June 17, 2015

The odds of winning a bet

Today's market fell from nearly 120 points to more than 80 points, and Chongbai closed down 9 cents, with an amplitude of 9.48% throughout the day, and I bought at 41.10 yuan and 40.21 yuan respectively.

Some people say that my method is a bear market operation, and I want to explain that it is better not to operate in a bear market, because the winning rate of a bear market is extremely low and the bottom is unfathomable.

There are two reasons why I dare to so-called dipping.

Reason 1: I do each stock has a short tracking period of a few months, a long number of years, such as Chongqing Department Store, before and after tracking to do, there is nearly two years, there is a certain understanding of the stock stock, and there is a certain profit as the basis, so, every time the operation will not have too many profit concerns, I always say to myself, just make less money. Maybe it's better to have a better mentality.

Reason 2: I do stocks, what I value is the tipping point of the stock, I think the stock should rise sharply, will be heavily involved, of course, if the judgment is wrong, I will fight and retreat, looking for the next opportunity.

Because I have been doing stocks for a long time and am currently in a bull market, I am still relatively bold and dare to buy the bottom, and I think this kind of winning rate is relatively large.

You may have read the article I wrote last Saturday, judging that the current market is near the head, which is also the reason why I retreated from other stocks on a large scale.

In just two days, Chongbai hit my position increase point and margin call point successively, and just operated according to the plan.

I don't know if this stock will rise or fall tomorrow, I know very well that behind this stock stands a powerful man, he must not be matched by our Xiaosan, the only thing to do, I am trying to be friends with this great man, in order to exchange my diligence and sincerity for my own share of profits.

At each node, I am always calculating the probability of winning, and my trading system is my calculator, sometimes I make mistakes, I admit my mistakes and am willing to suffer the losses caused by them.

Of course, I just want to be right 60% of the time when calculating, so that I have a 60% probability of surviving in the stock market and reaping my share of profits.

Warren Buffett once said: know that when you play poker, there is always one person who will be unlucky, and if you look around and can't see who is going to be unlucky, it is yourself.

To see if someone else is unlucky, you first need to know your own hand and whether you can play the right card at the most critical time, because playing this card at this time will help improve your winning chances.