ReadX;?Line, a smartphone IM instant chat app with 25% coverage of Japan's population. The pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info launched by NHN-JAPAN.

Kakao-Talk, a smartphone IM instant chat app with 40% coverage of South Korea's population. Launched by NHN.

These two things will grow to three or four billion users in later generations.

They were all supposed to be launched in 2011. But now, because of the butterfly effect, it has advanced to 2009.

This is not surprising.

Because historically, whatapp and wechat were also launched in 2011.

Smartphone IM software is all the same thing. The information dissemination of the Internet industry is a matter of seconds all over the world, but whenever a new product appears in a certain country and a certain market, it is almost a matter of minutes to copy the core design idea in seconds.

So, first meeting, WeChat,.

As long as one of these five software appears on the earth, the other four will definitely fill the blank space of other fields on the earth like a chain reaction of atomic nuclei.

Life and death in the Internet world, second life, second death.

On this planet, there are probably hundreds of thousands of people every second, thinking about similar needs that are only a fraction of a centimeter apart. The intensity of its competition is far from being comparable to that of any other industry.

Moreover, the expansion is obviously not limited to Japan and South Korea. Due to the serious cultural invasion of Japanese and Korean cultures into weak countries in Southeast Asia in history, the performance of these two software in most parts of Southeast Asia is also better than at first sight.

At first sight, the only overseas market in Southeast Asia that can ensure its advantages may be only Indonesia, and the Filipino maid country with a weak advantage - this is mainly due to the fact that Hatsune has been operating operator relationships in these two countries since 07, selling low-end copycats to seize the communications market.

The Japanese line, which has always been friendly to Japan, in Thailand, Myanmar, and Malaysia, is undoubtedly a long-term drive, not only far better than the first meeting, but also better than the European and American chat software.

The Korean Kakao-talk is the absolute rule of Vietnamese, Lao, and Cambodian in Southeast Asia, which originated from the French colonial factions, plus Singapore.

As for Thailand, which has always maintained its sovereignty and independence in history, it is relatively open to the Internet products of China, Japan and South Korea.

In the Philippines, China and Japan are fighting, and there is nothing to do with the Koreans.

The MSN in Europe and the United States has long been in decline, and WhatsApp has not had time to take care of the Asian market. Skype, which Microsoft has inherited the mantle of MSN, also has the big problem of "unfriendly interface to smartphone app unskilled people", so it is also difficult to do so in Southeast and South Asia, where education levels are low.

Microsoft's stuff, the operation is not concise, the interface is not friendly, this is known for many years. They are accustomed to serving high-end netizens in Europe and the United States, and they don't know how to cater to computers and mobile phone whites, which is a fatal flaw.

All these combined factors have created the situation of the Three Kingdoms in the Asian mobile IM market.

By controlling NHN, Gu Mojie's "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" in the social field has been completely realized. It will be a circle of 2.5 billion people.

In addition, Hatsune was the first to invest in translation software, and it has maintained the world's leading technology to this day. At that time, Hatsune will be able to bring the function points of cross-border communication chat and real-time word translation output to a prominent position.

With "you can easily meet foreign friends with the first meeting chat" as the bait, most of the die-hard users who still insist on using WeChat chat because of the convenience of Fuji Xun's dating appointments are pulled to the first meeting.

And Fuji Xun's translation scum is so scummy, and Fuji Xun does not have machine learning, deep learning software and big data accumulation to optimize traditional machine translation, so once this move is played, Ma Huateng will not even have room to fight back.

Even if Ma Huateng is in a hurry and kneels down to beg Google technical support, so what?

The cultural superiority of the American "Celestial Empire" has long been destined for Google to accumulate enough big data between "translating other languages into English". But Google definitely doesn't understand the intricacies of Chinese, Japanese and Korean translations.

Perhaps, we can consider using technical means to use English as a medium to cross the bridge, and translate language A into English and then English into language B when processing. But that is bound to fragment sentences and grammar, enough to offset the improvement of translation results brought about by two years of deep learning.

In the field of cloud translation, two years of machine learning is enough to form a generational difference in performance.

Considering that the three countries of the South Asian subcontinent and the Pakistani railway system (i.e., Bangladesh, which includes 100 million5 million people) have a combined population of 1.7 billion, and that 1.7 billion people live at almost the same level of Internet penetration as China did in 2003 – out of 1.7 billion people, there are fewer than 20 million smartphones today.

Therefore, if Gu Mojie can seize the market of 2.5 billion people in East Asia and Southeast Asia, he will not lose to Zuckerberg's consolidation of the markets in Europe, North and South America, and Oceania after swallowing WhatsApp.

Africa should not exist, or only two or three of them should be qualified to exist. South Asia also does not exist, or is converted to 20 million smartphone people.

The remaining 5 billion people on the planet, Gu Mojie and Zuckerberg are divided in half.

But in the longer term, Zuckerberg doesn't have a gaming business, no hardware business. So a few years later, Gu Mojie still has the hope of attacking from other directions.

That's why he must get NHN this year while Zuckerberg is still focusing on collecting WhatsApp. The reason for crushing Fuji Xun.

One step at a time, one step at a time. If you miss the window, you will have to work many times harder in the future to achieve the same achievement.

……

The goal is easy to set, but it is difficult to implement.

For a giant like NHN, people with a little capital in the circle want to buy it, but the price is by no means imaginable to ordinary people.

Not to mention the huge cash flow required for the holding, it was by no means possible for any Internet company on the planet at that time to make up without external financing.

Even, the original major shareholder of the family did not plan to sell at all.

Taking a step back, despite the myriad difficulties of funding and intent to sell, there are still many administrative obstacles to controlling NHN Group.

The Ministry of Commerce of the South Koreans will first strictly investigate and set access restrictions.

The Ministry of Commerce has done it, and the Ministry of Culture -- people also have the right to censor the Internet social networking and public opinion sharing platforms of foreign investors.

In this respect, South Korea is the same as China. China's Ministry of Culture wanted to ban Warcraft, and if it wanted to ban Facebook, it could ban Facebook.

Because of such great difficulties, only a few people around Gu Mojie knew about Gu Mojie's long-term plans. And when I first heard about it, I was so shocked that I didn't want it.

And those who are not core enough are still in the dark.

This is a publicly traded company, and the portion of the divestible business that Gu Jie is eyeing alone had a market capitalization of $100 million in mid-2011 (stock price fluctuations).

NHN is the largest internet company in South Korea. Not only does it run an IM instant messaging software, but it also runs a search engine and gaming business, as well as some relatively inconspicuous small businesses.

To describe this company in a rough way, this is equivalent to South Korea's Baidu, plus South Korea's Fuji Xun.

Plus Japanese Fuji Xun.

Moreover, its business is in many countries in Southeast Asia, and its market share is very high.

In addition to the 30% of the outstanding shares that are freely traded on the stock market, the remaining 70% of the NHN Group's non-tradable shares are held by many chaebols and large investment institutions in South Korea. Including the five chaebols of SK Telecom and Samsung; There are also many large foreign Internet funds with U.S. channels, such as Sequoia and Al-Mafia.

Gu Mojie has been planning this matter since he and Zuckerberg signed their respective "non-aggression pact" at the beginning of the year.

He is good at breaking down big things and nibbling them away step by step.

To swallow NHN, this matter must be broken down into three or four big steps.

First of all, for the 30% of NHN's shares that are already in the tradable stock market, you can use Hatsune Network Technology's own funds to secretly raise funds for a few months to control a small half of it -- according to South Korea's securities law, as long as retail investors do not raise more than 15% of the company's total share capital, there is no need to make an announcement or file with the "Korea Securities Regulatory Commission".

So, everything can be done secretly until you have enough % of the equity.

The amount of money needed for this step is about 2 billion US dollars, or 14 billion yuan at the 2011 exchange rate.

This has drained all of Hatsune's flexible own funds available to the Hatsune Group in the first half of this year. With Gu Mojie's family business now, he does not issue bonds or sell shares, and this cash flow is his limit.

The second step is to announce the privatization attempt after the 15% shareholding is exceeded and make an indiscriminate offer to buy the shares.

At the same time, it is to submit to all walks of life for administrative approval.

In the end, we have to deal with most of the die-hard shareholders, as well as Hatsune's competitors.

Gu Mojie didn't know that in history, Teng Xun also spent a lot of money to absorb a considerable part of NHN's equity, just to control Kakao-talk, the "Korean version of WeChat".

Later, Teng Xun also relied on this investment to earn a valuation premium of about 4 times. That's all for later.

However, even if Gu Mojie didn't know this, he could fully imagine that with the current competition between Hatsune and Fuji Xun, as long as it was something Hatsune wanted to do, Fuji Xun would definitely fight desperately.

Ma Huateng's vision is not weak, maybe Teng Xun has bought a part of NHN shares in the circulation market, maybe it is just because Teng Xun holds a small proportion of equity, so there is no need to register with the "Securities Regulatory Commission".

But fortunately, in addition to money, Gu Mojie also has a few more chips in his hand than Ma Huateng, which gives him the confidence to force several American shareholders of NHN to submit and obediently trade with him.

For example, in the tide of the rise of a large wave of smartphone IM software, hundreds of millions of Snapchat have been invested.

In Silicon Valley, there are countless investment funds that have had a holiday with Facebook and want to get their hands on Snapchat, the only one in the Americas that can give Facebook some trouble.

And among them, there are quite a few institutions that have NHN shares in their hands. (To be continued.) )