At first glance, it seems to be beneficial to the bears, but it is actually aimed at the Thunder and other bears. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info

The upward momentum of the index is weakened, and the speed of the thunder's closing is limited, and the index is not up, although it means that the rally is not good, but it also correspondingly eliminates part of the downward space.

Long and short, rising and falling, what is needed is not only kinetic energy, but also space, which compresses the space, which is equivalent to eliminating the amount of energy.

In the current Korean capital market, the role of the regulator is not to be able to explode, that is, the regulator, compared to the profit-seeking long and short sides, the Korean authorities, as the manager, want stability, if it can be stable at the same time, it will be a perfect situation.

It's just that the long and short sides must complete the hedging, no matter what the information is, the big money actually has the right to interpret the information, the same data, bullish or bearish can find a basis.

"Just an attitude is not enough to stop the impact of capital!" People in the financial world understand this.

On October 14, ignoring the South Korean authorities' goal of maintaining stability, the South Korean capital market continued to hedge violently.

"Despite all the difficulties, South Korea managed to maintain its economic growth rate of 2.5 percent......

"The political situation will always be stable, the agreement will inevitably be signed, communication will definitely be restored, and keeping the economic data is to maintain the upward momentum."

The market was suddenly divided into three factions, capital hoped to hedge to decide the winner, the government's goal of maintaining stability was regarded as a fart, the daily trading volume of the South Korean stock market was rising, the amount of institutional seats was blowing out, and capital expressed an attitude of "standing aside" to the authorities.

The regulator is helpless, and the power gained by neutrality appears to be hesitant when it comes to going shirtless.

But the regulators are also powerful, and whichever side they are biased to be able to erect the flag at any time.

Seoul.

"Is the communication good?" In the Third International Financial Center, Mayor stared at Li Enjing with some nervousness.

"The stock market is rising, the won first appreciated and then fell back to depreciation, and the authorities have paid such a big price to stabilize the market, Mr. Kent thinks they will agree so easily?" Li Enjing's face was gloomy.

"It's better to go up than down, and we can promise not to withdraw funds." Mayor was a little weak-hearted.

"The Plaza Accord is a lesson from the past." Lee Eun-kyung complained, but the situation in the Korean market is not so serious now, it is just a mutual tilt between financial institutions, which is far from the predicament that Japan faced at that time.

Li Enjing was just brushing his sense of existence on behalf of Han Li and some chaebols in South Korea, and after a little consideration, he spoke: "Just like you said, it is better to go up than to fall, and everything is business as usual." ”

"That's good." Mayor waved his fist: "Our dear Chinese friends, this time, are you ready for defeat?" ”

There was laughter in the room.

was put on a thunderous side, and the American and South Korean institutions were full of resentment, and everyone originally planned well, and the capital tacit position was bullish, which heated up the Korean market, and then reaped profits with ability.

All of a sudden, Thunder announced that he was not playing, and he was going to jump more, what a fucking thing? This kind of counter-attack behavior really makes the bulls as disgusting as if they have eaten dead flies.

What's even more painful is that Mayor and others also thought that they had pit Thunder once, snatched food from the opponent's mouth, and grabbed a large number of chips, never thinking that what the other party threw over was not food, but the poop that they couldn't hold back and wanted to pull out.

When institutions form a tacit understanding, in an open market like South Korea, the position of the regulator is actually very embarrassing, and all the signals they release will be misinterpreted by the tacit understanding of capital.

But when big capital diverges, the role of regulators is very obvious.

South Korea's failure to revise its economic growth rate as planned is an attempt by the authorities to unleash their attitude, but as Lei Hao expected, he is unlikely to be supported by fundamentals, because ...... Rather than letting the index fall back, South Korea wants the KOSPI to rise, preferably steadily.

Even if a rise comes at the cost of a slightly excessive depreciation of the currency, it is better than falling back and causing chaos in the market.

Hong Kong Island, Thunder.

"Without thunderous selling, the index will not necessarily go up, and the South Korean stock market has deviated from reality." Lei Hao sat in the office, holding the phone and communicating with the other side: "Chairman Park, my suggestion is that even if you don't sell short, close your position, the won may not appreciate, but the KOSPI index will definitely fall." ”

"Mr. Lei, let's ......" Park Hae-wook's depressed voice came from the phone: "The time for us to enter the market is not very early, and besides, isn't it a little early to sell at this time?" The Thunder's closing cadence is not very fast. ”

"Two days, $10 billion, 10 trillion won." Lei Hao casually said a few numbers and asked, "This is not fast?" ”

"Uh, Mr. Lei, I have one more thing that I have to remind you, don't challenge the nerves of the Korean Financial Supervisory Service." Park Hae-wook said helplessly: "What should be declared, there must be no less, I regret to tell you that we can't exert too much influence." ”

"It doesn't dare to check!" Lei Hao said categorically: "How to check? Does Thunder have a violation? ”

Park Hae-wook was speechless, Thunder had too many violations, but he also knew that it was not good to talk about these things on the phone, so he had to be silent.

Lei Hao obviously understood very well, but he still spoke: "If you find out, it's negative, now they don't want to tear their faces, and after a while, they just can't tear their faces!" ”

In the financial circle, there are countless ways for regulators to investigate and punish a financial institution, but at the level of thunder, if you move it, it is equivalent to telling financial institutions around the world that "our market is unfair", which will deter the enthusiasm of other institutions to participate.

For example, China often does this, but South Korea's market attributes are different, they can't do it, and if they do it, the gains outweigh the losses.

In order to ensure the market attributes, they must also check both long and short, that is, the big short, and the Thunder is completely short at that time, what else do you need to be afraid of?

"Now it's a two-sided position, and when the hedging point arrives, we should sell all the bullish chips, and then expand the bearish exposure and push down the KOSPI index." Lei Hao thought silently in his heart.

The thunder is also moving in the established direction.

When large institutions close their positions, they do not simply sell their chips, but tend to establish opposite positions.

For example, if I have 100,000 stocks, I don't sell them directly, but find a way to hold the securities and sell the corresponding amount, and when the index reaches a key point, I will directly smash the sell order to contribute to the decline of the index.

The former stage can be understood as hedging liquidation, and the latter stage is not to establish a bearish position, but to sell the chips in your hand, so that the bearish risk exposure will be slowly exposed and gradually increase, and during this period, you are in a rhythm of successive selling, suppressing the corresponding index.

Therefore, Thunder's so-called liquidation of 10 billion is actually not much of the securities sold, more of it is buying a reverse bearish position, and the risk exposure is decreasing, but if you count the overall position of the bullish and bearish combined, it has been increasing.

Bilateral positions are prepared for unilateral positions.