on imports. In order to avoid passivity in imports, the state should take the initiative to acquire or invest in some large iron ore mines in Australia, Brazil, Bolivia and other countries to ensure that the supply of iron ore can be controlled by itself. ”

"Iron ore." The chief wrote a word on the sticky note in front of him, then nodded, "What about the second?" ”

Qin Hai continued: "The second is the development of steel equipment, the formulation of steel technical specifications and personnel training. In the future, our steel should not only ensure quantity and quality, but also be environmentally friendly and efficient, which requires us to master advanced steel production technology and improve the competitiveness of the steel industry. ”

"The second is technology." The chief wrote another word. Whether Qin Hai's conclusion on steel demand is correct or not needs to be further demonstrated, but these problems raised by Qin Hai about the development of the steel industry will have to be faced sooner or later, so the chief listened very carefully.

"The third point is to limit and eliminate backward production capacity and reduce pollution." Qin Hai said.

"Pollution?" The chief's pen fell on the paper, but he did not write down the word. In his view, the supply of raw materials and the issue of steel smelting technology are all strategic matters that deserve his attention. The problem of pollution is only a tactical matter, and it is enough to have local environmental protection departments in charge, where is the turn of a leader of his level to personally intervene?

"Yes, it's pollution." Qin Hai said seriously, "Chief, don't underestimate the problem of pollution. At present, the industrial pollution in our country is increasing, but on the whole, it is not strict. But with the further expansion of industrial scale, especially in heavily polluting industries such as steel and cement, pollution will soon become a big problem.

At present, more than 50 million tons of our country's 150 million tons of steel production capacity come from small and medium-sized enterprises with relatively backward technology. If the production capacity is to be expanded to 400 million tons in the future, it is likely that more than 200 million tons will come from such enterprises. Iron and steel enterprises with backward equipment are major air polluters, and the pollution caused by 200 million tons of backward production capacity will be unbearable for China and the whole world. ”

"Industrial development will definitely bring pollution, not only require industrial development, but also do not want to pollute the environment, which is a bit difficult, right?" The chief said half-inquiringly, half-retorting.

Qin Haidao: "Chief, I specially asked you to go to Jintang this time, not only to invite you to participate in the large-scale ethylene feeding ceremony, but also to ask you to inspect Jintang City's achievements in controlling pollution in the chemical industry, if possible, to give us an affirmation." The practice of Jintang shows that economic development and the maintenance of green mountains and clear waters can be taken into account. (To be continued......)