Talk about it now? Lei Hao sat down, did not speak, and fell into thought. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info

After two changes, the company's investment has now made a lot of paper profits, and with the current profit margin, it is acceptable to get the original required contract.

But is that enough? What will happen to the market outlook?

"The referendum must have passed." Lei Hao said a word tentatively, and saw a depressed expression flashing on the faces of several people in Nick, and he knew that he had analyzed it correctly.

The current situation in Greece is that the people are not willing to continue to reduce welfare, but there are also some people who would rather reduce benefits than go bankrupt in the country's credit, so the result of the referendum is conceivable, and it is very likely to pass, but the proportion of people who support and oppose it is also very important.

"Our internal analysis feels that there will be close to 60% of the votes against, that is, 60% of the people in the vote are unwilling to accept the conditions given by the EU." Nick did not hide it, made a frank appearance, and said: "However, it does not mean that these six adults support Greece to declare bankruptcy. ”

"The Greeks played a trick," John of Standard Chartered said with a wry smile next to him, "and the option they gave was whether to accept the EU's offer or not, not whether to go bankrupt or leave the EU." ”

"So, the outcome of the referendum can be predicted." HSBC's David said: "What is more important to the market is the proportion of votes, and if there are too many votes against, it means that the risk of bankruptcy and Brexit is increased. ”

"At the moment, the variables given by Prudential are 20% probability of bankruptcy, the forecast of negative votes is close but less than 60%, and the probability of Brexit is very low, but the possibility has emerged." Feng Ruoting's eyes fluttered, and there was a hint of flattery in her smile.

Lei Hao didn't react, he has always been a careerist, when he was an account manager, he wanted to become a project host, create Thunder Investment, and have future information, he wanted more things.

"In other words, when is my best time to liquidate now?" Lei Hao smiled, swept his gaze over these people, and all he got was a seemingly sincere nod.

Nick and others really think that Lei Hao should close the position, in two days, the profit of 30 million US dollars, looking at the world, is a bullish number, enough for Thunder Investment to set up a banner in the early stage.

Lei Hao was a little hesitant, he didn't know the specific number of the referendum, but he knew that Greece had a de facto default, but the market had already digested the variable of de facto default, and now the closest profit margin appeared on the referendum result.

55% to 60%, the market volatility will not be drastic, more than 60%, every percentage point will make Thunder Investment profitable.

But it's still the same sentence, Lei Hao doesn't know the specific result of the referendum!

"Before the referendum results come out, we can help Thunder Investment complete the liquidation work." Nick seems to have the highest status among the four, and he is always the first to approach Lei Hao.

The other three don't have much of an opinion either, and they are well aware that Nick and Lei Hao have more in common because they are both leaders in the investment field.

"I don't want to close the position." Lei Hao slowly breathed a sigh of relief, let go of the hesitation in his heart, raised his head, his eyes seemed to be glowing, and repeated: "I don't want to close the position now!" ”

"Ray? If your position is too high and you close it one day later, it means that you have the probability of incurring more closing costs. Nick was really kind enough to remind this time, saying: "We can give Thunder Investment A-level institutional treatment now, but if all the variables are gone, then many times, you can't enjoy this order." ”

"Believeme, I'm sincere." Nick really wants to be friends with Lei Hao now, and his words are full of sincerity.

There is also a biological chain in the financial circle, and there are differences in the treatment given by large institutions, and Thunder Investment will not get A-level treatment, but Lei Hao's situation is a little different this time, and Nick and others have also spread it out.

"I don't feel like this is the end of the matter, Greece will have a de facto default and vote against...... It shouldn't be just sixty percent. Lei Hao looked directly at Nick and said in a firm tone.

This time, Lei Hao rarely followed his feelings, he actually didn't know the results of the referendum, and the results analyzed from the data were indeed close to 60%, but Lei Hao felt that it was more than that.

"Even if I guess wrong, or even if the referendum doesn't pass, I'm just giving back the part I earned, and if the numbers are as the analysis says, I only need to spend some more."

Lei Hao seemed to be talking to himself, and as if comforting himself, his tone gradually changed from flat and straightforward to firm: "But if the number is 60% higher, I will receive more." ”

"But the probability is lower, calculated, it's still that situation, the greater the risk, the higher the return, one million has a 10% chance of becoming 10 million, and there is a 90% chance of losing 100,000." Nick replied simply.

"I don't think the stakes are as high as you say." Lei Hao shook his head, he couldn't grasp the flash of aura in his heart.

The analysis of large institutions and the reaction of the market fully reflect the existing variables, but there is something wrong, but Lei Hao can't capture the naughty entry point.

"I reserve my opinion." Nick smiled, then said, "So, can we talk about our cooperation now?" ”

"Wait, I still have something to figure out." Lei Hao also spread out and said: "I think Thunder Investment may be able to get better treatment, for example...... Raise our institutional pay a little bit and something. ”

"It's impossible, the scale of Thunder's investment is too small." This time it was HSBC David who spoke, he looked at Su Yiwen and said, "Even if Su is here, Thunder Investment will not get higher institutional treatment." ”

"Unless the EU drags Greece to die together! Cluck. Feng Ruoting made a joke next to her.

Lei Hao's mind was clicking, and he finally found that naughty entry point.

Or the future information, those two future information.

"The de facto default has been caused, and you don't need to look at the referendum results to know that the old man must still be the old man......"

"If I were a creditor and I would have pushed Greece to Brexit, damn it, I would die together."

These two pieces of information don't seem to be inappropriate, they just reveal the variables that Lei Hao has now run out, but they give Lei Hao inspiration.

The second piece of information exploded with foul language, and more importantly, the person who said this sentence was a person from the Xia Yibei team of Yangcheng Head Office, who has always been steady, and it seems that the situation has changed a little bit.

For Lei Hao, the more intense the development process, the better, because it means that the risk is being pushed up, and the more profit he makes, so ...... Come on, old man.

"Is that where the feeling comes from?" Lei Hao smiled bitterly in his heart, it was the first time for him to invest based on his feelings, rather than accurate predictions based on data and future information, so he was inevitably a little weak.

What should I do if I guess wrong? This thought just flashed through Lei Hao's mind, and another thing came to mind.

No, the variables implied by this information should also be taken into account, and the two sides should be hedged, in fact, there is not much difference between closing a position and leaving the market and holding a wait-and-see position.

Since there is not much difference, then ...... What's the point of taking a gamble? The belief in Lei Hao's eyes gradually became firm. (To be continued.) )