Why did Diorama Pictures go bankrupt? Why was DreamWorks being split? Why was New Line Pictures acquired? Why did Lionsgate enter a development bottleneck?

The reason is the same: without the backing of huge funds, once the continuous work fails, the capital chain will be broken. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 infoThis is also the fundamental reason why independent film companies have never been able to become strong, and Wall Street, hidden behind Hollywood, is the real chess player.

But again, why did DreamWorks survive for 10 years? Why did MGM hold out for more than half a century before going out of business? Why was New Line Pictures once among the top eight film companies? Why did Lionsgate become the seventh biggest player in the game?

The reason is the same: a steady stream of good, good, and profitable works. This is why independent film companies are like a spring breeze blowing and growing again, even if the big six film companies control more than 70% or even 80% of the market, small and medium-sized companies outside of them are still a force to be reckoned with in the whole of Hollywood.

The advantage of Chaos Pictures is that they own Lance, and four consecutive productions have been profitable and thriving; The disadvantage of Chaos Pictures is that they do not have original accumulation, and they only complete the accumulation through film works, and it is almost impossible to get one step closer.

The inspiration that flashed in Lance's mind just now was not Marvel Comics, but the original accumulation of speed-up methods. Ian mentions the idea of Chaos Pictures acquiring New Market Pictures, which makes Lance realize for the first time that Chaos Pictures now has a certain amount of accumulation, and if he can accurately grasp the opportunity, then it is not impossible to accelerate the original accumulation.

It's like betting on the European Cup.

"Ian, what do you think of real estate right now?" Lance didn't answer Gawain's question, but instead asked another question that didn't matter.

Ian frowned slightly, slightly confused, but replied, "Good." No, it should be said that it is a boom. If we had bought this villa one month later, the price would have risen by 15 percent. ”

Lance looked up at the tranquil villa and nodded his chin slightly, "But what if I say that the real estate market is going to collapse soon?" ”

Don't talk about Ian, even Theo showed a surprised expression, Gawain's eyes widened, and he said hesitantly, "Lance, are you sure you're not talking nonsense?" ”

This made Lance chuckle, and he couldn't blame Gawain for questioning, because in history, only four groups of people had seen the truth about this. Among so many financial talents in the United States and even the world, only four groups of people have seen through the truth.

In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, and the real estate bubble evaporated overnight, even causing Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, to lose its armor and have to file for bankruptcy protection. The financial crisis not only hit the United States hard, but also the global economy regressed, so much so that Europe and Japan had to join forces with the US government to bail out the market. Even so, this has become the most serious and tragic financial crisis since the "Great Depression" in the United States in the thirties of the twentieth century, and the global financial system has been greatly affected, including China/China.

Before being reborn, Lance watched a movie at the American Film Institute Film Festival, "The Big Short", explaining the whole process in simple terms, in addition, movies such as "Prison and Self-Theft", "Too Big to Fail", and "Profit Storm" also tell the crisis from different angles.

To put it simply, everyone thinks that real estate is booming, but there are four groups of people who think that real estate is going to collapse and buy insurance - if real estate is doing well, they must continue to invest money and continue to "insure"; But once the real estate crashes, they will be paid out and win huge profits.

In the last life, four groups of people found signs of imminent collapse of real estate around 2005 and 2006, so they began to "insure", but real estate was very strong, so they had to keep betting, like being tied to a high-speed train, either crushed to pieces, or gritted their teeth. But in the end, they succeeded, and in August 2007, the housing bubble appeared, it collapsed, the world wailed, and they made a lot of money, and Michael Burry, the first to smell the truth, won more than 500 percent.

Lance hopes to quickly complete the original accumulation through this global financial crisis, and win enough voice for Chaos Pictures in the way of Wall Street.

Lance knew that his knowledge was limited, and it was tantamount to a fantasy to explain the entire subprime mortgage crisis, so he asked Ian to explain the current mortgage system in the United States, and then Lance explained it.

To put it simply, everyone needs a loan to buy a house, but the amount of a single loan is too small, and the risk range is large, so some people think of bundling a batch of housing loan claims together as bonds and selling them to others - such as financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, and large banks such as Deutsche Bank, such scale reduces transaction costs and diversifies risks, which is called MBS.

Gradually, loans with good credit were packaged and sold, so they set their sights on loans with bad credit. In order to sell the MBS of non-performing loans, smart bankers invented CDO, which is to package loans with bad credit into CDOs, and then divide them into two forms of debt, with low interest rate A and high interest rate B.

In order to ensure the sale of B-rated creditor's rights, major banks and financial institutions guarantee their own, and then find a rating agency to rate an AAA, so it has become an excellent and good product. Later, the loans with bad credit were also sold out, so the bank began to sell the CDOs of CDOs, and only treated the CDOs as loans to restructure and package sales, circulating, circulating, and recycling.

A housing loan of 50 million may be followed by a billion or 2 billion derivative bonds.

This system has been going on for many years without problems, and it has created a situation where real estate is becoming more and more prosperous - because even people who don't have credit will be seriously examined, and they will be loaned out, so that everyone can buy a house.

However, at the bottom of the list, the creditless have no source of income in the first place, and are likely to default and cannot afford to pay their loans. When there are many defaults, the bottom bonds cannot be recovered, and then it spreads upwards like a virus, and the bonds above begin to destroy little by little, and finally the entire market collapses.

On the other hand, if the loan defaults, the house will be confiscated and auctioned by the bank, which increases the supply of housing in the market and drives down housing prices. As the number of people who had planned to repay their mortgages found that their housing prices had fallen to a lower baseline than their loans, they simply gave up on repaying their loans and houses. As a result, houses were confiscated, entered the housing market, and further depressed prices, and finally the housing bubble disappeared overnight, leaving countless people homeless.

Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because they had too many CDOs in their hands and too many guarantees for them.

Lance's explanation Ian reacted immediately, after all, he was the expert, Theo and Gawain also understood, but Ian asked first, "But, why didn't the bank notice?" Those investment banks didn't notice it either? ”

In other words, why are banks willing to lend to people who can't afford to pay it back? Why would an investment bank take over or guarantee a CDO with bad loans?

"Because the entrustment chain is too long, there are more than a dozen layers of separation between the person who makes the loan decision and the person who takes the risk, and the separation of responsibility and risk leads them to make wrong judgments." Lance struggled to organize more effective language, but found that things were not so simple, after all, it was not his specialty, he thought for a moment, "Let's put it this way, today I want to buy a villa in Napa Valley, but in fact I don't have a penny, I don't have a job, I don't have a property, so will someone give me a loan?" Yes, because the person who received me was just a small staff member at the bottom, in the current real estate boom, the bonds of the loan can be sold to other people, banks, investment banks, they are willing to take over, in other words, they can recover the money plus interest on the spot, and finally after the credit bankruptcy, they can't afford to repay the loan, and it has nothing to do with them at all. ”

Ian wanted to say something, but found that he was running out of words, and he was stunned, and his brain couldn't turn for a while, mainly because they had too much professional knowledge in their heads, and they were too confident in the current situation of real estate in the United States. Theo was the same, lost in thought, but it was Gawain who first asked, "What about the investment banks?" Why are they willing to vouch for CDOs with bad credit? Can't they find out? Don't you do market research? ”

Ian closed his eyes and shook his head with a wry smile, "Investment banks read data, although the interest rate is high, the default rate is very low, and the risk is naturally low. "The reason why the default rate is low is because the lender has created a floating interest rate in order to be able to successfully lend, and the interest rate for the first two years is very low, so it is naturally not easy to default, and when the interest rate increases, it will leave behind.

So, this has created a situation where the default rate is very low, and investment banks are willing to guarantee those CDOs with bad credit; Banks can transfer risk to investment banks, and at the same time can pull liquidity, they are not only willing to lend, but also take the initiative to support loans; As a result, those who have bad credit or even no credit can take out a loan to buy a house.

Ian let out a long breath, leaned back in his chair, and shook his head with a sigh, as if he couldn't believe that such a huge financial hole had been seen by Lance; And he couldn't seem to believe that what Lance said was probably the truth. For a time, there were mixed tastes.

Theo, who was sitting on the side, never spoke, thought for a long time, and raised his head, "So, you're asking us to be short." This is an affirmative, not an interrogative. (To be continued.) )