Chapter 106 The fate of the incomplete industrial chain
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4G mobile phones, assisted driving smart cars, global navigation, global maps......
Hatsune is becoming more and more deeply accumulated, and as the link of smart cars is put into the market, it is becoming more and more sticky.
In another time and space, Boss Jia, who is a PPT maniac and a mouth cannon maniac, invented the term "ecological anti".
In Boss Jia's mouth, that's.
But here in Gu Mojie in this time and space, it was really done, and when Gu Mojie was doing it, he was quite low-key, and he didn't bother to blow the kind of B that was too low.
The "Chuxin-3" Porsche limited edition customized mobile phone, there are only 3,000 units in the world throughout the year, which is exactly the same as the production of the 918Spyder supercar.
In many circles that provide pretending to be coercive, they even think that getting a new mobile phone of this kind is no less than a high-level centurion black gold card - that is a symbol of aristocratic accumulation.
However, the non-customized version can also win a limited purchase opportunity by buying a regular version of Hatsune Porsche's smart electric car. So theoretically, the global shipment of the non-customized version can reach about 20 times that of the customized version - that is, more than 60,000 units worldwide throughout the year.
All of a sudden, almost every owner who can afford to spend at least two or three hundred thousand euros on a Hatsune Porsche smart tram has bought a corresponding mobile phone.
Even if this machine with an 18-carat champagne gold shell has a price tag of 10,800 euros and the processing performance is not much better than the ordinary version of the "Chuxin-3", no one hesitates. (Of course, the owner's intelligent identification sensor, software and mobile phone remote control function are still available)
On the whole planet, find 60,000 rich people who can afford to buy a mobile phone for 10,000 euros a year. Not much at all. There are more billionaires in the world.
Especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, a bunch of oil dogs, even if the global oil price has plummeted by two-thirds, they are still happy.
iPhone or something is already a sling machine in the eyes of the top tycoons, and Apple's top brand effect, with the impact of this wave, is becoming more and more crumbling.
……
With the tide of the Federal Reserve's QE, the world's high-tech industry is getting unprecedented amounts of money.
Since the second half of 2013, even those NASDAQ-listed companies that have already IPOed and have not yet issued new shares have begun to expand frantically.
After judging the hot money situation in the next few years, Zuckerberg reached a big deal with Elon Musk of X-Space, and decided to try several network satellites in advance within two years at the cost of $200 million a satellite - that is, the purpose of such satellites is to provide Internet services from space to the ground.
This phase of the plan is expected to be completed by the end of 2015.
When the technology matures, Zach will re-evaluate in 2016 and sign new contracts to provide larger orders. 【】
Zuckerberg's first step in this plan is to use the first few satellites to provide 4G wireless internet in Tanzania and Uganda in Central Africa.
(Note: In fact, it should be counted as "East Africa", and here it is called "Central Africa", mainly from the latitude.) That is, there is no distinction between east and west, only between north and south. This is related to the technical characteristics of Internet satellites, which will be explained in more detail later. )
Zuckerberg's purpose in doing this is naturally out of his sense of crisis.
Because all the places on the earth that have popularized the Internet will basically be divided between "First Meeting" and Facebook within two years.
In the case of a large amount of QE funds from the Federal Reserve flowing into the high-tech industry, and some of them flowing into social networks, anyone can predict that the number of users will exceed 1 billion this year, and Facebook is not much closer. It won't be long before the already online market is completely penetrated.
Zuckerberg can only focus on the blank world where there is no Internet today. And he knows that social networks are a very "preconceived" thing, and whoever becomes the pioneer of the "****" in that market will have a high probability of occupying this market.
Although an average of $200 million a satellite is not cost-effective, if it can break the "place" of the social network of some backward African countries and plant some seeds, then the deal is still cost-effective.
The words are not rough.
……
A few days after the celebration party where the Hatsune Porsche smart car ran the world record at the New North Circuit, the top management of the Hatsune circle basically heard about Zuckerberg's new move.
Then naturally someone blew the wind in Gu Mojie's ears, especially many people who don't understand hardware, and it is easy to be uncalm under the infection of capital fanaticism. I think that what Zuckerberg did, Hatsune should also do it quickly, how can it be preempted.
Today's Hatsune Group is much larger than Facebook. If you wait for Hatsune Network Technology to go public in the fourth quarter, maybe Hatsune Network Technology alone will be able to top Facebook.
However, Gu Mojie was always unmoved, he only insisted on his own heart, and only listened to the keen views of the most professionals in the field.
"Hmph, just with an 'integrator' like Elon Musk, he knows a fart satellite Internet, and his eyes are high."
For today's Silicon Valley-style scientific research and innovation capabilities, Gu Mojie has a deep feeling.
Elon Musk looks very good, Tesla also does unmanned vehicles, and X-Space recyclable rockets are also involved, but in fact, Musk's company is only the final system integrator.
The flat structure of scientific research in the Internet era has been fully exerted in Musk's group. In fact, Musk's company has only mastered an integrated technology, and he does not have the core technology of each component, he can only be responsible for setting indicators and standards, and letting the outsourced technology developers help him complete it.
This kind of thing, in a low-scale custom industry — for example, Tesla, which sells less than 100,000 cars a year — can be completely played with without systemic risk.
But if you want to further enter large-scale production, as a big engineering practice, the Americans are still almost ready.
In this day and age, Americans no longer have the frontier of technology and engineering at the same time – the frontier of technology is still in the United States. The frontier of engineering has shifted to China.
Without the vast industrial base of Shenzhen, or without TSMC, Americans would not even be able to build an iPhone.
And Zach underestimated the rashness of Internet satellites, which was too optimistic in Gu Mojie's opinion.
In terms of communication, the most vocal person on the earth today is, of course, Ren Zhengren, the president of Xia Wei Technology.
He didn't even say that Internet satellites are suitable for commercialization, and Elon Musk is a fart.
Unbelief? If you don't believe it, just look at how the American Cisco was beaten by Mr. Ren and couldn't take care of himself.
If Cisco's examples are not enough, there are also Alcatel, Ericsson...... At that time, the world's four major communication base station equipment giants were not all beaten by Xia Wei and couldn't take care of themselves.
Therefore, Gu Mojie only believes in Ren Lao's opinion on this issue.
"Internet satellites are a big hole at the moment. I won't say whether this thing will work or not, I'll give you a statistic, and you can judge for yourself. ”
When Gu Mojie asked Ren Lao to go to Jiangnan to drink tea and talk about things, Ren Lao said so.
"For example, if I say that the Internet satellite will definitely lose, that is not right. But this thing has big limitations. First of all, unless Zuckerberg chooses to use satellites to fill the entire planet with Internet needs, he will certainly only be able to choose certain geographical locations to provide Internet services until then — as far as I can tell, it seems to be a matter of satellite orbits. ”
Ren Lao is an expert in communications, and he doesn't understand the attribute of "satellite" very well, so he only mentions it slightly.
But Gu Mojie himself knows these common senses.
Because he has invested in the Beidou navigation system.
Why did Beidou Navigation have 3 more early positioning stars than the GPS system? This principle is the same as the location of Zuckerberg and Elon Musk's Internet satellite service area today.
"I know that, because if an Internet satellite is going to provide network services to an area, it has to operate in an approximate geostationary orbit close to the equator. Otherwise, satellites in low orbit will circle the earth in two or three hours, and half an hour ago they will be over Europe, and a little later over Africa, how can they provide network services?
Only a 'geostationary middle orbit' similar to the three early navigation stars of Beidou Navigation can provide local network services if it orbits around the figure 8 at a relatively fixed latitude. ”
Gu Mojie's words are generally incomprehensible to laymen, but if you only translate the conclusion, it is easy to understand:
The thing that Zuckerberg and Elon Musk are talking about can only serve countries at low latitudes near the equator.
If you take a look at the world map, only Southeast Asia, southern India, Central Africa, and Venezuela and Colombia in South America meet this criterion.
Therefore, Zuckerberg chose Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya in eastern Central Africa as test fields for the first phase of the pilot. That's all dictated by the laws of physics.
Ren Lao nodded, indicating that it was Gu Mojie who said that.
"Then I'll talk about communications. With the current technology, let's put it this way: if the population density per square kilometer is more than 20 people, or if the number of mobile phone/network users is more than 10, then there is no need to think about it, it must be more cost-effective to build a base station on the ground to build a tower.
But if there are only a few expeditions, tour groups, and primitive tribes within a thousand miles of the East African savannah, such as the Kenyan Nature Reserve, then satellites will have an advantage.
The maximum number of users that can be accommodated on a satellite will not exceed 20 times that of a ground base station, but the current cost of launching a satellite is at least 600 times that of a ground tower.
Therefore, unless the cost of satellite launch is reduced by 30 times in the future, or the satellite carrying capacity is greatly increased after entering the 5G era, it is likely that the cost of satellite Internet will be lower than that of terrestrial tower base stations in any case.
The only advantage of satellites at present is that in some places where the user population is sparse, the load of the tower cannot even be fed by one-30th, or even far below this number, so satellites can be used as supplementary signals. ”
Gu Mojie immediately understood this truth.
With the same construction cost, the advantage of ground tower base stations is that the number of users that can be supported by unit capital investment far exceeds that of satellites - this figure is at least 30 times higher.
But satellites have the advantage of being thousands of kilometers high and can cover a wide area.
In the East African savannahs of Kenya and Tanzania, where there may be only 100,000 people in need of Wi-Fi or Wi-Fi in hundreds of thousands of square kilometers, Zuckerberg's satellites are useful.
But if it were moved to South India at the same latitude, with the vast population density of the three countries, Zuckerberg would definitely lose all his pants.
To put it bluntly, Zuckerberg is just taking a small amount of financial risks, spending hundreds of millions of dollars to break a backward African country that has never had an Internet and let his Facebook preconceived.
Even if Gu Mojie wants to enclose land in a blank space with almost no Internet, he is not willing to use satellites.
He would rather consider other compromises, such as seeking cooperation with high-altitude balloon suppliers, as Google did, investing in some lightweight, high-stability balloon research and development projects, and making a "balloon wifi" or something.
After all, the population density of the market that Gu Mojie will penetrate next is definitely much denser than Zuckerberg's target market.
In a place like the East African savannah, Gu Mojie can't look down on it for the time being.
To be a man, you must always bite the bullet and recognize what you need, and you can't blindly follow the trend.
And compared with Zuckerberg, Gu Mojie has a greater advantage in this aspect.
Zuckerberg and Elon Musk are both blind to the base station hardware in the field of communications.
No matter how hard they try on "system integration", there is one problem that they can't change.
That is: what standards Qualcomm provides, Zach and Musk can only use them obediently and directly. How to define, how to code, and what the capacity characteristics of base stations in the 4G era are, Zach has no say at all.
He can only take the ready-made 4G base station equipment, and then match it with satellites and rockets......
For a large project that can only be piloted for at least 2 years, and it is not known that it will be used in batches after a few years, this is really a bit speculative and canceled.
By the time Zack's satellite was put into trial operation, the world had entered the 4G era for three or four years. By the time he arrives in batches, it may have been 4G for six or seven years.
Compared with people who do business, Zach is still more storytelling in this matter.
And Gu Mojie can sit down and talk directly with Ren Lao.
"Ren Lao, now in the 4G era, Xia Wei and Qualcomm are almost on an equal footing, at most half a step away. What do you think the base station in the future 5G era should be, and what kind of platform can maximize efficiency? ”
Ren Lao immediately understood Gu Mojie's ambitions.
This is good, at least it shows that Gu Mojie has no ambition in terms of the underlying hardware and communication standards of communication.
He is a person who wants to give full play to the application of communication, and the cornerstone of communication standards below will still cooperate with Xia Wei for a long time.
Gu Mojie, the "giant ship of friendship", is much stronger than Zach and Musk's boat.
Moreover, because Gu Mojie matched the cooperation between Xia Wei and Wanwan Home VIA Electronics in advance, the degree to which Xia Wei lagged behind Qualcomm in the 4G era has been greatly reduced.
Even in the history of parallel time and space, without the appearance of Gu Mojie, Xia Wei's Ren Lao also snatched half of the coding standards from Qualcomm at the standard customization conference.
Now with the variable of Gu Mojie, and with Xia Wei's progress in the accumulation of basic communication standard patents one or two years in advance, it will obviously be even more limitless at that time.
"Rest assured, the standards of the 5G era will definitely not be set by Qualcomm." When Ren Lao and Gu Mojie said this, they were full of confidence.
Zuckerberg didn't even know this, how could he fight Gu Mojie.
(It's another chapter of more than 4,000 words, and that's not all, there is still a break today.) Everyone wait for me to get off work in the afternoon, and then I'm going to finish the book anyway, so I don't have to save up to live>_