Chapter 2004: The Road to Iran
(One more arrives)
People, always on their own?
Ahmadinejad, who was extremely shocked in his heart, suddenly fell into a trance.
For any successful politician, the phrase "people always have to rely on themselves" will always be the wise saying they believe, alongside the two sentences "there is no free lunch in the world" and "there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only eternal interests".
Ahmadinejad's ability to become the president of Iran and his success in maneuvering Iran under the huge international pressure of the United States under the current complicated relationship with the United States, maintaining the relationship between Iran and the United States on the brink of war but not war, and successfully promoting the development of Iran's nuclear weapons, is enough to prove Ahmadinejad's political skill...... Doesn't all this prove that I have been appraising the belief that "people always have to rely on themselves"?
Ahmadinejad, who has recognized Will's political skills, can't help but feel very useful for Will's faint appreciation of himself.
It was just when Ahmadinejad's appreciation of Will was very useful and his perception of Will was getting better and better, that Will's words changed abruptly, "But Mr. President, with all due respect, you are in an awkward position for Iran at the moment. β
"Oh?" Ahmadinejad was stunned again, "Awkward? How do you say that? β
"It's very simple, for you, it's not surrender now, and it's not war." Will said lightly, but his words were to the point
Will's words, in an indifferent tone, could be heard in the ears of Ahmadinejad and his secretary, but they were like thunder, and the heads of the two people were buzzing, how could he see that Iran is now at war or not, and if it is not at war? How could he know?
The reason why Iran has been able to wrestle with the Americans on the nuclear issue in the international arena, but has never really taken that step, in addition to the reasons just mentioned by Will, the most important point is that the core layer of Iran is emollient for Iran, this war, whether to fight or not
Will didn't seem to see the change in the expressions of Ahmadinejad and his secretary, and still said to himself, "Actually, this can be traced back to the history of your Iran: Persia, historically speaking, the Persian nation is a warlike and difficult to conquer nation, and this national character determines that its leaders cannot easily bow to external forces, because easily admitting defeat to external forces may make the people look down on them, and thus lose their prestige and leadership." From this point of analysis, the Iranian leadership will certainly not capitulate on this issue. I believe that Mr. President will not have any doubts about this, right? Quite a few words"
Ahmadinejad nodded, and had to admit that what Will said was right, in fact, when he thought of Iran's foreign policy towards the United States, Ahmadinejad's heart was a little astringent: if it were not for the national character of the Persian nation that determined Iran's attitude on this matter, he would undoubtedly have much more room for maneuver in this matter.
When Ahmadinejad came back to his senses, he listened to Will continue, "I believe that all the leaders of Iran can understand that in the matter of the Iranian nuclear crisis, if neither the United States nor the European Union can find a step for the Iranian leaders to make decent concessions, this problem will not be solved." But the problem is that the United States and the European Union are very adamant that Iran will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. If the United States and the European Union do not budge, there is only one way to go. And the problem is that the war is not easy to fight, specifically for the Iranians......" Will paused, his tone was flat, but the meaning of his words was extremely sharp, "The Iranians can't even fight the Iraqis, can they beat the United States?" β
Yes, Iran can't even fight Iraq, let alone the United States, which defeated Iraq in the Gulf War and has no power to fight back? Will's remark firmly poked at the biggest problem in Iran's current response to the nuclear crisis: Compared with the United States and the European Union, the combat effectiveness of the Iranian army is really embarrassing, and the most reluctant thing for Iranian leaders to start a war is that compared with the United States and the European Union, the combat effectiveness of the Iranian army is at least one generation different from that of the European Union and the United States
Anyone already understands that with the tremendous changes that have taken place in the mode of warfare of the military powers represented by the United States, the current war situation in the world has undergone earth-shaking changes, and high-tech data buses, satellites, and precision-guided weapons have replaced the previous large-scale tank cluster charges and carpet bombing of thousands of artillery. The situation of the war between the two countries has evolved from a fist-to-flesh boxing between two boxers to a battle between two assassins armed with peerless blades. β¦,
In a war between boxers, if you punch me, I punch you, and if you are punched by your opponent, it won't be a big deal, but if you are stabbed by an assassin with a sharp blade, then there is no doubt that this little life is basically difficult to protect.
It is precisely because of this that no matter how much he builds momentum at home, Ahmadinejad does not dare to start a war with the United States, and for a while, Ahmadinejad was silent.
Will's words didn't end there.
"Therefore, neither Mr. President nor the Iranians will be easy to talk about war. Although Iran claims to have prepared 7 million militias, it is also a faΓ§ade to boost morale and popular sentiment when propagandizing. Mr. President is very clear that the situation of modern warfare has undergone tremendous changes from ancient warfare and even the war situation of 30 years ago, and modern warfare has moved towards high-tech warfare, the role of ordinary soldiers has been greatly reduced, and the tactics of crowds cannot play a major role, as long as it is not hand-to-hand combat, there is not much difference between 7 million and 700,000...... Obviously, however, in the face of their own possession of all kinds of advanced high-tech weapons of mass destruction, the Americans generally do not choose hand-to-hand combat now, and I believe that Mr. President will not have any doubts about this. β
The secretary was obviously a little unconvinced by Will's words, but he opened his mouth, but he couldn't say anything.
What else can be said? Everything he wanted to say was said by Mr. Weir, who had a mysterious origin, and even the secretary originally planned to say that "Iran has prepared 7 million militias", which was the most proud thing for Iran, but when Will said this, not to mention President Ahmadinejad, even the secretary felt that he had no face to mention this topic again.
Yes, in the face of US high-precision cruise missiles, precision-guided bombs, stealth planes, large strategic bombers, and fourth-generation fighters, the 7 million Iranian militiamen armed with traditional guns and artillery, and at most some tanks and armored vehicles, can only be regarded as live targets for US high-tech weapons...... Send 7 million good Iranian boys to the cemetery like this? No matter how cold-blooded the secretary was, and how much he regarded the lives of soldiers as a group of cold numbers, he couldn't do it.
There is no doubt that even if even the 7 million Iranian backbones die even a third, it is a huge loss that the entire Iran cannot bear, and it will take at least more than ten years to recover
"Now that you have seen the situation between Iran and the United States so clearly," Ahmadinejad said, after taking a deep breath, "then, Mr. Weir, how many more paths are there between Iran and the United States?" β
That's right, don't look at the current Iran making a lot of trouble in the international community, but Ahmadinejad actually knows very well that there are really few ways out in front of Iran, and what is even more sad is that these roads in front of Iran are not even up to Iran itself, which is really too ......
"With all due respect, in fact, the root cause of the final solution to the Iranian nuclear issue is still in the United States," Will smiled and said, "At present, it seems that the Bush administration has only four options for the Iranian nuclear issue." β
Well? There are actually four roads? Ahmadinejad's eyes lit up suddenly, in their calculations, there were actually only three paths, so this extra one......
Thinking of this, Ahmadinejad's heart was once again filled with anticipation for what Will was going to say next.
"The first way is to accept the diplomatic mediation of Britain, France and Germany, although Iran has rejected the proposal of the three countries at present, but there is great hope of returning to the negotiating table, as for what should be done next after returning to the negotiating table, that is another matter;"
Ahmadinejad nodded, Will was right, and this road is actually the road that Iran wants to take the most, and it is also the best road for Iran. Don't look at how much Iran has been making a fuss in recent times, but in reality, all this is just to get on this path.
"The second way is to submit the issue to the Security Council in an attempt to impose sanctions on Iran after the trilateral negotiations have failed.
Ahmadinejad nodded again, saying that over the years, the friendly and cooperative relations between China and Iran have been deepening, and China has major potential strategic interests in Iran. In particular, on October 28, 2004, China and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in Beijing on the development project of the Yadavaran oilfield in Iran, and Sinopec is responsible for the future development plan of the Yadavalan oilfield. China will buy 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year from Iran for the next 25 years, with a total value of $100 billion. β¦,
In December 2005, the two countries reopened talks on this huge energy cooperation agreement. Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Hadi Nejad Hossenian said the two countries are expected to sign a final contract to develop the Yadavaran field in January 2006, and that China's $100 billion oil and gas import agreement from Iran is also expected to be implemented.
On January 26, Iran's chief negotiator on the nuclear issue, Ali Larijani, arrived in Beijing after a visit to Moscow and held talks with Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan. After the explanations of the talks, Kong Quan, then spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a press conference that day that China advocates a solution through peaceful negotiations and supports Russia's proposal. Larijani also said at a press conference in Beijing on the evening of the 26th that the positions of the two countries are very close.
After the defeat of the EU-3 led efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue by a moderate means, the United States, which advocates a harder line, will play a more important role, and may even dominate the Iranian nuclear issue.
As energy security becomes an important and sensitive zone between the two major powers in the future, China faces the complex issue of safeguarding its own energy and geostrategic interests while taking into account the relationship between China and the United States and China and Europe.
As a result, China's Middle East policy, and its entire energy security policy, faces serious challenges, and China must support Iran on the Iranian nuclear issue, even if it is to protect its own interests. After all, China has huge interests in Iran, and as one of the five permanent members of the United Nations, if China is unable to protect its overseas interests, it will be a huge weakening of China's international image.
"The third is the prosthetic Israel, which carries out targeted killings of Iran's nuclear facilities. Bush made it clear on 17 August that "the United States supports Israel in safeguarding its territorial security, and the United States will provide support to Israel once Israel's security is threatened." When it comes to Iran's nuclear program, Israel is the most concerned. Of course, Israel once preemptively destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactors, and with Iran, Israel will do the same. Moreover, Iran once threatened to erase Israel from the map; β
"Fourth, it is necessary to carry out direct air strikes, carry out destructive bombing against Iran, and use the method of dealing with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to deal with Iran, which is the most likely way for the United States to strike. There is still a long way to go from the first step to the fourth step, and it is estimated that this step will not be achieved by the end of 2008. β
Ahmadinejad's heart was gloomy when he heard this, but he also breathed a sigh of relief, if it is really possible to do what Mr. Will said, at least until 2008, there will be no war between Iran and the United States, then there will be much more room for Iran to maneuver.
"But now, Iran has a fifth way to go." Speaking of this, Will smiled mysteriously, "Alright, Mr. President, the gift I brought you has arrived." β
What the? Arrived? But where is the 250-ton plane? Ahmadinejad couldn't help but be stunned.
At the beginning, when Will said this, although Ahmadinejad allowed it, he also hinted to the secretary to let the domestic air defense system closely monitor all directions, one is not very convinced that this Mr. Will can really do this, on the other hand, it can be regarded as a test for Will, if he can really do this, then Iran's future choice, the room is much broader......