June 23, 2015

After the big fall rebound, it is to go or stay

Today, the Shanghai Composite rose 98.13, up 2.19%, with an amplitude of 6.99% throughout the day, and Chongbai rose 2.67%, up 0.99 yuan.

confirms the saying: the market is born in despair.

Many investors may begin to think in their hearts: will the market fall in the future? Do you want to go or stay?

Generally speaking, the stock market can only stop falling after two rounds of decline, but because it is currently falling sharply, the probability of deducing a V-shaped reversal is still relatively large.

But in any case, whether the market will fall or rise in the future is a question in front of our Xiaosan, and it is also an absolutely difficult question to answer.

Personally, I think that whether to go or stay depends on individual stocks. Some stocks may trade sideways at a sub-high for the next few months before returning to their long downward journey.

Because, after this round of risk education, investors will be afraid of leveraged funds. Coupled with macroeconomic control, leveraged funds will be greatly reduced in the stock market, and the inflow of funds into the stock market will be greatly reduced, and the volume of divine trading in the first half of the year may no longer be there. This may cause the stock market to churn up and down, and the good market may no longer be happy, and the second half of the year is more likely to be a "structural" bull market. (Haha, in fact, I have been confused about the so-called structural bull market, which may mean that some individual stocks may still go through the main upward wave market.) Many individual stocks may not reach new highs, and the current highs of many individual stocks are likely to be a mountain peak for several years to come, until the next round of bull market comes, and I hope you don't become a miserable mountain watchman, staying alone for a decade or more.

So how can you tell if your individual stock may be on the mountain?

Technically, it is difficult to say one, two, three, because there are too many factors to consider in technical judgment, and a comprehensive analysis must be carried out according to the situation of individual stocks.

Generally speaking, if it has increased more than seven times or even more than ten times since the rise from the bottom, and it is still on the cusp of the theme, the media bragged about how good the stock will be in the future, be more careful, rather make less money, leave this profit to others, and try to have peace of mind, don't be superstitious about how its future is, here, tell you a story.

The convenience brought by network technology to everyone is deeply felt, the network has brought great changes to people's lives, and nowadays, the network is no longer a concept, but has really become an inseparable part of our lives.

However, in 1999, network technology was a concept, with the hot speculation of American Internet stocks, a share appeared a mythical stock of Internet stocks: Yi'an Technology, the share price started from 7.55 yuan, after more than a year, was pulled up to a sky-high price of 126.31 yuan, its business scope involves digital technology, network engineering, biological engineering, electronic communications, electric vehicles, new energy and nanotechnology, etc., almost the global high-tech concept of the year. It seems to prop up China's high-tech future.

Let's take a look again, more than ten years have passed, and every field he has been involved in has profoundly changed people's lives, but this leader in the A-share stock price performance has not become bigger and stronger because of the capital market, let alone made any products related to future technology, but soon after, it was found that malicious manipulation of stock prices, and many retail investors lost their money.

This omnipotent Internet stock in 2005 became an investment company, the stock price from more than 2 to more than 20, now renamed God Universe high-speed rail, from technology stocks to high-speed rail stocks, and hot high-speed rail stocks, you can imagine what kind of situation will be after the resumption of trading.

Although today's laws and regulations are gradually standardized, the myth of A-shares has not become extinct because of this, and many individual stocks just continue to interpret the myth in A-shares in a different way.

When the "Director of the Securities Regulatory Commission is in charge of refinancing review or insider trading" broke out, I couldn't help but be chilled, such people dominate the market, so what kind of market should it be? Who will protect the rights and interests of investors?

Therefore, in this market, don't expect others to save you, only you can save you, at any time, don't blame others, blame yourself, because from the first day you stepped here, you silently accepted all the rules here, which is also the premise of your stepping here.

Why are there so many stocks in A-shares that have become bigger and stronger, but the company has not become bigger and stronger, why are there not a few companies in A-shares like Tencent, Sohu, Baidu, Alibaba, etc., that are really bigger and stronger?

Therefore, if there is a stock that has multiplied N times, is still boasting about its bright future, and is full of advertisements on its theme, you should stay away.

Of course, if you are a short-term master, just when I didn't say this nonsense, if you can take a bite and eat with relish, I congratulate you! Because this is the market where the strong survive, and the meat of the weak will become a delicacy in the mouths of the strong. It can take chestnuts from the fire, it is a game that can only be played by the strongest of the strong!