Chapter 14 The crisis advances
It is not a simple matter to change the statistical currency of assets, because this is not a cash change, but more of a change in asset statistics, which involves a complete liquidation of the assets under the name of Zhou You. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info
Zhou You made a complete count of all the assets under his name, and in addition to the necessary transaction currency, the cash was also turned into RMB and euro currencies. After the statistics of assets have an approximate data, these assets are exchanged into other currencies through bank collateral and stored in the corresponding accounts.
Since his trip to London, he has been busy with this matter, and the property in other countries is very simple, because it only needs to be counted according to the local currency, and the most troublesome thing is the dollar assets.
However, the dollar assets are the most traveled now.
Traveling around in London to sell a large number of dollars, and even to discount all dollar assets after passing the appraisal, the impact is too great.
On March 5, which is also the sixteenth day of the first lunar month, Zhou You officially announced the news in London, which immediately caused a sensation around the world. This time, the U.S. government moved quickly, and just four hours after Zhou's press conference in London, U.S. Treasury Department and White House spokesmen immediately responded to Zhouyou's decision.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury regretted Zhou You's decision, believing that the cost of discounting Zhou You's dollar assets through banks would far outweigh the losses caused by the depreciation of the dollar, but it respected Zhou You's decision.
At a regular press briefing, however, the White House spokesman talked about the friendship and cooperation between Zhou You and the United States. From the initial investment in Google, investment in Sands Group, to investment in Apple, investment in Facebook, including the exchange of shares in Walmart with shares in Tmall and Tencent. thinks that Zhou You's behavior is irrational, and hopes that Zhou You can change his decision.
Moreover, the next day, while Zhou You was still preparing his own team of actuaria, the U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom personally came to Zhou You's residence on Garden Street in Kensington Palace and met Zhou You.
It's a pity that Zhou You's main purpose in changing his dollar assets is not because he is disgusting with the United States, but because he refuses to pay for the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, so even the ambassador can't change Zhou You's decision.
After the ambassador returned in vain, Bush Jr. could not hold his breath and made a phone call from the United States. Of course, Bush Jr. will not directly persuade Zhou You to change his decision, but only asks Zhou You what the reason for doing so is.
For the most powerful president in the world, Zhou You, of course, gives three points of face. What's more, Zhou You has a good relationship with a group of old stubborn Republicans, and as long as it does not involve issues of stance and principle, they still take care of Zhou You's business in the United States.
Therefore, Zhou You talked about the irrationality of the economic structure of the United States after deindustrialization, from the soaring price of resources to the competitiveness of industrial products in the mainland. In terms of the economic structure, we talked about the danger of the US economy, and when the US economy was in danger, the depreciation of the dollar was of course a matter of course.
Anyway, after talking about a lot, Zhou You just didn't admit that he had the intention of leaving the United States and taking revenge on the United States. His industry has tens of billions of dollars in the United States, and he will divest it wherever he wants!
Among the dozens of US presidents, George W. Bush is the only one who has failed in IQ, and he does not know that he does not understand these questions that Zhou lobbied, in short, he has fooled the past.
Zhou You didn't know what Bush Jr. would do when he heard his words, and at this time, he couldn't think about it anymore, because London had become the center of world public opinion again, and he was surrounded by countless media.
Now, he can't go out at all, because the outside of the villa where he lives is jammed with media reporters from all over the world. Even if Zhou You doesn't accept interviews and doesn't go out, he always has to meet people, and everyone who comes to visit Zhou You will be concerned and harassed by them.
What's more, traveling around the world is now in the UK, not to give face to others, but also to give some face to the British government, and some people can't be ignored.
On 11 March, two accounting firms, a law firm, plus his own company's lawyer team and a financial team headed by Ma Hongtao began to go to the United States to make statistics on the American industry.
Although there are many assets in the United States, they are actually easy to calculate, because most of the industries exist in the form of shares. Santander Bank and HSBC are the main commercial banks that accept the foreign exchange discount, and their role is to value the calculated properties and discount these assets in the form of foreign exchange.
For example, if Zhou You now owns 5 percent of Wal-Mart's stock, and Wal-Mart's market value is now $220 billion, then Zhou You's 11 billion percent is $11 billion.
These shares are pledged to Santander, which will provide you with cash in euros. Of course, this money cannot be used at will, at least not in full.
The current euro to the dollar is 1:1.26, so the assets of Zhou Yu are hedged by the bank to 8.73 billion euros, and change with the rise of the stock price. Even if the dollar depreciates, this part of the assets traveling around the country will not decrease with the depreciation of the dollar, because at this time, the asset statistics are calculated in euros.
So, if the dollar depreciates, do the banks lose money?
Of course not, because each bank has its own department for the management of foreign exchange hedging. In fact, if the bank accepts the $11 billion asset hedging of the trip, then they will also carry out foreign exchange operations in the foreign exchange market in turn, buy the depreciation of the dollar, hedge this part of the assets of the trip, of course, the cost of the operation needs to be borne by the trip.
It is equivalent to saying that Zhou You subcontracted the work he should do to the banking department, and the bank did not have any risk and could charge fees. If the dollar depreciates, Zhou You will not lose anything by making a profit through the bank's operations, and of course, if the dollar appreciates and the euro depreciates, Zhou You's property will be lost.
However, with the memory of a past life, this possibility is non-existent.
So, does the depreciation of the dollar have a big impact on the United States? Of course, there are implications, but in the current economic environment, the benefits of a weaker dollar for the United States outweigh the disadvantages.
The United States now owes more and more money to the world, and the dollar is constantly depreciating, and they keep cutting interest rates, so that they don't have to pay back so much money. With the help of the slow but continuous depreciation of the dollar, the United States has shrunk the dollar held by various countries, passed on the pressure of its own balance of payments, and plundered the wealth of all countries again!
Secondly, there is also the benefit of causing global inflation to rise sharply, which is also a big factor affecting the growth of the world's economy. This kind of price rise has led to an increase in costs for developing countries in the mainland and even around the world, but most of the terminal pricing of products is controlled by developed countries in Europe and the United States. Costs have risen, but selling prices have not risen, resulting in lower profits in the production process. But in order to develop industry, you can't help but accept this kind of exploitation.
Therefore, the general trend is like this, and Zhou You is not worried that the United States will stick to the dollar exchange rate at all, and his own money is insignificant compared to the US dollar market.
However, with the travel initiative, people all over the world will keep a close eye on the dollar exchange rate, and countries will also implement various financial means in advance to protect their own interests, and the pressure on the United States to implement such a policy will be even greater.
Zhou You has made such a big mistake, and now the U.S. government is also suffering!
By the beginning of May, the assets of the people traveling in the United States had been discounted by the major commercial banks, and the value of the cash was hedged in the dollar in partly in the renminbi and most in the euro.
This has led to countless companies and companies doing the same, especially investment banks and funds with large amounts of cash in their hands, and they have large sums of money in their hands. This has created a huge headwind to the dollar's exchange rate, and if the dollar falls, these companies and funds will profit from it, and only the US government will lose, and if it does not depreciate, it will have no effect on anyone else.
It was also at this time that the two major real estate brokerage companies in the United States, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, issued announcements warning that defaults in the subprime mortgage industry in the United States had increased sharply, and the company would implement a higher level of credit tightening.
But at this time, no one has yet realized the seriousness of this crisis. The dollar exchange problem caused by the trip also put more pressure on the exchange rate of the dollar than it was in history, and more problems broke out before the time entered June.
Bear Stearns, the fifth-largest investment bank in the United States, released its quarterly report, saying that due to the weakness of the mortgage market, the company's quarterly profit fell by 15% from the same period last year, and the collapse of the fund, which was supposed to be exposed in August, happened two months ahead of schedule.
On June 2, Bear Stearns announced the collapse of two of its funds investing in subprime mortgage securitisation products, with investors collectively losing more than US$1.5 billion. Subsequently, Warren Spector, the company's co-president and co-chief operating officer, announced his resignation, and Alan Schwartz became the company's sole president.
Bear Stearns turned to the U.S. government for urgent help, hoping that it would help them through the difficult time. But before the U.S. government could act, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae erupted into an even bigger crisis.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, sponsored by the U.S. government, are specialized in the financial business to expand the flow of funds in the secondary housing consumer market. If it is in the mainland, this is a state-owned enterprise.
The status of these two companies also concerns countless American civilians, as more than half of American civilians have various connections to these two companies. They have a crisis that will affect the stability of society throughout the United States.
"Mr. Zhou, in recent times, the subprime mortgage default in the United States has exceeded 50 percent, and countless Americans have lost their homes because they can't pay their mortgages. In your opinion, what are the root causes of this crisis? ”
Sitting across from the tour was Warden, a BBC reporter and well-known British financial journalist and presenter, who was often known in the media for his criticism of the British government's policy toward the United States.
"Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 17 times in a row, raising the federal funds rate from 1 percent to more than 5 percent, and the sharp rise in interest rates has increased the burden on homebuyers. Moreover, since the second quarter of 2005, the U.S. housing market has begun to cool down significantly. As housing prices fall, it becomes difficult for buyers to sell their homes or obtain financing through mortgages. As a result, many borrowers in the subprime mortgage market were unable to repay their loans on time, and the crisis in the subprime mortgage market began to emerge and intensify. If the dollar had strengthened, then the crisis might have been avoided, but because the U.S. government owes huge sums of money to countless countries around the world, the depreciation of the dollar is inevitable, which is the main reason for the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. ”
"Is it because you saw this that you insisted on discounting your assets to euros three months ago?"
"The root of this crisis, so to speak, is that Americans have to pay for the lavish money of the past, and they need to share the burden of arrears with the world. However, I don't think I have to pay for the U.S. government as well, so ......" Zhou You shrugged.
Worden smiled and continued, "Do you think this credit crisis will have a big impact on the U.S. financial markets?" Does the crisis affect other levels? How should we respond to this crisis? ”
"The impact of this credit crisis on the U.S. financial market has been highlighted, Bear Stearns' fund collapsed, urgently seeking U.S. government assistance, credit defaults of two-housing companies have soared, bank dead accounts have soared, and more importantly, because the U.S. financial community has been issuing countless incomprehensible subprime financial products in the past, and the U.S. real estate market is still piling up the prosperity of the market with various financial products at a time when the U.S. real estate market has been weak, we can see that the impact will continue to intensify. And it will affect the United States, including all levels in Europe. I believe that European countries should take action to deal with this crisis as soon as possible. ”
As soon as the BBC's interview with Zhou You was broadcast, it immediately attracted the attention of the world's financial circles, but at this time, many countries and institutions still thought that Zhou You was a bit alarmist, and ridiculed Zhou You's praise of the US economy, believing that this was Zhou You's revenge for the United States to detain him.
Zhou You didn't care about these ridicules at all, he was busy calculating how much money he could earn from this crisis every day.
Because the major commercial banks have two-year hedging contracts for the assets of the tour, the dollar depreciates, and his dollar assets will continue to bring countless cash assets due to the hedging operation in the foreign exchange market.
From May to June, the dollar fell from 0.8 euros per dollar to 0.75 euros per dollar, which is equivalent to a profit of 0.05 euros per dollar.
The total assets of Zhou Zhou in the United States exceed 50 billion US dollars, including shares of Sands, UFC, Google, Apple, Tencent, Wal-Mart, Baidu and so on.
In this month alone, Zhou You's profit in the foreign exchange market exceeded 2.5 billion euros. Although he can't use the money until March 2009, the rise in book assets has also made this case a model of investment with a unique vision.