Chapter 728: The Truth That No One Can Say
The 2016 presidential election has not really begun, but Trump and Hillary Clinton have already fought, and these two guys are particularly interesting, they don't talk about the most important economic issues in the United States at this time, but the two sides are pouring dirty water and speping feces on each other, anyway, they don't do their jobs!
So why is this happening?
It's very simple, let's talk about Trump first, this guy himself doesn't have any very good policies, he's just one, isolationism, just play this well, and finally the economy ...... He's just raising tariffs, it's still isolationism, it's the same, it's nothing new. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info
After all, Trump is not a professional politician, and his experience in this area comes more from his corporate governance, but this guy is still a wonder, he is a company CEO who likes to contact with the media, and is not mainstream, to put it bluntly, he just doesn't do much in his own management.
So, Trump can't say anything, it's normal, but Hillary doesn't say it either, that's not normal, right?
But in fact, in Luo Yaoxiang's view, this is also a very, very normal thing, even if Hillary wants to say it, she must not say it!
There is no way to say about the current economy of the United States, or there is no way to do it at all!
Isn't that too much?
No, this is exactly the advice and theory given to him by Luo Yaoxiang and many economic experts behind him.
It's very simple, it's just a thing, QE can't stop!
QE is not a good thing, anyone knows that even if they really benefit from this policy, they feel uncomfortable, even if these guys are still getting high salaries, enjoying the benefits brought by high housing prices, and watching the price of stocks continue to grow, but they are still not steady.
But, how many years is QE now?
It's been 8 years, what is the concept of 8 years?
As far as an employee in the financial industry starts counting on the day he joins the company, when he is almost done, and then he can go to appreciation, it will definitely not take 8 years. To put it simply, the current financial market is distorted by QE, that is, printing money, and the entire financial practitioners, grassroots and middle-level, except for those individuals at the upper level, is such a personnel structure, most of the people do not know at all, if there is no QE, then how to conduct market transactions!
Because it has always been a transaction in the state of QE, everyone knows that this transaction is distorted, to put it bluntly, if you want to trade normally, everyone will not.
For example, the current bullish and bearish interpretation of the US stock market, which is completely opposite, simply put, when the data reported by the US statistical agency, when the data is not good, then what should be done?
This should have been bearish, but!
This is bulldo, now it is bulldo, because now it is the capital market, everything is copied by money, that is, the dollar printed more, and the US economic data is not good, so what will happen to the FED?
Print money, keep printing money!
So, there is more money, excuse me, how can this stock market fall?
So, isn't that what bulldo?
That is to say, the original negative will become bullish, because there will be financial policies to follow, and the original bullish will become negative, because as soon as you see the economy improving, you will not print money.
The market has been distorted to this extent, so if QE is over, will it still play?
And the most important thing is......
A lot of people don't understand what the real power of the FED is!
Back then, Greenspan, this old guy did a very interesting thing, that is, the thickness of his briefcase, which is often interpreted by many people, is a general concept, when Greenspan's briefcase is thicker...... Oh my God, the catastrophe is coming, and it is estimated that the bad news will be released, so the market falls.
And in fact...... This guy once stuffed his lunch box into it and scared the whole market!
This sounds like a joke, but in fact, it shows a lot of problems, that is, the power of FED, sometimes hidden, that is, when she contains it but does not release it, this is the most powerful.
So now, there is a very necessary means, and that is......
Yellen and the people in the various branches of the FED, they always reveal some news that they are going to raise interest rates, anyway, they are shouting that we are going to end QE, we are going to raise interest rates, but it is really time to vote...... Then it wouldn't be them!
Why?
In fact, it is to scare the market, to put it simply, the situation that Fed needs most now is the most second, that is, they do not raise interest rates, but achieve the effect of raising interest rates!
To put it simply, the Fed, the Federal Reserve, they just talk and run, but they don't really move, but they want the market to react, that is, to let the market fall!
Why is it falling?
The U.S. stock market has peaked, too high, and has been consolidating for too long, there is no amount of energy at all, it is very dangerous, once the interest rate is really raised, the stock market will collapse instantly.
In addition, the FED cannot raise interest rates, because the cost of this rate hike is really ......
Many people can't imagine where this cost is, and this matter is thanks to O'Barma!
Before Obama came to power, the debt of the United States was $10 trillion, which is the scale, but now, it has come to the scale of $19 trillion, so that is to say......
As long as the interest rate is raised by 1%, how much does it cost?
By the way, the U.S. government would need to pay an additional $190 billion in debt!
Now the United States is borrowing new debt to pay off the interest on old debt...... Attention, just interest, just interest.
To put it bluntly, the U.S. government will explode directly!
The Yankees, as well as Western economists, are spraying China's debt problem all day long, but in fact, the debt of the United States and Europe, that is simply ...... Our side is absolutely benign and very safe, and they are the ones who will not succeed!
And in addition, Yellen must not raise interest rates, because as long as she rises, then everything she carries, such as the stock market and other markets, will be ruined, in this case......
The Democratic Party can't elect the president!
The U.S. election is directly linked to the U.S. stock market, and if there is a sharp drop in the stock market, the U.S. will inevitably have to change political parties.
In any case, Yellen must hold out until after the election, and she must not do anything before that......
So Trump this guy ......
"If I am elected president of the United States, my first job will be to fire Yellen!" This big mouth really dares to shout!
So, can the FED achieve Yellen's goal, which is not to actually raise interest rates, but to let financial markets fall?
"Our Bank of Japan keeps negative interest rates unchanged!" Haruhiko Kuroda once shouted, as if a samurai was going to seppuku!
Yes, Japan has already entered negative interest rates, and in fact, Japan's real interest rates have been negative for a long time, otherwise there would not have been that perfect carry trade.
And now, a particularly interesting situation has emerged, the FED side hopes that it will not raise interest rates, but the financial market is falling, but because the Japanese side wants to work its own, it is out anyway, and it is all negative, right?
So, in this market, will there be a shortage of money?
The yen is also in the SDR, and because the yen has that kind of arbitrage trade with the dollar, it can even be seen that the yen is directly linked to the dollar, so the Japanese side is like a kamikaze, and they continue to print money without their lives, and so on......
Well, the Japanese are also very powerful, they are fighting against their master, the Yankees!
Didn't you take advantage of us in Japan?
That's good, and I won't let you Yankees have a good time!
That's right, this is such a situation, no matter how much the FED scares the market, even if Greenspan comes out of the mountain and then gets his briefcase, it is useless, because Japan will desperately wipe out all the efforts of the FED!
And Japan's purpose is one, that is, CPI, 2%, and this purpose needs a appearance, the yen falls, it is better to fall sharply, so that the Japanese stock market can still be maintained, but ......
That's right, that arbitrage trade is still going on!
US dollar 3-month libor, yen 3-month libor, basis swap, and finally to the yen's treasury bonds, although the yen treasury bonds are already negative, but it doesn't matter, because libor is now higher and the basis is larger.
The current situation is 88 bps and 93 bps, anyway, it is more profitable......
So, all of these things come together and it's all ......
It's a loop, an endless loop, and it can't be solved at all!
As a result, there is another good show, Brexit!
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