Zhou Jintao, born in Tianjin in July 1972, ranked fifth in the Best Strategy Analyst of New Fortune in 2016 and the Best Analyst of New Fortune Strategy Research for five consecutive years from 2008 to 2012. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ｂｉｑUｇE。 Info rose to prominence in 2007 for successfully predicting the subprime mortgage crisis, the so-called Compo recession. After 2015, it successfully predicted global asset price volatility, and in November 2015 predicted that China's economy would bottom out in the first quarter of 2016 and commodities would rebound at an annual level. He is known as "the pioneer of the structuralist school in the field of China's securities macro strategy research".

In 2009, Zhou Jintao came to China Securities from Changjiang Securities to develop and practice his structuralist analysis theory. In 2013, when the whole country fell into the real estate boom, he put forward the view that the real estate cycle will be at an inflection point, and in 2014, he launched a series of research reports such as "The Great Inflection Point of China's Real Estate Cycle", "When Love Has Become a Thing of the Past", "Urbanization Has Become a False Proposition to Support the Continued Rise of Housing Prices", "Real Estate Speculation Feast, the Song Will End Up", "Investment Strategy of the Real Estate Cycle Inflection Point" and so on.

The following is a recent research report by Zhou Jintao, released on September 14:

In the second half of 2017, I have been on sick leave since May, and I have experienced the insights of life.

Hello old and new friends, I have been on sick leave since May, and I have experienced the stage of perception in life, and now my condition has improved, so I would like to talk to you about my thoughts in the near future. Now the first question is how to lay out the layout of 2017 in the fourth quarter, and I will talk about this issue today. What will happen to China's assets in the fourth quarter is a short-term question. At the same time, there is the more important question of what the system opportunities are in 2017. At the end of 2015, I came up with "Fate and Resistance", pointing out that the systemic opportunity in 2016 is a commodity, and this is indeed the biggest opportunity in 2016, whether there is such an opportunity in 2017, and if so, what is.

Turning to the fourth quarter first, I suggested at the end of 2015 that the first quarter of 2016 was the best time for China's assets and commodities to rebound. The reason is that in the first quarter of 2016, China's third inventory cycle started, and at that time the United States and Europe were still in the decline stage of the inventory cycle, so the inventory cycle gave China a good time for one or two quarters. However, everything is a cycle, and by the fourth quarter of 2016, the situation was reversed. From the fourth quarter to the first half of 2017, it is likely to be the worst time for Chinese assets. China's third inventory cycle in the fourth quarter of 2016 may be approaching its cycle high, and from the beginning of 2017, China's inventory cycle will begin to decline. At this time, the inventory cycle in the United States is still in the rising stage, which is expected to raise interest rates by the Federal Reserve, according to the global inventory cycle time difference, Europe began to enter the inventory cycle in the third quarter of 2016 to improve the stage, therefore, the European and American inventory cycle in the fourth quarter to the first half of next year is an upward period, and China happens to be a period of decline, such a combination should be unfavorable to China's assets.

Under this combination, there are two issues that will bring about a large change in asset prices, internally, that is, what will happen to the housing prices in China's first-tier cities, due to the decline in real estate inventory in first-tier cities, and the start of construction cannot keep up, the possibility of housing prices rising again cannot be ruled out, which is obviously not a good thing for asset prices. Given the current social divide on housing prices, I don't believe new construction starts will improve. Externally, although there is upward pressure on the dollar, due to the improvement in Europe, we believe that the appreciation of the dollar may be modest, but the pressure on the depreciation of the Chinese currency is certain, because China has entered the relative worst stage. Therefore, the depreciation of housing prices and exchange rates is a big problem that transcends the price of a single asset, but it is difficult to judge how it will be combined, and if the exchange rate falls first, housing prices may be suppressed. If the house price rises first, the relationship between the house price and the exchange rate is a bit complicated, it should be the house price that rises first and then falls, and then triggers a certain systemic risk. But I haven't thought too much about these scenarios for the time being.

For the whole of 2017, I still haven't found an opportunity similar to the 2016 commodity. From a cyclical point of view, 2017 should be the high point of the inventory cycle in developed economies such as the United States and Europe, and my experience in inventory cycle research is that stagflation will occur in the world, but we have not found the path of how inflation occurs under the existing conditions, and monetary easing cannot solve the problem of global deflation, it should be a problem with the monetary system. But the third inventory high will show the difference between inflation and deflation, which is nothing more than a difference in the form on the way to a recession. The end of the global mid-cycle since 2009 is a high probability event in 2017. The problem of the real estate cycleI have already concluded in the report "A Study of the Real Estate Cycle in Combo" that the period from 2017 to 2019 is a period of resonance and downward resonance in the real estate cycle between China and the United States. Of course, this problem does not necessarily manifest itself in 2017, but it is possible that there will be a trend.

In fact, I have already made the conclusion that 2016 will see an annual rebound in commodities as expected, and in the framework of my commodity cycle, this means that commodities will dip twice from 2017 to 2019. China-related industrial metals such as ferrous metals may end their rally in the fourth quarter, while commodities such as crude oil will be able to remain strong into the first half of next year along with the U.S. inventory cycle, and finally gold will perform again. After 2017, commodities will fall again, and the price of its double dip should be near the 2015 low. So, from a cyclical perspective, 2017 should be the beginning of the year of risk release.

I judge that after the release of China's risk concentration in the fourth quarter to the first half of the year, it may be the opportunity for short-term asset allocation, but I feel that the volatility of most assets should be greater than that in 2016, so it is difficult to make absolute returns in 2017, and in terms of relative returns, gold must be the first choice, and the timing of gold allocation should be at the end of the strong US dollar, roughly judged in the second quarter of 2017.

In terms of the stock market, at present, I think there is still no opportunity for A-shares, mainly waiting for the over-falling rebound after the risk is released, as mentioned above, there should be no opportunity from the perspective of the cycle. From the perspective of innovation, I think the general direction of technological innovation is in the stage of eliminating the technology bubble, and there will be no systematic market, and other aspects cannot be judged for the time being.