On Hong Kong Island, the relevant persons in charge of several major institutions also received the request of the docking channel of Thunder Investment, and after reading the documents of the superiors, they acted according to the regulations. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info

However, everyone feels a kind of weirdness about the sudden addition of Thunder Investment.

The so-called inter-institutional market is a place that ordinary people cannot reach, and the funds operating here are huge, and the information is not the same as the secondary market.

For example, I have collected a lot of chips in my hand, and I need to do CDS, and I also want to do interest rate swaps, get some bond portfolios, etc., so who do I go to? It must be to find an agency with corresponding requirements to negotiate.

You need to short 100 million chips, I have to hold 100 million short positions to hedge the risk, so come on, let's talk about the terms of the contract, and then you can close the deal.

Because the business scope of large institutions is all over the world, their systems are running 24 hours a day, and relevant personnel are busy operating by phone and email, and various quotations and transaction intentions are emerging in an endless stream.

Lei Hao wants Nick and others to help connect channels, what do you want? If you want to be able to hear these voices, what is the price of the underlying coupon? What about the terms of the contract? How many chips are available for trading?

As long as the corresponding channels are connected, Lei Hao can know this information, plus the qualifications for entering the transaction and the variables of future information, and the profit margin will appear.

In Thunder Investment, there are not many people with this kind of experience, although the structure established by Su Yiwen is aimed at this, but suddenly come into contact with these things, everyone in the company still seems to be in a hurry, who should they give to when they get the information? What message to give? What messages can be recorded but not delivered? All need to learn.

Lei Hao also expected this situation, it just so happened that the current securities market is not much open, that is, it is in the gestation period, and everyone still has time to familiarize themselves with and learn these things.

A whole night passed, and there was no movement from Thunder Investment, Lei Hao led a group of people to flip through the documents in the conference room, analyzing the information delivered by various institutions and sporadic bulk transaction intentions.

Lei Hao can't figure out the issue of interest rates, what he can know is that Greece will put the issue of whether to accept EU conditions to a referendum, and there is a de facto default on the 1st, so a very simple conclusion comes out.

The probability of bankruptcy of the Greek government increases, the probability of debt default increases, the probability of Brexit increases, CDS will rise, the global, especially European securities markets will fall, the euro will depreciate, and the price of gold will rise...... A series of chain reactions will definitely occur.

Lei Hao doesn't know the results of the referendum yet, but he has studied at the elite level for half a year, and he can analyze that the old scoundrel of Greece is bluffing, and the relevant long and short positions have long been almost established by large institutions.

"Profit only exists in time difference and probability, and the end result is likely to be a compromise between the two parties, but until the compromise, these things have a big impact on the market."

Looking at the documents in his hand, Lei Hao silently thought in his heart: "Almost all large institutions feel that the result has been decided, but the initiation of a referendum and the de facto default will increase the variables, for example, the probability of getting the result is 90%, and after these two things occur, the probability will drop to 80% or 70%, and the price space created by the two variables is profit." ”

"It's just that there must be a follow-up to this matter, how can I control my position? If I don't wait for the corresponding future information, do I have to guarantee the ability to exit quickly, and where is the person who takes the order? ”

"CDS in the hands of Goldman Sachs...... It's eye-popping. ”

More than ten years ago, Goldman Sachs helped to do the accounts when Greece entered Europe, but after Goldman Sachs made money, he felt that the crisis would break out sooner or later, so he began to lay out and bet on CDS with major institutions.

Lei Hao is very envious of this kind of operation, but he also has self-knowledge, and now Lei Ting Investment wants to be a rival with a big institution, and then lay out for more than ten years? It's just a joke.

Therefore, others make a lot of money, and you can make a little "small money" during the incident.

"Ray, the BP is too high, I personally suggest that we don't do CDS." Leo looked at a lot of documents, his brow furrowed, and his words attracted the attention of others.

"I'd like to try it." Lei Hao replied calmly.

It's already the morning of the 26th, and it should be early hours on the European side, and it's still asleep.

The BP of CDS is also very easy to understand, and in the simplest and crude way, BP is the cost of the formation of default probability for CDS.

For example, if there is a 100 million bond and the probability of default is 10%, BP is 1000, that is, the corresponding standard of 1 BP is the probability of 1 in 10,000.

100 million bonds with a default probability of 10%, you want to buy CDS, you have to give 10 million, and then when it defaults, you get 100 million, earn 10 times, if its default probability rises to 20%, then you find someone to take over, you can earn 10 million, or...... If you think 9.99 million is acceptable, just earn this part of the money.

This is actually the same as stocks, buying at a low price, increasing the probability leads to an increase in price, and selling at a high price.

What Lei Hao seeks is to make a profit when the probability of default rises.

Knowing some information in advance, Lei Hao and other market participants' cognition is different, gambling is everywhere, and everything can also participate.

But Leo and others also belong to the concept of "other market players", and they don't see any profit margin in it.

List? It has long been bought.

Market? The various variables that arise in the debt crisis have long been expressed through the price of the underlying security, and there is not much room for manipulation.

"Wray, de facto default is possible, but it is not ruled out that Greece will accept the terms offered by the EU, and if they get the funds to repay the loans due, the stock market will rise and the euro will appreciate back......," Leo continued.

"I think he's going to pay off, Leo, would you be interested in gambling again?" Lei Hao smiled and looked at Leo.

The atmosphere in the conference room was much more relaxed, and the gambling game between Lei Hao and Leo was the gossip of these people after dinner, and they all knew about it and thought it was quite interesting.

"It's not fair, your opinion, that the probability of achieving is more than 50%." Leo shrugged his shoulders and said.

"So, we're on the same front." Lei Hao blinked his eyes and said with a smile: "The first few times we were on the side of the small probability, and now, the probability of us winning is close to 70%, what are you worried about?" ”

"Even if there is a de facto default, Greece and the EU will eventually compromise, as can be seen from the BP figures." Xia Yibei interjected and said: "We need to pay attention to our positions, and it is very likely that the entry price is high and the exit price is low." ”

"It's okay, as long as the profits are enough, those big institutions will definitely be able to find matchmakers." Lei Hao is not too worried about this problem.

Large institutions will all try to do less exposure, only matchmaking, they take large orders, and small institutions to trade, long here, short there, match on both sides, the spread is profit, so as long as the price given by Lei Hao is appropriate, so many financial institutions in the world, the demand will definitely fill the appetite of Thunder Investment.

On Monday the 26th, at 8 a.m., another trading day began. (To be continued.) )