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"This problem is too big, let's just find an angle. www.biquge.info As I said earlier, Ahri is in terms of e-commerce, and the biggest physical gap between Ahri and us is in supplier and logistics management, so I will pick the point of logistics. ”

Gu Mojie talked eloquently,

"What we do is high-quality and customized, with a small volume and little logistics pressure. The trading of virtual items is completely devoid of logistics. Ahri's advantages in logistics management are clear.

Then, we break down the general advantage of logistics and divide it into two parts - the first is the bulk logistics in the front section, automobile and rail transportation, air and sea transportation, and then the distribution in the back section, the 'last three kilometers'.

Judging from the current industry trend, entering and controlling some of the resources of the front logistics company, there is little value, the entire logistics industry will have a historic setback, and there is no need to enter the back industry, Ahri has made a major investment in the form of the next generation of automatic distribution, and we are now completely starting from scratch is not worth it. ”

At this point, he stopped to take a sip of coffee and wait for those who do not know enough about the trends of the AI era to digest it.

Sure enough, Gu Yong jumped out the first one to express his incredibleness.

"Is bulk logistics likely to shrink in the next few years? It can't be. E-commerce is a typical remote shopping, the rise of e-commerce is of course conducive to the growth of the logistics industry, why will bulk logistics shrink? It's not scientific. ”

The others didn't say it, but their expressions all supported this point of view, only Lei Jun, who had dealt with smart hardware a lot over the years, fell into deep thought and did not express his opinion immediately.

Yes, after all, Ma Feng's Taobao and Tmall have expanded their territory, and if it is said that it has killed 1 million physical stores, eliminated 5 million physical store salespeople and 2 million jobs of industrial workers with low resource scheduling efficiency, then some people still believe it.

However, Ma Feng's biggest counterattack against the outside world's accusation of "Taobao eliminates social employment" over the years is that "although Taobao has eliminated 5 million physical store employees, it has also created 2 million Taobao shopkeepers, millions of courier brothers, hundreds of thousands of truck drivers and crews, and indirectly helped the country repay tens of billions of high-speed rail loans".

"Technology is not about eliminating human work, it is just about reorganizing human work more efficiently."

Now suddenly talking about the next form of e-commerce, even these hardcore fans it has supported have to turn against each other, how can people with a little common sense not be shocked.

Everyone looked eagerly, hoping that Gu Mojie could give an explanation for his cautionary words.

"Actually, it's very simple, let's think about it, what impact will the future of the 'low-cost reprogramming industrial robot' that Hatsune Intelligent has been laying out in the past two years - we are in the park of Jiangdong Industrial Park, and after the Spring Festival, the 18-month construction period has been completed, and some factories can be put into normal use;

In the past two years, we have been investing in R&D without stopping, and we have been working on small-scale trial production, start-up for user testing, and deepening of deep learning data. By the beginning of 2013, it will definitely be ready for mass production and launch a new generation of low-cost reprogramming industrial robots. Think about it, what impact will this kind of thing have on global logistics at that time? ”

Everyone looked at each other, and finally Lei Jun finally reacted.

"It will shrink a large number of processing and entrepot trade logistics in the world!"

"What?" Everyone was incredulous, not understanding why Lei Jun suddenly jumped to the same position as the boss.

Lei Jun looked suddenly bright, and said confidently:

"The reason is very simple, the current process of globalization, the biggest feature is that countries with high labor costs, such as the United States, have shifted their manufacturing to developing countries, mainly to China, and now the wages of Chinese workers have begun to rise, and they have further moved to Southeast Asia and South Asia. However, the quality of workers there and the degree of hard-working are still a bit lacking, so the manufacturing industry with a little bit of technology content is still left in China. ”

Speaking of which, everyone understands that the above is just a cliché.

However, Lei Jun's words changed.

"However, we must see clearly the reason for this transfer -- it is only because of the high labor cost of the United States and other countries that they are transferred. In terms of land rent, production raw materials and other resource prices, the United States is cheaper than China.

The United States is rich in mineral deposits, and the amount of iron ore and crude oil that needs to be shipped abroad is very small, and the logistics cost of raw materials is low, so the price of raw materials is also low. At the same time, their available land is larger than China's, with a population of only 300 million, so the price of cabbage is also more. Labor costs are the only factor that leads to the outflow of U.S. manufacturing, and as long as this factor is resolved, U.S. manufacturing will return instantly.

So, after the original traditional industrial robots, why did the manufacturing industry not return? Supposedly, the number of workers needed in the factory has been greatly reduced, and this labor cost should be insignificant. ”

Why? Everyone's thoughts couldn't help but follow Lei Jun's question.

"Because traditional industrial robots still need a large number of PL engineers to do production line debugging! Whether it is out of the environmental conditions or the process needs to be fine-tuned, it is not possible to be completely unattended. So there is still a need for workers. oo Ye Weilun finally grasped a point, and he didn't know if what he said was right, and his eyes were full of inquiry after he finished speaking.

"That's right, but the new generation of industrial robots we want to provide will change that." Gu Mojie saw the other party's wavering eyes, and said encouragingly:

"In the future, workers will still want it, but we will see a spectacle that is unimaginable now - it may be that in China, there will be some small entrepreneurs who focus on production line commissioning, and they will buy a few Hatsune Intelligence's easy-to-reprogram industrial robots. Then they do not produce any goods, but only provide remote technical support to foreign business owners who use similar industrial robots.

The factory of the American capitalist needs a new process production line, and the Chinese commissioning service solution provider in China copies the other party's scenario model for robot training, strictly following the other party's scenario parameters. Then form a package of the deep learning results, and send the robot training results to the American capitalists who need them.

When there is a temporary defect in the other party's production line, the remote monitoring here will immediately start to simulate and adjust the data after obtaining the data, and feed back the robot data.

Then, we have the potential to see a complete physical decoupling between the line engineers and the factory. Moreover, production line engineers no longer have to catch planes everywhere to go to the factory to see the situation and take over the business. With just a few entrepreneurs who specialize in this piece of overall service solutions, a large number of factory problems can be solved.

At that point, it is completely possible to achieve 'the physical ** of the factory in the United States, the industrial robots and workers employed by the factory in China or other countries with low labor costs and low human rights security'.

If such a world is formed, will Australians still need to transport the iron ore used to produce Yiwu small commodities to Hujiang, from Baosteel to steel, and then to Yiwu for production and processing, and then to consumer countries? No need. All the processing logistics formed by taking advantage of low labor costs will shrink sharply. In the future, it is only necessary to transport the raw materials directly to the consumption center, where there will be local factories for automatic production, and the fruits of labor at low labor costs only need to be transported to the world at zero cost by network cable - oh, it may require a little electricity bill. ”

Everyone was dumbfounded.

Gu Mojie didn't plan to let it go, and continued to destroy everyone's inherent cognition.

"I assert that from next year, the beginning of 2012. Within 3 years, the inflection point of the total volume of global bulk shipping logistics will come, and within 5 years, there will be a wave of bankruptcy of shipping giants in countries and regions with outstanding export-oriented economies for processing. Within 10 years, the total global shipping volume will decline by 20%, and the forward may be 30%~40% -

Of course, the development of the least developed countries is not taken into account here, and if Ah San can be organized into the next China, then the facts may not be as violent as I judge, but the trend will not be wrong. In addition, some shipping logistics will be transferred to railway transportation due to the pursuit of timeliness in the future, which is not within the scope of our discussion. ”

In fact, even if there is no Gu Mojie, just relying on people like Ma Feng and Rethink-Roboti to promote, this matter will only happen a few years later.

Later, in 2016, China and South Korea, the world's largest shipbuilding countries, suffered a heavy setback in shipbuilding and shipping. Hanjin Shipping, a subsidiary of Hyundai Group, South Korea's largest shipping company, went bankrupt. Qianjiang Shipping, the largest maritime state-owned enterprise in Qianjiang Province, where Ma Feng is located, also went bankrupt.

The wave of bankruptcies of shipping companies will focus on export-oriented economic areas with processing and export-oriented materials. And those ores, coal, crude oil, timber, grain and other bulk resource-based transportation, may be able to escape the catastrophe - for example, China is short of crude oil and needs to import grain, and the logistics of these things will not be destroyed by the intelligent era. However, importing raw materials from other people's homes and selling them back to the other party will definitely be gradually destroyed by intelligent production.

Gu Mojie didn't need to predict and predict at all, because the work of those seafarers and shipwrights around the world was killed by his own hands.

He is the scalpel of mankind, helping to accelerate the evolution of human social structure and waking up people who have no future competitiveness.

Everyone sighed for a long time before they gradually calmed down.

The people who can sit here are all ruthless. But this kind of thing of killing millions of jobs in a blink of an eye is still embarrassing to think about.

Gu Mojie waited for everyone to finish sighing, and was ready to add some more fierce material.

"Do you think the world can't understand it? The rest is even more incomprehensible. I just said that the first part of the logistics industry is not worth entering, and now let's talk about the back section, that is, the 'last 3 kilometers' - now 5 million courier brothers praise Ma Feng as a savior, and in the next three to five years, maybe they will be the savior to cook rabbits and dead dogs. ”

What the? Don't you even let go of the executioner who helped kill the salesman of the physical store? (To be continued.) )