In fact, if you understand it in a literal sense, there is no need for the commercial banks and investment banks present to look at the face of the Federal Reserve, everyone is a private bank, why do you say that we have to follow the interest rate hike, Lao Tzu just does not raise interest rates, you bite me?

You must know that when the market is relatively abundant, the Federal Reserve takes the lead in announcing an increase in the lending rate, which will only push the customers who were originally prepared to lend funds to it to other commercial banks that insist on not raising interest rates, but as the officially designated Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve has the means to deal with those disobedient peers, and the simplest and most effective way is to publicly sell Treasury bonds. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 ｉｎfo

Aren't you unwilling to raise interest rates, then I will sell a large number of treasury bonds, urge investors to borrow funds from your bank at low interest rates to buy, drain up the funds on hand, and see what else you use for investment operations, what capital do you have to call me out, not to mention that I still have a lot of auxiliary means to operate?

In the case of a shortage of funds in the market, it is even simpler, because the federal funds rate itself is under tremendous upward pressure, so there is no need for the Fed to squeak, and other commercial banks will have to follow suit and raise their respective lending rates.

In the past 80 years, the Federal Reserve has relied on this means to beat those unwilling peers again and again, and continue to intervene in financial market interest rates in its predetermined direction. Then the first reaction of all of you must be to make a phone call as quickly as possible and order your traders to close all long-term trades with an expected return of less than 20%!

However, sitting on the throne at this time is only a layman who does not have any experience in financial investment theory and operation, and he is not even an adult - even if he has the halo of "telling his word to be true" on his head - and it is this huge gap in age and seniority that makes everyone selectively ignore the fact that the more ignorant a layman like him, the less likely it is to make up such a professional lie out of thin air.

After some head-to-ear discussions, Stephen Norris, who had complained about the non-disclosure agreement just now, stood up again and questioned: "No offense, Shaw, but you said the Fed is going to raise interest rates, why haven't we received any news?" Although we are not as big and powerful as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, we are not unknown people, and the day before yesterday, I had dinner with Mr. Wilson, the chairman of the New York Federal Reserve Committee (one of the 13 Federal Reserve banks that make up the Federal Reserve), and if the Fed is really secretly brewing such a big move, I should have at least some subtle hints. ”

No one thinks he's deliberately showing off his connections, because he's qualified to do so, and as a private equity firm that specializes in the upper echelons, Carlisle Investment Group has targeted celebrities in both the political and business worlds since its inception, such as former U.S. President George W. Bush, former Australian Prime Minister Bob ****, current British Prime Minister John Major, Philippine President Fidel Ramos, IBM President and CEO Louis Gerstner and other high-ranking officials and dignitaries are high-quality customers and major sources of funding for the company, and this unique market positioning has earned it a reputation as the "President's Club", so when it comes to the most well-informed person on the field, this Mr. Norris is really the best person on the scene.

Knowing that his economic base, connections, and information channels were not worth mentioning in front of these business elites, Xiao Yang did not answer his question directly: "I'm sorry, I'm just explaining a fact to you, and as for personal reasons, I'm afraid I have to ask Mr. Greenspan himself." ”

"But it doesn't make sense, does it?" Northwestern Bank's head of securities, Vess Howell, frowned: "As we all know, since the late 80s, due to the slowdown in domestic economic growth, the Federal Reserve has been adopting a relatively loose strategy to stimulate investment, consumption, and promote economic recovery and development, and the federal funds rate has been lowered from 8% in July 1990 to 3% in September 1992, so there has been no adjustment for 16 months, and the unemployment rate has been hovering around 5% for a long time in terms of the recent domestic economic situation. Sitting right at the golden point between economic contraction and inflation, there is no need to adjust the current interest rate, or at least make a big adjustment. ”

This remark also represents the views of most economists and investors in the United States, just as people often use "hawkish" and "****" to describe the hardliners and moderates within the administration, in Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, people's views on the issue of interest rate adjustment are also divided into hawks and ****, but for the time being, both hawkers and moderates believe that the inflation and employment situation in the United States is in a "delicate balance", and the Fed has sufficient reasons to maintain the current low level of interest rates.

However, they all ignore a rather crucial factor, a fact that will only become apparent to the world many years later, and that is the anti-inflationism that Greenspan has adhered to throughout his long career at the helm of the Federal Reserve.

While Wall Street investors have gone to great lengths to study his speeches and try to pick up any clues that would indicate their position, it is extremely difficult for the old pedant, who has always wrapped himself in a dark suit, obscured most of his face with a pair of old-fashioned black-rimmed glasses, and speaks slowly and ambiguously.

However, for Xiao Yang, the "prophet", it is not a secret that Greenspan will experience economic crises again and again in the next ten years, and the corresponding countermeasures formulated for this purpose, but he does not intend to make a deep analysis of the character and preferences of this "********" to everyone present, because if he does, the whole thing will lose its due drama, and then affect the importance and commercial value of his predictions, so in the face of Howell's question, He replied bliantly: "As I have stressed to Mr. Lesky, you are relying on market expectations based on past and present market performance and data, but I see the facts that are going to happen, so the purpose of my dinner today is to convey or peddle this fact to you, not to try to explain to you the origin of this fact." ”