After calculating with Gu Yong, when he came back from the May Day holiday, Gu Mojie focused on two things. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info

The first is to continue his plan to sell off the ban on shares. It's just that since it is suspected that someone is trying to absorb funds from the sidelines to influence the company's future decision-making, Gu Mojie's pace of selling should naturally be controlled and more tentative. For example, if the stock price falls, the order will not be released, and when the other party is forced to use a large buy order to suppress the disk, it will be released in an appropriate amount.

In this way, the other party's transaction price is naturally getting higher and higher, although it rises very slowly every time, but it is rising all the way. When Felilo's 5% was sold, the average transaction price was 37 yuan 9. By the time Lu Wenjun's 5% began to be thrown, the average price had climbed to 40 yuan, and the highest was even more than 41 yuan.

The second thing is to collect relevant information about that Jiang Gongzi: who is the other party? Where did you get so much money to acquire such a large proportion of Hatsune Entertainment's equity?

After all, if all the 15% shares of this round of lifting the ban are sold according to the current inflated current price of Hatsune Entertainment, then Jiang Gongzi will pay at least 40 billion in cash.

And the other party wants to snipe Gu Mojie's related party transactions, and the critical point threshold is 26%, so he must absorb at least 11% of the 15% of last year's IPO. Of course, the 11% transaction price cannot be at the high level of 40 yuan. But even if half of him is counted as 20 new shares last year, and half is slowly absorbed later, then the total price is estimated to be more than 20 billion.

In other words, 26% of the equity will use up 60 billion yuan.

6.18 Before the resumption of the IPO by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the hot money waiting for new shares in the Chinese stock market fluctuated between 2000~300 billion yuan. This also means that the mysterious Jiang Gongzi needs to have the energy of "one of the four parts of the world".

"Could it be that the other party has violated the rules in China for margin financing and securities lending?" This is the first suspicion after Gu Mojie and Gu Yongjiang combined. For this suspicion, Gu Mojie also used a lot of research resources to verify, and asked his most trusted Fei Liluo to personally take charge of the legal supervision of this area.

But soon, this suspicion was disproved. No one on the Shanghai Stock Exchange dared to do such a thing.

The so-called margin trading is to allow short buying and short selling. Financing is short buying, and securities lending is short selling. Those who have speculated in stocks in later generations are certainly no strangers to these concepts -- those behaviors of "speculating in stocks and increasing leverage" are all derived from margin trading.

To explain in layman's terms, before there was no margin trading system, if you had a principal of 100 yuan, you could only buy stocks for 100 yuan to speculate. After margin trading, you can add 5 times or 10 times leverage. With 100 yuan of capital, it is possible to buy 1,000 yuan of stocks, but when the stock falls by 10% from the purchase price, the brokerage that provides financing will force the liquidation, sell the stock, and confiscate all the 100 yuan margin.

Margin is a risk amplifier. Earn and earn more heartbeat, and lose more heartbeat.

This concept is very common in foreign countries, and it has long been played by financial capital. But in China, this is definitely a new concept that is still in the discussion and verification stage.

On June 30, 2006, this concept was first mentioned by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the "Administrative Measures for the Pilot Program of Margin Financing and Securities Lending of Securities Companies" was obtained. After nearly two years of deliberation by the State Council, it was not adopted until the end of April 2008.

However, there is still a long way to go between the adoption of the National People's Court and its actual implementation.

At the end of October 08, that is, the Bush administration has announced a $700 billion bailout, and China's $4 trillion bailout has not yet been introduced.

Without Gu Mojie's appearance, according to the original trajectory of history, the State Council would have delayed for more than a year, and it was not until January 2010 that it "agreed in principle to the pilot application of the CSRC". And in March 10, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange officially selected the first batch of domestic securities firms with margin financing and securities lending qualifications.

In other words, in history, "whether to release the gold-absorbing monster of margin financing and securities lending" has been repeatedly debated by various interest groups for 45 months.

Now, it is May 2009, and although the call for margin trading has been rising one after another, there are still 10 months before it can actually be legally implemented.

Therefore, what Gu Mojie and Gu Yong were worried about at the beginning was only that "some people use the platform that has been built up for margin financing and securities lending, not in the name of margin and securities lending, to carry out margin and securities lending transactions", and use other legal circumvention methods to borrow money to buy shares with special guarantees.

Margin trading in name to reality is not allowed to exist in China.

It's a pity that even if it is "under the banner of XXISM and following the road of XXISM", this kind of nameless margin financing and securities lending has still not been discovered.

……

May 16th, a Saturday.

There is still exactly a week before Michael Jackson's Hujiang concert, and Jackson himself has already arrived at Hujiang-Jackson's first stop in China.

In the next few days, the 80,000-person stadium is also about to be closed for Jackson to familiarize himself with the venue for rehearsals. Gu Mojie only went to pick up the scene on the first day of Jackson's arrival, and invited the other party to have a good meal, which was regarded as catching the wind and washing the dust. Since then, he has been busy with his own affairs, and he has no time to deal with each other.

Gu Mojie's second-phase unrestricted stock sell-off has also lasted for 7 trading days. The 5% of the unrestricted shares in Lu Wenjun's name have been sold off one after another, and there are still 3% left.

Some new situations have suddenly become clear.

Gu Mojie, Fei Liluo, and Gu Yong held a small meeting in the company urgently.

Feliro presented the latest findings with a grim expression.

"All the potential funding channels of domestic brokerages have been clarified, and there is no abnormal flow of crimes against the wind. For the rest, there are only two theoretical possibilities.

First, that is, this Jiang Gongzi can really raise enough funds of 60 billion yuan by himself, or by relying on traditional financial means such as simple mortgages - this is basically impossible, and the whole country has never heard of anyone with this energy.

Second, that guy secretly allocated funds outside the market with the help of overseas allocation power - I think this is especially likely. Although the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the central bank have always supervised the entry and exit of overseas hot money, the underground leverage of overseas capital allocation has never stopped. ”

Gu Mojie's eyebrows twisted into pimples, and he muttered for a long time, only holding back one sentence.

"Brother Yong, what do you think?"

"What else can I see?" General Gu Yong was also made to smile bitterly by Gu Mojie's words and deeds, and could only say self-deprecatingly, "I can only say that the possibility of tipping is decent." Historically, in all the kind of takeover wars that really want to grab control of the company, there are many tricks of using junk debt to increase leveraged financing.

Isn't that the most famous acquisition of the Reynolds-Nabiske company in the United States at that time was like this? A garbage company like KKR can take a risk and use the money of Milken, the junk debt king, to take over the Nabiske company.

However, in the midst of a global financial crisis, countries are scrambling for cash flow. Our domestic IPO storage window is so short, in such an environment, people who dare to gamble like this are really bold enough. ”

Gu Mojie raised his eyebrows: "You mean, they may not be able to bear the risk?" ”

Gu Yong calculated mentally and analyzed it in pieces: "Yes, this Jiang Gongzi may not be able to bear the risk of stock price fluctuations - if he expects to collect 26%~30% of the equity of Hatsune Entertainment around the stock price of 40 yuan, then his principal may only be enough to collect 5%, or even 3%.

For capital to enter China, it is impossible to have a leverage ratio of 50 times and 100 times, and 5 to 10 times is already the limit of national conditions. This leverage ratio means that if the stock price falls one or two more than the average purchase price after he completes the acquisition, he has the possibility of breaking. If he falls three times in a row, he may be forced to close his position and lose all his money. ”

"In other words, after sucking his money dry, if we are sure that our company's stock price will fall a few times in a row, we can kill him? So, if you put some scandal on Hatsune Entertainment and get some bad news, can you help achieve this goal? ”

"It's not that simple! What is the use of light to have a good and short message? If the outstanding shares are in his own hands, even if the news is bearish, the shareholders want to panic sell, and there is nothing to sell. ”

Gu Mojie was right when he thought about it.

Not all bad news will cause a stock to plummet.

Only when most of the stock chips are in the hands of retail investors will the negative news lead to a herd effect, and everyone will run for their lives, further collapsing the stock price.

But if the chips are in the hands of the dealer, especially the dealer who absolutely controls the situation, as long as he holds back and does not throw it, no matter how bad the outside is, it is useless.

Those who think that they can collapse the stock price by relying on some panic inside information can only appear in Xiaobaiwen.

If you want to suppress the stock price, you can only use the extra days to sell orders, together with the bad news.

Gu Mojie felt at a loss and could not decide on the next step.

"There's bad news, do you want to hear it?" Feliro waited for him to be quiet for a while, and then immediately came back to mend the knife.

"Say it, say it all at once." Gu Mojie scratched his head, having the illusion that lice don't itch.

"Judging from the trading volume data of the company's shares, from April 20, the scale of the sell-off began, and as of today, the cumulative trading volume has reached 1.1 billion shares in 21 trading days."

Gu Mojie didn't react for a while: "1.1 billion shares trading volume? What does this mean? ”

With a sense of professional solemnity, Fei Liluo said: "1.1 billion shares already account for 16.5% of the company's total share capital - that is, from the time we started to sell orders, until today. If the previous 21 days were all bought by a market maker, then his increase in holdings should have exceeded 15% of the company's total share capital.

According to the Securities Law, if a shareholder of a listed company holds 15% of the company's shares and continues to acquire outstanding shares, then he must go to the Shanghai Stock Exchange to publicize his identity as a 'new major shareholder'.

But now we don't see any signs or trends of new major shareholders being announced - this can only be explained by the fact that either there are indeed two forces vying for chips, so the equity is diluted; Either that Jiang Gongzi borrowed another shell and used the method of acting in concert to avoid publicity. ”

One of the points mentioned in Phillo's words relates to the Securities Law.

China's Securities Law does not allow the existence of such a thing as an "invisible major shareholder".

Even if you are a retail investor, as long as you hold more than 15% of a listed company, then you will get the public status of the Shanghai Stock Exchange/Shenzhen Stock Exchange. This is to be responsible for the right to know of all shareholders and prevent some market makers from making too big and too black.

"Is it possible that there are really two forces fighting for the chips?" For a moment, this beautiful fantasy burrowed into Gu Mojie's mind.

However, after calmly thinking about it, he immediately dispelled this kind of obscenity, and he didn't even have to ask Fei Liluo and Gu Yong to analyze it for him.

"It's impossible, if the two are grabbing the chips, the stock price trend in the early stage can't be like this, at least it will rise higher and more intensely."

Then, there is only one explanation: that Jiang Gongzi is more professional than he estimated at the beginning, more ruthless, and more daring to use means. (To be continued.) )